Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Bit of horrifying footage, Russians at an ammo dump that was hit.

 
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Mixed reports as to whether Poland/Czechia have 100% agreed to this or not but sounds promising at the least.

 
MTF said:
One of the impressive things so far is that Russia has absorbed significant losses of manpower and equipment, and that they're still fighting. It's not unreasonable to think that if a NATO military took casualties in the tens of thousands within a few months, that they wouldn't just call a complete pause of any offensive action. It's not something to be dismissed, it means that to defeat the Russian army it takes several times more damage than it would others.
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Russia throughout history has always taken the Zapp Brannigan approach to warfare by sending in wave after wave of their own men to achieve victory by simply outnumbering the enemy. Basically they don't care about the lives of their soldiers.
 
NotThatSoph said:
They'll go unanswered. Then what, let them all die?

Go back to the so-called refugee crisis in 2015. It was a result of the Syrian civil war, so put the blame on a combination of the Syrian government and ISIS, in whatever proportion you want. More than a million people had to flee. Complaining to either Assad or ISIS would have achieved nothing, and if we ended it there all those people would have gotten their asylum claims rejected.

Or, we can stay with this war. A lot of Ukranians have had to flee their country. It's Putin's fault, no one else's. It's not Poland's fault, it's not Lithuania's, it's not Germany's. We can tell the refugees to go to Russia and complain, or we can help them.
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Never seen anyone with bigger holier-than-thou-complex in the whole Internet than you.
 
I think the whole problem with Putin weaponizing famine is that he can keep doing it and I believe if Ukraine cede more terroritory within a decade at most Putin will repeat what he's doing in wanting install a puppett regime or annex all of Ukraine.
 
This is inside Russia. Some debate on what type of drone it is, there are seemingly loads of different kinds made all over that look just like that.


 
MuFc_1992 said:
Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and if supplied with modern Western weapons, they have enough resilience to at least fight this to a stalemate. The west on the other hand should either throw its complete backing behind Ukraine or back out so that Ukrainians know they can't win this and surrender. The current tactic of supplying just enough weapons so that the war is prolonged, Russia is hurt long term and Ukrainians lose their lives in the thousands is really immoral IMO.
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You have to consider that selfishly the West has to retain enough of an arsenal to be able to fight any other conflict that might crop up including a direct attack on a NATO member. It's estimated the US has already sent roughly 1/3 of their inventory of Javelin's, circa 7,000 to Ukraine and that it will take at least 12 months to ramp up the production past the 1,000 per year currently being produced.

For some of these weapon platforms, it is infeasible to ramp up production in the short-medium term. And there is a real risk if the West continues to commit more and more of their arsenals that they'll get caught with their pants down.
 
Gehrman said:
I think the whole problem with Putin weaponizing famine is that he can keep doing it and I believe if Ukraine cede more terroritory within a decade at most Putin will repeat what he's doing in wanting install a puppett regime or annex all of Ukraine.
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The rest of the world would be extremely stupid not to make changes in the food supply in the next few years. If this time it's 100% on putin, if we allow him to repeat this in a few years, then it will be on the rest of us too.
 
IWat said:
You have to consider that selfishly the West has to retain enough of an arsenal to be able to fight any other conflict that might crop up including a direct attack on a NATO member. It's estimated the US has already sent roughly 1/3 of their inventory of Javelin's, circa 7,000 to Ukraine and that it will take at least 12 months to ramp up the production past the 1,000 per year currently being produced.
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Is NATO running out of weapons to supply Ukraine? (no) - YouTube


While the US/NATO might run out of Javelins, there is absolutely no reason to worry that NATO as a whole will run out of weapons. As this video highlights, Javelins and similar weapons are covevenient and useful for the type of warfare going on in Ukraine now, but the NATO arsenal is in no way dependant on it.
 
IWat said:
You have to consider that selfishly the West has to retain enough of an arsenal to be able to fight any other conflict that might crop up including a direct attack on a NATO member. It's estimated the US has already sent roughly 1/3 of their inventory of Javelin's, circa 7,000 to Ukraine and that it will take at least 12 months to ramp up the production past the 1,000 per year currently being produced.

For some of these weapon platforms, it is infeasible to ramp up production in the short-medium term. And there is a real risk if the West continues to commit more and more of their arsenals that they'll get caught with their pants down.
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US alone has up to 2 thousand rocket launchers and they’re about to deliver just 4 of these to Ukraine. Javelins were needed at the beginning of war but now Ukraine needs heavy and long ranged artillery as they’re massively outnumbered by Russia to the factor of 20 probably. Biden should stop dithering and set the war goals clearly as these heavy weapons are desperately needed for Ukraine. The morale is obviously decreasing amongst soldiers as their positions are under nonstop shelling with heavy artillery without much ability to respond.
 
