SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Smores]

I'm surprised we've not heard more around a cyclical lockdown rather than a constant lessened lockdown.

Would it not give people the space to mentally recharge whilst also interrupting the chain of transmission.

 

[UncleBob]

The amount of faith that some seem to have in Sweden is, in my opinion, somewhat bizarre. The fact that they are still struggling with a large lag in reported deaths is in itself a worry, and their efforts to protect the elderly has failed miserably.

The rest of it depends on the final outcome, which will be the number of total deaths. Given the lack of testing, it's difficult to state with any certainty where they are currently at.

 

[arnie_ni]

Germany is reopening museums, zoos, botanical gardens, exhibitions, churches, memorial sites and playgrounds. A concept for schools and daycare centres is to be announced next week. That leaves restaurants for whom the Whit weekend at the end of May is being discussed as a possible date for reopening.

No mention of pubs?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

No mention of pubs?

We don't really have a 'pub' culture. Many bars are open already offering take-away drinks but personally I don't think they'll be opening fully anytime soon. All the talk has been about restaurants and beer gardens.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

Apparently today's hospital death figure for the whole UK:

473.

Another reduction of 100 or so from yesterday, and around 150 less than this time last week.

This is pretty good news.

No mention of care home figures, though. I'm guessing that will get tagged on at 5pm when it's time for the briefing?

 

[do.ob]

I'm surprised we've not heard more around a cyclical lockdown rather than a constant lessened lockdown.

Would it not give people the space to mentally recharge whilst also interrupting the chain of transmission.

Lockdowns aren't a switch that turns the virus on and off. The UK has been over a month into their lockdown and they are still posting daily deaths deep into the hundreds. It would be an extremely slippery slope and drastic measures would probably have to be introduced based on very early warning signs. I don't think that would be feasible. Once you remove measures it will be a lot harder to introduce them again and when you tell polticians and the public "well, hospitals are still empty, we don't really record a significant number of deaths, but we have had a worrying uptick in our random testing sample, so we have to introduce strict measures again" they won't accept it and even if they do the first time and it works out they'll call you a scare-monger, because nothing happened and ignore you the next time.
Gradually easing measures one step at a time in order to find an equilibrium where we can coexist with the virus until a cure or vaccine is found sounds like a more realistic approach to me. And even in this case it seems like people are really quick to get careless again and think one easement of restrictions means things are good now and other measures will (have to) be dropped quickly as well.

 

[Brownie85]

Apparently today's hospital death figure for the whole UK:

473.

Another reduction of 100 or so from yesterday, and around 150 less than this time last week.

This is pretty good news.

No mention of care home figures, though. I'm guessing that will get tagged on at 5pm when it's time for the briefing?

Where do these figures come from?
I mean, the DHSC haven't printed the figures yet, so are these from a source or what not? Ive always wondered how some places get the figures sometimes quite a bit before they're printed (sometimes right, sometimes wrong)

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

Where do these figures come from?
I mean, the DHSC haven't printed the figures yet, so are these from a source or what not? Ive always wondered how some places get the figures sometimes quite a bit before they're printed (sometimes right, sometimes wrong)

They were on the timeline for (I know) The Mirror but they were on something similar yesterday and were accurate give or take a few. No idea where they get them from agreed. We'll get a more official number within the hour surely.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. 546 deaths announced today, 232 fewer than this time last week. Decline seems to be pretty steady.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:

Spoiler: Graph

Updated graph of hospital deaths in England by day of death. 391 deaths reported today, 54 fewer than yesterday and 123 fewer than this time last week. Represents quite the consistent drop.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:

Spoiler: graph

Data source for @Brownie85: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Now the WHO is lauding Sweden as a "model" for countries going forward. It really seems like one can ask four experts and get five differents opinions at the moment.

 

[Brownie85]

They were on the timeline for (I know) The Mirror but they were on something similar yesterday and were accurate give or take a few. No idea where they get them from agreed. We'll get a more official number within the hour surely.

I saw the same, and wondered where they got them from, as they haven't been officially printed yet. Then the Daily Fail followed suit and printed the same ones saying that they'll likely rise when the DHSC releases the official figures later + Care/Community deaths.

