Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Bear in mind that’s with most having relatively open internet access and not having those books forced upon them. That’s why China is so scary - it’s this level (probably more) or propaganda but with the majority of the country completely cut off from any outside news.

As an aside I find it so weird the U.K. is always the main baddie - kind of shows how backwards Russia is. We stopped being a major power long ago.

Indeed. We could discuss about it in the "Cold War against China?" thread. The amount of propaganda against the US and against Japan in all Chinese media is just ridiculously OTT, and the fact that they haven't been at war and now spoiling for a fight in a while is just setting up a time-ticking bomb.
 
Oh, no, he's in charge alright. And no, there are no hidden puppeteers behind him, be it some mythical oligarchs or criminals from St. Petersburg — he had cleared out everyone who had helped him to get there & felt that they could control him ages ago (Berezovsky would be the prime example). Watch the council meeting of Russian Security Council that happened a few days before the invasion, on 21th of February, and watch how he purposely humiliates some of the most influential people in the country to showcase his ultimate authority. It's feels like watching some prison movie.

I do believe that he has the power to stop the war if he wants to. He clearly doesn't though, but even if he did there's obviously a consideration of how the people, who are overstimulated by the ridiculous and ever-present propaganda, are going to react to him finishing the war with "the Nazis" without getting anything of significance back & leading the country into a huge economical crisis. He's backed himself into the corner and it looks like he's going to push though until something breaks — either Ukraine or his own regime. Hopefully the latter.

You are right! That council meeting on Feb 21th was shocking for me. If my boss talked to me like that, in private not in public, I'd resign that same day, no matter how much money I was making. It is astounding that these people sit there and allow to be humiliated like this.
 
Yeah we’re extremely strong given our ties - close to the US, most of the commonwealth and, despite Brexit, we’re kind of still seen as European. I find it strange they chose us and not Germany - a country who are a recent enemy.

Talking of a Germany they have supposedly just blocked Spain sending 40 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

Why?
 
Not exactly. Putin wasn't allowed to get the third term in a row (God knows why this "in a row" was in the Constitution in the first place), so Medvedev switched with him for the third one. The change in the constitution happened later, during a later Putin's term, when they've erased/nullified Putin's previous terms. Medvedev did increase the length of those terms though, from 4 years to 6 years.

Medvedev is a tool, of course. Some people were hopeful when he first came in since he was clearly more liberal and open to the world than Putin was but I never really believed that he would have the guts to try and to get out from under Putin's heel... he didn't. It is believed that he at least considered not giving the place back — or that Putin felt like it may have been the option, we'll never know, so he completely fell out of Putin's favour after they've switched back and now Medvedev finally saw an opportunity to gain that trust back.

Thank you for the clarifications!
 

"When German weapons are sold, there is what is known as an end-use clause. This is where the buyer needs Germany's Federal Government's approval before handing over the weapons at a later date."

So its basically Germany's decision and they've decided not to because of the same reason nobody else has sent modern MBT's, whatever that is.
 
Yeah we’re extremely strong given our ties - close to the US, most of the commonwealth and, despite Brexit, we’re kind of still seen as European. I find it strange they chose us and not Germany - a country who are a recent enemy.

Talking of a Germany they have supposedly just blocked Spain sending 40 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
According to Business Insider the tanks were in a terrible state and the number they are sending now is 10 instead of 40. Although even the 10 they are sending may take some time to be repaired. Don't think it has anything to do with Germany.

https://www.businessinsider.de/poli...ckzieher-bei-leopard-2-panzer-fuer-ukraine-d/
 
The gangsters in Russia don't have the power that they've had in the 90's. Putin always pushes the argument that it was him who had dragged the country out of the 90's when Russia was divided between the mob & oligarchs and in a way it's true, the only issue is that he wasn't doing it for the country, he simply took everything for himself.

It was a long process obviously but most of it happened in the 00's with siloviki (police, FSB, security service, prison guards etc.) gradually getting more and more power. There's a book in English called "The Vory: Russia's Super Mafia" that depicts that subculture well. At some point more than a half of Russia's prisons were run by the inmates and Vory (literally "thieves" — or "Vory v Zakone" / "thieves in law" — obligatory tag @VorZakone ) were at the top of that rough hierarchy. They're pretty much extinct now and those that are alive are long in hiding.

It's hard to run a shadow criminal organisation in a totalitarian state with well-financed repressive institutions, full control of every branch of political power and little to no concern about following their own laws — those are for the public, siloviki can (and literally do on a systemic basis) torture and even kill people or send people to prison on made up charges (where they are also tortured and/or killed).
Thanks for that!

I've seen Eastern Promises twice so I'm pretty much an expert on the Vor. ;)
 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigory_Yudin

In early 2022, Yudin warned of a lack of political awareness amongst the Russian population about the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. On 22 February 2022, Yudin predicted that Putin was "about to start the most senseless war in history". After participating in protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, he was beaten unconscious by police and needed treatment at the Sklifosovsky Institute in central Moscow.
 

More for the geopolitics thread maybe, but yes, I read a newspapers article about this some time in 2021. Russia basically constantly moves its border forward. It's very gradual, tiny steps at a time, but it's clearly happening.
 
