Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Kasparov has been saying for a long time that the price always goes up. The price the West has to pay to respond to Putin. He even wrote a book in 2015 where he described most of what we see today ("Winter is coming"). The more we wait, the more we will pay. We did nothing in 2008. Very little in 2014. And we sent helmets in January 2022. So many missed opportunities to respond in a way that will make the dictator worried. And the price we are paying always goes up.

That's what Kasparov says, not me. So far, it turns out he is correct. But the West does not seem to learn, many people are still worried about "escalation". It is the Russians who should worry about escalation, that's the essence of war. We keep telling ourselves that we are not in a war, while Putin keeps telling us he is in a war against us. And it is not just Ukraine, he has paid billions to try to undermine western democracies from the inside. But we refuse to accept the reality, because we just want to get back to our nice lives. It is okay if Ukrainians die, just don't escalate. And the price goes up.
 
If Russia throw all of their new recruits at the "annexed areas" pre-winter, would they be able to take them entirely?

I can see Putin thinking that the West will cede their support for Ukraine following the upcoming energy crisis this winter, when the fighting will largely cease, and wanting to strengthen his hand ASAP.
 
Raoul said:
I believe the bridge was deliberately not attacked to allow the Russians to eventually feck off out of Crimea. They should probably get rid of it now, that the Russians are clearly using it as a tool to further escalate.
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Only reason to leave it I can see. That, and not angering the locals by making it hard to get supplies.
 
goalscholes said:
If Russia throw all of their new recruits at the "annexed areas" pre-winter, would they be able to take them entirely?

I can see Putin thinking that the West will cede their support for Ukraine following the upcoming energy crisis this winter, when the fighting will largely cease, and wanting to strengthen his hand before then.
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What I hear is that these numbers won't make any difference, as they won't be trained and are without additional heavy weapons.
 
FYI for those suggesting that we just encourage Ukraine to hand over those parts of its country in search of “peace”:

 
Frosty said:
Well at some point we have to take a stand. There is no point giving Ukraine a single bullet if NATO is not willing to call Putin's bluffs. It is not like we have not had enough warnings. This is the same pattern of behaviour exhibited since he took power in 2000.
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Correct. It’s been brinksmanship from day one. The more you act scared or cautious, the more it simply emboldens him (Putin) - which is arguably why we are in this mess in the first place.

Set him a deadline. Say if you aren’t out of Ukraine (all of Ukraine) by the end of October, we are going to go in and force you out. And then stick to that.

If you really want to be clever and political about it then you can say “there is no official war therefore we are just going in for training exercises with a prospective NATO member”. Personally I wouldn’t bother with the pretence though.
 
Walrus said:
Correct. It’s been brinksmanship from day one. The more you act scared or cautious, the more it simply emboldens him (Putin) - which is arguably why we are in this mess in the first place.
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What do you propose?
 
GazTheLegend said:
All part of the charade. Probably doctrine. And Russia has been planning this for some years, sinisterly. I expect this was changed to give them a legal basis to nuke Ukraine. https://www.defensenews.com/global/...of-atomic-weapons-against-non-nuclear-strike/
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I keep reading this online but it makes no sense.

Putin is a dictator who can do whatever he likes. He needs no "legal" basis in his own country to do anything. The annexation is a nonsense, recognised by nobody but Russia so there is external legal basis. And whether "legal" or not, should he escalate he knows there will be a response which may well be the end for him personally and see the Russian Army put out of its misery in Ukraine.

Ukraine has attacked Crimea and Russian lands in the North and over stepped the red line repeatedly with no response. Russia threatened attacks against convoys supplying weapons in NATO countries and warned against continuing to arm Ukraine. Nothing has happened.

Annexation solves a problem for Putin at home, by giving him the ability to declare a victory and to justify his actions and all the dead soldiers. That's what the celebration today is about - a show of strength at home to try and appease the people. It doesn't make the use of tactical nuclear weapons carry any less consequences, militarily or politically.

