SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Igor Drefljak said:
I know this is impossible, but lets say we effectively quarantined the world to our homes for lets say, 6 weeks, and in the mean time, made enough testing kits, then gradually tested everybody before they were allowed back into the world, would that completely kill the virus off, barring somebody eating an infected bat again
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Who's making the test kits, running the electricity system and the water supply, and keeping us fed while the whole world is quarantined?
 
Igor Drefljak said:
I know this is impossible, but lets say we effectively quarantined the world to our homes for lets say, 6 weeks, and in the mean time, made enough testing kits, then gradually tested everybody before they were allowed back into the world, would that completely kill the virus off, barring somebody eating an infected bat again
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Probably not, because people would be sharing homes and keeping the virus alive through transmitting it between the occupants over that period of time. This is why quarantine isn’t the inevitable answer if you just send healthy people away to spends lots of time with sick people self isolating.

Some would inevitably give a false negative test on release too.
 
I work in a Government department where everybody has laptops and can just as easily do our jobs at home and they’re still insistent on working as normal. It kind of sums up our Government.
 
Dumbstar said:
So what's the end game with Corona virus? Before a vaccine that is. Obviously right now we're trying to 'stop more people getting it and passing it on' but what about when a few billion have pretty much already been exposed? Do we just start going back to work on the tubes, schools, football games, pubs, festivals, etc? The ones that don't get really ill will need to carry on living right? When does that happen? August? December?
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There'll be a lockdown to slow the spread. But at least a third of the population will eventually get it regardless. At that point, the economy will be too strained to keep everything shut. People who have recovered will begin returning to normal life, and any curfews will be lifted. There'll continue to be advisories for vulnerable people and those who've remained unifected, but they'll have to be managed as a separate group for the sake of the country remaining afloat. The NHS will still be overloaded for a while yet, but they'll have got over the worst of the pandemic in a few months and learned enough to deal more effectively with the remaining cases soon (hopefully).

I reckon the corona virus will continue to be around for another year or two, but the nationwide panic stations will be over by the end of the summer. Unfortunately, I also think we'll lose between 0.5 and 1 million people unless the scientists somehow figure out how to create a vaccine in record time (which is unlikely).

There's no getting around this without ending all pretences of a functioning society and economy. We can't survive without the essentials, but we can't import/produce the essentials without continuing as normal.

It's a balancing act between producing enough to stay afloat and stopping everything to stay uninfected. People will moan on either side of the spectrum, but I think we're more or less doing things right at the moment.
 
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acnumber9 said:
I work in a Government department where everybody has laptops and can just as easily do our jobs at home and they’re still insistent on working as normal. It kind of sums up our Government.
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And yet people like to say people in the government don't work. I always say here that that may be true for the Feds and state govt but not local government. They won't shut down for much of anything.
 
acnumber9 said:
I work in a Government department where everybody has laptops and can just as easily do our jobs at home and they’re still insistent on working as normal. It kind of sums up our Government.
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Yeah, this is the stuff I don't understand. I can see why shutting schools and things is a major decision that needs careful consideration of side effects. But telling anyone who can work from home with minimal disruption to do so seems like such an easy win - fewer social interactions immediately with little down side.
 


I feel sorry for US citizens, I really do.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Yeah, this is the stuff I don't understand. I can see why shutting schools and things is a major decision that needs careful consideration of side effects. But telling anyone who can work from home with minimal disruption to do so seems like such an easy win - fewer social interactions immediately with little down side.
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Yeah, most of my company works remotely anyway, but they just announced that anybody who does work out of an office now needs to work from home and they gave us all an allowance whether we are already home workers or not to buy any equipment needed that'll increase productivity and help us out.
 
Dante said:
There'll be a lockdown to slow the spread. But at least a third of the population will eventually get it regardless. At that point, the economy will be too strained to keep everything shut. People who have recovered will begin returning to normal life, and any curfews will be lifted. There'll continue to be advisories for vulnerable people and those who've remained unifected, but they'll have to be managed as a separate group for the sake of the country remaining afloat. The NHS will still be overloaded for a while yet, but they'll have got over the worst of the pandemic in a few months and learned enough to deal more effectively with the remaining cases soon (hopefully).

