Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Yikes, someone asked for the mask to come off and then it did. :lol:

I think if we're talking about masks coming off, this is a much better example:

Europeans have to defend against the Russians in Europe, because Russia is attacking a country in Europe. Ukraine wanted to join EU, and the EU has to defend Ukraine.

If the Saudis are attacking Yemen, the Muslim countries around Yemen have the responsibility to do something about it. Since they do nothing, it is perfectly fine if the Europeans also do nothing.
 
Wow.. so much pro-surrender propaganda being spouted left right and centre lately. Russia must be running out of gas on the battlefield.

The more I hear the shouts for Ukraine to surrender, the better I rate their chances.
 
So any thoughts on how all of this ends? Back to the pre-invasion situation? Can Putin even afford that politically?

I posted a tweet here about 4939393 pages back of Western analysts predicting this could take years. 100 days into the invasion, it doesn't seem that outlandish anymore.
 
If I were "scared" I would simply take my family and move to my native England, it would be very easy for me to do that.

As for your post, you may well be correct but I obviously don't think so. Again, look at how the messaging from the West has been shifting over the last month. Back in March and April everyone was gung-ho for supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes". In my opinion this was driven by the belief that Russia's war was being so ineptly carried out that Putin would be suffocated into a quick defeat ("there'll be nothing left of the Russian economy by June!"). But that is not going to happen. Back in March the New York Times was one of the biggest proponents of the idea that America should give all the money and weapons Ukraine needs in order to 'win'. Fast forward a couple of months and now we're getting this, from the editorial board:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/america-ukraine-war-support.html

In addition, more and more articles on the American news sites are starting to mention "the midterms" when writing about America's financial support of the war, as in "Biden needs to be wary of the midterms". Why? If, as Pelosi and Schumer and all the rest keep saying, "America will stand with our Ukrainian friends until victory is won" (sound familiar Afghanis?) then why do the midterms matter? We know the answer of course. America's debt is currently about 130% of GDP, prices are through the roof, gas prices have doubled, Biden has countless problems back in America, his ratings are subterranean and come November it is going to be increasingly difficult to explain to Americans why he's continuing to send billions of dollars to Ukraine. Especially when more people will be realising that this war has nothing to do with "defending Ukrainian democracy" or whatever other fatuous nonsense they've been saying about the reasons for this invasion. 'Zelenskiy' is saying he won't make any compromises and he won't even start negotiations until the Russian army has withdrawn to its pre-February 24th position. That is never going to happen. Therefore, unless the Biden Admin want to be exposed as liars, it means they're going to have to fund Ukraine's war indefinitely. And as I've suggested, all those who are hoping the printing press will continue to just print more money to pay for it all are going to be sorely disappointed. With everyone from the governor of the Bank of England...

https://www.ft.com/content/0a8f0465-12ed-412b-94cb-571f9fb6f0d4

...to the CEO of JPMorgan Chase...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jam...ricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html

...saying financial armageddon is on the way, and the Biden Admin making the blunder of calling it all a "Putin price hike" (well then why are you looking to extend it rather than press Zelenskiy to sue for peace?), continuing to fund Ukraine's war will be risky at best, political suicide at worst. Americans don't care about "Ukrainian freedom". They simply don't. The Americans (including in this thread) who are demanding Ukraine fight on to the last Ukrainian soldier and, ideally, the last European euro are doing so because this war is riveting entertainment for them, and because - an American trait - they don't believe that the bill will ever come. "Printing press go buuuuurrrrrr", right? Wrong. Not this time.

Put bluntly, everyone was adamant back in March that the West must bankroll Ukraine's push for total victory because it was believed that the sanctions would quickly cripple Putin's war machine. They haven't, and they won't. And that's why France and Germany have been trying to push 'Zelenskiy' to sue for peace, and why in the last few days even America has said they're going to consider Italy's 4-step proposal for a peaceful settlement (a month ago they dismissed any such talk out of hand). Without NATO boots on the ground (something Ukraine has been desperately trying to make happen), there is no realistic scenario where the Ukrainians win, and they will have to cede territory. Literally everyone in politics knows this, they're just afraid to say it because they see what happens to people (Kissinger for example) who do, they get the facile "Neville Chamberlain and Hitler!" nonsense.

