Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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What happened to Glaston , this thread is getting bumped much more rarely now...
Did Spurs preseaon friendlies start already?
Agreed. Though I doubt there's much decibel reduction from the muzzle device. In that use case it's going to be used to hide the flash and therby the sniper's location.
Fantastic news. What does that actually mean for Ukraine right now? Do they get some degree of protection from an outsider aggresion that they didn't have before? Or an easier path for getting humanitary aid?
I didn't write the Article. Svitlana did
The only protection they could get would be from Article 5 collective security, which the EU can’t offer. And any security benefits of being in the EU are already in action via individual member state support to Ukraine from various EU nations.
Thanks. So, OK-ish news?
I imagine that a full membership without a secured border is unfeasible for the EU, so an end of the war is mandatory for Ukraine to join. Maybe that would take a couple of years.
Yeah, that's good news. My cynical comments about the Netherlands from a pages ago have turned out to be (largely) incorrect.
I think it mostly gives the countries a concrete path to EU membership, with requirements and milestones. That doesn't do anything in the right-now, but it's a significant step in the long-term journey to EU membership.
Probably much more than a couple of years. To become a member, Ukraine and Moldova will need to reach set levels in terms of democratic values, human rights, and the economy, and adopt EU laws and regulations. That can take very long indeed, especially for these two, cause the reason why their candidate-member status was in question, was because they were both considered to be very far from reaching this membership treshold. So don't count on membership before 2030, I'd say.
(For extreme examples, Turkey has been a candidate member since 1999 and Serbia since 2005 - but their delay is more complicated of course. There's a list of candidate members (not yet including Ukraine and Moldova) here, with further information.)
It's meaningless news. Like so much of the last 4 months, it's an empty gesture made with an eye on what is tweetable. Its only value is in how much Boris and the rest of the British government will be raging right now (back in March Boris compared Ukraine's literally existential fight to not have its population be systematically murdered by an invading force to the UK's heroic Brexit struggle*. Now his new best/only geopolitical friend is joining his nemesis and all those juicy reconstruction contracts he was banking on just got a hell of a lot more complicated).
Nobody wanted Ukraine in the EU prior to February 24th and nobody wants it now, despite all the grand statements, least of all those who pay for the EU. Those who matter in the EU know that there is a less than 2% chance Ukraine will be able to join them this side of 2030 (it took the last country to join over a decade to do so; Ukraine prior to Feb 24th was the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe after Russia, it will take decades to make the place EU-capable). All these unelected stuffed shirts (Ursula von der Leyen, Josep Borrel, Charles Michel) will not be there in a few years' time, they can say whatever populist headline-baiting nonsense they want about how "We will be with Ukraine throughout their journey, they belong in Europe!" It doesn't change the fact that it isn't going to happen within the next 15 to 20 years at least (as Macron and Sholtz themselves have been saying), and that's assuming there's even a 'Ukraine' in 5 years' time, which isn't certain (and in my opinion is actually unlikely, but suggesting this has seen me called a c*nt in this thread before so that's as far as I'll go with it).
* https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-60810168
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I'm just now back from a week away on a Greek island - time away that included a break from all social media.
Yeah, that's good news. My cynical comments about the Netherlands from a pages ago have turned out to be (largely) incorrect.
I think it mostly gives the countries a concrete path to EU membership, with requirements and milestones. That doesn't do anything in the right-now, but it's a significant step in the long-term journey to EU membership.
I'm not so sure the step is significant, though maybe it is. Given that it's a very long way from candidate to member, and that Ukraine is extremely far from qualifying in normal circumstances, I think it's reasonably likely that this is a purely symbolic gesture. If the EU is prepared to drastically lower criteria for Ukraine specifically then ok, but if not then Ukraine will have to do a lot and if they manage to start that journey they'd presumably gain candidate status on merit anyway along the way. I'm not that familiar with the process, though, so I could be talking nonsense.
It's been mooted for a while and you have to remember there have been pro Russia govs in place (who no doubt did as much as they could to hinder things) before the revolution - really it's flipping the middle finger to Putin by Germany (I think Germany and Netherlands previously were main countries against the addition) but agreed it's likely symbolic until the war is over.
No, it is great news. Nobody saw Ukraine getting candidacy for the EU in 2022 or anytime soon before this war. It means that Euromaidan and everything else since has brought them closer. There’s still a long way to go, but Ukraine has never been closer to the EU.
