Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

RedDevilQuebecois said:
Even so, there comes a time when an offensive is about the only way to make the cracks even more evident on the opponent's side. When the North Vietnamese led the Tet Offensive in 1968, that showed the cracks in the US support for South Vietnam and pushed the latter two more or less on the defensive afterwards. South Vietnam became a nation in turmoil both during and in the aftermath of the offensive as the following years became a slow death for the government. That could well be the case in the Donbas and in Luhansk should the Ukrainians attack and push their way through, so much that it shows locals that Russia CANNOT defend the enclaves properly.
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I just think Ukrainians need a bit more time before they can do significant counterattacks with more new weapons coming in and more troops getting trained.
 
klsv said:
Could swear they've tried to exchange this dude several times already, for the British POW's at least? Could it be that he's not as important as we thought?
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Someone from Britain has suggested that move or maybe it has appeared in Daily Mail or something… but, surprisingly, Ukraine’s main priority is not rescuing British POW.

Although whenever Putin will go for that exchange (1900+ people for 1) is another matter. Maybe if they add some of POW that were captured by Ukraine?
 
The United said:
I just think Ukrainians need a bit more time before they can do significant counterattacks with more new weapons coming in and more troops getting trained.
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Exactly. The Ukranian commandment want to avoid heavy loss of lives, thus full-scale counter-attack is not considered at this stage. Long-range artillery seems to be the best option available for now. Wonder if more Russian ships will be targeted to make sure that the rushists are not allowed to build fortresses supported by their navy.
 
The United said:
I just think Ukrainians need a bit more time before they can do significant counterattacks with more new weapons coming in and more troops getting trained.
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Is the general consensus that this is what’s happening though? I.e. is Ukraine both absorbing their current losses AND getting stronger as the summer goes on? I hope that this is the case, I’m just not sure.
 
NotThatSoph said:
What politicians are you talking about?
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Scholz, Macron, Draghi.

"These calls are idiotic and damaging..."



https://www.politico.eu/article/zelenskyy-macron-asked-ukraine-concession-help-putin-save-face/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-draghi-calls-urgent-ceasefire-ukraine-2022-05-19/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...erating-frances-macron-over-putin-2022-04-04/


<<"One should not negotiate with criminals, one should fight them...Nobody negotiated with Hitler. Would you negotiate with Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot?" he added.>>
 
NicolaSacco said:
Is the general consensus that this is what’s happening though? I.e. is Ukraine both absorbing their current losses AND getting stronger as the summer goes on? I hope that this is the case, I’m just not sure.
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It doesn't necessarily matter of course. What matters is whether they are getting relatively stronger than the Russians, and judging by the scale of alleged problems on the Russian side then they will be.
 
TwoSheds said:
It doesn't necessarily matter of course. What matters is whether they are getting relatively stronger than the Russians, and judging by the scale of alleged problems on the Russian side then they will be.
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Yeah that’s true, and basically the definition of an attritional war. But yes i guess my question remains. Is Ukraine currently getting stronger relative to Russia? Lots of variables and not an easy question to answer.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Yeah that’s true, and basically the definition of an attritional war. But yes i guess my question remains. Is Ukraine currently getting stronger relative to Russia? Lots of variables and not an easy question to answer.
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Well if the info we're fed is true then yes, definitely. I do tend to take Twitter et al with a pinch of salt though.
 
frostbite said:
Scholz, Macron, Draghi.

"These calls are idiotic and damaging..."



https://www.politico.eu/article/zelenskyy-macron-asked-ukraine-concession-help-putin-save-face/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-draghi-calls-urgent-ceasefire-ukraine-2022-05-19/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...erating-frances-macron-over-putin-2022-04-04/


<<"One should not negotiate with criminals, one should fight them...Nobody negotiated with Hitler. Would you negotiate with Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot?" he added.>>
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I remember (much) earlier in this thread advocating for this kind of hard line approach, only to be accused of being a warmonger by various on here. It remains the case though - Putin and Russia only respect strength. Talk of concessions and ceasefires - hell, pretty much any kind of talk - will be seen as weakness.

