Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Simbo said:
Seems very unlikely at this point, but it seems wise to look at long term possibilities. If Russia somehow does continue steady encroachment westward, if republicans take control in US and spend 8 years finishing what Trump started breaking down NATO, if Russian funds and propaganda continues making ground in the EU, putting more hard right parties into power, etc, etc...
Click to expand...

Yep. Europe and the UK need to start preparing now on the assumption that the worst-case scenario will happen, namely that the US pulls out of NATO.

Of course, if that worst-case happens, then the next time the US wants military and/or diplomatic and/or political support and/or intelligence assistance from the UK and Europe, it will find that the sword cuts both ways.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Yep. Europe and the UK need to start preparing now on the assumption that the worst-case scenario will happen, namely that the US pulls out of NATO.

Of course, if that worst-case happens, then the next time the US wants military and/or diplomatic and/or political support and/or intelligence assistance from the UK and Europe, it will find that the sword cuts both ways.
Click to expand...

It probably won't tbf because the UK is invariably governed by little fat red faced toy soldiers who will jump on their masters' feet as soon as they're called, possibly in exchange for a crack at a truly appallingly one sided trade deal.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling is always here to provide daily updates.



Sums up where and what the shift is all about.
Click to expand...


The only thing that doesn't add up in his thread is that he speaks of 10 active US Army Divisions, each with 3 Battalions of artillery, and each such Battalion having between 16-24 howitzers.

That makes between 48-72 howitzers per Division.

However, he then says that "To make it easy for math purposes, let's round up and say each Division has 24 howitzers ... That's a TOTAL of 240 howitzers ... in all ten of the active US Army Divisions."

But the figure of 24 howitzers per Division doesn't square with the maths, which yields (as I say above) 48-72 howitzers per Division.
 
GlastonSpur said:
The only thing that doesn't add up in his thread is that he speaks of 10 active US Army Divisions, each with 3 Battalions of artillery, and each such Battalion having between 16-24 howitzers.

That makes between 48-72 howitzers per Division.

However, he then says that "To make it easy for math purposes, let's round up and say each Division has 24 howitzers ... That's a TOTAL of 240 howitzers ... in all ten of the active US Army Divisions."

But the figure of 24 howitzers per Division doesn't square with the maths, which yields (as I say above) 48-72 howitzers per Division.
Click to expand...

 
I wonder if Putin will stop in the east or continue westwards to take all of Ukraine?

It's tragic what's happening but all of it is easy to forsee, and I suspect most western countries are letting it play out because whilst it does damage to Ukraine, it does damage to Russia too.

The only way for Ukraine to have a chance is if the west supplied lots of the heavy weaponry Ukraine is requesting, but they're not doing that. So month by month Ukraine will lose more territory, and the people will bleed.

I do question one thing - all the news outlets that made Russia seem weak at the start of the war. I think it did more harm than good - public pressure could've led to more support being urged for Ukraine, and now I doubt many people care enough. They forgot how long most wars take, and given the overwhelming resource advantage this war was only ever going to go one way. Sad for the Ukrainians who have to suffer through it.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Yep. Europe and the UK need to start preparing now on the assumption that the worst-case scenario will happen, namely that the US pulls out of NATO.

Of course, if that worst-case happens, then the next time the US wants military and/or diplomatic and/or political support and/or intelligence assistance from the UK and Europe, it will find that the sword cuts both ways.
Click to expand...
I think it would be smart to have what you need to repel Russia without the US. Our internal political are crazy right now, and we're not very interested in Europe compared to the post-war years. I think the US/UK relationship will be strong though, and Russia could never pull off a water landing anyway, so you all have little to fear.

I imagine US Intel can provide enough info to Europe to get the info they want. Not that I like those guys, but they have a lot of assets.
 
marktan said:
I wonder if Putin will stop in the east or continue westwards to take all of Ukraine?

It's tragic what's happening but all of it is easy to forsee, and I suspect most western countries are letting it play out because whilst it does damage to Ukraine, it does damage to Russia too.

The only way for Ukraine to have a chance is if the west supplied lots of the heavy weaponry Ukraine is requesting, but they're not doing that. So month by month Ukraine will lose more territory, and the people will bleed.

I do question one thing - all the news outlets that made Russia seem weak at the start of the war. I think it did more harm than good - public pressure could've led to more support being urged for Ukraine, and now I doubt many people care enough. They forgot how long most wars take, and given the overwhelming resource advantage this war was only ever going to go one way. Sad for the Ukrainians who have to suffer through it.
Click to expand...

