Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

From the BBC:

"Earlier we brought you comments from the Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk region, saying Ukrainian forces had driven Russian troops back in Severodonetsk, recapturing 20% of lost territory.

Now we have some more from Serhiy Haidai - who says the Russian military has lost a lot of military hardware and personnel in the city.

"I have personally heard many times that the Russian army has captured Severodonetsk completely," he says, via Interfax-Ukraine. "I want to tell you no, not completely."

He says Russia is "trying to redeploy certain forces" to capture the eastern city - but says [self-proclaimed] Donetsk People's Republic fighters are refusing to fight for the [self-proclaimed] Luhansk People's Republic.

Haidai adds the Ukrainian army does not have long-range weapons for a full-fledged counter-offensive, but says as soon as they receive enough of weapons from Western partners, the "enemy artillery will be moved away from Ukrainian positions".

The BBC has not been able to independently verify his claims. You can read our earlier story about some Russian troops refusing to return to the front line here."
 
Beans said:
Russia made a push towards Odessa after the retreat from Kiev, and some US official commented that it's failure was huge because Russia wouldn't be able to make another push like that due to dwindling reserves and equipment. No idea if that's really true, of course. Here's an article about attacking Odessa being too difficult but it's not very informative.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/04/a-russian-attack-on-odessa-could-be-naval-suicide/
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Unless something dramatic happens, Putin's chances of taking Odesa are slim to none at this point. His best bet at attempting to frame this mess as a success would be to claim Mariupol and a few more towns in Donbas then abruptly call for negotiations.
 
Raoul said:
Unless something dramatic happens, Putin's chances of taking Odesa are slim to none at this point. His best bet at attempting to frame this mess as a success would be to claim Mariupol and a few more towns in Donbas then abruptly call for negotiations.
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I’ve read the same, couldn’t dig up any links though.
 
Cheimoon said:
I agree. People don't like reading what @DT12 writes, but he's not defending anything, just providing a different perspective on current and future developments based on different information. At no point did @DT12 say that the war is justified, that Putin is right, or that there are no war crimes. In fact, he has clearly stated the opposite (might have been in the Newbies thread). Given how the thread has turned into a echo chamber for all wishful thinking about Ukrainian success (a good part of it unreliable, and another good part of it too one-sided to give a fulsome view of developments), I think it's good to have that counter-perspective.
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Thank you for writing this. Because yes, the lengthy post I wrote in the Newbies section very clearly stated that I do NOT support Putin (I wrote about the sense of bewilderment that existed here in St Petersburg in the days after February 24th, and how almost everyone here has either a friend, relative or colleague over in Ukraine in danger of getting shelled by Russian bombs now), I wrote that Putin's stupid, rambling, hour-long faux-intellectual lecture on Ukraine's legitimacy as a sovereign state falls apart if you go further back than his convenient starting point of 1922, I wrote about how his promise to de-Nazify Ukraine of its Jewish-installed (Kolomoiskiy) Jewish president was dumber than sh*t, and - it may not have been here but it was certainly somewhere online, I'll write it now anyway - ANY moral authority Putin may have ever felt he had over 'the West' and its war-mongering was napalmed when his bombs killed Ukrainian children in - among many other places - the theatre at Mariupol.

Let me state clearly: Putin is in the wrong here. And I don't write that because of any childish moral bullying in this thread about "you're defending war crimes!", but because my entire reason for posting on this forum having only lurked on the forum for 8 years was to offer a perspective that simply isn't getting posted here, but it needs to be. All I have done is offer my opinion on why Putin is going to win this war. And for that, I've been publicly called a "c*nt" by that guy who announced he's putting me on ignore (what is it with proponents of 'freedom and tolerance' and instantly shutting themselves off from alternate viewpoints while calling people "c*nts"? Is this what Western liberal democracy looks like these days? Is this what you're calling upon Russia to become?).

Europe does actually need to start at least considering that Putin is going to win this. And that in the years to come they are going to have extraordinary economic problems because of the decisions they are making now out of emotion and not calm analysis. I'll say what I said earlier: for all the US and the UK are congratulating the EU for irreversibly cutting themselves off from Russian energy (because it suits the US and UK economically that Europe is doing this; Boris Johnson in particular can't believe his luck in how utterly stupid his old enemy the EU is being right now), the US is still quietly buying all it needs from Russia, including Uranium.

