Bellingcat guy also reporting it.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Why should they deny it and why shouldn't they attack it either?
‘You can’t fight in here, this is the war room!’
I don't understand what you mean? The US of course has invaded countries that are in other regions. Iraq and Afghanistan. NATO has invaded Afghanistan too. Or rather taken over the mission in Afghanistan so it's not a defensive organization.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US invasion of Iraq should be condemned equally. Both are violent acts of war.
I assumed they would deny it if it wasn't them:
It absolutely is a legitimate target, but I would have expected the Ukrainians, if and when they attack it, to go with more than a single drone.
An immune disorder that's contagious? Hm.
I suppose they mean that he isn't immune to Novichok.
I don't get it either. Ever since Russia began the invasion, I don't think anyone sane would expect Ukraine to not fire back into Crimea if they get the right weapons to do so (which they do now). I cannot tell how many ships are still left in that naval base, but Sevastopol remains as huge of a target as Pearl Harbor would be if an enemy has the resources and the guts to attack it.
I see firing into Crimea and launching sabotage attacks against Russian naval assets docked in Sevastopol as being a bit different. Zelenskyy has been pretty good about selectively going after ammo depots and Russian military targets so far without doing something like attacking Crimea proper that would incentive Putin to escalate with more destructive weapons (such as thermobarics). I think the Ukrainians have so far done a good job of mitigating that risk by sticking to military targets.
Thread on why Russian weapons may be underperforming:
Fascinating read. Their approach to military technology matches their approach to military training. “Individually, they work as intended, but when paired together with things they don’t.”
Very interesting insights. Some comments:
1. The "4 bolts are gonna crack, so let's put 8 instead" is very on point to other Soviet/Russian engineering, eg. nuclear reactor design: a wall needs to be somewhere above half a meter thick for optimum safety/cost efficiency but we can't calculate how much exactly so we make it 1 meter thick and that's that.
2. The abundance of controls on the more sophisticated systems is similar to any other Soviet professional equipment - lack of embedded computing and in general subpar digital electronics make for terrible UX , because you need to perform 10 button toggles which would have been automated in the US made equivalent for example. This is slightly different outcome to what the tweet author described, but it is also different types of application.
3. Using pre 1986 maps of Chernobyl area is so mad I almost can't believe it. Almost.
If you consider these to be decent answers it says more about you than about this thread.
A memo to Soviet Union minister saying that NATO won't move forces to East Germany after reunification is not equivalent to treaty saying that NATO will not accept any new members. It's really not that complicated.
What happens in environments where no one can be honest.
Where the feck will this end.
The West will never run out of money to supply arms and it appears Russia aren't affected by sanctions at all.
How long can this last or will it take until Ukraine is totally made defunct before Russia pull back.
The West will never run out of money to supply arms and it appears Russia aren't affected by sanctions at all.
How long can this last or will it take until Ukraine is totally made defunct before Russia pull back.
There is also the fact that Russia may use chemical weapons if they start really losing ground. They know that the west is to feckless(or are too scared of the possibility of nuclear war) to directely intervene.
Russia pushing on and persevering in spite of the sanctions does not mean they are not affected at all. There's plenty of research on this subject.
Here's a 10-day old, Yale research paper on how sanctions are crippling their economy:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193
PS: Expectations that sanctions would immediately affect their war efforts were wide off the mark from the start. Sanctions tend to affect the medium term. Not the short term.
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Whoa… are they gonna sail those up the NATO Black Sea coast to Odessa under the UK flag?
suspect, they will be handed over in port somewhere and the Ukranians will sail in under a Ukranian flag
In a Ukrainian port or in a UK port and then sailed under a Ukrainian flag across the Black Sea?
Because I can see a lot of ways that scenario 2 doesn’t go well.
Im not sure there is a safe Ukrainian port... certainly we are sending in everything by land so I would imagine hand over in international waters, Uk port or perhaps somewhere in the med - italy, gibralta
Anything you look at there at the moment you take the attitude it goes in with a target on it but its better than not helping
I'd say they just announced that they will give the ships after war is done? Ukraine has said numerous times, they don't fancy doing any de-mining right now as orcs tend to be unpredictable.
Yeah I get that everything is a target, but sending arms and vehicles across land borders is a bit different than sailing them through the confined waters of the Mediterranean, very close to the Russian sub port at Tartus, and then up the Bosporus and then across a Black Sea that’s almost a Russian lake.
I’ve always felt that ships were basically off the table as something to realistically send Ukraine.
Thread from pro-Ukrainian Australian ex-Army Major on Ukrainian military strategy, including how they ended up fighting the war Russia wanted them to fight in the Donbass:
that's exactly what i said if you follow the logic of the post.
it went back on its understanding. you can pretend otherwise but it's dishonest and i don't see the reason in doing it because nato's expansion doesn't change the ultimate conclusion. but my post was basically a decision tree in text form which always leads to "russian preemptive war = unjustified".
anyway will ignore replies plus thread as this has become more of wedge-issue than anything else. when not about direct news updates at least which i'm myself not contributing to either rn.
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This was a solid read. Nice to see BH Liddell Hart getting some love in there
With this musical chair game between Eastern Ukraine and Southern Ukraine, you have to wonder how long until both fronts collapse from the Russian perspective.
A really stark contrast with the British soldiers following a Stuka strike on the beaches of Dunkirk.
I think it may happen sooner rather than later given that beyond already being depleted, they are also struggling to deal with US weapons now in the hands of Ukrainians.