He has only ever threatened and got his way. Now he isn't and doesn't know what to do. If he was really willing to die for this cause why not up the ante now? Or three months ago? Why risk a revolt in Russia by calling up conscripts?

His game is to wait it out. He thought the West was divided post Covid, Brexit and the various political discontent around Europe. He was wrong. It's the biggest misjudgement he could have made. He's now banking on the West getting bored with this and scared of energy prices climbing. He's a fool and the longer the sanctions are in place the closer he gets to whoever is next in line having him pushed out of a window. The air of invincibility is wearing off and the self serving people around him will only want to save their own skin. Eventually, the tide will turn. These are not committed nationalists - that's just convenient. They're gangsters and thieves.

He'll go the way many sad old dictators do, hopefully as painfully and in as much fear as possible.
 
spiriticon said:
A stalemate or frozen conflict only delays the problem by a few years. It is in his nature to recharge his army and strike again later. I was in shamefully favour of ceding Crimea in 2014 to satiate Putin because I didn't want my peaceful European life to be threatened. No more of that shite.

The question is "How do you make sure Putin never attacks Europe again"? Because he (or his underlings) will attack, again and again, always threatening nuclear war. And everytime he does, lots of people die, gas prices go crazy, economy crashes and everyone (who hasn't died) loses money.

How much land do we cede to him before he is satisfied? It's a tough conversation to have, but the Western leaders must decide at what point is a nuclear war worth having. Maybe Ukraine is not worth nuclear war, but is Poland worth it? Latvia? Estonia? Germany? France? UK?
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All of Europe joins NATO, that would probably do it.

What if Estonia, Latvia or Lithuanian weren't part of NATO, is there any change they wouldn't be occupied (or run by a puppet like Belarus)? And now we know he would have forced the population to mobilize for Russia, like a plague turning towns into zombie hoards.

Which is happening in occupied Ukraine, another sort of genocide.

I would hope recent history makes it clear that trying to appease the leadership of Russia is pointless, they want way more than Europe is willing to give and nothing less will sate them.

Knowing very little about the conflict in 2008, I thought it was about Russia wanting that naval base, being unwilling to lose it made sense to me. Media definitely let us down back then, falling to frame the situation accurately. They wouldn't even call the troops Russian for ages, like satellite footage wouldn't have shown them coming from Russia.
 
VorZakone said:
What do you propose?
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I edited my post with the following;

"Set him a deadline. Say if you aren’t out of Ukraine (all of Ukraine) by the end of October, we are going to go in and force you out. And then stick to that.

If you really want to be clever and political about it then you can say “there is no official war therefore we are just going in for training exercises with a prospective NATO member”. Personally I wouldn’t bother with the pretence though. "


Bla bla bla "have to stand up to bullies" bla bla bla. Caution and 'measured responses' only embolden and empower these sorts. There has to be a strong expectation and a strong response - that is the best deterrent. "If you want peace you must prepare for war".
 
frostbite said:
Kasparov has been saying for a long time that the price always goes up. The price the West has to pay to respond to Putin. He even wrote a book in 2015 where he described most of what we see today ("Winter is coming"). The more we wait, the more we will pay. We did nothing in 2008. Very little in 2014. And we sent helmets in January 2022. So many missed opportunities to respond in a way that will make the dictator worried. And the price we are paying always goes up.

That's what Kasparov says, not me. So far, it turns out he is correct. But the West does not seem to learn, many people are still worried about "escalation". It is the Russians who should worry about escalation, that's the essence of war. We keep telling ourselves that we are not in a war, while Putin keeps telling us he is in a war against us. And it is not just Ukraine, he has paid billions to try to undermine western democracies from the inside. But we refuse to accept the reality, because we just want to get back to our nice lives. It is okay if Ukrainians die, just don't escalate. And the price goes up.
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I think the dictator is worried right about now though. Understand the sentiment but the West has taken action this time around and Russian forces are being ran out of Ukraine as we speak.
 
