SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

zing said:
Does this actually check out? If you're traveling, you'd be going around and running into way more people than if you were living at home and working.
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Suppose it depends what you intend on doing. If you're planning on eating indoors, going to bars which are quite closed off, indoor events etc. sure, but if I was to be abroad around now, I would be sticking to outdoor places almost all the time, and get a flat for me and whoever I'm with. The one main advantage of the Mediterranean countries, is that they're still hot enough now to be able to have all windows and doors open in venues, and outdoor dining and bars almost everywhere. Which also makes it easier to make plans like hiking and swimming etc. outdoors.

Biggest issue with Covid in this country is the weather turning (ignoring the last 3 days we've had, as tomorrow we'll be going cooler again). Means most bars and restaurants will be indoors and closed up, and people can't really make outdoor plans when it's raining every other day.
kps88 said:
Yeah I get all that. It’s the commute that would be the most stressful. I’m actually outside the UK but want to visit London to meet friends/family I haven’t seen in a while. But I’m unsure how safe London is right now since it looks like life is pretty much back to normal for most people there. But I also know it’s either now or next summer as things will likely get worse during the winter.
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From my point of view, it's seemed like the cases have been hovering at a steady figure for the last couple of months, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, although being considerably higher than the rest of Europe, it's not great.

A few weeks ago, it did seem to quieten down from an anecdotal view, but over the last 2-3 weeks, I've been hearing about people I know getting the virus, including my vet and mechanic! Think it's aligned with the poor weather we were having for a while throughout August.
 


that's a pretty drastic difference, i wonder if there are other factors as well. but another data point that backs intuitive logic.

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berbatrick said:
@Pogue Mahone

It was on the basis of this testing that they decided yesterday to stop letting us eat at restaurants - I think the large-scale testing helped make a (correct) decision.
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So after one week of re-imposing (not very strictly followed) indoor masking and no-eating rules at my university, positivity rate went from 1% to 0.5%.
https://coronavirus.duke.edu/covid-testing/
 
berbatrick said:


that's a pretty drastic difference, i wonder if there are other factors as well. but another data point that backs intuitive logic.

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So after one week of re-imposing (not very strictly followed) indoor masking and no-eating rules at my university, positivity rate went from 1% to 0.5%.
https://coronavirus.duke.edu/covid-testing/
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Really hard to know what does make a difference. Overall vaccination rates in the community and within households have a massive impact on what goes on in schools.

One thing that masks certainly do, amongst teens/adults particularly is remind us that we are still in a pandemic. So wearing masks reminds us to do other things like social distancing, avoiding indoor socialising etc.

Those behavioural modifications seem to kick in really quickly as well, and case rates follow.
 
Dave_MUFC said:
As said above me, the fact that I would most likely be in a country with much lower cases if I was to go abroad doesn't worry me in the slightest, but the travelling aspect really puts me off.

Pre-Covid, I already hated the flying process, I get really anxious about all the timing and staying stuck in a plane seat etc. and my body hates me for it. So couldn't imagine how it would be considering I'm quite aware with this virus, so not comfortable with people I don't know staying in close proximity to me, without any outside air flow, and having to wear a mask for hours on end, along with all the confusing test procedures that go along with it.

I would say it's fine to wait a couple of months until 2022, but we've been saying this for nigh on a year now, with no considerable improvements, so not really sure how it's going to pan out in the long term.

Two years without any flying for me so far, which I think is the longest ever for me.

I'm sorely tempted to get the car in the Euro tunnel and drive over through France, as that would be a lot more relaxed, being able to sit in your own confined space, and a lot more freedom to move around while travelling, although I need to muster up the courage to drive on the other side of the road first :lol:
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I'm with you on the anxieties of flying, but the air in a plane comes from the air outside a plane and is constantly being replaced. It's probably much better than being on a train or similar.
 
decorativeed said:
I'm with you on the anxieties of flying, but the air in a plane comes from the air outside a plane and is constantly being replaced. It's probably much better than being on a train or similar.
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Southwest in USA notes they have hepa filters and filter the air every 3-5 mins. For what it's worth.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Not very, unfortunately.

Assuming “Indian vaccine” is AZ then he wouldn’t be fully protected a week after the second dose so he can consider himself very unlucky.
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But he's had Covid so he should be fine. Natural immunity works just as well as the vaccine if not better.
 
Have to take the kids (6 & 9) for a COVID test later today. Couple of confirmed cases in other classes at their school but they seemed ok till last night - warm, coughing, runny nose, sore tummy
 
So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.
All so we can walk around without having to wear a face covering and go to rock concerts etc.
Such a small price to pay for so called 'freedom'.
 