Again, as i say, they should now move to weekly deaths rather than daily. It's great seeing them drop, but when you get the odd spike up, which will likely happen, it's deflating

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

Updated graph of hospital deaths in England by day of death. 391 deaths reported today, 54 fewer than yesterday and 123 fewer than this time last week. Represents quite the consistent drop.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:

Spoiler: graph

Right, so the figure I posted of 473 is probably accurate, then, when you add on Scotland, Wales and NI. Give or take a couple.

I read that last Thursday was 602, so we're looking at a solid reduction of 100-150 per day each day this week (Tuesday was around 200-250 I believe) compared to the same day last week.

This is very encouraging. If they add on care home deaths at 5pm, it'll climb by a couple of hundred no doubt. But I'm focusing on the situation in our hospitals which is visibly improving week to week.

 

[horsechoker]

seen this a few times on FB

Why don't we just inject soap into our bodies?

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

I saw the same, and wondered where they got them from, as they haven't been officially printed yet. Then the Daily Fail followed suit and printed the same ones saying that they'll likely rise when the DHSC releases the official figures later + Care/Community deaths.

Again, as i say, they should now move to weekly deaths rather than daily. It's great seeing them drop, but when you get the odd spike up, which will likely happen, it's deflating

Ekkie's reliable data confirms 391 for England, so the 473 is likely to be correct, thankfully.

I'm guessing like all other 'scoops', people working at the DHSC or similar are selling stories.

We're not seeing the spike at the moment, which is why I'm remaining positive. Every day this week we've been 100-150 better off than the same day the week before; 200-250 on Tuesday, which is huge. It's the additional care home deaths that are going to create the spike it seems, which is understandable and of course, sad news.

 

[Brownie85]

Updated graph of hospital deaths in England by day of death. 391 deaths reported today, 54 fewer than yesterday and 123 fewer than this time last week. Represents quite the consistent drop.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:

Spoiler: graph

Data source for @Brownie85: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Now that is the kind of source information i like.

Heres hoping we see a continuing downwards trend.

 

[Smores]

Lockdowns aren't a switch that turns the virus on and off. The UK has been over a month into their lockdown and they are still posting daily deaths deep into the hundreds. It would be an extremely slippery slope and drastic measures would probably have to be introduced based on very early warning signs. I don't think that would be feasible. Once you remove measures it will be a lot harder to introduce them again and when you tell polticians and the public "well, hospitals are still empty, we don't really record a significant number of deaths, but we have had a worrying uptick in our random testing sample, so we have to introduce strict measures again" they won't accept it and even if they do the first time and it works out they'll call you a scare-monger, because nothing happened and ignore you the next time.
Gradually easing measures one step at a time in order to find an equilibrium where we can coexist with the virus until a cure or vaccine is found sounds like a more realistic approach to me. And even in this case it seems like people are really quick to get careless again and think one easement of restrictions means things are good now and other measures will (have to be) dropped quickly as well.

Perhaps it's a question of perspective because i see a second wave as inevitable in the UK. It might be a couple of months but i don't foresee us keeping it sufficiently level so you're going to end up needing a lockdown anyway.

I'd personally expect people to react worse to another lockdown akin to this one than saying up front we'll lockdown again in N months for N days if these set of assumptions prove true.

It also sets a message that this isn't over which i think isn't hitting home right now.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Another embarassment for WHO, who posted Chinese draft on failure of Remdesivir.

Although it's not a cure but it certainly a step in that direction.

Publishing all studies is how it should work.

Only publishing successes is how you create very big problems.

 

[Sir Matt]

China, while attempting to exert soft power, has delivered shoddy equipment and tests to various countries in Europe.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I do wonder what's going on in England at the moment. I'm back in work helping to get ready for opening up again. We are considered key workers so are allowed to. It seems that lockdown is pretty much over where I am in Manchester. Whilst I've been out I've seen about 15 people outside a house celebrating a 40th. I've seen countless tradesmen working at peoples houses. The roads and streets are getting fairly busy again. The lockdown has always been light touch but it now seems that people are just abandoning it and are unchallenged when they do so, despite what the government are saying.

