Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[NLunited]

You seem to project his willingness to enrich himself personally (which is undeniable) onto his geopolitical interests but those are not the same. Not to mention that he's already one of, if not the wealthiest individual on the planet — various people estimated his wealth to be north of 200 billion in 2022 (it's probably less now but figuring out Putin's net worth is, according to Forbes: “probably the most elusive riddle in wealth hunting”); he's not in a dire need of another influx of cash, especially since doing so will most likely influence his existing wealth — sanctions, the course of the ruble etc.

He's very interested in personal enrichment. But even the said palace represents a shift in his personal views on wealth. It's not about the money anymore (and it very much was in the 90's — in Sobchak's office or in KGB; in the 00's with the big reshuffle of an established wealth, the war on oligarchy and, well, the new oligarchy that grew out of it — Putin, "Ozero" co-op and the rest of his buddies). His Sochi's palace is not about the money, it's about the status (especially if you look into how it was built — not with his own money but by never-ending donations from his inner circle... it was a symbolic gift). Peter the Great built Peterhof and people still come there admiring it's beauty and, by extension, Peter's greatness. It's not a coincidence that the aesthetic of that palace references (without any real understanding or taste) those great baroque and neoclassical palaces of Russian emperors.

He couldn't care less about economy in political (and geopolitical) sphere at this point, he cares about how long the chapter on his rule will be in the future history books. Of course expanding of the empire comes with additional resources — the mistake would be to interpret that he took Crimea (actually not "the richest part" of Ukraine by any stretch of imagination... but a key strategic point of control over the Black Sea as well as an important emotional trigger for a lot of Russians including Putin himself). Russia technically had the control over a lot of Donbass area for about a decade now and for a while it wasn't an active war zone (the conflict was on-going but there wasn't a lot of fighting) — did they bother to repair Soviet mines or to excavate any of those incredibly precious resources that they supposedly came there for? Yeah, fat chance.

His reasons were, mainly, political and ideological.

From the practical point of view he couldn't have allowed an example of a democratic country next door that could, if need be, overthrow their government, especially if they thought that the election was fraudulent. Not just a democratic country — a country that's been so closely connected to Russia for centuries, with millions of Ukrainians living in Russia, probably hundreds of thousands of Russians living in Ukraine, and an uncountable amount of his own citizens having either a relative or a friend living over there. The biggest political threat from the inside to his regime happened in the first half of the 2010's with hundreds of thousands of Russians regularly coming out to the streets to showcase their disdain of him — very much in parallel (even if not too closely connected) to what was happening in Ukraine prior to the Euromaidan. After he had lost Ukraine he eventually regained full and unwavering control over Russia by imprisoning or murdering most of the opposition and imposing hundreds of new repressive laws... and after that he came back to Ukraine to get his revenge.

Ideologically — he has that weird mix of Soviet and Imperial mindset where he's the successor to both Stalin and Peter the Great. And if he is to be remembered as the great ruler by many generations to come, he has to expand his empire. The very real boost of popularity that happened after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 only strengthened his belief in that he's chosen, maybe even by God himself (he's a spiritual person and, publicly, a devoid Orthodox even though his version of Christianity doesn't concern itself about hundreds of thousands of innocent deaths), to regain Russia's greatness once again. We do know what he reads and what he bases his beliefs on (even though putinism is such a mishmash of an ideology that many argue that it's more of a simulation of an ideology rather than an actual one): Ilyin, Dugin, Lev Gumilev with a hint of Shchedrovitsky... "The dissipation of the Soviet Union is the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the XXth century", "Ukraine is not a real country" et cetera et cetera. And he does genuinely believe that stuff.

I agree with much you wrote here.

 

[Abizzz]

Even in terms of the success, the economical retaliations from the West would’ve been massive.

The fact of the matter is (and it’s backed by everyone who has even worked with him), Putin doesn’t give a damn about economy. He outsources it and doesn’t think about it as long as those responsible make sure that he can do what he wants to without getting disturbed.