Europe needs to ask itself this question: what would America do now if they were in our position? And the answer would be: not this. This is a country that a month after Saudi Arabia chopped up Khashoggi was selling half a billion dollars of weapons to the regime that did it so they could bomb Yemeni civilians. It's a country that invaded Grenada over a fruit company and Panama over a canal. And I don't write that in any condemnatory way but just as a fact. America is as successful and as powerful as it is because everything it does is in its economic interests. They never make cataclysmic decisions based on emotion or morality. Yet Germany is currently doing that very thing. As is France. And as is Italy. Last week the Prime Minister of Latvia was asked about potential economic problems for his country if the 6th round of Russian sanctions went though. You know what he said? "It's only money". An astonishing reply (but more understandable when you recognise that Eastern Europe's hopeful economic strategy is: "the United States will continue to bankroll us until the end of time"). Can you imagine an American politican saying that? "Sure our people are ready to suffer on behalf of another country, it's only money!" His career would be over the next day. This is a country whose elections are essentially decided on gas prices, not morality.

So my points here have been twofold. Firstly, Putin is going to win this war and it is long past time Europe starts to at least entertain this idea and figure out what will come next. And secondly, the prosperity that Western Europe - in particular Germany - has seen over the last 30 years has been due to their supposedly "unreliable" (and oh by the way unremittingly constant) flow of cheap Russian energy (CNN today had an article about how Europe is going to see a shift from the West to the East in terms of power dynamics within the EU). Without this, Germany would not have become the industrial powerhouse it is today. A decade from now Germany and France will be shells of what they were even 5 years ago in terms of the power and influence they have over European politics and business (don't forget, the politically friendless UK is hovering like a vulture ready to swoop in and feed off the EU's weakness). It is a misconception that non-Europeans have that the EU is a united bloc that helps each other out. It isn't, they are all suspicious rivals of one another (you'll notice how silent Poland and Bulgaria have fallen over the last week now that all these Ukrainian refugees are starting to complain about conditions). Putin knows this and is going to create havoc on the European continent in the years to come. And trust me, America is laughing its ass off right now at what Europe is doing, I mean their insane self-sabotage and willingness to float mouth-first onto a massive US energy hook. America is going to profit enormously from this war in the long term which is why they are going to do everything they can to prolong it, against the stated wishes of France and Germany, who will suffer most from it.

Finally: in an earlier post on here I said Donbas would fall to Russia by the end of June. I was mocked for writing it. Today the UK Ministry of Defence projected that Russia will take all of Luhansk within the next 2 weeks and after that Donesk will soon fall. You see, unlike Glaston's tweets, my posts on here are actually based on sober analysis of what's actually going on. For this I'm prepared to be unpopular but I'm not sure I warrant the "war-crime endorsing c*nt" epithet.
 
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DT12 said:
Europe does actually need to start at least considering that Putin is going to win this. And that in the years to come they are going to have extraordinary economic problems because of the decisions they are making now out of emotion and not calm analysis.
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Perhaps its you who should instead consider the reality that Putin cannot win this. The US and Europe aren't going to remove sanctions as long as he's in power and the Europeans have already begun to diversify away from Russian energy. The Russian economy cannot indefinitely survive with deep international sanctions inflicting massive losses in every sector, while the Ukrainians can easily recover from this through the same international investment currently being blocked in Russia, not to mention endless arms from the west. There's no way out for Putin other than death by illness or being overthrown from within.
 
Raoul said:
the Ukrainians can easily recover from this through the same international investment currently being blocked in Russia
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You have absolutely no idea how any of this works (would you like me to pull up some of your similarly confident pronouncements in this thread from back in March?). But anyway I look forward to revisiting this question around September time. I'll be sure to quote in full what you've just written.
 
Ukraine war: Hungry Africans are victims of the conflict, Macky Sall tells Vladimir Putin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61685383

African countries are innocent victims of the war in Ukraine and Russia should help ease their suffering, the head of the African Union has told Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Russia.