 

[Utdstar01]

I do wonder what's going on in England at the moment. I'm back in work helping to get ready for opening up again. We are considered key workers so are allowed to. It seems that lockdown is pretty much over where I am in Manchester. Whilst I've been out I've seen about 15 people outside a house celebrating a 40th. I've seen countless tradesmen working at peoples houses. The roads and streets are getting fairly busy again. The lockdown has always been light touch but it now seems that people are just abandoning it and are unchallenged when they do so, despite what the government are saying.

There will be another peak at this rate, no doubt.

 

[fergieisold]

I do wonder what's going on in England at the moment. I'm back in work helping to get ready for opening up again. We are considered key workers so are allowed to. It seems that lockdown is pretty much over where I am in Manchester. Whilst I've been out I've seen about 15 people outside a house celebrating a 40th. I've seen countless tradesmen working at peoples houses. The roads and streets are getting fairly busy again. The lockdown has always been light touch but it now seems that people are just abandoning it and are unchallenged when they do so, despite what the government are saying.

Even out here in saddleworth things seem rather busy again. Plenty of activity. Need to stick with it a bit longer, cases in Oldham and Manchester I think have been falling very nicely?

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

I do wonder what's going on in England at the moment. I'm back in work helping to get ready for opening up again. We are considered key workers so are allowed to. It seems that lockdown is pretty much over where I am in Manchester. Whilst I've been out I've seen about 15 people outside a house celebrating a 40th. I've seen countless tradesmen working at peoples houses. The roads and streets are getting fairly busy again. The lockdown has always been light touch but it now seems that people are just abandoning it and are unchallenged when they do so, despite what the government are saying.

Yeah, people have stopped caring as much because nobody is being thrown any kind of lifeline. As long as the government continue to string society along without giving potential dates and timelines (which is what every country in Europe has been doing remember, even those that have been dreadfully hit), people will continue to stray from the path.

This is a two-way dance, people will not let their lives disintegrate indefinitely with no government input. These repettitive daily briefings are no longer doing the trick, the majority of us know that lockdown isn't ending on May 7th but its time they showed leadership and understanding and started giving us rough dates and time-frames. Show us a plan, and perhaps people will stick with it.

The narrative has emerged that this government fumbled their way into lockdown and made a fecking sham of it in the process. The narrative emerging is that they are doing the exact same fumbling towards exiting lockdown and a lot of people have probably given up on following their orders.

 

[TMDaines]

China, while attempting to exert soft power, has delivered shoddy equipment and tests to various countries in Europe.

Just came here to post this. Would be nice if someone, anyone, who has a question slot at the briefing today could grill them on this.

 

[antsmithmk]

I do wonder what's going on in England at the moment. I'm back in work helping to get ready for opening up again. We are considered key workers so are allowed to. It seems that lockdown is pretty much over where I am in Manchester. Whilst I've been out I've seen about 15 people outside a house celebrating a 40th. I've seen countless tradesmen working at peoples houses. The roads and streets are getting fairly busy again. The lockdown has always been light touch but it now seems that people are just abandoning it and are unchallenged when they do so, despite what the government are saying.

I live in Milton Keynes. Its exactly as you describe here as well. First 2 and a half weeks it's was deathly silent, no cars on the roads. Slowly but surely, and increasingly over the last 2 weeks, more and more people are out and about.

 

[arnie_ni]

When is this current lockdown period over?

 

[TMDaines]

I do wonder what's going on in England at the moment. I'm back in work helping to get ready for opening up again. We are considered key workers so are allowed to. It seems that lockdown is pretty much over where I am in Manchester. Whilst I've been out I've seen about 15 people outside a house celebrating a 40th. I've seen countless tradesmen working at peoples houses. The roads and streets are getting fairly busy again. The lockdown has always been light touch but it now seems that people are just abandoning it and are unchallenged when they do so, despite what the government are saying.