Economical reasons exist, of course. And sometimes Russia participates in wars/conflicts to ensure its own economical interests — Syria was very much economically motivated, for example. Yet everything that we know about Putin and his decision-making (there’s been enough people that worked closely with him and then turned to another side or simply opened up to the press over the past 25 years) screams — those natural gas reserves in Donbass or, god forbid, rare earth elements, are the last thing on his mind (which is, again, backed by how easily he conceded the potential rights to those minerals to Trump during their negotiations).

If he invaded for minerals, why would he encourage the Trump/Zelenskyy 500b deal?

Trying to explain or, even worse, predict Putin’s actions by using realpolitik/capitalist practical mindset is, again, a mistake that people keep making (and he keeps surprising them by performing unpredictable moves that break that system).

I don't actually disagree with any of the points you make. I just wouldn't entirely discount the idea that he thought what he was doing (for other reasons) might well bring economic benefit too in the medium to long term. Anything he does now he does with the benefit of knowing how it actually worked out (up to now).

 

[0161_UNITED]

You seem to project his willingness to enrich himself personally (which is undeniable) onto his geopolitical interests but those are not the same. Not to mention that he's already one of, if not the wealthiest individual on the planet — various people estimated his wealth to be north of 200 billion in 2022 (it's probably less now but figuring out Putin's net worth is, according to Forbes: “probably the most elusive riddle in wealth hunting”); he's not in a dire need of another influx of cash, especially since doing so will most likely influence his existing wealth — sanctions, the course of the ruble etc.

He's very interested in personal enrichment. But even the said palace represents a shift in his personal views on wealth. It's not about the money anymore (and it very much was in the 90's — in Sobchak's office or in KGB; in the 00's with the big reshuffle of an established wealth, the war on oligarchy and, well, the new oligarchy that grew out of it — Putin, "Ozero" co-op and the rest of his buddies). His Sochi's palace is not about the money, it's about the status (especially if you look into how it was built — not with his own money but by never-ending donations from his inner circle... it was a symbolic gift). Peter the Great built Peterhof and people still come there admiring it's beauty and, by extension, Peter's greatness. It's not a coincidence that the aesthetic of that palace references (without any real understanding or taste) those great baroque and neoclassical palaces of Russian emperors.

He couldn't care less about economy in political (and geopolitical) sphere at this point, he cares about how long the chapter on his rule will be in the future history books. Of course expanding of the empire comes with additional resources — the mistake would be to interpret that he took Crimea (actually not "the richest part" of Ukraine by any stretch of imagination... but a key strategic point of control over the Black Sea as well as an important emotional trigger for a lot of Russians including Putin himself). Russia technically had the control over a lot of Donbass area for about a decade now and for a while it wasn't an active war zone (the conflict was on-going but there wasn't a lot of fighting) — did they bother to repair Soviet mines or to excavate any of those incredibly precious resources that they supposedly came there for? Yeah, fat chance.

His reasons were, mainly, political and ideological.

From the practical point of view he couldn't have allowed an example of a democratic country next door that could, if need be, overthrow their government, especially if they thought that the election was fraudulent. Not just a democratic country — a country that's been so closely connected to Russia for centuries, with millions of Ukrainians living in Russia, probably hundreds of thousands of Russians living in Ukraine, and an uncountable amount of his own citizens having either a relative or a friend living over there. The biggest political threat from the inside to his regime happened in the first half of the 2010's with hundreds of thousands of Russians regularly coming out to the streets to showcase their disdain of him — very much in parallel (even if not too closely connected) to what was happening in Ukraine prior to the Euromaidan. After he had lost Ukraine he eventually regained full and unwavering control over Russia by imprisoning or murdering most of the opposition and imposing hundreds of new repressive laws... and after that he came back to Ukraine to get his revenge.