Next time Lavrov or whoever starts talking about nukes, they should be reminded that other countries also have nukes, and that unlike Russia, their arsenals are probably full maintained and ready to go.
 
Walrus said:
I remember (much) earlier in this thread advocating for this kind of hard line approach, only to be accused of being a warmonger by various on here. It remains the case though - Putin and Russia only respect strength. Talk of concessions and ceasefires - hell, pretty much any kind of talk - will be seen as weakness.

Next time Lavrov or whoever starts talking about nukes, they should be reminded that other countries also have nukes, and that unlike Russia, their arsenals are probably full maintained and ready to go.
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The problem is, an immediate ceasefire would stop civilian deaths in the short term, and I fully understand how important that is. No ceasefire inevitably means more innocent women and children will die.

However there are longer term factors here. A significant degradation of the Russian army means they won’t be able to do this again any time soon. And regardless of the spin coming out of Russia there are going to be lots of high up people in the army and military who will remember this like the US remembers Vietnam. A significant and overt defeat of Russia could ensure that we have a generation of relative peace in Eastern Europe, by which time European reliance on Russian fossil fuels will be taken out of the equation.
 
Putin’s objective of keeping NATO from Russia’s borders has backfired big time as Sweden and Finland will now join NATO and ,if he takes the whole of Ukraine, again he will have more countries who are members. Conclusion, he did this out of vanity to play the hard man especially if the rumours about his failing health are true. I hope someone in the Kremlin will see sense and usurp Putin.
 
frostbite said:
Scholz, Macron, Draghi.

"These calls are idiotic and damaging..."



https://www.politico.eu/article/zelenskyy-macron-asked-ukraine-concession-help-putin-save-face/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-draghi-calls-urgent-ceasefire-ukraine-2022-05-19/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...erating-frances-macron-over-putin-2022-04-04/


<<"One should not negotiate with criminals, one should fight them...Nobody negotiated with Hitler. Would you negotiate with Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot?" he added.>>
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Walrus said:
I remember (much) earlier in this thread advocating for this kind of hard line approach, only to be accused of being a warmonger by various on here. It remains the case though - Putin and Russia only respect strength. Talk of concessions and ceasefires - hell, pretty much any kind of talk - will be seen as weakness.

Next time Lavrov or whoever starts talking about nukes, they should be reminded that other countries also have nukes, and that unlike Russia, their arsenals are probably full maintained and ready to go.
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NicolaSacco said:
The problem is, an immediate ceasefire would stop civilian deaths in the short term, and I fully understand how important that is. No ceasefire inevitably means more innocent women and children will die.

However there are longer term factors here. A significant degradation of the Russian army means they won’t be able to do this again any time soon. And regardless of the spin coming out of Russia there are going to be lots of high up people in the army and military who will remember this like the US remembers Vietnam. A significant and overt defeat of Russia could ensure that we have a generation of relative peace in Eastern Europe, by which time European reliance on Russian fossil fuels will be taken out of the equation.
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The US Secretary of Defense called for a ceasefire just last week as well. Just to give some context before it's all exclusively on the usual suspects again (plus Italy this time).

(As @NotThatSoph has been pointing out before.)
 
Cheimoon said:
The US Secretary of Defense called for a ceasefire just last week as well. Just to give some context before it's all exclusively on the usual suspects again (plus Italy this time).

(As @NotThatSoph has been pointing out before.)
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I think there are valid criticisms of Germany for their lack of support relative to their wealth and the rest of the west’s contributions, but I don’t particularly think calling for a ceasefire should be included in that criticism.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I think there are valid criticisms of Germany for their lack of support relative to their wealth and the rest of the west’s contributions, but I don’t particularly think calling for a ceasefire should be included in that criticism.
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The former, definitely. Although it could be said that Germany had to come from very far given their general appeasement policy towards Russia since the 60s or so. You could therefore say that they've changed their thinking more than anyone else during this war - even if they're still behind and have further steps to take.