After talks in Sochi, Macky Sall said the Russian leader had promised to ease the export of cereals and fertiliser, but gave no details.

Mr Putin denied Moscow was preventing Ukrainian ports from exporting grain.

Over 40% of wheat consumed in Africa usually comes from Russia and Ukraine.

But Ukraine's ports in the Black Sea have been largely blocked for exports since the conflict began. Kyiv and its allies blame Moscow for blockading the ports, which Ukraine has mined to prevent a Russian amphibious assault.

"Failure to open those ports will result in famine," the UN's crisis coordinator Amin Awad said in Geneva.

He said a grain shortage could affect 1.4 billion people and trigger mass migration.

The war has exacerbated already existing shortages in Africa caused by bad harvests and insecurity.
 
DT12 said:
You have absolutely no idea how any of this works (would you like me to pull up some of your similarly confident pronouncements in this thread from back in March?). But anyway I look forward to revisiting this question around September time. I'll be sure to quote in full what you've just written.
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For someone who professes to want Putin to lose that is an odd thing to look forward to.
 
DT12 said:
You have absolutely no idea how any of this works (would you like me to pull up some of your similarly confident pronouncements in this thread from back in March?). But anyway I look forward to revisiting this question around September time. I'll be sure to quote in full what you've just written.
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I noted from the beginning that Putin has made a massive mistake, which it appears he has. NATO has expanded and he has been severely weakened, as have Russia’s so called interests under his totalitarian dictatorship. Time to pull off the mask and concede this has clearly not gone to plan and Russia is far weaker today than it was 100 days ago.
 
WI_Red said:
For someone who professes to want Putin to lose that is an odd thing to look forward to.
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This thread will improve immeasurably if fatuous stuff like this stops being written, i.e "Ooooh you're posting heterodox, it means YOU WANT PUTIN TO WIN!"

What I am saying is that Raoul is living on a separate planet (and has been since March if his posts in this thread can be reliably judged) if he thinks the West is going to keep on writing blank cheques for Ukraine, or that anyone in the West actually cares about that country beyond its ability to be used as a sacrificial pawn to weaken Putin's army.
 
Raoul said:
I noted from the beginning that Putin has made a massive mistake, which it appears he has. NATO has expanded and he has been severely weakened, as have Russia’s so called interests under his totalitarian dictatorship. Time to pull off the mask and concede this has clearly not gone to plan and Russia is far weaker today than it was 100 days ago.
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As is every country in the world because of this war. And so the question becomes: what does the next 6 months look like? Who holds which cards? Because while the USA is making sure it's getting a monopoly on Russian uranium (while hypocritically bullying the EU into cutting itself off from Russian energy), I'm curious how you think the EU is going to magically transition to "cleaner energy" without buying all the stuff they'll need to do that from Russia. If you seriously think this country can be isolated from the global economy then you don't understand the basics of the issue.
 
DT12 said:
What I am saying is that Raoul is living on a separate planet (and has been since March if his posts in this thread can be reliably judged) if he thinks the West is going to keep on writing blank cheques for Ukraine, or that anyone in the West actually cares about that country beyond its ability to be used as a sacrificial pawn to weaken Putin's army.
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Which is exactly why I think Russia might not win. The US will keep supplying weapons to Ukraine to ensure Russia isn't winning (but not necessarily defeated either). Cause every day the war continues, Russia gets a little weaker.
 
I don't see a particularly happy future for Europe if Putin wins, or at least if he satisfies his initial definition of winning.

Moldova and Georgia will soon be next, given they are outside of the EU and NATO.

If Putin succeeds in Ukraine they further attempts will be made to subvert Western European democracy. We have already seen attempts to interfere with elections and extra-judicial killings and that is before this war.

There may be more brazen attempts and threats made toward ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

Then perhaps a new Cold War?

I hate sounding like there is a clash of civilisations, but I do think that this conflict is far more existential in nature than given credit for.
 
Carolina Red said:
You posted that you look forward to rubbing it in someone’s face that they were wrong about Ukraine winning… I don’t know what you expect folks to take from that.
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I naively expected you to read the full post and take from it something other than a facile reduction.
 