I feel like you should read the post above yours.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling is always here to provide daily updates.



Sums up where and what the shift is all about.
Click to expand...

This is why I’m convinced NATO & Ukraine accepted long ago they couldn’t hold the East but had to bog down the Russians as long as possible to secure the rest of the country + train up their soldiers. It was never realistic to get all this NATO hardware into country, soldiers up to speed and then shipped to where it could be useful (without it getting cruise missiles on route). Get soldiers trained properly in the West, allow meaningful weapons and tech to arrive, fortify the rest of the country and buy as much time as possible - sanctions despite people wanting them to work immediately are starting to tell. Then the long long slog to reclaim the country.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Yep. Europe and the UK need to start preparing now on the assumption that the worst-case scenario will happen, namely that the US pulls out of NATO.

Of course, if that worst-case happens, then the next time the US wants military and/or diplomatic and/or political support and/or intelligence assistance from the UK and Europe, it will find that the sword cuts both ways.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, the GQP could do a lot of damage if Trump gets back into power and so Europe definitely should ensure they have contingencies. Hopefully the Jan 6th committee and the DOJ feel confident in the evidence to criminally indict Trump, apart from that it's not currently promising.
 
sport2793 said:
Hopefully the Jan 6th committee and the DOJ feel confident in the evidence to criminally indict Trump, apart from that it's not currently promising.
Click to expand...

I think the chances of them actually criminally charging a former president are close to zero.
 
Carolina Red said:
What? When? If anything, Russian military capability was largely overestimated at the start of the war.
Click to expand...
Assume poster means Ukraine? As you say, if anything we were completely mislead on Russian military strength, their reputation is in tatters.
 
Carolina Red said:
What? When? If anything, Russian military capability was largely overestimated at the start of the war.
Click to expand...
Maybe just after the start of the war? Russia's military and its operations have constantly been described as a bumbling mess from within days after the invasion had begun, and that continues today. There also continues to be a lot of emphasis on any Ukrainians wins and relatively little on Russia's slow progress. So for a lot of people (occasional followers and people that just read this thread's or news headlines), it may well seem like Russia is basically hopeless at war, that Ukraine is doing fairly OK in holding them back - and that there is hence less need to support Ukraine.

I can see merit in that idea.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
This is why I’m convinced NATO & Ukraine accepted long ago they couldn’t hold the East but had to bog down the Russians as long as possible to secure the rest of the country + train up their soldiers. It was never realistic to get all this NATO hardware into country, soldiers up to speed and then shipped to where it could be useful (without it getting cruise missiles on route). Get soldiers trained properly in the West, allow meaningful weapons and tech to arrive, fortify the rest of the country and buy as much time as possible - sanctions despite people wanting them to work immediately are starting to tell. Then the long long slog to reclaim the country.
Click to expand...
Yeah, and like he touched on in that Twitter thread above it’s not just about giving them weapons. It often takes longer to train support personnel like electronics technicians and mechanics than the guy actually pulling the trigger.

And we talk about all these weaponry acronyms, but sometimes what they really shortest on is just trucks.
 
Beans said:
I think it would be smart to have what you need to repel Russia without the US. Our internal political are crazy right now, and we're not very interested in Europe compared to the post-war years. I think the US/UK relationship will be strong though, and Russia could never pull off a water landing anyway, so you all have little to fear.

I imagine US Intel can provide enough info to Europe to get the info they want. Not that I like those guys, but they have a lot of assets.
Click to expand...

A US administration that would pull out of NATO (under a re-elected Trump, for example) is not going to provide intel to Europe in the event of a Russian invasion - it's more likely to be cheering on the Russians and praising Putin for his "strength".

Nor would the US/UK relationship continue be strong. The UK would see a US withdrawal from NATO as a fundamental betrayal of an alliance that has kept the peace in Europe for its members since the end of WWII. It would be the end of an era - and with it the end of any special relationship between the UK and US.
 
GlastonSpur said:
A US administration that would pull out of NATO (under a re-elected Trump, for example) is not going to provide intel to Europe in the event of a Russian invasion - it's more likely to be cheering on the Russians and praising Putin for his "strength".

Nor would the US/UK relationship continue be strong. The UK would see a US withdrawal from NATO as a fundamental betrayal of an alliance that has kept the peace in Europe for its members since the end of WWII. It would be the end of an era - and with it the end of any special relationship between the UK and US.
Click to expand...
In that hypothetical situation, perhaps.

