Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Looks like yesterday's reports of Russians retreating all the way to Dudchany and then the fighting going in that area were correct. It would mean Ukraine advanced around 30km by the riverside in a few days or so, the first major breakthrough in Kherson region.

 
We all laughed at him for being a fantasist when he said Ukraine will defeat Russia back in February.
 
The Firestarter said:
Don't remember any of them having nukes though.
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How does that change or affect what happens internally in Russia?

Putin is a 70 year old man. Even without the mess he's created, at some stage there has to be a transition of power. Either he will try to find a successor, or he'll be deposed. This isn't like the Soviet Union with a political mechanism in place to replace him.

He continues to march Russia towards economic and political isolation and even if he doesn't care, plenty of those around him will because this is the future they'll have to live. These are not ideologues, they're just gangsters and kleptocrats who look out for number one. Whilst he may well rule by fear now, that isn't guaranteed forever and when it starts to fall apart, and he loses his grip people will act in their own self-interest, not his. There's a simple solution coming for all those around Putin to have a brighter future.
 
Surprised the Russians have not drawn up a defensive line. Are they allowing the UKR forces to go deeper and therefore stretch their lines thin before counter-attacking?
 
sglowrider said:
Surprised the Russians have not drawn up a defensive line. Are they allowing the UKR forces to go deeper and therefore stretch their lines thin before counter-attacking?
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I agree it seems Ukraine is taking land back very quickly which does make you think it could be a trap to thin their lines and counter attack

but flip side, the German collapse in wwii also went fairly quickly and it’s hard to draw a defensive line when so much of Your army is retreating without much order
 
sglowrider said:
Surprised the Russians have not drawn up a defensive line. Are they allowing the UKR forces to go deeper and therefore stretch their lines thin before counter-attacking?
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Ukraine aren’t giving them time to establish a foothold for a counter attack. Speed is a tactic for Ukraine, not for Russia
 
We need an rvn said:
I agree it seems Ukraine is taking land back very quickly which does make you think it could be a trap to thin their lines and counter attack

but flip side, the German collapse in wwii also went fairly quickly and it’s hard to draw a defensive line when so much of Your army is retreating without much order
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Yeah if you're retreating without your equipment you're not likely to be planning a counter attack.
 
RedRover said:
How does that change or affect what happens internally in Russia?

Putin is a 70 year old man. Even without the mess he's created, at some stage there has to be a transition of power. Either he will try to find a successor, or he'll be deposed. This isn't like the Soviet Union with a political mechanism in place to replace him.

He continues to march Russia towards economic and political isolation and even if he doesn't care, plenty of those around him will because this is the future they'll have to live. These are not ideologues, they're just gangsters and kleptocrats who look out for number one. Whilst he may well rule by fear now, that isn't guaranteed forever and when it starts to fall apart, and he loses his grip people will act in their own self-interest, not his. There's a simple solution coming for all those around Putin to have a brighter future.
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The cases you mentioned were externally triggered. So far I see the chance of F-35s bombing Moscow still as slim. Also, they had an already established resistance/ opposition that could be helped. No such entity exists in Russia. It may develop , but it will take a lot of time.
 
The Firestarter said:
The cases you mentioned were externally triggered. So far I see the chance of F-35s bombing Moscow still as slim. Also, they had an already established resistance/ opposition that could be helped. No such entity exists in Russia. It may develop , but it will take a lot of time.
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The concern over use of nuclear weapons is based on the idea that Putin is a madman who will ultimately be willing to risk it all and take the world down in flames if he has to. He might be, because if he loses this war, he's finished anyway. That risk doesn't apply to the people around him and it shows that he's not as all powerful as he might be assumed to be.

The narrative shifted last week with Zelensky and others making the point that Putin, not Russia, is the problem. It's targeted at people around him and the general population. There has been numerous articles the last few weeks about how mobilization has broken the social contract with the Russian people who willingly kept out of politics in return for an easy life. He's now asking them to go to war. Russia is a massive country, and there's a risk that as the war drags on and less young men come home public opinion will turn.

My opinion, there doesn't necessarily need to be an organised "resistance" because the elite are all self-serving and will ultimately do what they need to do to survive and remain rich and powerful. There will always be people moving in the shadows looking to take the throne and if they find backing of powerful people in high office, then just as with Putin, they could rise.