DT12 said:
This thread will improve immeasurably if fatuous stuff like this stops being written, i.e "Ooooh you're posting heterodox, it means YOU WANT PUTIN TO WIN!"

What I am saying is that Raoul is living on a separate planet (and has been since March if his posts in this thread can be reliably judged) if he thinks the West is going to keep on writing blank cheques for Ukraine, or that anyone in the West actually cares about that country beyond its ability to be used as a sacrificial pawn to weaken Putin's army.
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Yeah, never said you want Putin to win. I said it was weird you posting that you could not wait to gloat in a prediction that Putin/Russia were winning.
I, personally, think the GOP is going to take back congress this year. If someone said I was wrong I would reply with “I really hope you’re right”, not “I can’t wait to revisit this after the election”.

edit: what @Carolina Red said.
 
DT12 said:
As is every country in the world because of this war. And so the question becomes: what does the next 6 months look like? Who holds which cards? Because while the USA is making sure it's getting a monopoly on Russian uranium (while hypocritically bullying the EU into cutting itself off from Russian energy), I'm curious how you think the EU is going to magically transition to "cleaner energy" without buying all the stuff they'll need to do that from Russia. If you seriously think this country can be isolated from the global economy then you don't understand the basics of the issue.
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It’s long overdue for the EU to transition to other sources that don’t involve coercion by an authoritarian dictatorship - whether it’s North American shale LNG, supply from the Qatar and elsewhere in the Middle East, or other sources.

Putin clearly miscalculated wildly when he thought he would swoop in and claim Ukraine in days, just as he did in underestimating global resolve and solidarity implementing devastating and indefinite sanctions on Russia until Putin leaves Ukraine and compensates it for its losses.

Even if he were to improbably call for a ceasefire tomorrow, the sanctions wouldn’t be eased until Russia compensates the Ukrainians for the damage they’ve done. This of course will never happen since Putin can’t be seen as weak and surrendering to the west, which means there likely won’t be any sanctions relief until Putin is dead or removed, and the international community has security assurances future Russian governments won’t prey on their neighbors anymore.
 
DT12 said:
Thank you for writing this. Because yes, the lengthy post I wrote in the Newbies section very clearly stated that I do NOT support Putin (I wrote about the sense of bewilderment that existed here in St Petersburg in the days after February 24th, and how almost everyone here has either a friend, relative or colleague over in Ukraine in danger of getting shelled by Russian bombs now), I wrote that Putin's stupid, rambling, hour-long faux-intellectual lecture on Ukraine's legitimacy as a sovereign state falls apart if you go further back than his convenient starting point of 1922, I wrote about how his promise to de-Nazify Ukraine of its Jewish-installed (Kolomoiskiy) Jewish president was dumber than sh*t, and - it may not have been here but it was certainly somewhere online, I'll write it now anyway - ANY moral authority Putin may have ever felt he had over 'the West' and its war-mongering was napalmed when his bombs killed Ukrainian children in - among many other places - the theatre at Mariupol.

Let me state clearly: Putin is in the wrong here. And I don't write that because of any childish moral bullying in this thread about "you're defending war crimes!", but because my entire reason for posting on this forum having only lurked for 8 years was to offer a perspective that simply isn't getting posted here, but it needs to be. All I have done is offer my opinion on why Putin is going to win this war. And for that, I've been publicly called a "c*nt" by that guy who announced he's putting me on ignore (what is it with proponents of 'freedom and tolerance' and instantly shutting themselves off from alternate viewpoints while calling people "c*nts"? Is this what Western liberal democracy looks like these days? Is this what you're calling upon Russia to become?).

Europe does actually need to start at least considering that Putin is going to win this. And that in the years to come they are going to have extraordinary economic problems because of the decisions they are making now out of emotion and not calm analysis. I'll say what I said earlier: for all the US and the UK are congratulating the EU for irreversibly cutting themselves off from Russian energy (because it suits the US and UK economically that Europe is doing this; Boris Johnson in particular can't believe his luck in how utterly stupid his old enemy the EU is being right now), the US is still quietly buying all it needs from Russia, including Uranium.