I wonder if a second Trump administration would be able to pull out of NATO, if indeed they need congressional approval as I’ve read. Plenty of Republicans in the house and senate are backing Ukraine aid. Cuddling up to Russia has a different look now, and most of the country has experience seeing the Russians as the bad guys.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Click to expand...


8 year old article, but not seen that before. So somewhere between 15%-30% of Crimeans voted in favour of annexation according to that document, those of voting age at the time at least, and even that's while under all the threats and whatever other election fraud Russia normally employs.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
This is why I’m convinced NATO & Ukraine accepted long ago they couldn’t hold the East but had to bog down the Russians as long as possible to secure the rest of the country + train up their soldiers. It was never realistic to get all this NATO hardware into country, soldiers up to speed and then shipped to where it could be useful (without it getting cruise missiles on route). Get soldiers trained properly in the West, allow meaningful weapons and tech to arrive, fortify the rest of the country and buy as much time as possible - sanctions despite people wanting them to work immediately are starting to tell. Then the long long slog to reclaim the country.
Click to expand...
The only problem I have with that approach is that a lot of territories might already have fallen by then. At the same time, we can expect Russian troops to do far worse things than Milosevic's cronies did during the 1990s in those occupied territories. Worse of all is that Russian troops in those occupied territories are not feeling very threatened yet. It is just not acceptable in this context.

If what Mark Hertling said about the Ukrainians being quick learners is true, we shouldn't need this much time before they can master the weapons systems and then use them to launch a sweeping counterattack that can crush anything back to the original borders.
 
GlastonSpur said:
A US administration that would pull out of NATO (under a re-elected Trump, for example) is not going to provide intel to Europe in the event of a Russian invasion - it's more likely to be cheering on the Russians and praising Putin for his "strength".

Nor would the US/UK relationship continue be strong. The UK would see a US withdrawal from NATO as a fundamental betrayal of an alliance that has kept the peace in Europe for its members since the end of WWII. It would be the end of an era - and with it the end of any special relationship between the UK and US.
Click to expand...

You have a grossly overinflated sense of the standards in modern British political life.
 
TwoSheds said:
You have a grossly overinflated sense of the standards in modern British political life.
Click to expand...

It's not about political standards, it's about hard-nosed pragmatism. A US administration that had pulled out of NATO (in the scenario in question) would clearly no longer be a reliable ally, having opted instead for some short-sighted "America First" bullshit isolationism, or perhaps even worse ... a supporter of Putin's Russia.
 
I would imagine Putin wants to kill him at some far flung location (accidentally of course) or else stop him from tweeting, which he has somehow apparently continued to do whilst in his previous location.
 
Raoul said:
I would imagine Putin wants to kill him at some far flung location (accidentally of course) or else stop him from tweeting, which he has somehow apparently continued to do whilst in his previous location.
Click to expand...

Is he actually tweeting himself or is someone tweeting on his behalf?
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
The only problem I have with that approach is that a lot of territories might already have fallen by then. At the same time, we can expect Russian troops to do far worse things than Milosevic's cronies did during the 1990s in those occupied territories. Worse of all is that Russian troops in those occupied territories are not feeling very threatened yet. It is just not acceptable in this context.

If what Mark Hertling said about the Ukrainians being quick learners is true, we shouldn't need this much time before they can master the weapons systems and then use them to launch a sweeping counterattack that can crush anything back to the original borders.
Click to expand...
I guess the military planning will be thinking months maybe even years ahead and making hard decisions about which towns can't be reinforced - I'd think they are heavily fortifying the West/Kyiv as it stands. The only hope I see in the short term is the sanctions - there are lots of signs they are having an effect: Russia's economy in for a bumpy ride as sanctions bite - BBC News otherwise I can easily see this still being news in 2023 and beyond.
 
This number seems quite high and would explain the trains of new armor on their way to the Russian front lines.

 
GlastonSpur said:
It's not about political standards, it's about hard-nosed pragmatism. A US administration that had pulled out of NATO (in the scenario in question) would clearly no longer be a reliable ally, having opted instead for some short-sighted "America First" bullshit isolationism, or perhaps even worse ... a supporter of Putin's Russia.
Click to expand...

We're not pragmatic, we're not competent, were not principled. Our politicians are infantile, knee jerk and thick. And it plays well with a lot of the public - enough to work in our shit voting system.
 
shamans said:
So is this ending any time soon or not. Any hope? What's the sentiment?
Click to expand...
Definitely not ending soon I think. I'm still surprised the sanctions aren't changing Russia's calculus. A big deal was made about them, primarily to turn the Russian elites and population against Putin but he has a serious grip on power.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.