Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

2cents said:
What’s the next target for Ukraine here? Obviously they’d love to cut the land bridge and put pressure on Mariupol but is that at all feasible?
Click to expand...

There's a lot of options actually, altough I would say there's 3 fronts to focus on:

1) The path to Crimea. It basically starts by retaking Nova Kakjovka, which can now be reached by HIMARS at any moment. Once there, the water supply to Crimea can be cut anytime, forcing the RA to choose between a risky action or to be slowly weakened and eventually defeated.
2) Zaporizhzhia/Melitopol. It's maybe the hardest and the one that's gonna be more brutally defended by Russia. Melitopol is basically the hub for all of the RA logistic operations in the south, even more so after the sinking of the Moskva and the damaging of Kerch's bridge.
3) North Lugansk. Here the equation is simpler: it's supposedly the region worst defended by the RA. Its activity also helps straining Russia's logistics from the Dnieper to its own (real) frontiers.

We should also consider the bleeding of Donetsk front (specially at Bahkmut) as an attrition factor for both sides, altough not that crucial strategically speaking.
 
Krakenzero said:
There's a lot of options actually, altough I would say there's 3 fronts to focus on:

1) The path to Crimea. It basically starts by retaking Nova Kakjovka, which can now be reached by HIMARS at any moment. Once there, the water supply to Crimea can be cut anytime, forcing the RA to choose between a risky action or to be slowly weakened and eventually defeated.
2) Zaporizhzhia/Melitopol. It's maybe the hardest and the one that's gonna be more brutally defended by Russia. Melitopol is basically the hub for all of the RA logistic operations in the south, even more so after the sinking of the Moskva and the damaging of Kerch's bridge.
3) North Lugansk. Here the equation is simpler: it's supposedly the region worst defended by the RA. Its activity also helps straining Russia's logistics from the Dnieper to its own (real) frontiers.

We should also consider the bleeding of Donetsk front (specially at Bahkmut) as an attrition factor for both sides, altough not that crucial strategically speaking.
Click to expand...
These are not mutually exclusive , the Donbas front had been working in parallel to the southern direction for quite some time. So I think 3 will happen either way.
 
Kherson city is done (except for possible undercover Russian agents). The biggest threat to the existence of Ukraine as a country (being landlocked up to Odesa) is truly done and I can really relax now. Whatever happens from here is a bonus. Let's see if they can really reclaim everything. Slava Ukraini!
 
Drawfull said:
Come on, that's obviously completely made-up bullshit. That said, I've just pissed 97.2% of the volume of urine that I did in 2007 after 12 bottles of Peroni, so maybe they're onto something.
Click to expand...

The map specifically says "share of population" in the Oblast.

Mykholyv and Kharkyv are definitely correct. Zap is probably not far off the mark either if they are going by population centers and not land. If you control the northern part of the Oblast where Zap City is, you control a majority of the population in the Oblast. They do need to update Kherson though since the Ukrainians reestablishing control of the city, means they now control most inhabitants in the Oblast.
 
Raoul said:
Mykholyv and Kharkyv are definitely correct. Kherson and Zap are probably not far off the mark either if they are going by population centers and not land. In Kherson, if you control the city, you control a vast majority of the poeple in the Oblast. Similar thing applies in Zap. If you control the northern part of the Oblast where Zap City is, you control a majority of the population in the Oblast.
Click to expand...

They're not correct to hundredths of a percent. If they are, then whoever's counting it needs to get their arse over to your neck of the woods.
 
The videos from Kherson are so emotional, those soldiers must be overwhelmed now. Herojam Slava!
 
And think that the russians were expecting to be received like that...
 
Just watched the panorama documentary on Mariupol. Required watching for anyone who still doesn't realise that Russia is pure molten evil. Stories that should never be forgotten.



Not sure if its available anywhere other than BBC iplayer yet.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Dafuq? Putin will fall, but do you think Putin will kill him first for that?

Click to expand...


He's going to fall out of a window pretty soon while having a cigarette. Wonder if the assassination of his daughter has made him not care about his own life anymore.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Dafuq? Putin will fall, but do you think Putin will kill him first for that?

Click to expand...


"Calls for" is a bit strong. It's a 100 year old literary reference which is again referencing older folklore, and even then it's written more as "this is what happens" than "this is what should happen".
 
Gehrman said:
What a pointless war this has been so far. Barring tactical nukes, Russia has lost. 100.000 dead or wounded is staggering considering the length if the war. Of course Ukraine is destroyed more than Russia, but they have handled it bravely and superbly. Somewhat scary to think about how we go from here. Putin cannot be treated any differently than the fascist dictators of the recent past.
Click to expand...

It really is wild when you think about it. By the end of this conflict Russia may realistically end up having massacred thousands upon thousands of their own men (presumably men in the prime age of their lives as well), totally tanked their economy and the reserves they had in stock and made themselves a complete pariah in the international community, all while having actually gained nothing bar the destruction of their neighboring country.
 
Cloud7 said:
It really is wild when you think about it. By the end of this conflict Russia may realistically end up having massacred thousands upon thousands of their own men (presumably men in the prime age of their lives as well), totally tanked their economy and the reserves they had in stock and made themselves a complete pariah in the international community, all while having actually gained nothing bar the destruction of their neighboring country.
Click to expand...

It’s losses all round. Aside from the killed and kidnapped people, Ukraine will come out of this a much stronger country when all is said and done. I’d expect floods of foreign aid and investment. They will build a military that ensures Russian can never again threaten them and be on a path to one day join EU/NATO. They will also be first to jump to aid against Russia whenever any other country needs it.
 
Rajma said:

This didn’t age very well.
Click to expand...


For some reason this reminded me of a guy who used to post here during early months of war:

DT12 said:
The messaging here (Russia), albeit not stated so directly, is that Putin has to take all of Ukraine at this point. First Donbas (which will likely fall by the end of June), then the north, then Lviv, with the aim to have the entire country 'taken' by October. Putin (via Peskov) keeps saying that the 3 core aims of this "special military operation" given by Putin prior to the invasion (destruction of the Azov Batallion, demilitarisation of Ukraine, and Ukrainian neutrality) have not changed, and – this part matters most – he has “no doubts that they will be accomplished in full” (he doesn’t say stuff like this if he doesn’t strongly believe it’s a foregone conclusion). The Azov Batallion have already surrendered, neutrality is basically assured at this point, which leaves only the trickiest one: demilitarisation. Since the US are at least saying they're committed for the long term, that means Putin needs Kiev (although literally an hour ago John Kirby at the Pentagon gave a press conference in which he said they need to be realistic about sending heavy weapons to Ukraine because "time is not on our side" - in other words, this looks like being over sooner rather than later, but I'm going to write more on that when I reply to an earlier post that was addressed to me about why I believe Ukraine can't win this war from here).

I've already stated my belief that there isn't going to be a meaningful counter-offensive (there is a massive disconnect between what Zelenskiy and Kuleba say in their rallying calls when addressing the likes of Davos or the American Senate, and what the actual generals on the ground like Zaluzhnyi are saying).
Click to expand...

Wonder what happened to that guy. Probably thinks they are fighting NATO or what's the latest copium out there.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.