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That's because nobody saw Ukraine being invaded and reduced to rubble in 2022, but that doesn't change the fact that it is still only a media-oriented gesture of solidarity. Morally very important but practically meaningless. At this point the EU Commission can say nothing other than "Sure, we'll accept you as a candidate", it would look absolutely terrible if they said anything different. "Sorry, you still have at least 15 years' work to do, you're still in Kolomoiyskiy's pocket, Zelenskiy!" would invalidate literally everything else they've been saying about how "Ukraine will win so long as we stay unified!" Despite what you wrote in your last line, Ukraine has never been further from joining the EU than it is today. I guarantee you that the likes of Germany, France and Italy do NOT want Ukraine in the EU, now even more so than before February 24th. And as I wrote before, the UK (the government, not the people) is absolutely gutted right now about today's 'decision', empty gesture or not. I can't wait for a Cabinet member (Truss or Wallace would be great, Boris beyond my wildest dreams) to be asked for their thoughts on the EU giving candidate status to Ukraine.
You’re getting very worked up about it in the small hours of your morning. Nighty nighty.
Quality control
I always forget, anything remotely approaching actual conversation is above your paygrade isn't it? You prefer the terse and pithy social media one-liners.
Not to worry, Glaston's back, he'll tell you all about what Russian tanks were blown up today and when Putin's going to die of cancer. This thread had a decent week, back to normal now. Nighty nighty as you say.
It's a token gesture but a good one. Candidate status for nato would be interesting if it existed
With different terminology it was essentially offered by George W Bush back in 2008 (shortly after Putin's Munich speech), hence this war now.
This guy is not popular in the West now because he veers from the fatuous 'good v evil' Disney narrative, but these 2 minutes and 41 seconds are worth your time:
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Tweet thread goes on for 12 tweets and is well worth the time.
One last post for tonight and then I really will bid 'nighty night' to that chap up there. It's prompted by the return of Glaston, whose 8000 indiscriminate tweets a day I cannot claim to have missed.
Remember how about 6 weeks back someone posted a tweet (from a person with almost no followers) about how the Russian army had anally raped 2 twin toddlers to death? Certain posters came in here and said that "orcs" deserve to be tortured and buried alive (I sincerely don't think people who claim to be most opposed to fascists realise how susceptible they are to becoming them).
I then made my first post in this thread asking if people ever considered that maybe such cartoonish reports were not actually true, and I was called a Kremlin-bot c*nt for doing so.
The reason I mention this is because you may have noticed a severe drop-off in the number of reports of Russian soldiers anally gang-raping children to death over the last month. During the first 2 months of the war the media was full of reports of this war crime, that atrocity, this child rape, that child rape. But of late...nothing. It's almost like the Russian army raped themselves out in the first emotional 6 weeks of the war.
Well, a few weeks ago the Ukrainian Parliament fired their commissioner for human rights, Lyudmila Denisova (the woman cited in numerous tweets on here back in March and April, including the "anal raping of twin todders" tweet that turned some posters on here into fascists).
https://www.newsweek.com/lyudmila-d...removed-russian-sexual-assault-claims-1711680
They fired her because she admitted to making stuff up about rapes, sexual violence and war crimes (her impeccable reasoning for doing so was: "It got us the attention of the Western media"). The Ukrainian Parliament said that it was detrimental to their cause to have blatantly untrue nonsense promulgated by their own government, even if it did find an audience among Western social media users with piss-poor critical thinking skills who instantly retweet it all to foment psychotic outbursts in credulous idiots.
I know what reaction this post will get from the usual suspects, and I really don't care anymore. Some of you need to know this stuff, because it sure as hell won't be posted by Glaston and the like.
Nighty night, TM.
Remember how about 6 weeks back someone posted a tweet (from a person with almost no followers) about how the Russian army had anally raped 2 twin toddlers to death? Certain posters came in here and said that "orcs" deserve to be tortured and buried alive (I sincerely don't think people who claim to be most opposed to fascists realise how susceptible they are to becoming them).
I then made my first post in this thread asking if people ever considered that maybe such cartoonish reports were not actually true, and I was called a Kremlin-bot c*nt for doing so.
The reason I mention this is because you may have noticed a severe drop-off in the number of reports of Russian soldiers anally gang-raping children to death over the last month. During the first 2 months of the war the media was full of reports of this war crime, that atrocity, this child rape, that child rape. But of late...nothing. It's almost like the Russian army raped themselves out in the first emotional 6 weeks of the war.