Ideologically — he has that weird mix of Soviet and Imperial mindset where he's the successor to both Stalin and Peter the Great. And if he is to be remembered as the great ruler by many generations to come, he has to expand his empire. The very real boost of popularity that happened after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 only strengthened his belief in that he's chosen, maybe even by God himself (he's a spiritual person and, publicly, a devoid Orthodox even though his version of Christianity doesn't concern itself about hundreds of thousands of innocent deaths), to regain Russia's greatness once again. We do know what he reads and what he bases his beliefs on (even though putinism is such a mishmash of an ideology that many argue that it's more of a simulation of an ideology rather than an actual one): Ilyin, Dugin, Lev Gumilev with a hint of Shchedrovitsky... "The dissipation of the Soviet Union is the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the XXth century", "Ukraine is not a real country" et cetera et cetera. And he does genuinely believe that stuff.

Exactly right and I’m not disagreeing, but it also begs the question(s):

1) Who is his heir apparent? I’m going to plead total ignorance here and am willing to be educated. There hasn’t been much proof that continuity of philosophy exists in Russia from one regime to the next.
2) You and I agree, he has a ton of money - but he can’t take it with him. Maybe he’ll get his kids $5m Trump golden visas but that’s not an ideological legacy…
3) His ideology will die with him, most likely. Russia will still be surrounded by countries that a lot of Russians will be jealous of. His oligarch’s will die off and leave their fortunes to their inept children who are consumed and corrupted with Western vices.

His end-game is pretty much shite. Delusions of grandeur and legacy that nobody cares about. Everyday Russians looking around that the whole world besides us has it better - but at least we took the Donbas and Donetsk???

 

[ManUtd1999]

An analyst on BFMTV (French TV) said that Trump canceled the meeting with Zelenskyy on Thursday. Then, Macron called Trump to convince him to meet Zelenskyy.

Any other sources can confirm that?

 

[NLunited]

An analyst on BFMTV (French TV) said that Trump canceled the meeting with Zelenskyy on Thursday. Then, Macron called Trump to convince him to meet Zelenskyy.

Any other sources can confirm that?

If true, it would make sense.

 

[harms]

Exactly right and I’m not disagreeing, but it also begs the question(s):

1) Who is his heir apparent? I’m going to plead total ignorance here and am willing to be educated. There hasn’t been much proof that continuity of philosophy exists in Russia from one regime to the next.
2) You and I agree, he has a ton of money - but he can’t take it with him. Maybe he’ll get his kids $5m Trump golden visas but that’s not an ideological legacy…
3) His ideology will die with him, most likely. Russia will still be surrounded by countries that a lot of Russians will be jealous of. His oligarch’s will die off and leave their fortunes to their inept children who are consumed and corrupted with Western vices.

His end-game is pretty much shite. Delusions of grandeur and legacy that nobody cares about. Everyday Russians looking around that the whole world besides us has it better - but at least we took the Donbas and Donetsk???

Yeah, he's very much deluded. Or, maybe, we all are, U.S. become Trump States with the new capital city Muskville, the far right consumes Europe and Putin happily rules for another 15-ish years (while the planet around him burns) and then one of his daughters succeed him, continuing his legacy.

As for the heir — I've talked about it, he doesn't have one by design. None of his children (at least the adult ones... that we know of, he's very secretive) seem to be interested, so it's not a Lukashenko situation. And he's not going to groom one from his own inner circle because he's extremely paranoid. Maybe once he feels like he's had enough and he's ready to retire... but I doubt that it'll happen, he'll either die in power or get overthrown and rot in jail for the rest of his life.

 

[0161_UNITED]

Yeah, he's very much deluded. Or, maybe, we all are, U.S. become Trump States with the new capital city Muskville, the far right consumes Europe and Putin happily rules for another 15-ish years (while the planet around him burns) and then one of his daughters succeed him, continuing his legacy.