Why wouldn't tradesman be allowed to work at people's houses in an entirely safe manner? If you think lockdown is over in Manchester, have you ever see peak traffic, on the road or public transport, in recent years? It's still very quiet.

There's a bit too much curtain twitching going on in the UK, with people feeling the need to comment on the movements of other individuals.

 

[Heardy]

When is this current lockdown period over?

Was meant to be next Friday i think (May 7th).

 

[11101]

I do wonder what's going on in England at the moment. I'm back in work helping to get ready for opening up again. We are considered key workers so are allowed to. It seems that lockdown is pretty much over where I am in Manchester. Whilst I've been out I've seen about 15 people outside a house celebrating a 40th. I've seen countless tradesmen working at peoples houses. The roads and streets are getting fairly busy again. The lockdown has always been light touch but it now seems that people are just abandoning it and are unchallenged when they do so, despite what the government are saying.

And Italy. Since the 4 May relaxation was announced last weekend it has been back to normal. People are everywhere and stores are all preparing to open. I'll be amazed if cases don't spike again in a week or two.

 

[Penna]

The PM in Italy is having to be firm - some bars and restaurants in Calabria in the south have re-opened their outside seating today. There's a bit of a difference of opinion between some regional Presidents and the central government - they have the power to tweak the rules, but up to now it's been invoked to enforce a stricter lockdown, rather than a lighter one.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

When is this current lockdown period over?

May 7th. Expecting another 2-3 weeks on top of that, personally. End of May is my pick, with some smaller measures being lifted during that 2-3 weeks (the odd sanction being lifted, like some shops opening before others).

Why wouldn't tradesman be allowed to work at people's houses in an entirely safe manner? If you think lockdown is over in Manchester, have you ever see peak traffic, on the road or public transport, in recent years? It's still very quiet.

There's a bit too much curtain twitching going on in the UK, with people feeling the need to comment on the movements of other individuals.

100% agree. This is what happens in extreme boredom, people are bored and frustrated and are looking for outlets to vent.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Why wouldn't tradesman be allowed to work at people's houses in an entirely safe manner? If you think lockdown is over in Manchester, have you ever see peak traffic, on the road or public transport, in recent years? It's still very quiet.

There's a bit too much curtain twitching going on in the UK, with people feeling the need to comment on the movements of other individuals.

I was more implying that the government are allowing fairly significant relaxations contrary to their public announcements.

 

[TMDaines]

100% agree. This is what happens in extreme boredom, people are bored and frustrated and are looking for outlets to vent.

Just wait until we get to the next stage and people have even more scope to leave the house. Tolerance at this time is such an underrated virtue.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

I was more implying that the government are allowing fairly significant relaxations contrary to their public announcements.

I wouldnt be surprised if local authorities have been given a lot more powers than we think. I think deep down the government know that policing this lockdown is only going to get harder, so maybe they've devolved to local authorities to manage their own turf, so to speak, as they see appropriate?

 

[TMDaines]

I was more implying that the government are allowing fairly significant relaxations contrary to their public announcements.

Not really. People have always been allowed to leave the house. Do you want police setting up roadblocks everywhere and increasing the number of unnecessary social interactions?

There's probably another forum online somewhere with other "key workers" muttering about having seen you and your colleagues going into work during their commute.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

Just wait until we get to the next stage and people have even more scope to leave the house. Tolerance at this time is such an underrated virtue.

People's minds have been warped a little, some are not thinking completely straight, they're existing in a bubble.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Why wouldn't tradesman be allowed to work at people's houses in an entirely safe manner? If you think lockdown is over in Manchester, have you ever see peak traffic, on the road or public transport, in recent years? It's still very quiet.

There's a bit too much curtain twitching going on in the UK, with people feeling the need to comment on the movements of other individuals.

Because you can’t have people going in and out of other people’s house in a “completely safe manner”. Then you have the risk of wo or more tradesmen travelling together in a van to and from jobs. Almost guaranteed to pass any virus between them and then on to whatever homes they visit.

