Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

MTF said:
One of the main risks is if Ukraine's own lines, where they're advancing and also where they're static, are too thin and therefore vulnerable to counter-attack even by a limited Russian force. Since the beginning of this there's very little insight into the strength of the Ukrainian Army, particularly what sort of numbers and capabilities it has augmented to via mobilization/recruitment, but also the losses suffered in the past 6 months. I'm hoping that they're not endeavoring on this offensive with insufficient numbers, although their command has seemed pretty effective in this war so that would suggest they know what they're doing.
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While that’s true in theory can you see incompetent Russian commanders launching any kind of coordinated counteroffensive in this chaos with broken communication lines?
 
Raoul said:
The real danger will come as Putin begins to realize he's losing and will be incentivized to use more powerful weapons. If the Ukrainians happen to repel the Russians back to their borders, Putin will be confronted by the domestic reality of having sent over 50k Russians to their deaths and at least double that amount wounded, all the while having depleted his own conventional weapons, while getting sanctioned by the rest of the world and leaving his own economy in ruins. That is when he will be at his most dangerous.
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Yup, it's shaping up to be a catastrophic failure, unless Putin finds a way to reverse Ukrainian gains. And god knows how he can do that without extra mobilization.

Shortly after the invasion, when things slowly turned into a stalemate, my guess was that they'd negotiate a ceasefire in which the Russians would control the south and east, essentially splitting the country. But after what we've seen now, there's just no way the Ukrainians will agree to that, they will absolutely try to take back every single inch of occupied territory excluding Crimea. So that scenario (a country split) is out of the window.
 
MTF said:
One of the main risks is if Ukraine's own lines, where they're advancing and also where they're static, are too thin and therefore vulnerable to counter-attack even by a limited Russian force. Since the beginning of this there's very little insight into the strength of the Ukrainian Army, particularly what sort of numbers and capabilities it has augmented to via mobilization/recruitment, but also the losses suffered in the past 6 months. I'm hoping that they're not endeavoring on this offensive with insufficient numbers, although their command has seemed pretty effective in this war so that would suggest they know what they're doing.
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By all accounts, Kharkiv was one of the better defended frontlines with significant manpower allocated to it's defense. Proximity to russian border, Kupyansk/Izium logistical hubs and static frontline with a rare ukrainian land liberation, while Russia was on the front foot, months ago, would point to Ukrainians having upper hand in the area even before russians shifted south.
 
MTF said:
What does it sort of mean?
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"Sturmreif schießen" literally translates to "storm-ripe shoot", meaning shooting something until it is ripe/ready to be stormed. As English is usually a bit shorter than German I was surprised as I realised there isn't such a short expression for this in English, at least not to my knowledge.
 
Putin's gamble has always been that the Russians can last longer than the Ukrainians and, more likely, their allies. He expected that eventually high gas prices and other expenses would force the Europeans, particularly, to capitulate and end support for Ukraine. While it seems he is ready to stay the course on the invasion, it's becoming clear that his military isn't capable of holding its gains, much less advancing. If the "Separatists" completely collapse in Kharkiv and Donetsk, Putin doesn't have the forces to make up for them.
 
Seems more and more likely that the Russian army totally collapsed in the Izyum area. Just read an overview someone made based on Russian (and therefore pro-Russian!) Telegram Channels, however in German so I won't link it here... Key takeaways for the current situation:

- Izyum is attacked from the North (Kupyansk direction, Kupyansk itself seems to be already taken, at least partially)
- it is also attacked from the East (Oskil/Lyman direction - where did the Ukrainians there come from? Must have moved quite fast to get there. There was a bridgehead established some days ago, but an attack from that direction on Izyum means that they just blasted through/around Lyman)
- further attacks from the South are reported (no surprise here, the nearest front to Izyum)

So it looks like Izyum is completely encircled, the Russian command got evacuated and up to 20k troops are left there in chaos, a lot of them seem to capitulate now. Seems like an absolute disaster for Russia if all this should be confirmed.

Meanwhile there seem to be first rumours of a "massive Ukraine breakthrough" in the Kherson region...

In general the mood in those channels seems to be at absolute zero now.
 
Ah it would have been amusing to let Pax in the thread for tonight.
"Izium front is collapsing "
"Proof mate?"
 
Bosnian_fan said:
Sadly, I can't enjoy this as much as I would like.

This might be slightly off-topic, but not completely, and I'm just going to write it here to show you how difficult it is to deal with Russian satellite states.

As most of you are probably well aware by now, Bosnia is made od two entities, one of which (Republic of Srpska) is completely pro-Russian. Serbs gained it in 1992-1995 war, effectively splitting country in two parts, and the separation is visible in every possible way. To cut the long story short, Serbs have a long term goal of separating from Bosnia, and in order to do so, they are attempting to prove every day that coexistence is impossible.