Europe needs to ask itself this question: what would America do now if they were in our position? And the answer would be: not this. This is a country that a month after Saudi Arabia chopped up Khashoggi was selling half a billion dollars of weapons to the regime that did it so they could bomb Yemeni civilians. It's a country that invaded Grenada over a fruit company and Panama over a canal. And I don't write that in any condemnatory way but just as a fact. America is as successful and as powerful as it is because everything it does is in its economic interests. They never make cataclysmic decisions based on emotion or morality. Yet Germany is currently doing that very thing. As is France. And as is Italy. Last week the Prime Minister of Latvia was asked about potential economic problems for his country if the 6th round of Russian sanctions went though. You know what he said? "It's only money". An astonishing reply (but more understandable when you recognise that Eastern Europe's hopeful economic strategy is: "the United States will continue to bankroll us until the end of time"). Can you imagine an American politican saying that? "Sure our people are ready to suffer on behalf of another country, it's only money!" His career would be over the next day. This is a country whose elections are essentially decided on gas prices, not morality.

So my points here have been twofold. Firstly, Putin is going to win this war and it is long past time Europe starts to at least entertain this idea and figure out what will come next. And secondly, the prosperity that Western Europe - in particular Germany - has seen over the last 30 years has been due to their supposedly "unreliable" (and oh by the way unremittingly constant) flow of cheap Russian energy (CNN today had an article about how Europe is going to see a shift from the West to the East in terms of power dynamics within the EU). Without this, Germany would not have become the industrial powerhouse it is today. A decade from now Germany and France will be shells of what they were even 5 years ago in terms of the power and influence they have over European politics and business (don't forget, the politically friendless UK is hovering like a vulture ready to swoop in and feed off the EU's weakness). It is a misconception that non-Europeans have that the EU is a united bloc that helps each other out. It isn't, they are all suspicious rivals of one another (you'll notice how silent Poland and Bulgaria have fallen over the last week now that all these Ukrainian refugees are starting to complain about conditions). Putin knows this and is going to create havoc on the European continent in the years to come. And trust me, America is laughing its ass off right now at what Europe is doing, I mean their insane self-sabotage and willingness to float mouth-first onto a massive US energy hook. America is going to profit enormously from this war in the long term which is why they are going to do everything they can to prolong it, against the stated wishes of France and Germany, who will suffer most from it.

Finally: in an earlier post on here I said Donbas would fall to Russia by the end of June. I was mocked for writing it. Today the UK Ministry of Defence projected that Russia will take all of Luhansk within the next 2 weeks and after that Donesk will soon fall. You see, unlike Glaston's tweets, my posts on here are actually based on sober analysis of what's actually going on. For this I'm prepared to be unpopular but I'm not sure I warrant the "war-crime endorsing c*nt" epithet.
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I don't make tweets - I don't even have a personal Twitter account. Most of my posts in this thread cite tweets from other individuals or organisations - they are not mine - so again you confuse the messenger with the message.

You claim that "Putin is going to win this war" - I very much doubt that. I also very much doubt that Russia will control the Donbas by the end of June. And further, if Russia is going to take all of Luhansk in the next two weeks (which the UK MoD did not say was definitely going to happen) then they'd better get a move on because first they have to:

(a) Take Severodonetsk (the Russians claimed to have taken it several days ago, but the latest reports say very much otherwise); and then ...

(b) Make succcessful pontoon-crossings over the big river than sits between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk ... all the while being overlooked from the high ground on which Lysychansk sits and being bombarded by artillery from Lysychansk; and then ...

(c) Advance towards (under artillery bombardment) and the take (fighting uphill) Lysychansk - which is very well defended.

And/or they can try to take Lysychansk from the south, using troops that are trying to advance from that direction, but then these troops still have to first get there, under artillery fire from high ground, and then they too will have to fight uphill against well-defended positions.

