Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Also, we have to take into account that iranian drones are pretty much big model aircrafts with bomb attached, it's just junk that they only manage to make effective by sending 40 of them at the same time. You can't really compare that to what would be long range weapon given by the US like ATCAMs.
He wouldn’t have a clue.
Only Elon can save us
First, the Thai footballing kids stuck in a cave and now this?
What I don't understand is for someone with his responsibilities in quite a few successful companies, how does he find the time to tweet or even get involved in global affairs other than his existing businesses? You never see or hear from Bezos or Buffett tweeting or blabbing away other than work-related stuff. I have worked for CEOs of major global companies -- they have long working hours.
As rich as he is, why does he feel the need for engagement/affirmation with the plebs on social media? Doesn't his businesses need more of his attention rather than him seeking it from the public?
Putin hasn't said that about Crimea, are we to understand Elon Musk is the person that is presenting Russian nuclear military tactics to the world? Is he an ambassador for Russia?
The Russian propaganda shows are all talking about how it would be dumb to use nuclear weapons.
Let's say we accept that Putin told Musk Russia's nuclear strategy in that phone call he says didn't happen. Why draw this "red line" in Crimea? Why not draw it in Kherson? If nuclear blackmail is effective, why hasn't he used it to lock in his territorial gains?
Nuclear weapons are a great thing to bluff with, I don't think it's a great tool. This isn't the first time everyone's been worried that Russia is bringing out the nukes. It's a Boy Who Cried Nukes situation at this point, and Putin only has himself to blame.
He would need to detonate a nuke in the Black Sea or some such before anyone would believe him. And it seems unlikely the reaction to that wouldn't be helpful to his efforts.
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I think Musk and one of his pals on Twitter - David Sacks, are tag teaming to push the “we need a negotiated settlement or else there will be nuclear war” narrative. Interestingly, Elon has been pushing this since his call with Putin.
What is the endgame for Putin? Do Russia's neighbors think Putin's ambition/avarice ends there? Does Putin himself think normal relations will eventually resume, just like after Crimea when Trump just looked the other way (or barked like a good little lap doggy)?
I think we are at the point in the story where the third act begins. Western leaders need to say out loud what they all secretly realize, and that is that Putin cannot be allowed to stay in power. At the very minimum he is guilty of war crimes. I think NATO and the western powers keep hoping Putin will grow tired of the invasion and go back to whatever it is he does in his free time (ride horses while shirtless?). The fact that we keep hearing tactical nuclear weapons discussed should tell everyone that there will be no return to "normal" while Putin is in power.
So what do we do? Seal Team 6?
I think we are at the point in the story where the third act begins. Western leaders need to say out loud what they all secretly realize, and that is that Putin cannot be allowed to stay in power. At the very minimum he is guilty of war crimes. I think NATO and the western powers keep hoping Putin will grow tired of the invasion and go back to whatever it is he does in his free time (ride horses while shirtless?). The fact that we keep hearing tactical nuclear weapons discussed should tell everyone that there will be no return to "normal" while Putin is in power.
So what do we do? Seal Team 6?
The end game for the west has to be removing Putin from within by weakening Russia through a combination of sanctions and internal unrest. I don’t think any western leader will publicly admit this, but they are all thinking it.
I think Putin’s strategy will be to draw this out and rely on a favorable change of government in the US.
In which case we are probably doomed.
I think even if the Dems lose the House in November there'll still be a fair bit of support for Ukraine at this point. Not sure Putin can afford to drag this war out for another 2 years waiting for Trump or some other stooge. In fairness though, I suppose he could just be banking on Biden's health failing him? Don't think Harris could last very long as President. Perhaps a long shot is better than no shot at this point.
Definitely, however another Trump presidency could be a problem. I don’t think Putin can drag this out that long.
While vast majority is being shot down it’s not sustainable in the current format because air-defense rockets have to be wasted in large quantities on these cheap Iranian drones, severely depleting their existing arsenal. Hopefully US and partners doing everything at the moment to develop a cost efficient way to totally neutralize these because as I predicted when this news only started to find its legs it might be a game changer, unfortunately. Some suggestions that zenith artillery systems are needed for Ukraine to shot these downs optimally.