I reckon the corona virus will continue to be around for another year or two, but the nationwide panic stations will be over by the end of the summer. Unfortunately, I also think we'll lose between 0.5 and 1 million people unless the scientists somehow figure out how to create a vaccine in record time (which is unlikely).

There's no getting around this without ending all pretences of a functioning society and economy. We can't survive without the essentials, but we can't import/produce the essentials without continuing as normal.

It's a balancing act between producing enough to stay afloat and stopping everything to stay uninfected. People will moan on either side of the spectrum, but I think we're more or less doing things right at the moment.
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Worldwide or in UK?
 
I know a lot of people are dying but this is grim.

 
Dante said:
UK
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Yes, unfortunately, I think that is a reasonable estimate. Hopefully, it will be better. An estimate of 20% infected with a mortality rate of 0.7% (South Korea) put the number of victims much lower, at 93k. A pessimistic estimate of 60% infected with a mortality rate of 4.3% (expected for Italy) would put it at 1.7 million. Obviously the mortality rate is directly related to the number of infected people (overwhelmed hospitals = higher mortality rate).

Hopefully, with preventive actions made these days, the UK (and the world) would go towards the first scenario, though it will probably be somewhere in between.
 
Revan said:
Yes, unfortunately, I think that is a reasonable estimate. Hopefully, it will be better. An estimate of 20% infected with a mortality rate of 0.7% (South Korea) put the number of victims much lower, at 93k. A pessimistic estimate of 60% infected with a mortality rate of 4.3% (expected for Italy) would put it at 1.7 million. Obviously the mortality rate is directly related to the number of infected people (overwhelmed hospitals = higher mortality rate).

Hopefully, with preventive actions made these days, the UK (and the world) would go towards the first scenario, though it will probably be somewhere in between.
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What also counts against the UK is our relatively high elderly population and obesity levels.

I don't think we're as healthy a nation as South Korea.

EDIT: https://www.who.int/cardiovascular_diseases/en/cvd_atlas_29_world_data_table.pdf

South Korea is pretty much the GOAT when it comes to heart disease. I bet that has a lot to do with it. Comorbidity with covid-19 and heart disease is high enough to suggest that's one of the major risk factors.

The UK and US don't do anywhere near as well as South Korea on the heart disease. And what success we do have will be down to medication rather than tackling the underlying health conditions which covid-19 would exacerbate.
 
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MaxiPaxi said:
That's pretty significant but what about the kids, who will they stay with whilst their parents are presumably working?
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In a lot of cases at least one parent will have to take time off work. Which in its own way might also help slow the spread of the disease.

Obviously that's not sustainable indefinitely though, which is one of the reasons these sort of measures have to be timed correctly. Go too early and you've wasted those couple of weeks at a point when infection is still manageable anyway. Go too late and you're dragging workers from essential services at a crucial time.
 
University near me is testing staff being at home on Friday. Lecturers and students will still be in as far as I know. Not sure what will happen if it has to shut. Remote lectures?
 
Would have loved this to be around when I was at school. No school for a month and told to self isolate? Playstation & TV all day, what a dream
 
Grinner said:
I wonder what the plans are for the bodies of victims who succumb.
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Probably burial/cremation, acording to wishes/customs, but without public funeral ceremony.
 
acnumber9 said:
Yeah we should just not show up for work. I’m sure you’ve stopped going to work.
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I have actually, I'm retired.

Aside from that, if it is feasible to work from home then put that forward. Get together, don't you have a union, or at least workplace representatives? If not go to your boss personally and put forward the reasons for doing so, and the advantages. What's stopping you?
 
Cases in Italy are increasing by about 33% every day and the UK/France/Germany are all following a similar trajectory, albeit a few weeks behind in terms of numbers.

If things continue as they (which they probably won't, to be fair), the UK will possibly reach 45m infected in about 40 days. I think that's the worst case scenario.
 
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Can't wait to see all the "So inspiring. Praise GOD for TRUMP. That's MY PRESIDENT!" posts on social media after this riveting speech.
 
What’s the benefit of excluding the UK? It’s already broke out there.
 
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