It has English subtitles and sets out to explains why - amongst the elite of powerful people in Russia - Putin is now seen as their biggest problem.

 
At the beginning you have that main Russian propaganda show saying they’re coming for the territory they lost when the USSR collapsed, that they’re coming for half of Poland and all the Baltic states.

They claim North Korea is “sovereign” because they have nuclear weapons and Poland isn’t, so this seems to be what Putin meant by “sovereignty” in his speech the other day.

As if Poland couldn’t make a nuke if they needed to.

 

Taking into account the huge superiority of the rushist regime in terms of weapons and troops, they have had very little gains thus far. Once the lend-lease starts coming into play properly, things will get much worse for them.
 
Well, we've been hearing that for months. Not that I don't believe it, but it hasn't quite translated yet to many Ukrainian ground victories.

We should not forget that at the start of this war Ukraine was about 1-to-10 in heavy weapons, artillery and air force. I don't know how much this has changed so far, but it is amazing that they survived at all. The Russians are carpet bombing them and they cannot answer because they don't have an air force, and they don't have long range rockets to destroy the Russian artillery.

I am worried that the West is not doing enough to help them, and the Ukrainians might be suffering heavy losses. I do not understand why the West says that Ukrainians cannot hit any targets inside Russia, while their own cities have been bombarded mercilessly for 100+ days. On 7th Dec 1941 the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, and 132 days later the Americans did a suicide mission to attack Tokyo, just to show the Japanese that they own country is not safe. England also attacked German cities. I don't understand why Ukraine does not have the right to attack Russian cities, while Ukrainian cities are being decimated. I think that the major problem here is that all the Western leaders are very weak (including Biden).
 
@frostbite I fully agree with you there. Who the feck are they to tell Ukraine what to do and not what to do?

It makes no sense to anyone that the West can dare telling Ukraine to limit the war within its own borders and to not fire back at Russian-based targets. The war will not end by some politician drawing a line on a map because a limited war doesn't do any good. In itself, it's immoral for anyone to send soldiers to war unless total victory is sought. Sometimes you have to play dirty than your enemy in order to win a war; that is what Western governments often forget nowadays.
 
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We should not forget that at the start of this war Ukraine was about 1-to-10 in heavy weapons, artillery and air force. I don't know how much this has changed so far, but it is amazing that they survived at all. The Russians are carpet bombing them and they cannot answer because they don't have an air force, and they don't have long range rockets to destroy the Russian artillery.

I am worried that the West is not doing enough to help them, and the Ukrainians might be suffering heavy losses. I do not understand why the West says that Ukrainians cannot hit any targets inside Russia, while their own cities have been bombarded mercilessly for 100+ days. On 7th Dec 1941 the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, and 132 days later the Americans did a suicide mission to attack Tokyo, just to show the Japanese that they own country is not safe. England also attacked German cities. I don't understand why Ukraine does not have the right to attack Russian cities, while Ukrainian cities are being decimated. I think that the major problem here is that all the Western leaders are very weak (including Biden).

It's the concern of Nuclear escalation.
 
Well, we've been hearing that for months. Not that I don't believe it, but it hasn't quite translated yet to many Ukrainian ground victories.

Over these months Russia has gone from pushing on 4 or 5 different fronts to just one.
 
Sounds like Severodonetsk is under Russian control which creates a frontline made of the river across the East now the bridges are all blown. Wonder if Russia will stop there and declare ‘success’
 
Poland is all in now preparing, or at least deterring, a future war with Russia.



 
The way this is going, can Russia even afford to invade anyone else? I think Poland can relax a bit.
 
The way this is going, can Russia even afford to invade anyone else? I think Poland can relax a bit.
Maybe not immediately but these preparations will take a long time anyway. Settings things in motion right now is the correct call.
 
The way this is going, can Russia even afford to invade anyone else? I think Poland can relax a bit.
Surely not until they finish with Ukraine. But if NATO isn't going to prevent that defeat through attrition, they are going to have to fight themselves.
 
Sounds like Severodonetsk is under Russian control which creates a frontline made of the river across the East now the bridges are all blown. Wonder if Russia will stop there and declare ‘success’

I don't think it is - or not yet at least. And unless Russia can take both it and Lysychansk (the town across the river) they won't be able to claim they've taken the Luhansk region, far less the whole Donbas.
 
The way this is going, can Russia even afford to invade anyone else? I think Poland can relax a bit.

Seems very unlikely at this point, but it seems wise to look at long term possibilities. If Russia somehow does continue steady encroachment westward, if republicans take control in US and spend 8 years finishing what Trump started breaking down NATO, if Russian funds and propaganda continues making ground in the EU, putting more hard right parties into power, etc, etc...
 
I don't think it is - or not yet at least. And unless Russia can take both it and Lysychansk (the town across the river) they won't be able to claim they've taken the Luhansk region, far less the whole Donbas.
I feel like Putin lives off such a web of lies and disinformation, he can just say that was the goal of Lysuchansk proves too hard to take. From reports they’re already shelling it now and no doubt he’ll happily send another 30k Russians to their deaths if he can say ‘I won’.