Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Interesting article. Was talking to an Eritrean guy the other day and he seemed to be very much of the opinion that Putin was hard done by in the western media and Russia will eventually win this war. Good thing is, they almost certainly won't so at least some of the facade will come down.
Interesting DW article about what Germany is (still not) doing to help Ukraine. Compare what Germany is (not) doing with what USA is doing.
https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-is-germany-losing-its-eu-leadership-role/a-61879431
"The European Union expects strong leadership of Germany. But in the current crisis, the German government has continually acted very late and only in response to external pressure," said Weichsel.
This Friday, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, told the RND media network that he believes "the chancellor doesn't want to deliver" weapons to Ukraine. "One can get the impression that they are waiting for a cease-fire," he said. "Then the pressure will be off Germany, and then there will be no need to make any more courageous decisions."
...
What can Germany do to regain trust? Political scientist Weichsel has three suggestions: "Support Ukraine's swift accession to the EU, provide consistent support for Ukraine's military defense, and complete a rapid and successful energy turnaround."
https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-is-germany-losing-its-eu-leadership-role/a-61879431
"The European Union expects strong leadership of Germany. But in the current crisis, the German government has continually acted very late and only in response to external pressure," said Weichsel.
This Friday, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, told the RND media network that he believes "the chancellor doesn't want to deliver" weapons to Ukraine. "One can get the impression that they are waiting for a cease-fire," he said. "Then the pressure will be off Germany, and then there will be no need to make any more courageous decisions."
...
What can Germany do to regain trust? Political scientist Weichsel has three suggestions: "Support Ukraine's swift accession to the EU, provide consistent support for Ukraine's military defense, and complete a rapid and successful energy turnaround."
The first real shift was the battle for Moscow, which was won by throwing tens of thousands of people into a meat grinder basically (which was more or less Stalin’s & Zhukov’s tactics for the entire war).
Lend lease program had played a crucial role in the strategic perspective but it was a bit later on, I wouldn’t say that the signing of that act was the moment when everything changed (especially due to the nature of lend lease — it’s not something that happens instantaneously).
Although it’s almost impossible to pick one moment or one program as something that won the entire war. Without the lend lease the win wouldn’t have happened, but I can name you multiple equally important factors without either of which happening Germany would’ve won.
Indeed impressive numbers on the military side, Ukraine won't be running out of equipment, ammo or supplies anytime soon. What does worry me on the other hand is their overall economy and the situation of the civilian population even in the large parts of the country that are untouched by the conflict or the areas liberated like Kyiv and surrounding. I heard somewhere that their GDP estimate for 2022 is now -50%, given the inability to do some of their regular economic activities such as the harvest and export of grains. That loss of income to the population is a number that I don't think the US & other countries will be willing to make up, and could eventually prove a limiting factor in how long Ukraine can prosecute the war.
That's all over Europe now. Gasum in Finland is one of the few companies explicitly saying no to this, and Gazprom cut them off now: no more Russian gas to Finland. But that covered only 5% of the Finnish gas anyway, so it's not a big issue. It's not as easy elsewhere.
Is there a feasible non violent resolution for Crimea? I ask specially to those who know more about the region's history and their people's point of view, like @harms.
For example, is there a chance that maybe one of the following solutions could appear in an eventual peace treaty?
1. Crimea as a UN sponsored protectorate, followed by a 10 year deferred referendum on the region's future.
2. Draw a soft land border that allows both countries to get their strategic goals (de facto control of their borders, secured water supply, free access to all ports, etc) instead of their military goals.
I'm aware that both scenarios would be rejected by both countries as of now, but I'm curious about the crimeans stance since we don't hear a lot from them.
For example, is there a chance that maybe one of the following solutions could appear in an eventual peace treaty?
1. Crimea as a UN sponsored protectorate, followed by a 10 year deferred referendum on the region's future.
2. Draw a soft land border that allows both countries to get their strategic goals (de facto control of their borders, secured water supply, free access to all ports, etc) instead of their military goals.
I'm aware that both scenarios would be rejected by both countries as of now, but I'm curious about the crimeans stance since we don't hear a lot from them.
Ultimately, paying in roubles is worth keeping the power on, imho. Of course, Russian blackmail won't end there, but still see I the logic.
They need to reactivate their nuclear reactors, surely.
One must also wonder how long until Ukraine disables the Russian pipes going through their territory.
It obviously depends a lot on how the war goes and if Putin manages to stay in power (and whenever his eventual successor would be one of his followers or someone with directly opposite views on the foreign politics in general).
I really don’t see any realistic scenario where this situation resolves without further violence. Ideally you’d have a proper lawful referendum at some point but it still won’t be fair as all of the sources of alternative political information are blocked by the Russian government and the people have been brainwashed by the Russian (and anti-Ukrainian) propaganda for the past 8 years.