Furthermore (to sum up my main point), an economic collapse is coming, but for Ukraine, not Russia. Ukraine lived on its heavy industry, its grain exports, and the transit fees for Russian oil and gas. All have now gone and Zelenskiy needs something like 10 billion dollars A MONTH only to keep his economy afloat, without even considering the war costs (sidebar - how much money are the billionaire Ukrainian oligarchs sending to Ukraine from their Swiss chateaus? The British taxpayers sent 300 million last month, how much did Zelenskiy's boss Kolomoiyskiy send?). Russia can still export its resources to the non-Western world whereas Ukraine is now wholly reliant on its new 'sponsor' from across the pond, and, as many countries have experienced, the US is a very capricious 'sponsor'.

I'll post this link from today, but I'll add the acknowledgement that The Hill is not exactly first rate journalism (still a sounder source than Glaston's psychic friend though). Nevertheless I think it raises points that are worth considering:

https://thehill.com/opinion/interna...-win-a-public-relations-war-against-the-west/


Simultaneously, the heretofore skimpy and universally negative reporting of Putin’s intentions has begun to morph into a dawning perception that the Russian leader’s strategy of conquering a land bridge to Crimea and gaining a chokehold on the entire Ukrainian economy, via total control of the Black Sea coastline, is not quite as inept as previously reported.

Another element of the conventional wisdom now crumbling is the idea that the crippling sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union nations would soon bring the Russian economy to its knees. Instead, there is evidence that the opposite may be occurring, with sanctions doing more damage to Western economies than to Russia’s. Far from being the “rubble” predicted by President Biden, the ruble hit a two-year high in May and Russian energy and agricultural exports were producing record high revenues, in large part because Europe and much of the rest of the world can’t do without them.

Related to these phenomena is the utter unreality of the war’s foundational myth — namely that the United States has rallied almost the entire world against a nearly totally isolated Russia. In truth, of the world’s 195 countries only 65 have agreed to join the American sanctions regime — meaning that 130 have refused, including China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, most of Asia, Africa and Latin America, countries that together constitute the vast majority of the world’s population.

Consider also that the nations the U.S. currently targets with sanctions represent a powerful bloc strongly opposing what they regard as America’s economic bullying. A striking example of the rejection of U.S. assumptions of dominance was a recent meeting of the world’s leading financial nations — the G-20 Summit — when the U.S. delegation walked out on a speech by a Russian delegate and only three of the other 19 delegations followed suit.

This whole post amounts to clutching at straws.

What a handful of newspaper articles say, and what the CEO of JPMorgan Chase thinks, doesn't amount to a hill of beans against the wider bedrock reality: the vast majority of the Western world has finally seen Russian fascism for what it is and recognised that an existential struggle is unfolding. This is why Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO. This is why Denmark is signing up to the EU's defence programme. This is why large amounts of weapons and money are being sent to Ukraine - a process that the West can continue indefinitely if needed, because their combined economic power is vastly, vastly bigger than Russia's.

And who cares if "only" 65 countries have joined the sanctions regime? Those countries represent a huge proportion of the world's total economic power. And if you want to count countries, try counting the only four countries - North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, Belarus - that (apart from Russia itself) voted against condemning Russia's aggression in the UN vote in March.

You're living in fantasy land if you believe that Russia's economy isn't going to be devastated by the sanctions. And you're living in fantasy land if you believe that the ruble isn't being artificially propped up by various measures that can't continue indefinitely. Fast forward a year from now and - if Putin is still in power - the Russian economy will be collapsing around your ears.
 
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So any thoughts on how all of this ends? Back to the pre-invasion situation? Can Putin even afford that politically?

I posted a tweet here about 4939393 pages back of Western analysts predicting this could take years. 100 days into the invasion, it doesn't seem that outlandish anymore.

It will end when there is a extended stalemate on the battleground, as it usually does. Right now it's still early days yet. Ukraine are yet to start using those shiny new MLRS and HIMARS.

However, I am quite certain the West won't provide any weapons more powerful than MLRS. If Ukraine cannot do it with these rockets, then the end will be nigh and the time to stalemate is probably around the horizon.
 
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So any thoughts on how all of this ends? Back to the pre-invasion situation? Can Putin even afford that politically?

I posted a tweet here about 4939393 pages back of Western analysts predicting this could take years. 100 days into the invasion, it doesn't seem that outlandish anymore.