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Rajma said:
US alone has up to 2 thousand rocket launchers and they’re about to deliver just 4 of these to Ukraine. Javelins were needed at the beginning of war but now Ukraine needs heavy and long ranged artillery as they’re massively outnumbered by Russia to the factor of 20 probably. Biden should stop dithering and set the war goals clearly as these heavy weapons are desperately needed for Ukraine. The morale is obviously decreasing amongst soldiers as their positions are under nonstop shelling with heavy artillery without much ability to respond.
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US also has its Air Force. I am sure that USAF can decimate any tanks out there with zero loses, and without needing any Javelins or artillery or anything else. They should give to Ukraine any long range artillery they need. Also, I hope they are training Ukrainian pilots to use F-16s since this war will not end anytime soon.
 
IWat said:
You have to consider that selfishly the West has to retain enough of an arsenal to be able to fight any other conflict that might crop up including a direct attack on a NATO member. It's estimated the US has already sent roughly 1/3 of their inventory of Javelin's, circa 7,000 to Ukraine and that it will take at least 12 months to ramp up the production past the 1,000 per year currently being produced.

For some of these weapon platforms, it is infeasible to ramp up production in the short-medium term. And there is a real risk if the West continues to commit more and more of their arsenals that they'll get caught with their pants down.
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To be fair, what NATO has above everything is an overwhelming air and naval force. And none of these assets have been given to Ukraine. You'd think if a European NATO member were attacked, it would be very hard for the attacker to deploy tanks or artillery on forward positions. Because the defenders will have complete control of the skies and seas, so it would be raining bombs on the attackers. Javelins won't be as essential as they are to the Ukrainians who, in the absence of Air Force or Navy, are basically fighting an exclusively infantry & artillery battle.
 
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shamans said:
Biden is quite terrible. Imagine how bad the other candidate was if he lost to freakin Joe Biden!

I used to be a fan of Biden but it really is turning out to just be "better than Trump" and nothing else. Donating a further billion to the war when shit is hitting the fan here is none sense. Just controlled by military economy.
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wouldn't even say he is that.
onemanarmy said:
Until the political system in the US is changed, all presidencies will be exactly the same.
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I agree. In relaiton to US presidents the phrase "It ain't matter the colour of the drug dealer or the pimp"
 
That's a Barrett .50 BMG rifle. I say that's either the M82 or the militarized M107, but I'm surprised they could fit a silencer on that.
 
maniak said:
OK, the moral part I think it's you living in dreamland, but lets leave that aside.

Since we know the food shortage won't be dealt with and millions will die, we should at least be honest about the consequences of our decisions. Supporting ukraine to fight till the end and concede no territory will have these effects elsewhere. Putin is to blame for starting it all, no question, but the response has consequences too.

I'm not happy with politicians completely ignoring the brutal devastation that prolonging this will cause in non-western nations.

It's easy having this "you shall not pass" attitude when it's other folks who will pay the price.

I'll repeat again because I feel it coming. I have no answer to this, it's a fecked up decision either way and I don't envy the folks having to make it. What I can not stand is completely ignoring the millions who will die when talking about these decisions. It's a bit disgusting really.
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What should governments do about that, start boarding Russian ships?

Putin has to be stopped, people dieing in Africa and elsewhere because of this is unfortunate. Maybe their governments should be applying pressure on Russia to withdraw.
 
alexthelion said:
What should governments do about that, start boarding Russian ships?

Putin has to be stopped, people dieing in Africa and elsewhere because of this is unfortunate. Maybe their governments should be applying pressure on Russia to withdraw.
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Well, sending help to those affected with the same enthusiasm they send weapons to Ukraine would be a good start. Helping refugees from countries affected by putin's terrorist food policies with the same enthusiasm we help ukranian refugees would be a great step two.

I don't think Somalia, Yemen and Ethiopia have the power to apply any kind of pressure on Russia, so I don't think they should waste their time.
 
maniak said:
Well, sending help to those affected with the same enthusiasm they send weapons to Ukraine would be a good start. Helping refugees from countries affected by putin's terrorist food policies with the same enthusiasm we help ukranian refugees would be a great step two.

I don't think Somalia, Yemen and Ethiopia have the power to apply any kind of pressure on Russia, so I don't think they should waste their time.
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Pretty much this.

At some point, all Western nations that can and want to transfer that Ukrainian grain to poorer countries have to treat this situation the same way as North America did during the Battle of the Atlantic. Those Western nations also have the require naval power to keep Russia honest. The aim is to get supplies through to those in need - those with no naval nor economical power to apply any pressure on Russia.
 