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Tesla is depend on aluminium from one of the oligarchs - made a deal with the devil and now he’s fecked.
I saw a picture a month or so ago where conscripts were carrying Mosin-Nagant rifles.How long until the Russians are using these?
I'm thanking CoD for getting to know about WW2 rifles, assault rifles and submanchine guns.
To add they (iran/russia) can produce these drones at an estimated rate of 100/day, apparently. Russia only understands retaliation so unless west provides enough for Ukraine to swarm Russian infrastructure and cities with similar drones, they’ll keep coming.
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This will hasten research and production of anti-drone defences. Know it sounds sci-fi but electronic jammers and laser defence is long term the best response to these low budget, low-tech drones, as it's a low-cost, hi-tech method to neutralise quite a nasty piece of equipment. On the flip side, NATO militaries don't have any equivalents because they have super effective airforces so it's not possible to supply similar to Ukraine other than giving them better ballistics, which they should.
The only country that definitely has super effective drone defence is Israel. Will be a game changer if they decide to supply that defence to Ukrainian cities (which I think will partially happen, as the tech is joint developed with the US). However, I wouldn't count on Israel to rush to Ukraine's aid unless they see it as a fantastic opportunity to test their ware against Iranian made drones. The trade-off being Iran gets an opportunity to work out how to evade Israeli defences... Can't see Israel considering that a worthwhile trade-off sadly.
Russias tone has changed a bit lately and there have been several stories of them "wanting talks with the west" which means they have realized this wont end well for them at the current trajectory and they probaby hope that they can strike a deal where they kept Crimea as well as Donetsk and Luhansk for a ceasefire.
Putin severely overestimated the capabilites of his own army and if The EU Parliment votes to recognising Russia a state sponsor of terror their hard pressed economy is surely going to collapse.
Maybe hes delusional and thinks he can turn this around still, but imo, surrendering is not an option for Putin in either case. So he will keep sending ill prepared recruits into the meat grinder until hes removed from within or he destroys us all in a nuclear holocaust
https://www.militarytimes.com/congr...m_medium=social&utm_campaign=tw_militarytimes
The list includes:
750,000 XM1128 and XM1123 rounds for 155mm artillery.
1,000 M777 Howitzers.
700 M142 HIMARS.
100,000 GMLRS rockets for the HIMARS.
6,000 MGM-140 ATACMS missiles.
20,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
25,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles.
30,000 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles.
36,000 AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles
1,000 Harpoon missiles.
800 Naval Strike Missile.
10,000 Patriot air defense missiles.
20,000 AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.
The list includes:
750,000 XM1128 and XM1123 rounds for 155mm artillery.
1,000 M777 Howitzers.
700 M142 HIMARS.
100,000 GMLRS rockets for the HIMARS.
6,000 MGM-140 ATACMS missiles.
20,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
25,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles.
30,000 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles.
36,000 AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles
1,000 Harpoon missiles.
800 Naval Strike Missile.
10,000 Patriot air defense missiles.
20,000 AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.
I guess this to protect against a pro-russian Congress and a possible Trump or Trump-lite presidency in 2014?
I think so too, they obviously want to hedge against it now as they should.
Absolutely massive numbers, initially I missed the "Refill the US stockpiles" and thought ok this should be sufficient to reach Vladivostok.
For anyone wondering why Baltics/Poland have completely closed the border for Russian citizens.
Wild capitalism on display
Iran is sending ground launched ballistic missiles to Russia that is very similar to the ATACMS missiles both in range and warhead size.
Then about time US finally allows the ATACMS shipment, and also what is Israel really doing here...
Russian channels in coordination coming out with retreating from Kherson bs, some suggested that they might be planning to flood Kherson region by blowing up the dam in nova kakhovka (and blaming Ukraine obviously). That would be the sort of war crime that is not beyond these nazis, so I expect for the worst to happen.
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So the chief Nazi is on the record now saying the same thing. They’re retreating now only question if they will blow up the dam when leaving to the other side of Dnipro.
Quite the smooth talker, ain't he.