It could indeed go on for years. I don't see it ending unless Putin is removed from office - one way or another - and some new regime decides to pull back to the pre-invasion situation and blame the whole sorry mess on Putin.
 
So any thoughts on how all of this ends? Back to the pre-invasion situation? Can Putin even afford that politically?

I posted a tweet here about 4939393 pages back of Western analysts predicting this could take years. 100 days into the invasion, it doesn't seem that outlandish anymore.

There may be a time when Putin hangs on to the Donbass and Crimea and we end up in a stalemate, but without a peace agreement. At that point the Russia/Ukraine border could end up highly militarised with all sorts of weapons sent from Europe and the US to bolster the Ukrainian side.
 
Wow.. so much pro-surrender propaganda being spouted left right and centre lately. Russia must be running out of gas on the battlefield.

The more I hear the shouts for Ukraine to surrender, the better I rate their chances.

Aye, Putin's only real way out of this is a negotiated ceasefire. We know they have a lot of influence among western media so these calls are only going to get louder.
 
What a handful of newspaper articles say, and what the CEO of JPMorgan Chase thinks, doesn't amount to a hill of beans against the wider bedrock reality: the vast majority of the Western world has finally seen Russian fascism for what it is and recognised that an existential struggle is unfolding.

This is an 8-year regional conflict between 2 corrupt oligarchies and only on Planet Fatuous Bullshit does the narrative of "Putin invaded because he hates having a democracy on his border!" find a simple-minded audience. Your new hero Zelenskiy was wildly unpopular in Ukraine before the invasion because he's as bent as all the others who came before him:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/20...dent-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy

When governments feed this "Ukraine is fighting for all of Western democracy!" nonsense to credulous idiots they do so because it's been demonstrated to them time and time again that they can.

While you're here, this will sound like I'm taking the piss but I'm honestly not, I have a genuine question: have you asked your psychic friend how and when this war will end, or does he only do medical reports?
 
There may be a time when Putin hangs on to the Donbass and Crimea and we end up in a stalemate, but without a peace agreement. At that point the Russia/Ukraine border could end up highly militarised with all sorts of weapons sent from Europe and the US to bolster the Ukrainian side.

This is the calculus the US and other leading western states are likely banking on. Russia’s resources are increasingly limited as war and sanctions gradually erode them from within, whereas Ukrainian morale and resources from the west are virtually unlimited. So at some undefined point in the future, there will be a tipping point where Russian resolve collapses and Putin is either murdered or deposed from within.
 
This is the calculus the US and other leading western states are likely banking on. Russia’s resources are increasingly limited as war and sanctions gradually erode them from within, whereas Ukrainian morale and resources from the west are virtually unlimited. So at some undefined point in the future, there will be a tipping point where Russian resolve collapses and Putin is either murdered or deposed from within.
It would also help if the Republican Party returned to their pre-Trump foreign policy positions too.
 
This is an 8-year regional conflict between 2 corrupt oligarchies and only on Planet Fatuous Bullshit does the narrative of "Putin invaded because he hates having a democracy on his border!" find a simple-minded audience.

Wait ... wasn't it about liberating Ukraine which is ruled by Nazis ? I mean because of simple minded audience.
 
This is an 8-year regional conflict between 2 corrupt oligarchies and only on Planet Fatuous Bullshit does the narrative of "Putin invaded because he hates having a democracy on his border!" find a simple-minded audience. Your new hero Zelenskiy was wildly unpopular in Ukraine before the invasion because he's as bent as all the others who came before him:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/20...dent-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy

When governments feed this "Ukraine is fighting for all of Western democracy!" nonsense to credulous idiots they do so because it's been demonstrated to them time and time again that they can ...

There is not even remotely an equivalence - moral or otherwise - between the Ukrainian government under Zelensky and Putin's regime. The fact that you can't or won't see this speaks volumes about your intelligence and honesty.

Russian has invaded Ukraine - not the other way around. Russia is razing Ukrainian cities to the ground - not the other way around. Russian troops are murdering and raping Ukrainians - not the other way around. Ukraine is not a fascist state, whilst Russia is well on the way towards becoming a fascist state.
 
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There is not even remotely an equivalence - moral or otherwise - between the Ukrainian government under Zelensky and Putin's regime. The fact that you can't or won't see this speaks volumes about your intelligence and honesty.

