Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

A few (2 or 3) newly mobilized soldiers have opened fire on their own during training. At least 11 people are dead (more deaths get reported with every minute).

Another wonderful case of well-planned mobilization.
How are you hearing about this, what platform?
 
Happy to learn otherwise but I think the reason why people say the UK nuclear deterrent is not independent is because they assume it uses US satellites for navigation and targeting, although it actually uses starlight, night and day.

Obviously long-term the UK would rely on US technical support, but not initially.

Although the UK is kind of dependent in one way because if the US did launch then their enemy would likely hit the UK anyway just in case. But in the ludicrously unlikely scenario where the UK wanted to bomb someone the US didn't, it could, if that makes sense.

Yeah all that is fair comment. I just think British politicians have been so aligned with the US in relation to nuclear weapons this country would always defer to the US's wishes and advice on their use.
 
The fact that it's being mentioned is pretty unnerving. I know people in their 40s/50s will probably say this is what it was like during the 80s Cold War but it's not something that I want to grow accustomed to.

Tbf. I was more concerned about the IRA and their bombing back then.
 
People talk about World War III. Obviously, NATO would have a few countries joining in if that happens but who is going to join Russia side other than Belarus anyway? I really doubt any other superpower countries would join them.

So this would have been over pretty quickly in a conventional war ? Even in a nuclear war, I really doubt the likes of China, India would nuke anyone. Obviously, it would be devastation for all of us. But I really don't see why those countries will join one side or another in any scenario in this age.

It would always only be Russia vs some NATO countries in most likely Ukrainian territories only?
 
Russia's Revenue from O&G


Makes sense in the short term since prices elevated so much.

It would be interesting to know how this will look in the next 6 months considering prices have begun to decline and Russia is no longer giving oil to Europe. Putin said recently they may turn the oil back on to Europe which suggests to me that there may be economic issues they need to fix.

It would also be interesting to see how other industries in Russia have fared in the same timeframe as I imagine other than oil and gas almost every other industry has been hit badly
 
I wonder whether Western officials will eventually corroborate or somewhat confirm Ukraine's own reported numbers on Russians killed in action. They've been staking quite some PR on these daily updated numbers and if it turns out their numbers are widely off the mark that would reflect badly. Anyway, 65,000 is a staggering number.

 
I wonder whether Western officials will eventually corroborate or somewhat confirm Ukraine's own reported numbers on Russians killed in action. They've been staking quite some PR on these daily updated numbers and if it turns out their numbers are widely off the mark that would reflect badly. Anyway, 65,000 is a staggering number.



I think everyone expects Ukraine to exaggerate the numbers and understand why, so I don't think it would reflect that badly...

However if you look at their claims of vehicle and equipment losses vs what Onyx has been able to visually confirm, they all seem very plausible, so I'd expect the same for the death tally. There has been very little "propaganda" published by Ukrainian gov that can be debunked.
 
I wonder whether Western officials will eventually corroborate or somewhat confirm Ukraine's own reported numbers on Russians killed in action. They've been staking quite some PR on these daily updated numbers and if it turns out their numbers are widely off the mark that would reflect badly. Anyway, 65,000 is a staggering number.


There was a supposed leaked Russian document that said 48,000 were dead, and the Uranian count was at 51,000, which suggests it's pretty accurate.
 
I wonder whether Western officials will eventually corroborate or somewhat confirm Ukraine's own reported numbers on Russians killed in action. They've been staking quite some PR on these daily updated numbers and if it turns out their numbers are widely off the mark that would reflect badly. Anyway, 65,000 is a staggering number.


Some of the "independent" Russian media reported a few days ago of over 90k "irrecoverable losses".

 
Some of the "independent" Russian media reported a few days ago of over 90k "irrecoverable losses".


I'm not sure what they define as irrecoverable losses. Through many conflicts (WW1, WW2), Russia has almost always had losses that would break another country, but they keep on fighting and bringing on fresh recruits.
I'm well aware of Russian's demographic implosion, but 90k losses is not absolutely irrecoverable for a country of 146 million in a fight to the bitter end. Yes, replacing them, training them is going to be extremely hard, but Russia has pulled it off before. Just saying.