Walrus said:
I edited my post with the following;

"Set him a deadline. Say if you aren’t out of Ukraine (all of Ukraine) by the end of October, we are going to go in and force you out. And then stick to that.

If you really want to be clever and political about it then you can say “there is no official war therefore we are just going in for training exercises with a prospective NATO member”. Personally I wouldn’t bother with the pretence though. "


Bla bla bla "have to stand up to bullies" bla bla bla. Caution and 'measured responses' only embolden and empower these sorts. There has to be a strong expectation and a strong response - that is the best deterrent. "If you want peace you must prepare for war".
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In other words, be willing to fight Russia? Because if Russia doesn't adhere to your ultimatum, you have to actually fight them, otherwise it's just a bluff that Russia called.
 
stefan92 said:
I honestly don't understand why so many seem to care about the Russian constitution...

A new regime would likely change it anyways.
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Exactly! This whole thing ends with Putin.

And there is no way out of this for him. It only ends with him dead... in my opinion, that's what he told us today.

Unfortunately, Putin has killed or jailed everyone with opposite ideas. So, he is surrounded with kiss ass idiots who are totally dependent on him for their positions. That's why nobody killed him yet. However, if they are stupid enough to throw 300K unprepared soldiers and they have monumental loses, hopefully someone will put Putin out of his misery.

So, the West has to provide weapons, Germany should provide Leopard tanks, and USA should provide F-16 jets, we are past "escalation" fears, we have to support Ukraine 100%.
 
@RedRover why do we care about the Russian constitution? Maybe because it's not FOR you or me, it's for the Russian people. Who I attribute to the old "boiled frog" theory if you look that up. Ratchet the heat up slowly and the frogs won't even notice.
 
GazTheLegend said:
@RG77 I fear if NATO goes in, the time for sanctions would be well and truly over. They'd decapitate the entire govt of Russia, sink their whole fleet, and wipe their entire army off the face of planet earth within a few weeks. But a flailing enemy with nuclear submarines and ICBM's isn't something you want to mess with, let's be real, and our infrastructure and world couldn't be the same afterward
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It is an interesting thought experiment, I'm just going by how NATO has responded thus far. But you could be right, in case of a nuclear bomb I do expect NATO to get into Ukraine but still maybe not crossing the border into Russia and trying to opt for a more conventional approach with North-Korea type of sanctions (bare minimum really). But that's all guess work to be honest.

I do feel it is a fear that has been living much more in West-Europe/US than in East-Europe. And as a result you see a lot of appeasement, which simply never has worked.

Russia only understands one thing: power. They do what they can away with until they get punched on the nose. Showing weakness allows them to continue their atrocities. They aren't interested in an actual dialogue, they don't have any fears about NATO attacking them, they won't be satisfied 'if we just give in and let them have part of Ukraine'. All a bunch of lies and the tankies/useful idiots are part of that strategy. They made it very clear this is about restoring what they deem is Russian land and will slaughter and repress anyone needed.

We are at war, it is just Ukraine paying with blood and the rest with money.
 
frostbite said:
Exactly! This whole thing ends with Putin.

And there is no way out of this for him. It only ends with him dead... in my opinion, that's what he told us today.

Unfortunately, Putin has killed or jailed everyone with opposite ideas. So, he is surrounded with kiss ass idiots who are totally dependent on him for their positions. That's why nobody killed him yet. However, if they are stupid enough to throw 300K unprepared soldiers and they have monumental loses, hopefully someone will put Putin out of his misery.

So, the West has to provide weapons, Germany should provide Leopard tanks, and USA should provide F-16 jets, we are past "escalation" fears, we have to support Ukraine 100%.
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The West is providing weapons? You want more to be done. It’s like a game of chess. Let’s see if Russia do escalate things because current it is losing the war.
 