As for the rest, it's actually classic Russian propaganda - trying to create the impression of mega divisions within Europe, and between Europe and the USA and UK, with all these nations allegedly trying to do each other down and just waiting to claw at each other's throats. Meanwhile, back in the real world, Europe and NATO are more united than ever before, with more countries applying to join NATO and now Denmark wanting to sign up the EU's defence pact. Some differences exist, of course, as you'd expect amongst any large group of nations, but these are minor in comparison to the new found sense of opposition to Russia's fascism.

You are woefully ignorant about EU finance if you actually believe (as you claim) that Eastern Europe' is depending on America bankrolling them. The EU's economy is nearly one-third of global GDP (in comparison, Russia's GDP is less than that of Italy). The sanctions will damage the EU, but Russia's economy will be damaged far more - and the EU is far more able to absorb the economic costs because its economy is vastly larger than that of Russia.
 
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Raoul said:
It’s long overdue for the EU to transition to other sources that don’t involve coercion by an authoritarian dictatorship - whether it’s North American shale LNG,
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Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.
 
DT12 said:
Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.
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I don’t care if it’s North American or not (even though the US is now the world top oil producer). There are plenty of other sources they can tap to where they don’t have to bow before a predatory dictatorship to fuel their cars and homes.
 
DT12 said:
Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.
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Nailed it. I always knew @Raoul was an executive for big oil. I bet he is making millions off this war. I bet he dines on Ukrainian children and washes it down with a crude oil mimosa.
 
DT12 said:
Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.
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Laughing is better than wiping them off the face of the planet, don’t you think?
 
DT12 said:
Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.
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You’re so right. Not only are we modmins, we also pull the strings on the global natural gas market. Take a bow, you’ve figured us out.
 
It is in Europe's best interests to cut themselves off Russian gas, not the US. The more dependent you are on Putin's gas, the more land he can take without so much as a whimper.

Its a seriously flawed assumption to think that he will stop at just Ukraine.

If Europe prefers to surrender one by one because they are all addicted to Russian gas, by all means, but I'm getting the feck outta here before he reaches France.
 
Frosty said:
I don't see a particularly happy future for Europe if Putin wins, or at least if he satisfies his initial definition of winning.

Moldova and Georgia will soon be next, given they are outside of the EU and NATO.

If Putin succeeds in Ukraine they further attempts will be made to subvert Western European democracy. We have already seen attempts to interfere with elections and extra-judicial killings and that is before this war.

There may be more brazen attempts and threats made toward ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

Then perhaps a new Cold War?

I hate sounding like there is a clash of civilisations, but I do think that this conflict is far more existential in nature than given credit for.
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I completely agree. We are living through a pivotal moment in history. Luckily, most of the Western nations have recognised this.
 
GlastonSpur said:
The EU's economy is nearly one-third of global GDP
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No it isn't. The US and EU combined account for about 30%.

Raoul said:
It’s long overdue for the EU to transition to other sources that don’t involve coercion by an authoritarian dictatorship - whether it’s North American shale LNG, supply from the Qatar and elsewhere in the Middle East, or other sources.
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There really aren't many sources of non-authoritarian oil. None, really, if you count Venezuela as authoritarian (Qatar is authoritarian). The sanctions don't make a lot of sense beyond sending a message of unity against Russia. Hard to see that holding up as winter comes.

DT12 said:
As is every country in the world because of this war.
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I think it's a war where everyone loses. Ukrainians obviously lose the most, Russians second most, Europeans third, and Americans fourth. It's bad all round.

Frosty said:
I don't see a particularly happy future for Europe if Putin wins, or at least if he satisfies his initial definition of winning.

Moldova and Georgia will soon be next, given they are outside of the EU and NATO.

If Putin succeeds in Ukraine they further attempts will be made to subvert Western European democracy. We have already seen attempts to interfere with elections and extra-judicial killings and that is before this war.

There may be more brazen attempts and threats made toward ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

Then perhaps a new Cold War?

I hate sounding like there is a clash of civilisations, but I do think that this conflict is far more existential in nature than given credit for.
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The last week or so reads to me like all actors have considered the only way out is a negotiated settlement (that's exactly what Biden said today and what thinktanks in America, which are hawkish, had said before). The thread is more pessimistic than the events of the past week imo. But no one knows what happens yet as Ukrainians are still happy to see what they can get on battlefield for now.
 
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