As for the heir — I've talked about it, he doesn't have one by design. None of his children (at least the adult ones... that we know of, he's very secretive) seem to be interested, so it's not a Lukashenko situation. And he's not going to groom one from his own inner circle because he's extremely paranoid. Maybe once he feels like he's had enough and he's ready to retire... but I doubt that it'll happen, he'll either die in power or get overthrown and rot in jail for the rest of his life.

Well as far as the U.S. becoming Trump states, that's it's own separate thing. The reality is that it's urban cities vs. rural countryside and how votes are counted with gerrymandering and whether the electoral college will exist - and voter suppression or disenfranchisement , all different topics.

As for Putin living and ruling for 15+ more years, in the long run, that's a topic. Ukraine could / or will suffer if that happens - especially if there's no ceasefire. But we really have to ask, "what we he inherit at that point?" Let's assume there is no ceasefire or "Deal" and it drags on, and on, and on. It is a question of time before he is conscripting and drafting soldiers from the major cities, people with highly valuable skills, and there will almost certainly have to be some sort of internal unrest. Even if sidesteps that, what will Ukraine look like? Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa in ruins. To keep down the counter-insurgency he'll what? Ethnic cleanse it after he takes it? It will just be a smouldering ungovernable wreck.

I like you, am assuming, it's not about money for Putin. He has way, way more than enough. He could totally spend every day on a yacht surrounded by beautiful girls and baked in coke. It is definitely ideological, in some ways - but also self-preservation. If he leaves, people can open the books and find out what's he's done and where the money went - and where the bodies are buried.

Trump is different, he's not really an idealist. He's really a solipsistic nihilist, IMO. But, he damn near went to prison - if people didn't feck that up. Trump is so goddamned stupid he thinks people love him (not really that many people) and he's so rich (he's not really that rich) and maybe he'll win a nobel peace prize (not gonna happen).

But what they both have in common are these things. Self-preservation and projection of power. Neither wants to go to jail. Neither wants to go on the run and pulled from a hole in the ground like Saddam Hussien and get publicly hanged on TV. Both want to project they are strong and untouchable.

It's a funny thing. Ideology. Maybe it lives beyond Trump because you can write it on a napkin, whereas for Putin, it takes 2 hour lectures in history.

However, it's very difficult for ideology to live beyond you - in so many ways. Putin had to go back to the Soviets and the Imperialists. Trump, the civil rights era and the American civil war - it's hard to tell - I guess it's "whenever we used to be great" as opposed to now - and that gets dicey in America.

They are old men, with old ways of thinking, and one day they'll fecking die. That gives me hope.

 

[frostbite]

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is a paradox! 500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million Russians."

Seems completely logical to me that Europe should protect Europe (and Ukraine of course, which is part of Europe), and let the Americans focus on protecting Taiwan and S. Korea.

 

[Beans]

Yeah, he's very much deluded. Or, maybe, we all are, U.S. become Trump States with the new capital city Muskville, the far right consumes Europe and Putin happily rules for another 15-ish years (while the planet around him burns) and then one of his daughters succeed him, continuing his legacy.

As for the heir — I've talked about it, he doesn't have one by design. None of his children (at least the adult ones... that we know of, he's very secretive) seem to be interested, so it's not a Lukashenko situation. And he's not going to groom one from his own inner circle because he's extremely paranoid. Maybe once he feels like he's had enough and he's ready to retire... but I doubt that it'll happen, he'll either die in power or get overthrown and rot in jail for the rest of his life.

Musk: A new America, my America. Casa-de-Musk, Elonville, Marina-de-Musk, Trumpberg. (Looks at Trump) Trumpberg?

Trump: It’s just a little place!

Musk: Trumpberg?!

Trump: Okay I’ll just erase it…

 

[stefan92]

Looks like the oil refinery in Ufa is burning after a drone attack during the night. Another hit to the Russian economy, 1300km behind the front lines!

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Pexbo]

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is a paradox! 500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million Russians."