I don’t know the rules in England but in Ireland you wouldn’t be able to get a house call from a tradesman for anything other than an emergency (e.g. gas leak)

I agree about curtain twitching but you either follow the rules of the lockdown or you don’t. It sounds as though the communication about what is/isn’t allowed in the Uk has been poor, if there’s this sort of uncertainty about the rules.

 

[TMDaines]

I wouldnt be surprised if local authorities have been given a lot more powers than we think. I think deep down the government know that policing this lockdown is only going to get harder, so maybe they've devolved to local authorities to manage their own turf, so to speak, as they see appropriate?

As someone who works in local government, I can assure you that they have not. One of the problems we face is that there is little genuine, devolved power locally in the UK, even in Greater Manchester where we supposedly have devolution. There's a constant struggle between local leaders wanting to take a more localised approach and having to play ball with national decision makers.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

As someone who works in local government, I can assure you that they have not. One of the problems we face is that there is little genuine, devolved power locally in the UK, even in Greater Manchester where we supposedly have devolution. There's a constant struggle between local leaders wanting to take a more localised approach and having to play ball with national decision makers.

We're getting similar confusing messages here in Wales. One minute Mark Drakeford is fully backing England's plans and happy to follow, the next he's saying that he looks forward to being able to release 'some' measures in Wales come May 7th. It's made all the more frustrating by the fact we're not being terribly hit here in Wales, any additional deaths are bad of course but our additional figures are not major.

I've said before, I have not seen a single bobby on the beat or in a car, here where I live since March 23rd. I go for a 2-3hr walk every single day at 5pm, same on a Saturday and Sunday. I've seen maybe 2-3 police vans cruise past in the last month or so, nothing else. Nobody is policing anything here, people are behaving well though for the most part. But if they decide feck it, it will literally be business as usual here.

I'm not fully convinced on the policing aspect. I don't think the government are telling us the full picture, I personally think most of it is bluffing. The majority of people are good people and relatively obedient especially if there's a greater cause - most of us will abide by regulations without needing to be actively policed.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Not really. People have always been allowed to leave the house. Do you want police setting up roadblocks everywhere and increasing the number of unnecessary social interactions?

There's probably another forum online somewhere with other "key workers" muttering about having seen you and your colleagues going into work during their commute.

You’re getting a bit excited. I’m not that fussed as I’m sceptical we even need to be locked down that serverely anyway. It seems to me like we are not observing the lockdown anywhere near like we were previously.That’s despite the government saying that we should be. I’ve not been curtain twitching either as I’ve been out consistently through the lockdown for work so have a good idea on traffic and people volumes where I am.

For your post above. What’s the reason for this, why will central government not devolve power? Personally I’m convinced that this is big contributor to the issues we’ve faced tackling this virus.

 

[TMDaines]

Because you can’t have people going in and out of other people’s house in a “completely safe manner”. Then you have the risk of wo or more tradesmen travelling together in a van to and from jobs. Almost guaranteed to pass any virus between them and then on to whatever homes they visit.

Well, sure. If you start from the position of "going in and out" and having two have "two or more tradesmen travelling together" then you are setting them up to fail. There's plenty of sole traders or small groups of workers, who can complete jobs whilst practising social distancing from each other and their clients.

There has never been any directive in the UK to stop tradesman working in the private homes of others, as far as I am aware:

2. Work carried out in people’s homes
Work carried out in people’s homes, for example by tradespeople carrying out repairs and maintenance, can continue, provided that the tradesperson is well and has no symptoms.

Again, it will be important to ensure that Public Health England guidelines, including maintaining a two-metre distance from any household occupants, are followed to ensure everyone’s safety.

No work should be carried out in any household which is isolating or where an individual is being shielded, unless it is to remedy a direct risk to the safety of the household, such as emergency plumbing or repairs, and where the tradesperson is willing to do so. In such cases, Public Health England can provide advice to tradespeople and households.

No work should be carried out by a tradesperson who has coronavirus symptoms, however mild.

People seem to be think we are trying to reduce the risk of transmission of the coronavirus to zero. That is not the goal and never has been. We're essentially trying to limit the rate of transmission by eliminating as much unnecessary social contact as possible. What we each define as "unnecessary" will differ however, hence conversations like this.