Buster15 said:
So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.
All so we can walk around without having to wear a face covering and go to rock concerts etc.
Such a small price to pay for so called 'freedom'.
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I'm alright Jack
 
Buster15 said:
So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.
All so we can walk around without having to wear a face covering and go to rock concerts etc.
Such a small price to pay for so called 'freedom'.
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Think this is a bit harsh. A lot of human behaviour causes deaths, not just deaths related to covid. There's only so many restrictions we can take before quality of life, mental and physical wellbeing starts to plummet.

As far as masks go, I don't know how many lives they may save per year, but I would suspect that having a mask mandate in place isn't going to dramatically change that number you quoted.
 
Buster15 said:
So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.
All so we can walk around without having to wear a face covering and go to rock concerts etc.
Such a small price to pay for so called 'freedom'.
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Same as ID cards. Why is it?
I've got both. Doesn't cost anything.
Takes ten seconds to check like showing your ticket.
It's ridiculous.

The number of vaccinations in the UK seems to have dropped off a cliff as well. A few months ago France were way behind , now they're pulling further and further away as are other countries; What's going on?
They think it's all over. It isn't now.
 
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King Eric 7 said:
Think this is a bit harsh. A lot of human behaviour causes deaths, not just deaths related to covid. There's only so many restrictions we can take before quality of life, mental and physical wellbeing starts to plummet.

As far as masks go, I don't know how many lives they may save per year, but I would suspect that having a mask mandate in place isn't going to dramatically change that number you quoted.
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Well I don't agree it is a bit harsh.
The UK has had a pretty successful vaccination programme. And yet following lifting of the restrictions where the daily number of deaths was in the low tens and even single figures, we are firmly back to the highest in Europe with typically 150 per day.
That is the price of freedom.
 
Buster15 said:
Well I don't agree it is a bit harsh.
The UK has had a pretty successful vaccination programme. And yet following lifting of the restrictions where the daily number of deaths was in the low tens and even single figures, we are firmly back to the highest in Europe with typically 150 per day.
That is the price of freedom.
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So what do you do stay locked away forever? This thing isn't going away. People have been following government advice for nearly two years now.
 
I think the attitude is it’s alright as long as it doesn’t come to my door! Crack on.

its selfish but I can understand those who are suffering from restrictions

what I don’t understand is those who haven’t done masks, vaccinations etc. In my opinion they have no right to complain. They’ve chosen to opt out society. You want the best of society but you opt out of the hard bits. Can’t have it both ways
 
Buster15 said:
So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.
All so we can walk around without having to wear a face covering and go to rock concerts etc.
Such a small price to pay for so called 'freedom'.
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Would you like everybody locked up forever?
 
Buster15 said:
So. Seems like the British people are happy to accept a death rate from covid of about 40,000 a year based on the current rate.
All so we can walk around without having to wear a face covering and go to rock concerts etc.
Such a small price to pay for so called 'freedom'.
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You must've agonised over the tens of thousands of deaths from infectious diseases every year in the UK that you're partly responsible for spreading by participating in normal social life?
 
acnumber9 said:
Would you like everybody locked up forever?
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I think it's the idea that we're either in lockdown or we're in a free for all that upsets people.

It's not just that festivals are back or the schools are open again (because I actually want to see those things and more) it's the indifference to mitigation that annoys.

House of Commons reopens for business as usual (fair enough) but with no provision for ongoing WFH/online participation for those still at risk (or indeed those who test positive for covid) - what message does that send to employers? Public transport getting back to capacity, but no obligation even to wear a face mask when using it - why not? Schools are back but where was the investment in better ventilation during the summer that matters now it's getting colder?

I really don't want to see controls reintroduced, I don't want stadiums closed, or pubs shut. I don't even want us to lock up the elderly in protective custody carehomes. But I do want to hear the common good/social solidarity being pushed as values - with testing, self-quarantine when symptomatic or following a positive test (and proper sickpay), and other mitigations prioritised.

Because I really don't want another round of lockdowns and 50k dead this winter.
 
Brwned said:
You must've agonised over the tens of thousands of deaths from infectious diseases every year in the UK that you're partly responsible for spreading by participating in normal social life?
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I always wear my face mask when I am inside in a crowded environment.
Takes hardly any time to put it on and feel that it is not worth the risk. Simple.
 
jojojo said:
I think it's the idea that we're either in lockdown or we're in a free for all that upsets people.

It's not just that festivals are back or the schools are open again (because I actually want to see those things and more) it's the indifference to mitigation that annoys.

