What about ebola?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
He's an anti Vaxxer
Yeah, but has he checked for symptoms?
When the cat's away the mice do play.
The cat's back.
PLEASE STAY ON TOPIC!
The cat's back.
PLEASE STAY ON TOPIC!
So when do we think Boris will bait and switch us with new restrictions?
It seems crazy, that he could propose restaurant's and pubs could only serve outdoors in January / February the two coldest months of the year.
It seems crazy, that he could propose restaurant's and pubs could only serve outdoors in January / February the two coldest months of the year.
First glimmers of news from Denmark. The following comes with huge caveats - early Omicron cases in Denmark are mostly in young adults, that is mostly in the group that are less likely to be hospitalised and more likely to have short stays in hospital. Also, Denmark pick up a very high proportion of infections, more than the UK does and way more than most of Europe. So their case to hospitalisations ratio can't be used directly by other countries, but the comparison with delta does give us something to go on.
Jo, Jo, Jo... He had a cough and blamed it on covid. It's as likely to be AIDS from his description. Chill bro jo
60% less hospitalisations isn’t nearly low enough when it’s 420% more transmissible.
If we assume the hospitalisation to death ratio holds the same. Then for every 1 Delta death you could expect Omicron to kill 2.52
Agreed, and that looks an awful number stripped down. However, Delta hit an unvaccinated population so nearly everyone was fair game for death.
Whereas now a very small population can even be considered to fall into that Uefa CL pot (mainly unvaxxed and a small subset of elderly).
Seems like you calculated 4,2×0,6=2,52 whereas 5,2×0,4=2,08 would be correct if we go by 420% and 60% and it could be calculated like that (I don’t think it can be).
ffsI actually think majority of public will accept lockdown/circuit breaker for early part of Jan for 2/3 weeks. Boost the hell out of everyone in meantime given the queues and lift it when you get in 40-45m range which should be 3rd week of Jan. Trick is not to make lockdown by stealth or whatever go into March/April as then people will get really frustrate again and do their own thing.
We've lived with this annoying virus for pretty much two years now so most know what happens if you let things drift so I'd say as seen during the covid era people will be surprised by how compliant the majority are. I'd say nearly a million a day getting their boosters daily shows the desire to keep this variant at bay as much as realistically is possible.
Just booked in my appointment for NYE.
What's the actual data for elders in South Africa and Denmark? Of course Africa with lower life expectancy but there are plenty who don't just pass away by the time they get pass 40 so have they been shielded incredibly well or are figures mainly same as being exposed to Delta variant in last 12 months?
Got second jab Tuesday, kept missing it due to work. Girlfriend is 30 on 28th December, not made plans yet specifically because we are anticipating restrictions. She’s handling it well(ish).
I think they'll do all they can to keep restaurants/pubs open for next week.
Think they'll shut as soon as Boxing day is over though as having them open for new year is asking for trouble with the present situation.
Early Jan is probably the one time you can probably get away with closing hospitality settings for a bit given most people are broke from what they've have spent during Jan.
I've had Eboue for sure
It’s all very encouragingly reminiscent of the early experience in Gauteng We see evidence of reduced severity and try not to get carried away because early cases skew young, we know there’s a lag, explosive increase in numerator falsely dilutes true severity etc etc
We now know (more or less) how things panned out in Gauteng and I’m getting more and more confident we’ll follow a similar path. Fingers crossed, obviously!
I am the polar opposite
Not @Eboue ? Dude. Is he happy with you telling the world?
Regarding ebola, I'm tripled vaxxed for that. Or for 5G. Or AIDS. I dunno, I took the vaccines because people who are smarter than me, and I trust with my life, advised me to. And I'm still alive, so they've done well so far
Despite my different views on a lot of things, I don't doubt @Stanley Road is on board with the science
Boris's only chance is populism, so he's blatantly gonna go for option 1
Just tested positive on a lateral flow earlier. My partner has had it for a few days now (she got it from a Work Christmas Party) and was hoping I’d sneakily avoid it but nope. Throat felt a bit annoying yesterday, and had this slight headache all day that I just couldn’t get rid off.
Today however, just completely sapped of energy, constantly needing to nap. Head is banging. Had a fair few lemsips now. Gonna have to isolate Christmas Day which really sucks, not much to be done about it though.
We’ve both had the double vaccine but no booster.
Today however, just completely sapped of energy, constantly needing to nap. Head is banging. Had a fair few lemsips now. Gonna have to isolate Christmas Day which really sucks, not much to be done about it though.
We’ve both had the double vaccine but no booster.
Corrected it for you
Either you don't get his sarcasm or I don't get your sarcasm, but I'm confused
It's a coded message to Stan with a clue that opens a crypto wallet
That didn't help with my confusion
Just tested positive on a lateral flow earlier. My partner has had it for a few days now (she got it from a Work Christmas Party) and was hoping I’d sneakily avoid it but nope. Throat felt a bit annoying yesterday, and had this slight headache all day that I just couldn’t get rid off.
Today however, just completely sapped of energy, constantly needing to nap. Head is banging. Had a fair few lemsips now. Gonna have to isolate Christmas Day which really sucks, not much to be done about it though.
We’ve both had the double vaccine but no booster.
Feel better soon. You're doing the right thing by sticking to the rules and isolating over Christmas, on the bright side - at least you have your partner and can make it a cozy time for the two of you.