Russian has invaded Ukraine - not the other way around. Russia is razing Ukrainian cities to the ground - not the other way around. Russian troops are murdering and raping Ukrainians - not the other way around. Ukraine is not a fascist state, whilst Russia has become a fascist state.
Granted it's not quite your psychiс friend but I'm assuming you'll accept the United Nations' own OSCE as a source?

War crimes of the armed forces and security forces of Ukraine: torture and inhumane treatment

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf

That first photo is of a Ukrainian citizen tortured to death by the Ukrainian SBU back in 2014, when this conflict began. And from there you have 74 more pages of something other than "Putin invaded because he hates democracy!"
 
... I'm assuming you'll accept the United Nation's own OSCE as a source?

War crimes of the armed forces and security forces of Ukraine: torture and inhumane treatment

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf

Every military in every country in the world has at least a few bad apples. The difference with Russian troops is that it's systemic - they are actively encouraged by their commanders to behave in such ways as part of their doctrine of war-fighting.
 
Every military in every country in the world has at least a few bad apples. The difference with Russian troops is that it's systemic - they are actively encouraged by their commanders to behave in such ways as part of their doctrine of war-fighting.

I don't think that we need to dismiss the allegations. They can be investigated and if guilt is established the perpetrators should be punished.
 
Every military in every country in the world has at least a few bad apples.
You read all 74 pages of proven systemic war crimes ordered from the highest level of the "democratic" Ukrainian government in just 90 seconds? I've under-estimated your intelligence.
 
Granted it's not quite your psychiс friend but I'm assuming you'll accept the United Nations' own OSCE as a source?

War crimes of the armed forces and security forces of Ukraine: torture and inhumane treatment

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf

That first photo is of a Ukrainian citizen tortured to death by the Ukrainian SBU back in 2014, when this conflict began. And from there you have 74 more pages of something other than "Putin invaded because he hates democracy!"

So I suppose you would accept an osce investigation into the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine ?

Then what would be the point of the invasion; because there were crimes we send an army to commit many more and all kinds of crimes ? Explain that to me.
 
I don't think that we need to dismiss the allegations. They can be investigated and if guilt is established the perpetrators should be punished.

I agree - and I haven't dismissed the allegations.
 
France has shown itself to the rest of the democratic world that in time of crisis it is not a country that can be relied upon.
France showed that back in 2003 when they tried to prevent the US from bringing democracy to Irak... But they've learned since then and led the way in bringing democracy to Libya.

On a more serious note, what are you basing this on? They encouraged Finland and Sweden to join Nato and issued a strong statement supporting the process, bringing Nato closer to Russia (not really something "appeasing" for Putin).



Their foreign minister was in Ukraine this week and announced sending in more heavy artillery...

 
So I suppose you would accept an osce investigation into the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine ?

Then what would be the point of the invasion; because there were crimes we send an army to commit many more and all kinds of crimes ? Explain that to me.
I haven't read all that guy's posts but he strikes me as someone who thinks that we all think Ukraine is the bestest and most morally righteous country in the world.

I assume most posters here on the Caf would know Ukraine is actually quite corrupt and most likely not ready for EU-membership. But guess what, that is all besides the point anyway. In this conflict Russia is the clear aggressor.
 
You read all 74 pages of proven systemic war crimes ordered from the highest level of the "democratic" Ukrainian government in just 90 seconds? I've under-estimated your intelligence.

I suggest you take your absurd attempts to paint an equivalence between the Ukrainian and Russian governments - all designed to somehow justify Russia's invasion - and shove them where the sun don't shine.
 
So I suppose you would accept an osce investigation into the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine ?

Then what would be the point of the invasion; because there were crimes we send an army to commit many more and all kinds of crimes ? Explain that to me.

To your first point, absolutely yes, I not only 'accept' that but I welcome it, and one is currently going on (not only from OSCE by the way). The Russian army is committing war crimes now in Ukraine and those who are doing it and ordering it should be held responsible, especially Putin. How many times do I need to type this? I'll try once more: EVERY last shred of moral high ground Putin perceived he had over the 'war-mongering West' was napalmed the day (March 16th) he deliberately bombed Ukrainian children in the Mariupol theatre.