Walrus said:
The point of a nuclear deterrent is simply that - a deterrent. As soon as Putin actually uses nukes, then the deterrents have failed and there is zero reason not to put boots on the ground to destroy the Russian armed forces and capability to rebuild.

I was an advocate at the start of the war for NATO to step in and establish a no-fly zone, and kick the Russians out of Ukraine. This was called warmongering and yet, here we are over 6 months later, with thousands of innocents killed, potentially doing the same thing anyway. I don’t think Putin was ever going to risk nuclear war over Ukraine. As long as NATO aren’t marching on Moscow, he has no incentive to do so.
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I agree with you.

Actually, if NATO used its Air Force in March, when the Russian encirclement of Kiev had already failed, I think it would be a great way out for Putin too. He would claim that he cannot wage war against all of NATO. On the other hand, it was impossible for him to accept that he lost to Ukraine alone. That's why his propagandists are always saying that the war is against NATO.

The West was too timid, and many people died and will continue to die because of this. A show of force in the first few weeks would end things right there. Unfortunately, Scholz, Macron, Biden, etc are weak leaders. And there is no consensus in the West. Ukrainians pay for this with their blood.
 
GazTheLegend said:
@RedRover why do we care about the Russian constitution? Maybe because it's not FOR you or me, it's for the Russian people. Who I attribute to the old "boiled frog" theory if you look that up. Ratchet the heat up slowly and the frogs won't even notice.
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No doubt - it's a ploy the West have used in this conflict as well: keep supplying ever more useful weapons to Ukraine over and extended period and they're well past the red lines Russia set at the outset.
 
TMDaines said:
FYI for those suggesting that we just encourage Ukraine to hand over those parts of its country in search of “peace”:

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Also him
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Rajma said:
NATO won’t get involved, I think the US will act on their own accord to not destabilize Europe. Even Putin understands he wouldn’t want to face US in standalone fight.
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After hearing comments from the head of NATO tonight I’m convinced of this now, that US made it clear to the partners that it will take care of this by themselves not to drag Europe into the war.
 
VorZakone said:
In other words, be willing to fight Russia? Because if Russia doesn't adhere to your ultimatum, you have to actually fight them, otherwise it's just a bluff that Russia called.
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Yes. If you arent willing to fight them then they have already won. What after Ukraine? The Baltics? Estonia? Poland? Or is it only when they arrive on your doorstep (not you personally, I dont know where you are from) that action needs to be taken?
 
Gehrman said:
Yeah footie tournament is to blame.
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That’s not what I said, and you surely know it. I’m saying that it was batshit that four years after them invading and annexing parts of Ukraine, the entire West pretended it didn’t happen and we all went and played a major sporting event there, with all the kudos that brought.

In Britain I remember more oppositon to Euro 2012 in Ukraine when Sol Campbell went on the TV and told black people they would be killed if they went over there. I barely took my wife seriously at her thoughts that the Russian World Cup should be boycotted. No wonder Putin feels like he can invade, seize land and the world will very quickly forget.
 
Walrus said:
Yes. If you arent willing to fight them then they have already won. What after Ukraine? The Baltics? Estonia? Poland? Or is it only when they arrive on your doorstep (not you personally, I dont know where you are from) that action needs to be taken?
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100%, and my home is in the city that’s like 30km from Belarus (defacto Russian) border but the line needs to be drawn now.
 
how does this end without a nuke being dropped now?
Conventional warfare will inevitably end with Russia’s defeat.
I don’t think putin will run away with his tail between his legs or admit any sort of defeat as that would spell the end of him and the power that he has.
I was born in 76 and remember being afraid of nuclear war as a child (especially with a father in the army) but I think we are closer to something cataclysmic now then at any time I remember before.
It may very well be necessary depending on what happens over the next few months and I’m fully behind not allowing putin to strong arm anyone into backing down but it feels like this war might come a lot closer to home than it has so far pretty quickly.
 
So did anyone jump to congratulate Putin & Russia with this amazing achievement? Apart from Lukashenko of course.
 
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