Well, a few weeks ago the Ukrainian Parliament fired their commissioner for human rights, Lyudmila Denisova (the woman cited in numerous tweets on here back in March and April, including the "anal raping of twin todders" tweet that turned some posters on here into fascists).
https://www.newsweek.com/lyudmila-d...removed-russian-sexual-assault-claims-1711680
They fired her because she admitted to making stuff up about rapes, sexual violence and war crimes (her impeccable reasoning for doing so was: "It got us the attention of the Western media"). The Ukrainian Parliament said that it was detrimental to their cause to have blatantly untrue nonsense promulgated by their own government, even if it did find an audience among Western social media users with piss-poor critical thinking skills who instantly retweet it all to foment psychotic outbursts in credulous idiots.
I know what reaction this post will get from the usual suspects, and I really don't care anymore. Some of you need to know this stuff, because it sure as hell won't be posted by Glaston and the like.
Nighty night, TM.
Think of what it means to the Ukrainian people, after everything they stood up to in 2014 and beyond. It may be a gesture, but it is a significant one to them.
Not to worry (if you want Russia to win), because DT12 said on June 4th that "Donbas would fall to Russia by the end of June" and (also on June 4th) eagerly misquoted the UK MOD to claim that Russia will take all of Luhansk within the next 2 weeks.
Well, here we are almost 3 weeks later and all of Luhansk still has not been taken, far less the entire Donbas ... so the Russians better get their skates on because, according to DT12, there are only 7 days remaining before the Donbas falls.
Luhansk is 95% in Russian control. Donetsk is 55% under Russian control. Those are the facts and they are in line with my predictions 3 weeks ago.
You on the other hand claimed that your psychic friend said Putin is finally going to succumb to his cocktail of bowel, bladder, bone, brain and bollock cancer, and to my eyes he looked fighting fit at the BRICS conference today.
But like I said, you're back now and I yield the thread to you, what you do here is what most people come looking for.
Got a link to the percentages? I haven't been following recent events all that much.
Deliberately posting the most pro-Ukrainian source:
https://kyivindependent.com/post/governor-ukraine-controls-nearly-45-of-donetsk-oblast
(but all the major networks have the same figures. Luhansk is about to fall - only a small group of fighters in Severodonetsk remain - and Donetsk is being chewed up day by day)
No need for percentages with Donbas - that’s one town away from being under Russian control. Donetsk though I’ve seen 45% pop up, obviously much more fighting to happen there. Seems the gamble is hoping they tie up Putin in the East and can retake Kherson where they’ve made gains. I’m amazed how long it taking Russia to be honest but attrition for both sides must be horrendous.
95% control of Luhansk is pretty much what the Russians had nearly 3 weeks ago. You claimed they'd have it all inside 2 weeks from June 4th.
If Donetsk is 55% under Russian control, that means they must take take the remaining 45% (and the rest of Luhansk) inside the next 7 days if your claim is to come true. Clearly this won't happen.
But rather than admit that both your claims have collapsed, you come out with obvious bollocks, namely that what has happened is "in line with my [i.e. your] predictions 3 weeks ago."
'Donbas' is the regions of Luhansk and Donestsk. I think in the sentence I've underlined you meant to write "Luhansk" rather than "Donbas"
This is not the the case. If you meant the Luhansk region of the Donbas, then the Russians still need to take two towns/cities: Severodonetsk and Lysychansk
Yes, exactly that. Luhansk is essentially occupied, Donetsk under a lot of pressure.
It sounds like the Russians have just shelled Lysychansk non stop, I’m not sure how much of a town is left to be honest. Severodonetsk is 85% (and that’s pro Ukraine media) controlled by Russians and have also seen a lot of reports about Ukrainian fall backs across the East.
Russia controlled nowhere close to 95% of Luhansk 3 weeks ago. Are you taking this nonsense from the same place you took the claim that the Russian army would collapse within 2 weeks back in March because its "only tank factory" could no longer service the military? The claim you posted on 3 separate occasions before someone had to step in and tell you that you needed to start looking at the dates of the tweets you were posting?
Christ I can't believe I'm getting bogged down with someone like you. I'm serious, the thread is yours, knock yourself out, you're what's looked for here. Someone who for years has been the laughing stock of this forum for his batshit insane ideas is now the go-to for unimaginably complex geopolitical matters. It's somehow fitting for the world in which we live.
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3 weeks ago, Russia essentially needed to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in order to control all of Luhansk. They still need to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Deliberate misquoting seems to be your stock-in-trade. I didn't say back in March (or at any other time) that the Russian army would collapse within 2 weeks, but again you seem to think that a tweet from someone else is the same thing as a tweet from me (I don't even have a personal Twitter account).
What I have said is that Russia will not win this war, is well on course to have a shrivelled GDP that will soon be less than that of even Holland, and is suffering massive losses of men and equipment that will take decades to recover from, if it ever does. Russia's future now is essentially that of junior partner to China.