And forgive me for being blunt but your 2nd 'point' is silly. You very obviously have no idea what any of this conflict is about beyond what you've been drip-fed about "Russia is invading a flourishing democracy because it's a threat to Putin's autocracy!" On February 23rd Putin explained his rationale for the invasion and he also stated his 3 aims. You are free to disagree with him but in order to do that you must first know what he actually said. It's clear to me that you don't.

It's late here and I'm done for the night.
 
This is the calculus the US and other leading western states are likely banking on. Russia’s resources are increasingly limited as war and sanctions gradually erode them from within, whereas Ukrainian morale and resources from the west are virtually unlimited. So at some undefined point in the future, there will be a tipping point where Russian resolve collapses and Putin is either murdered or deposed from within.

That point in the future will be reached sooner if the West manage to cut Russia off from China, and for that to happen there needs to be some sort of a comprehensive deal -a truce in the "cold trade war"?- with China to make them throw the Russian regime under the bus. Push the commercial conflict with China down the line. And hope the regime in China learns a lesson from Putin's fate...
 
France showed that back in 2003 when they tried to prevent the US from bringing democracy to Irak... But they've learned since then and led the way in bringing democracy to Libya.

On a more serious note, what are you basing this on? They encouraged Finland and Sweden to join Nato and issued a strong statement supporting the process, bringing Nato closer to Russia (not really something "appeasing" for Putin).



Their foreign minister was in Ukraine this week and announced sending in more heavy artillery...


Tens of thousands of dead civilians in Ukraine because of Russian aggresion but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want Russias cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering.
 
And forgive me for being blunt but your 2nd 'point' is silly. You very obviously have no idea what any of this conflict is about beyond what you've been drip-fed about "Russia is invading a flourishing democracy because it's a threat to Putin's autocracy!" On February 23rd Putin explained his rationale for the invasion and he also stated his 3 aims. You are free to disagree with him but in order to do that you must first know what he actually said. It's clear to me that you don't.

It's late here and I'm done for the night.

Where did I write something about a flourishing democracy in Ukraine ? And I‘ve read what Putin said, for example to denazify the Ukraine … well yes I disagree
;)
thanks for the answer anyway
 
Tens of thousands of dead civilians in Ukraine because of Russian aggresion but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering.
And that's America's domain dammit!!!

Ok with that easy but admittedly cheap shot I really am off for the night.
 
Tens of thousands of dead civilians in Ukraine because of Russian aggresion but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want Russias cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering.

If Western Europe was sensible we would all move to 100% renewables as soon as practically possible, and not flinch in that task.
 
To your first point, absolutely yes, I not only 'accept' that but I welcome it, and one is currently going on (not only from OSCE by the way). The Russian army is committing war crimes now in Ukraine and those who are doing it and ordering it should be held responsible, especially Putin. How many times do I need to type this? I'll try once more: EVERY last shred of moral high ground Putin perceived he had over the 'war-mongering West' was napalmed the day (March 16th) he deliberately bombed Ukrainian children in the Mariupol theatre.

And forgive me for being blunt but your 2nd 'point' is silly. You very obviously have no idea what any of this conflict is about beyond what you've been drip-fed about "Russia is invading a flourishing democracy because it's a threat to Putin's autocracy!" On February 23rd Putin explained his rationale for the invasion and he also stated his 3 aims. You are free to disagree with him but in order to do that you must first know what he actually said. It's clear to me that you don't.

It's late here and I'm done for the night.

Could you succinctly state your view of this war? I'm genuinely interested. Do you believe Russia had legitimate reasons to invade Ukraine ?
 
Tens of thousands of dead civilians in Ukraine because of Russian aggresion but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want Russias cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering.
I don't think he's ever said that. And I find it weird to be sending some of France's deadliest material to Ukraine if he really thought it was so important to avoid Russia's humiliation.

Oil has been stopped already... France consumes very little Gas in general. It is only 15% of their energy consumption (Nuclear energy first). And only 15% of that gas comes from Russia. Amounting to less than 2,5 % of France's energy consumption.
 
I don't think he's ever said that. And I find it weird to be sending some of France's deadliest material to Ukraine if he really thought it was so important to avoid Russia's humiliation.

Oil has been stopped already... France consumes very little Gas in general. It is only 15% of their energy consumption (Nuclear energy first). And only 15% of that gas comes from Russia. Amounting to less than 2,5 % of France's energy consumption.