Seems completely logical to me that Europe should protect Europe (and Ukraine of course, which is part of Europe), and let the Americans focus on protecting Taiwan and S. Korea.

Russia is(was) a global adversary of The United States. The US was happy to help Ukraine and Europe because it aligned with their geopolitical goals.


The Trump administration is aligned with Russian policy and therefore the US no longer has interest in protecting Ukraine.


That’s the only thing that has changed here.

 

[VorZakone]

Aside from Trump, Vance, etc there's also Tulsi Gabbard happily sharing falsehoods.

 

[Buster15]

Russia is(was) a global adversary of The United States. The US was happy to help Ukraine and Europe because it aligned with their geopolitical goals.


The Trump administration is aligned with Russian policy and therefore the US no longer has interest in protecting Ukraine.


That’s the only thing that has changed here.

The great Orange dealmaker says that he wants to stop the war in Ukraine.
You don't bring peace by doing deals with the devil.
That is just appeasement, and we all know how that turned out.

 

[Buster15]

And he is right.
Because of trump 180 degree turn, the west is fragmenting.

 

[Lemoor]

I don't actually disagree with any of the points you make. I just wouldn't entirely discount the idea that he thought what he was doing (for other reasons) might well bring economic benefit too in the medium to long term. Anything he does now he does with the benefit of knowing how it actually worked out (up to now).

Russian invasion of Crimea and Donbas (and I'd be extremely surprised if the calculus was different for Osetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria) still is nowhere even remotely close to bringing anything remotely resembling economic benefits for Russia. It might be correct analysis (and it is how imo it should be viewed) if you limit yourself to checking the wealth and political power of Putin and his inner circle, but on country scale I still don't see any framework where this is anything close to rational behavior.

 

[RedRover]

Yeah, he's very much deluded. Or, maybe, we all are, U.S. become Trump States with the new capital city Muskville, the far right consumes Europe and Putin happily rules for another 15-ish years (while the planet around him burns) and then one of his daughters succeed him, continuing his legacy.

As for the heir — I've talked about it, he doesn't have one by design. None of his children (at least the adult ones... that we know of, he's very secretive) seem to be interested, so it's not a Lukashenko situation. And he's not going to groom one from his own inner circle because he's extremely paranoid. Maybe once he feels like he's had enough and he's ready to retire... but I doubt that it'll happen, he'll either die in power or get overthrown and rot in jail for the rest of his life.

This podcast (with pre-dates the full blown invasion of Ukraine) is interesting, in terms of his rise to power and his end game:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Putin-Prisoner-of-Power/dp/B08DDH7GLH

The view they get to is that he can't retire, because whoever comes next will come after him, wherever he is, or at least that's what he thinks. I suspect he sees shadows around every corner. And as you say, he'll have side lined anyone around him who may be bright and/or charismatic enough to be a threat.

He's a throwback who still seems to value what Russia (or the USSR) was, but that surely isn't how the capitalist class underneath him see the world. He rose to power in a unique situation during the collapse of the Soviet Union and was anointed as leader by the gangsters who carved it up, who being the clever man that he is, he outmanoeuvred rather than answer to. He was an opportunist. Who knows what happens when he dies - certainly there's a chance Russia eats itself, unless there's another strongman who has the luck and intelligence he has.

 

[RedRover]

And he is right.
Because of trump 180 degree turn, the west is fragmenting.

The "West" might be, but Europe may not.

Europe can't rely on the US anymore, the world is changing. Time to up defence spending and forge ties that will outlast Trump.

 

[Buster15]

https://news.sky.com/story/politics...lenskyy-war-trump-macron-meloni-king-12593360

Zelenzkyy was rude to trump, Nigel Farage.
Honestly. Every time he opens his mouth, he makes himself look even more stupid.
Nothing said about trump and vance being rude to Zelenzkyy and trump telling him to leave the white house.

What a twat. But no doubt his supporters will agree with him.
It carries about as much credence as Amorim saying United are on course to become PL Champions.