He is obviously a survivor, and maybe he does see this out and live to a grand old age, but he won't do so by continuing on this track.
 
RedRover said:
The concern over use of nuclear weapons is based on the idea that Putin is a madman who will ultimately be willing to risk it all and take the world down in flames if he has to. He might be, because if he loses this war, he's finished anyway. That risk doesn't apply to the people around him and it shows that he's not as all powerful as he might be assumed to be.

The narrative shifted last week with Zelensky and others making the point that Putin, not Russia, is the problem. It's targeted at people around him and the general population. There has been numerous articles the last few weeks about how mobilization has broken the social contract with the Russian people who willingly kept out of politics in return for an easy life. He's now asking them to go to war. Russia is a massive country, and there's a risk that as the war drags on and less young men come home public opinion will turn.

My opinion, there doesn't necessarily need to be an organised "resistance" because the elite are all self-serving and will ultimately do what they need to do to survive and remain rich and powerful. There will always be people moving in the shadows looking to take the throne and if they find backing of powerful people in high office, then just as with Putin, they could rise.

He is obviously a survivor, and maybe he does see this out and live to a grand old age, but he won't do so by continuing on this track.
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I'd obviously hope for the same outcome however all that I have read and also what Russians acquaintances have shared, is that it's not very realistic to expect a palace coup because he has spent decades shielding himself from such a possibility.
 
Eurotrash said:
Environmental blackmail maybe? I don't know if it is technically possible, but maybe Russia could turn on the gas on their end and it gushes out in the baltic sea?
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Looks like they might have done done exactly this on NS2. The gasflow had subsided. When the investigative team from Sweden approached, the gasflow increased again.
 
Eurotrash said:
Looks like they might have done done exactly this on NS2. The gasflow had subsided. When the investigative team from Sweden approached, the gasflow increased again.
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These feckers. I hope Putin gets thrown into the Gates of Hell gas crater.
 
calodo2003 said:
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The parody camp strikes again. :lol:

It is actually incredible how the corruption and incompetence has so thoroughly saturated all layers of the Russian state. I used to think of it as a kleptocracy in the sense of the top people being thieves. But Russia seems to be run on a wholly kleptocratic foundation. Everyone steals, your station simply determines how much. Is Russia basically a kleptocratic culture at this stage?

Easy to imagine what happened here. Some functionary snapped a photo of some winter uniforms taken from an open crate, in front of some other closed crates, reporting "1.5m uniforms present and accounted for", paid a few bribes downwards, a bigger bribe upwards and pocketed the difference himself from buying 15 uniforms and a bunch of crates, rather than 1.5m.
 
B20 said:
The parody camp strikes again. :lol:

It is actually incredible how the corruption and incompetence has so thoroughly saturated all layers of the Russian state. I used to think of it as a kleptocracy in the sense of the top people being thieves. But Russia seems to be run on a wholly kleptocratic foundation. Everyone steals, your station simply determines how much. Is Russia basically a kleptocratic culture at this stage?

Easy to imagine what happened here. Some functionary snapped a photo of some winter uniforms taken from an open crate, in front of some other closed crates, reporting "1.5m uniforms present and accounted for", paid a few bribes downwards, a bigger bribe upwards and pocketed the difference himself from buying 15 uniforms and a bunch of crates, rather than 1.5m.
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Basically nothing changed since the soviet era, hardly a surprise they want to restore it.
 
"in an interview with CNN‘s excellent Matthew Chance, Zelensky made it clear that he had actually accepted U.S. intelligence warning of a Russian invasion but wanted to downplay that so as not to tip off Russia to the fact that Ukrainians were furiously preparing a defense, deliberately trying to throw the Kremlin off so that if/when the invasion came, the Russians would be caught off guard, fall behind schedule, and sustain more casualties from a far more prepared Ukraine than anticipated, a point I have yet to see anyone else make."

https://realcontextnews.com/putins-zombie-russian-slavic-ethnonationalism-is-utterly-banal/
 
Ukrainian armed forces asked for operational silence (not sharing any speculation and information in the social media regarding the advances) from everyone at this time, it gives me a good feeling (considering the panic in russian chats I’m reading today across most fronts).
 
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