House of Commons reopens for business as usual (fair enough) but with no provision for ongoing WFH/online participation for those still at risk (or indeed those who test positive for covid) - what message does that send to employers? Public transport getting back to capacity, but no obligation even to wear a face mask when using it - why not? Schools are back but where was the investment in better ventilation during the summer that matters now it's getting colder?

I really don't want to see controls reintroduced, I don't want stadiums closed, or pubs shut. I don't even want us to lock up the elderly in protective custody carehomes. But I do want to hear the common good/social solidarity being pushed as values - with testing, self-quarantine when symptomatic or following a positive test (and proper sickpay), and other mitigations prioritised.

Because I really don't want another round of lockdowns and 50k dead this winter.
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Yes. Quite agree.
 
jojojo said:
I think it's the idea that we're either in lockdown or we're in a free for all that upsets people.

It's not just that festivals are back or the schools are open again (because I actually want to see those things and more) it's the indifference to mitigation that annoys.

House of Commons reopens for business as usual (fair enough) but with no provision for ongoing WFH/online participation for those still at risk (or indeed those who test positive for covid) - what message does that send to employers? Public transport getting back to capacity, but no obligation even to wear a face mask when using it - why not? Schools are back but where was the investment in better ventilation during the summer that matters now it's getting colder?

I really don't want to see controls reintroduced, I don't want stadiums closed, or pubs shut. I don't even want us to lock up the elderly in protective custody carehomes. But I do want to hear the common good/social solidarity being pushed as values - with testing, self-quarantine when symptomatic or following a positive test (and proper sickpay), and other mitigations prioritised.

Because I really don't want another round of lockdowns and 50k dead this winter.
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The people likely to engage in free for all’s weren’t likely to adhere to the previous rules though. Not to say that we shouldn’t expect people to have consideration for others and mask wearing in shops is a small price to pay for that. There are some who would have us in perpetual lockdown forever though.
 
acnumber9 said:
Would you like everybody locked up forever?
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Didn't say that I wanted lockdowns. I still believe that with 30,000+ infections per day and the awful number of deaths, wearing a face covering is not too much to ask.
 
fergies coat said:
So what do you do stay locked away forever? This thing isn't going away. People have been following government advice for nearly two years now.
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Government advice is to be cautious.
Nobody is being even remotely cautious.
 
Brwned said:
You must've agonised over the tens of thousands of deaths from infectious diseases every year in the UK that you're partly responsible for spreading by participating in normal social life?
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Your response is a bit unlike you. Everything alright?
 
Buster15 said:
Didn't say that I wanted lockdowns. I still believe that with 30,000+ infections per day and the awful number of deaths, wearing a face covering is not too much to ask.
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That wasn’t clear from your post when you mentioned concerts etc. No, it isn’t much to ask. It’s not going to drop those figures considerably though.
 
Buster15 said:
Government advice is to be cautious.
Nobody is being even remotely cautious.
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That's where I don't agree. Some people aren't being remotely cautious, but there's a massive amount of self-regulation going on. So far, after each surge event, we've seen people get tests and then we've seen the numbers fall back.

In particular if you look at England cases are lower now than they were at our "grand reopening" in mid July. They're rising again now as schools return, but not necessarily as a result of school - quite possibly just as a result of more LFTs picking up more asymptomatic/low symptom cases. The R rate as calculated by the ONS (who do random sampling) is currently more or less bang on 1 - which given delta's "no mitigation" R rate is thought to be around 6 actually shows a lot of restraint, in addition to vaccine impact.

The issue is what happens as people move indoors, windows close, students go to university. We need more focus on how to avoid spread beyond the initial infection location (mostly a question of testing and quarantine) and how to improve mitigations, particularly to protect the most vulnerable. I even think the much maligned covid app could make a comeback, now it asks you to get tested rather than go into quarantine irrespective of symptoms and circumstances - though it would need to be backed up by proper sickpay/support if it is followed by a positive test.

I actually think people are still willing to listen to the health messaging, they're just past the stage where they're willing to give up living a (closer to) normal life to do it.
 
I’m still wearing masks indoors and outside too if crowded. I don't understand why the restriction couldn't be nominally in place, even though it has never been properly enforced. But the day where an 'acceptable' number of deaths would be reached was always going to come. It had to.

Over winter months the NHS is more overran by infectious, opportunistic diseases than it currently is with COVID yet who prior to 2020 ever called for pubs, bars, restaurants, cinemas and football stadiums to be locked down for months on end to avoid that?
 