Serbia is Russian ally, and has instigated a lot of political unrest in Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro recently, with a long term goal of creating Greater Serbia, a country in which all Serbs would live. Of course, it has large parts of neighbouring countries in it.

Now, as I said, nothing is immune to this political divide. Bosniaks and Croats (well, mostly) are pro-European, pro-EU and pro-NATO, as we are well aware that it is our only way of survival to integrate into Europe and western civilization. But we can't make any decision without acceptance of Serbs. And they are not pro EU and are definitely anti-NATO, spewing some neutrality shite and hoping that Serbia will one day walk in there and liberate them the same way Russia is liberating Ukraine. Infact, there are lot of similarities in Russian and Serbian propaganda and war doctrine.

Information has come out today that Bosnian FA has accepted invitation from Russia to play a friendly in november in St. Petersburg. That was made possible by the fact that FA is now run by Serbs due to the rotation policy in Presidency. Vico Zeljkovic is president now, he is nephew of Serbian leader Milorad Dodik and yields a great amount of power. Dodik is Putin's lapdog.

I know football is not important, but this is football forum and I'm taking a wild guess many will see in november that Bosnia is playing Russia and take a guess that we are pro-Russian oriented. I just wanted to move your attention to the fact that we aren't. At least majority isn't. Serbs are. And their attempts to break away from Bosnia are well supported by Russia.

Once again, someone may dismiss this writing as bollocks and offtopic, but to me it isn't. I see this as just another step in attempting to cut us off from west and keep us in Russian sphere of interest. We don't want that, we need people to know where we stand but also that our hands are tied.
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I think we all see what Russia is trying to do, but thankfully many of your top footballers are already pushing back.
 
TMDaines said:
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:lol: What a slimeball. Russians proper done him over here.

From his channel: " After a few days in the cells I was taken to an office of an MVD officer ( ministry of internal affairs ) who said 'Whether you get just a fine or a long prison stretch depends on how sorry you are for what you said and your justification for saying it.' In that moment you have a decision to make: either be a hero and get five years in a concrete cell or say 'Glory to Putin!' and go home to enjoy your life with your family and friends again. I took the second option without hesitation which is why I'm writing this from my comfy bed and not from a concrete cell in Birobidzhan. I'm not Russian or Ukrainian and won't be martyring myself for any of their causes. The only shield I'll ever fall on will be covered in the Union flag. (UK) "
 


Shame there’s no immunity for Russian legislators like there is in civilized countries.
 
  • The European Commission has urged EU states to reassess the terms on which they grant visas to Russian travellers and to root out applicants that pose a security threat. “We should not be naive, Putin’s aim is to destroy the EU and he would like to attack us where we are weakest,” the EU home affairs commissioner, Ylva Johansson, said on Friday.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...atest-what-we-know-on-day-199-of-the-invasion

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"We should not be naive, Putin’s aim is to destroy the EU"... no shite Sherlock!...
 
Simbo said:
@harms Anything in this?
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It’s legit but municipal deputies don’t hold any political power — they can install a bench in a park, that kind of stuff.


Sir Matt said:


Shame there’s no immunity for Russian legislators like there is in civilized countries.
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This tweet is wrong though. They’re not in Duma, those are municipal deputies — they’ve sent that request to Duma, although knowing full well that it won’t amount to anything.

All 7 deputies already have been accused of discrediting the army (which is now a legal offense), thankfully it looks like it’s an administrative case and not a criminal one — at least for now.
 
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Ukrainians in the city of Kupyansk, not clear so far how much of it is taken back but we should learn soon enough.

 
Word on the street is that Izium has been abandoned by RF forces which are either frantically retreating to Luhansk direction under heavy fire of Ukrainian forces or surrendering en masse. Confirmations should follow later but fingers crossed.
 
McGrathsipan said:
Is this going to last years?
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Sorry but what kind of question is that atm? It's going to last as long as it's needed to liberate all of Ukraine and throw the Orcs into the bin - seeing how fast the advances are going atm it's weird to assume it's taking years.
 
JuriM said:
Sorry but what kind of question is that atm? It's going to last as long as it's needed to liberate all of Ukraine and throw the Orcs into the bin - seeing how fast the advances are going atm it's weird to assume it's taking years.
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Sorry its a poorly put question.
What I mean is even if Ukraine take back occupied territory will Russia just keep rearming and keep coming back?
Is the whole war likely to last years
 
McGrathsipan said:
Sorry its a poorly put question.
What I mean is even if Ukraine take back occupied territory will Russia just keep rearming and keep coming back?
Is the whole war likely to last years
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There are historical precedents. Soviets were 10 years in Afghanistan for example. These things can potentially last years and there's already been experts saying this will at least continue in 2023.

So to answer your question: we can't say for sure, but it wouldn't necessarily be surprising if it indeed lasts years.
 
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