Frosty said:
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Meaning a lot of the kills for Ukraine were other Ukranians instead of Russians. Putin will happily send every Ukranian in territory he controls to their death, if they kill some other Ukranians it's a bonus.
 
maniak said:
Well, sending help to those affected with the same enthusiasm they send weapons to Ukraine would be a good start. Helping refugees from countries affected by putin's terrorist food policies with the same enthusiasm we help ukranian refugees would be a great step two.

I don't think Somalia, Yemen and Ethiopia have the power to apply any kind of pressure on Russia, so I don't think they should waste their time.
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Sadly won't happen, we're just racist to the core.
 
maniak said:
Well, sending help to those affected with the same enthusiasm they send weapons to Ukraine would be a good start. Helping refugees from countries affected by putin's terrorist food policies with the same enthusiasm we help ukranian refugees would be a great step two.

I don't think Somalia, Yemen and Ethiopia have the power to apply any kind of pressure on Russia, so I don't think they should waste their time.
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I would have thought it was possible to get that food from elsewhere but I know feck all about that tbh.
 
Denis79 said:
Sadly won't happen, we're just racist to the core.
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Traditionally refugees flee the most to neighboring countries where they are safe, but no doubt there is a double standard.
 
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Ukrainians will never accept another fake peace with Putin
by Svitlana Morenets

Two months ago, I became one of the 80,000 Ukrainian refugees who have settled in Britain. The kindness I’ve been shown, by my host family and so many others, has been overwhelming. People are caring, but curious too. They ask how long Zelensky will really fight for. By which I suspect they mean: surely you guys don’t think you can actually win? Why prolong the bloodshed?

It’s a good question. By some estimates, nearly 80 per cent of the Russian army is in my country right now. We’re tiny by comparison with Russia and fighting alone, though with donated weapons. Officially, up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed or wounded each day in eastern Ukraine. Unofficially, many more. My father, who is 53, could be called up any time. My seven-year-old brother is still at home. Why don’t I long for a ceasefire? Why doesn’t Zelensky?

To understand Ukraine – and the President’s position – you need to understand that war is not new to us. We have been at war for eight years, with 45,000 killed. It’s a staggering death toll which, in towns like mine, has meant the regular arrival of bodies brought back for burial. In the hope of ending the fighting, Ukraine has tried trusting Russia, and agreeing on a truce. We have learned the hard way about Putin’s agenda – that he sees our independence as an anomaly, our culture as a threat to be wiped out.

I was just a teenager during the events that started this war in November 2013. At the time, Ukraine wanted to strengthen ties with the EU and the President, Viktor Yanukovych, had promised to do so. But at the last minute, he changed his mind and announced closer ties with Moscow instead. He perhaps thought – as some in Europe seem to do now – that Ukrainians would go along with whatever the president decides. Instead, there was a mass revolt: a million marched in Kyiv to protest on behalf of European values and against the Kremlin’s protégé. This was the so-called Maidan Revolution.

Snipers led by Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s adviser, massacred almost 100 people – but rather than the protests being quelled, they intensified. On 22 February 2014, Yanukovych fled Kyiv. It was an empowering moment for Ukraine but also a moment of vulnerability. With no one in charge in Kyiv, Putin’s forces occupied Crimea, which he used as a base to invade Donbas – and Ukraine was at war. The fighting has never stopped since.


At that time I was at school in Poninka, three hours from Kyiv and some 600 miles from the front. At breaktime, we would weave camouflage nets to disguise tanks. At home, my mother would knit socks for the soldiers and collect food and warm clothes. My history teacher, who had been a father figure to me, was called up. He returned a year later a broken man, unable to recover from the horrors of a war that almost no one in Europe seemed to know was being fought.
Then came Volodymyr Zelensky. His election in 2019 may seem bizarre: why would a comedian-turned-actor with no political experience be chosen as president? But that was the point – to have new faces in the government, untainted by corruption. He wanted to negotiate a deal with Russia and stood on a platform of ending the war. I voted for him as a gamble, taking a risk on a dreamer who wanted peaceful negotiations.
For one brief moment, there was hope of a breakthrough when talks led to 35 Ukrainian captives being returned. But during further negotiations, Putin built up troops around the borders and it soon emerged that the talks had been an illusion.

It seemed to Ukrainians that Zelensky was out of his depth, at risk of being duped by Moscow. In February of this year, his approval ratings plunged to 24 per cent and it looked as if he might be overthrown. Had he made any concessions to Putin, he very possibly would have been.