For the ceasefire, I have no idea; just that, if the proposal is criticized, that should include the US as well, not just the countries posters don't like.
 
frostbite said:
Scholz, Macron, Draghi.

"These calls are idiotic and damaging..."



https://www.politico.eu/article/zelenskyy-macron-asked-ukraine-concession-help-putin-save-face/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-draghi-calls-urgent-ceasefire-ukraine-2022-05-19/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...erating-frances-macron-over-putin-2022-04-04/


<<"One should not negotiate with criminals, one should fight them...Nobody negotiated with Hitler. Would you negotiate with Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot?" he added.>>
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Ok, so this is why I asked.

You didn't just talk about ceasefires, you were talking about ceasefires and land consessions. Scholz and Draghi are not talking about land, while Macron as far as I know denies it as well.

If you meant to just talk about ceasefires, but then added stuff about land for some added effect, then your comment wouldn't make any sense because not only are you criticising these politicians, you contrast their behaviour with those from the UK and US. You know full well, however, than we can find ceasefire talk from here as well.
 
NotThatSoph said:
Ok, so this is why I asked.

You didn't just talk about ceasefires, you were talking about ceasefires and land consessions. Scholz and Draghi are not talking about land, while Macron as far as I know denies it as well.

If you meant to just talk about ceasefires, but then added stuff about land for some added effect, then your comment wouldn't make any sense because not only are you criticising these politicians, you contrast their behaviour with those from the UK and US. You know full well, however, than we can find ceasefire talk from here as well.
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Ceasefire at this point is the same thing as land concession. Do you think that Russians will just leave?
 
NotThatSoph said:
Alright, then you should amend your comment and condemn the Americans.
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The Americans just voted for $40 billion for Ukraine. I will wait for the EU to vote for $40 billion for Ukraine, and then I will criticize the US for doing too little to help the Ukrainians.
 
frostbite said:
The Americans just voted for $40 billion for Ukraine. I will wait for the EU to vote for $40 billion for Ukraine, and then I will criticize the US for doing too little to help the Ukrainians.
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And called for a ceasefire.
 
frostbite said:
Scholz, Macron, Draghi.

"These calls are idiotic and damaging..."



https://www.politico.eu/article/zelenskyy-macron-asked-ukraine-concession-help-putin-save-face/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-draghi-calls-urgent-ceasefire-ukraine-2022-05-19/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...erating-frances-macron-over-putin-2022-04-04/


<<"One should not negotiate with criminals, one should fight them...Nobody negotiated with Hitler. Would you negotiate with Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot?" he added.>>
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Kasparov has been spot on about Putin from the beginning. Dictators only understand the language of power and coercion, and frequently use diplomacy as a means to flog the facade they are interested in negotiating, while continuing to agitate for war behind the scenes (Putin in particular, is a master of this). I don't blame some of the European leaders for taking weak positions on this since they each have their own constituents, many of which are delusional peace at all costs types who favor appeasement over any conflict, which undermines their leaders from taking tougher positions.
 
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Raoul said:
Kasperov has been spot on about Putin since the beginning. Dictators only understand the language of power and coersion, and frequently use diplomacy as a means to flog the facade they are interested in negotiating, while continuing to agitate for war behind the scenes (Putin in particular, is a master of this). I don't blame some of the European leaders for taking weak positions on this since they each have their own constituents, many of which are delusional peace at all costs types who favor appeasement over any conflict, which undermines their leaders from taking tougher positions.
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Yes, you are right. However, there is a difference between talking and doing. The main problem is not that Germany is speaking softly, the problem is that they are doing too little AND they are speaking too softly.

They could be doing the classic "speak softly and carry a big stick". Unfortunately, Scholz's version is "speak softly and be a useless moron".

(Edit: By the way, I happened to read Kasparov's book last year. He published the book in 2015 and he practically predicted everything we see today. Winter is coming. )
 
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frostbite said:
Perhaps you missed the big stick part. But I am sure the Russians didn't.
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Maybe. This big stick you're talking about, is that what makes it acceptable for the Americans to "wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine as if it’s their choice", while it's not acceptable that Germans, French or Italians do it?
 