I don't know if I'm being stupid here but I don't understand what the point in the vaccines or boosters is if we're now being told that hospital cases could end up double what they were last year unless we go into some kind of lockdown?
If a majority of people are vaccinated (90%), half triple vaccinated, and the vaccine offers the level of protection claimed, then the maths is a mile away from adding up here.
It was what, 1 in 30 at its peak last year, so over the course of the peak you can assume significantly more than 1 in 30 had covid. Possibly more than double that. Now 50% (and growing) of those would have around 70% protection, and almost all would have some vaccine or anti body protection. So for hospital admissions to be double last year you're getting close to everyone in the country needing to have covid at the exact same time? Which in itself makes no sense.
Then we're being told that a "vast majority" of people in hospital are unvaccinated, which based on the above is literally a mathematical impossibility.
I don't doubt the hospital or case number figures but at this point I'm completely lost with the rest of it. The whole point of the vaccine was to avoid this exact scenario and yet we're back in it at the exact earliest point in time it would have been possible to be
If a majority of people are vaccinated (90%), half triple vaccinated, and the vaccine offers the level of protection claimed, then the maths is a mile away from adding up here.
It was what, 1 in 30 at its peak last year, so over the course of the peak you can assume significantly more than 1 in 30 had covid. Possibly more than double that. Now 50% (and growing) of those would have around 70% protection, and almost all would have some vaccine or anti body protection. So for hospital admissions to be double last year you're getting close to everyone in the country needing to have covid at the exact same time? Which in itself makes no sense.
Then we're being told that a "vast majority" of people in hospital are unvaccinated, which based on the above is literally a mathematical impossibility.
I don't doubt the hospital or case number figures but at this point I'm completely lost with the rest of it. The whole point of the vaccine was to avoid this exact scenario and yet we're back in it at the exact earliest point in time it would have been possible to be
Not all hospital admissions are the same.
In Delta and previous waves issues was about severe disease. ITU admission with prolonged admissions that reduced capacity and we were looking at potential shortages of oxygen along with beds. Coupled with staff shortages.
If the boosters can prevent severe disease even with hospital admissions its worth doing. People who are vaccinated usually get admitted on acute medical wards for symptoms that need investigating like chest pain with no underlying significant pathology and discharged quick, or if they require a few litres of oxygen but are otherwise not having much complications we can step them down onto community hospitals.
Vaccinations, and the booster, are a huge game changer in breaking the link between severe disease and covid. So far held up steady. But overwhelming numbers of cases translating into pressures on account of "small percentage of a big number" as previously mentioned potentially a big problem, now with added little appetite sociopolitically for lockdown measures, we might be walking into another dangerous territory if case numbers acutely continue to skyrocket like this
I’m kind of going off vaccines now I’ve had three of them and my cheque from big pharma still hasn’t arrived
Because let's be honest, nobody actually knows how well the vaccine booster works against omnicron. They're just hoping it works - so am I, it's why I've got it and have encouraged my family to get it. It's a hail mary, or else we've got two pandemics happening simultaneously.
Just out of interest- how much of the old covid is getting to people vs this new variant?
Anyone taking bets on when we think lockdown will be announced in the UK?
My £5 would be on Boris holding out till 27th at 5pm.
My £5 would be on Boris holding out till 27th at 5pm.
About two years ago I thought the world was ending. That first wave in 2020 was terrifying. Then it got better. And better. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the future. Many things can still happen to turn this post on its head, but right now I feel this crisis is petering out. I'm tempted to say we've made it.
I can't seeing it being an actual lockdown, it'll be yet another half arsed half hearted set of rules that don't really do much of anything at all. Then we'll get an actual lockdown.
They add bitcoin to the vaccine, put your arm against any contactless card Machine...
Protection from infection by recent past infection is reckoned to have fallen from around 85% to below 20%. There's a real chance that the only unvaxxed ones it won't infect are the under 15s who got it this autumn.
For the vaccinated, similar dramatic falls have happened. However, the boosters may have pushed protection back up to around 70% + (early figures with wide error margin)
Instead of a pool of about 8m people (mostly children) available to get infected with Delta, Omicron immediately has a much bigger pool (maybe the equivalent of 40m in the UK), and it spreads easily.
Most scientists believe that it will infect a big percentage of that group within months if we live our normal pre-covid lives. Most of them also believe that past infection or prior vaccination will reduce hospitalisation, severe disease and death in those who do get infected - but they don't know by how much.
Even so, a small percentage of 40m is huge. If 1% of those infected get hospitalised that would be 400k. 400k, with the majority arriving in January, maybe 10k admissions/day if no action is taken, is a horror story.
It's easy to see how bad it can get. We've got key information missing when we try to predict what it will really do though - how much protection from hospitalisation do we have once we catch it, how severe is the Omicron variant compared to Delta? We just don't know, but there are glimmers of good news among the gloom
Personally I think the spike in cases and the warnings will send such a shockwave through the system that people will try not to kill their grannies for Christmas. I hope so anyway.
The bolded has never really made much sense, in fact it’s always sounded preposterous, especially after what we saw here and what started to happen with most high case load countries pre-lockdown.
This paper has an interesting angle on it, it’s not peer reviewed sadly but it’s food for thought at least.
Massi was always your best bet in here for doing the math on it.