But even if they weren’t, I can’t really remember the last time where a country willingly accepted independence of one of its states (and I’m talking about both Ukraine in 2014 and Russia in 2022 or further in the future). Possibly it would’ve happened in UK but the Scottish referendum didn’t go that way (although I’m really uninformed on the matter, just wanted to point that out before any of you guys go to correct me). I do believe, for example, that Crimea probably would’ve still voted to join Russia in 2014 if that referendum was done fair & square under the UN supervision, but we’ll never get to know now — and you can’t just roll back all that 8 years of Russia’s persistent attacks on Ukrainian sovereignty. And obviously the way it was done in reality makes the whole “referendum” thing null and void.
It's not so much a US and Europe information issue, it's more a 'Fascists unite above all' issue.
Fascism runs strong across the globe in 2022 apparently. We need to do something about it.
Thanks Elon.
Thank the US government. It bought them.
Would you? I think I would…
Could swear they've tried to exchange this dude several times already, for the British POW's at least? Could it be that he's not as important as we thought?
So she could call it a special sexual operation that she conducted out of pity afterwards? No thanks.
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Why are French, German, and Italian politicians trying to wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine as if it’s their choice?
Why are we discussing what land should the Ukrainians give to Russia to end this war?
Only Ukrainians should decide. The rest of us should just support them, like the US and UK do. It is better for the world if the invaders lose this war. It may teach other potential invaders that they will pay a high price for their foolishness. If Russia gets Crimea, or Donbass, or anything at all, it will only teach other dictators that an unprovoked invasion wins you land. If Russia loses badly, and pays reparations, then there is the hope that for a long time in the future we will have almost no wars because no one else will dare invade anyone.
So, again, why do some EU politicians try so hard to find a way to please Putin? We should not care about finding a way out for Putin. Putin already has a very easy way out of this by simply declaring win, saying that they killed all the nazis in Ukraine, and withdrawing all his forces from Ukraine (including Crimea). Ordinary Russians will believe all that bullshit because they already believe all these lies of their TV, or at least they pretend to (which is the same thing in practice). We should not give a damn about what Putin and the Russians want or desire, they have zero justification for all the destruction of lives and properties that they have caused.
Why are we discussing what land should the Ukrainians give to Russia to end this war?
Only Ukrainians should decide. The rest of us should just support them, like the US and UK do. It is better for the world if the invaders lose this war. It may teach other potential invaders that they will pay a high price for their foolishness. If Russia gets Crimea, or Donbass, or anything at all, it will only teach other dictators that an unprovoked invasion wins you land. If Russia loses badly, and pays reparations, then there is the hope that for a long time in the future we will have almost no wars because no one else will dare invade anyone.
So, again, why do some EU politicians try so hard to find a way to please Putin? We should not care about finding a way out for Putin. Putin already has a very easy way out of this by simply declaring win, saying that they killed all the nazis in Ukraine, and withdrawing all his forces from Ukraine (including Crimea). Ordinary Russians will believe all that bullshit because they already believe all these lies of their TV, or at least they pretend to (which is the same thing in practice). We should not give a damn about what Putin and the Russians want or desire, they have zero justification for all the destruction of lives and properties that they have caused.
Yet another failed attempt by the Russians to cross that same river:
River crossings under fire are among the hardest things a military can do. Russia might lose an entire brigade trying to cross that thing.
Russia is having a 1905 moment, it seems.
They should let them just enough to cross the river and then cut off from behind and destroy every unit that spills over. I am talking shit of course with all my RTS gaming experiences.
Letting Russians believe that they still have offensive capability where they are shit at could still be the best thing for Ukrainians. It might be more difficult for them when Russian troops start fortifying their defence on the other side of the river instead.
Letting Russians believe that they still have offensive capability where they are shit at could still be the best thing for Ukrainians. It might be more difficult for them when Russian troops start fortifying their defence on the other side of the river instead.
What politicians are you talking about?
Even so, there comes a time when an offensive is about the only way to make the cracks even more evident on the opponent's side. When the North Vietnamese led the Tet Offensive in 1968, that showed the cracks in the US support for South Vietnam and pushed the latter two more or less on the defensive afterwards. South Vietnam became a nation in turmoil both during and in the aftermath of the offensive as the following years became a slow death for the government. That could well be the case in the Donbas and in Luhansk should the Ukrainians attack and push their way through, so much that it shows locals that Russia CANNOT defend the enclaves properly.
The demise of Russia is something I am very much looking forward to in the coming years.
Will be sweet, sweet justice.
Will be sweet, sweet justice.