One for the stats geeks. Trying to model how case rates will move and the subsequent effects in terms of hospitalisations is notoriously difficult (as the biggest single missing variable is - how will people behave?) but this twitter thread looks at how things might develop. It comes from someone who is a statistician but takes the data from epidemiologists, PHE reports etc and as transparently as possible tries to show just how delicately balanced the situation is in the UK. He's actually got a good track record with his modelling efforts over the past year, and he's good at explaining how this type of modelling works and what are the limitations (which a lot of the SAGE/SPI-M teams aren't)

Spoiler alert: depending on what happens in terms on waning immunity and booster doses - outcomes vary massively, with somewhere between 10k and 50k deaths over the next few months. If you read the thread you'll get a sense of the juggling act that the scientists are doing to try and come in at the lower end of that, without trying to slam on the brakes in a way that neither the economy nor the population are likely to handle.

 
Buster15 said:
I always wear my face mask when I am inside in a crowded environment.
Takes hardly any time to put it on and feel that it is not worth the risk. Simple.
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You did that before covid, when tens of thousands of people were dying from infectious diseases every year, spread in the same way?
golden_blunder said:
Your response is a bit unlike you. Everything alright?
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I think everyone should be a little bit outraged that it’s become so normalised to sneer at huge swathes of society, over and over again, for doing relatively normal things. Maybe it was justifiable when alarm bells were ringing and emotions were running high, and the commentary becomes less considered. But for that attitude to continue - the constant criticism of the other, mixed in with constant negativity branded as being realistic and scientifically-minded - that's some mixture of tragic and outrageous.

The most prominent voices in this thread a couple of months ago were convinced the UK's decision would lead to a catastrophe. Or the decision was being made in defiance of the data and basic logic. For example:
Buster15 said:
Up to you.
However, I made this statement having listened to a number of leading scientific and medical people saying that all the indications are that the surge in new Covid infections is highly likely to result in a significant increase in hospital admissions around the middle of August. This was based on 30% of UK population not having two full vaccinations plus the 10 days that the body needs to produce the required immunity.
Current hospital levels are increasing day on day and so are deaths.
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Yet the hospitalisation levels in August were substantially lower than even the government's models predicted. Weeks and weeks of comments of impending doom, followed by a better-than-expected outcome and nothing close to the doom-mongering, and there's barely a peep.

It's not about being right or wrong - it's a complex situation with lots of uncertainties, so we should expect to be wrong frequently. But after going through that, and stepping into a reality where the house evidently isn't on fire, it seems reasonable to expect the sneering to stop. The moral highground doesn't make sense after that point. There's still lots of uncertainty so there's lots of potential ways to think about the problem, but tying it to some notion that your view is morally righteous, evidence based and simple common sense...that doesn't really hold. At which point it's worth considering the hypocrisy that comes with it to help bring a bit more realism to the discussion.

Buster came in here to disparage people that don't even have a chance to defend themselves, it wasn't prompted by any prior discussion, it was just yet another moment where someone felt like saying look how all these other people are doing the wrong thing, unlike me. I don't know how anyone can read that same kind of comment over and over and over again and not find it painful.
 
@Brwned personally I think you’re being a bit harsh on the poster. This was an unprecedented event in our lifetime which rightly left most people afraid and questioning their government responses. Throw in that the U.K. government have shown a history of “winging” it and going by what the media are saying half the time.

so I don’t think that a post calling for people to continue to wear their masks in places like public transport etc and in general think about how they unlock the country rather than just throwing the doors open, warrants the response you gave him.
 
golden_blunder said:
@Brwned personally I think you’re being a bit harsh on the poster. This was an unprecedented event in our lifetime which rightly left most people afraid and questioning their government responses. Throw in that the U.K. government have shown a history of “winging” it and going by what the media are saying half the time.

so I don’t think that a post calling for people to continue to wear their masks in places like public transport etc and in general think about how they unlock the country rather than just throwing the doors open, warrants the response you gave him.
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I think all of those things are reasonable. I still wear masks and think others should too. You can say that without saying “well it looks like the population are comfortable with all these people dying”, while gently pointing out how you’re better than that. They’re comfortable with it in the same way he was comfortable with it, in 2019. Infectious diseases killed tens of thousands of people every year simply because people went about their daily lives without doing things like wearing a mask. And it’s not like masks didn’t exist, we just looked at Asian travellers wearing them and thought…come on now, that’s a bit much. So if you want to shame people for taking an attitude that evidently comes so easily to us, you have to take the personal shame too. Or we could just try discussing ways to improve the world without shaming people.
 
France still mandates masks (I think) yet has higher number of people in hospital.
 
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