From the BBC:

"Russian-installed mayor in intensive care after blast - reports

An update now on Andriy Shevchyk, the man installed by Russia as the mayor of occupied Enerhodar.

Shevchyk is now in intensive care after being injured in an explosion, Russia's state-run Ria Novosti news agency reports.

No further details were available.

Earlier we reported that Shevchyk and his bodyguards were hurt in what appeared to be a "precise and targeted attack", according to the city's elected mayor - who was ousted from power by the Russians."
 
frostbite said:
Yes, you are right. However, there is a difference between talking and doing. The main problem is not that Germany is speaking softly, the problem is that they are doing too little AND they are speaking too softly.

They could be doing the classic "speak softly and carry a big stick". Unfortunately, Scholz's version is "speak softly and be a useless moron".
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I think German leaders are still, to a degree, living with the ghosts of past militarism (much as the Japanese are), which is affecting their behavior in crises of the present. The Germans are also now paying the price for their lopsided over-reliance on Putin for energy, which can't be dismissed as a factor.
 
NotThatSoph said:
Maybe. This big stick you're talking about, is that what makes it acceptable for the Americans to "wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine as if it’s their choice", while it's not acceptable that Germans, French or Italians do it?
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This is getting boring. The US defense secretary told the Russian defense secretary about cease fire (after they kill Putin, haha). It wasn't Biden. There is a difference. If you can't see it, I can't help, sorry.
 
frostbite said:
This is getting boring. The US defense secretary told the Russian defense secretary about cease fire (after they kill Putin, haha). It wasn't Biden. There is a difference. If you can't see it, I can't help, sorry.
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Ok, then we have finally cleared things up. It is totally fine to "wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine" as long as those doing it aren't heads of state. If for instance Christine Lambrecht, the German minister of defence, was to call for a ceasefire, then that would be ok, correct?
 
Raoul said:
I think German leaders are still, to a degree, living with the ghosts of past militarism (much as the Japanese are), which is affecting their behavior in crises of the present. The Germans are also now paying the price for their lopsided over-reliance on Putin for energy, which can't be dismissed as a factor.
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I have the suspicion that it runs much deeper than that. A previous Prime Minister holds a lot of positions in Russian companies. I doubt that he is the only politician who has personal financial gains from Russia. It is hard to believe that they converted a PM but not any lower standing politicians. (For example, GW Bush being on the board of Exxon is less likely than some other ex-politician being on the board of Exxon.) And even the politicians who are not being paid directly, may have stocks in Russian companies because they knew about the other politicians who are directly involved, so they thought it was a good investment. Politicians in the same party are close to each other and talk to each other. All these politicians do not want to lose their money, they prefer the war to end and the situation to return to normalcy as soon as possible. And then you have all the rich donors who also have personal gains in Russia.

For me, this explains why the Greens (doves) in Germany want to help Ukraine, most ordinary Germans agree, but SPD is not doing much. Of course, nobody will accuse SPD in public like this, but at this point I cannot find a more logical explanation. Am I wrong?

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-recasts-germany-green-party-russia/
 
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NotThatSoph said:
Ok, then we have finally cleared things up. It is totally fine to "wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine" as long as those doing it aren't heads of state. If for instance Christine Lambrecht, the German minister of defence, was to call for a ceasefire, then that would be ok, correct?
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Okay, you convinced me. (Imagine I am screaming here: )

Americans should be doing MORE. Send the F-35s please!
 
frostbite said:
Okay, you convinced me. (Imagine I am screaming here: )

Americans should be doing MORE. Send the F-35s please!
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I don’t think it should be taken the way you are taking it. Nobody has ever said anything about giving up territory. Zelenskyy is saying similar things to what Italy Getmany and France have been pushing. He also wants a ceasefire as a first step. I don’t know if he is saying this is Ukraine’s official position now but at least he himself seems to be pushing this line. And at the end he has the final word (on behalf of Ukrainians)

 
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