Polls show that most Ukrainians think victory is not just possible, but likely
Zelensky faces the same risk now. If he agrees to a ceasefire that hands over Ukrainian territory, he would probably be removed at the first opportunity by a country that has shown its ability to overthrow presidents. Public opinion is firmly behind fighting on, in the belief that any ‘deal’ with Putin would turn us into a slave state and ‘peace’ would mean giving Russia a chance to rearm and return. Polls also show that most Ukrainians think victory is not just possible, but likely. That might sound hubristic, even naive, but what are the other options?
We have, after all, seen where a deal with Putin leads. Concessions were offered in August 2014, but Russia broke the agreements and started shooting at retreating Ukrainian troops at Ilovaisk. That massacre(now commemorated every year) forced Kyiv to negotiate on Putin’s terms, creating the notorious Minsk agreements, whereby the EU effectively agreed to let him keep Crimea. So we don’t need to guess what he would do if given another slice of Ukraine. He’d do what he did after he failed to occupy the whole Donbas and Luhansk regions in 2014: return with a stronger army.

I’m sometimes asked if I hope for a truce, if only so my father will not be conscripted. The idea of him fighting terrifies me. I don’t want to imagine my little brother growing up without a father. But nor do I want him to grow up in a Ukraine whose culture and language are being erased, its women abused and its people enslaved. If this sounds harsh, then consider what we’ve seen already.

In Bucha civilians were massacred and women raped. Donbas is now a bombed-out wasteland. Children in newly occupied eastern Ukraine are being enlisted in the Russian cadet core. In Mariupol, a Moscow-dictated school curriculum has been introduced. If a deal grants Putin control of southern Ukraine, we will lose a third of our economy. My parents and countless other Ukrainians will live in poverty, watching their country fall apart.

So that’s why we fight. The war has inflicted an unspeakable toll and Putin has made sure that every Ukrainian has someone to mourn for. But the last poll showed that 78 per cent are still against any concessions. I won’t list all my friends who have died in these eight years. But all of them were killed because they were defending the right to be free, to join Europe and Nato and to choose the best for their country and their children.

Ukraine isn’t running out of soldiers. Volunteers are not just queuing up at military recruitment centres but, in some cases, trying to bribe their way in. Civilians have something to protect – and are ready to die for it. The problem isn’t resolve or manpower, but weapons. Just 10 per cent of the arms Ukraine has asked for have been delivered.

The Ukrainian army uses about 5,000 artillery shells a day; the Russians ten times more. A friend’s battalion was forced to retreat from the Kharkiv region this month due to a lack of heavy weapons, especially long-range ones. They need help now because without it they may not last until winter.


And even with weapons, you might ask, would Ukrainians really be able to dislodge Russians? Is it moral to send arms to a country you don’t think stands a chance of winning? I’d reply with another question: when Putin first invaded, how long did you think it would be until Kyiv fell? Two days? Perhaps four? Ukraine’s soldiers – and its people – have amazed the world before. With the right kit, we can do so again.

I’ve felt Britain perhaps understands Ukraine better because it once fought alone against the odds – for reasons summed up by a prime minister who explained things well. ‘You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory,’ Winston Churchill said, ‘because it is better to perish than live as slaves.’ But for Ukraine, there is every hope of victory: if we get enough help. So it’s for my family, as well as for my country, that I hope this fight continues until the invader is repelled. As years of Putin’s war have taught us, there is really no alternative.
 
Austin stated early July for when he expected these to be in the field, in his last press conference, looks like timetables may have been stepped up, or training went well...

Doubt 4 of them is going to have all that great an effect, but its possible Ukraine has been holding off its Kherson offensive knowing that these and the pzh are on route. Might see some significant movement soon.

 
Gehrman said:
I would have thought it was possible to get that food from elsewhere but I know feck all about that tbh.
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Africa, the middle east and south east Asia rely heavily on Russian and Ukranian wheat and corn (to varying degrees), potash mostly comes from Russia, China isn't selling phosphate, a lot of farmers won't be able to use fertilizer this year, it's a disaster.

https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/FOOD/zjvqkgomjvx/

 
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I'd be interested to know whether one of these trials reveals that rape was encouraged by Russian commanders

 
Simbo said:
Doubt 4 of them is going to have all that great an effect, but its possible Ukraine has been holding off its Kherson offensive knowing that these and the pzh are on route. Might see some significant movement soon.
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It's probably a case of how quickly they can train crews and engineers and set up a supply line for ammo and parts. That number might only be 4 so far but I'd expect it to increase into couple of dozens in the next month.

And I think I've said it before but what happens in Kherson might be telling for the future of this war. If things progress well for Ukraine, they could be in a position to siege Kherson by then end of next month. But for obvious reasons, they can't afford to do what the Russians did to Mariupol. This would be their first attempt to recapture a city and it'll be very interesting to see what tactics are used and what the results will be.

I'm also keen to see how determined the resistance of the Russian army will be. In the Donbas, the Russian army is bolstered by separatist units from the breakaway republics, who are basically fighting for their homes. In Kherson though, it's a 100% Russian army that has invaded through Crimea. How willing will they be to take massive losses to protect territory they have no affiliation to?
 
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