The Butterfly Effect
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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I want you to be right but can you explain why you’re so sure? Ukraine has largely struggled to retake territory other than in situations where the Russians themselves have withdrawn.
I think there's a growing sentiment the Ukrainians are on the cusp of turning the tables on the Russians on all fronts, which means Moscow will eventually run out of manpower and weapons at a time when the Ukrainian side not only have the morale and momentum, but are also getting armed to the gills with sophisticated NATO weapons that are more advanced than anything the Russians have available to mitigate them. So, at some point fairly soon, we are likely to see a tipping point moment where the Russians collapse and the Ukrainians quickly retake all lost territory and perhaps even more. This is of course assuming Putin doesn't use WMDs or similar weapons, which doesn't appear likely at the moment.
The emergence of drones has been a game changer in recent years. They will have to rewrite counterinsurgency war-fighting doctrine to incorporate drones into future strategies now.
Ouch.
I really hope you’re right but I wouldn’t say I’m confident of that just yet. Not least because it’s far harder to dislodge an established forced dug in around a city than it is to defend the same city from attack.
I agree, although in this case the Ukrainians have the advantage of the population of these cities being on their side and doing their bit to subvert the Russians from within. The real test will be how the Ukrainians fare in retaking areas like Kherson, Melitopol, and the like, since the Russians seem to be much better organized using Crimea as a staging point in the south than they were in using Belgorod in the east or Belarus in the north. If the Ukrainians manage to retake southern areas with little resistance then that would put Crimea back in play imo.
ZZ top band.
Totally agree and as I say I hope you’re right. The idea of Crimea being somehow in play is testament to how well Ukraine is fighting- I wouldn’t have predicted that in a million years. To me, Kherson and Melitoplol are more likely, but even if it’s just one or both of those two then that would be an absolutely huge victory given the relative strengths (on paper at least) of the two armies.
Via an offshoot from the #Ukraine hashtag on Twitter
Have you read the sequel "Joint out of Time"? It's about the most alien high ever.
More so, they already have a child together. So he does have a grandchild with Zelensky's surname.
If we believe the investigation, of course, but it seems legit.
I don't see Ukraine taking back Crimea whatever happens. It's hugely important to Russia in political terms (even the jailed opposition leader Navalny is not in favour of giving up Crimea), which means they would throw everything they have in its defence, even if it meant stripping all their troops out Kaliningrad and elsewhere.
Also it would be much harder to take Crimea without proper aviation.
The Russians may not have an option in the matter if the country is crumbling domestically and their forces are depleted. It would obviously only happen if Putin was sufficiently weakened from within where he doesn't have the resources to defend Crimea. Its also worth noting that the forces in the south are from Crimea, so if Ukraine takes them out, there really aren't enough Russian forces in Crimea left to defend against a takeover.
Putin (or his successor) would formally declare war and go for full military call-up if needed rather than give up Crimea. It isn't going back to Ukraine ever IMO.
Ever is a long time. We may see the break up of Russia at the end of a failed war, where Crimea may rejoin Ukraine.
Apparently located at the north west edge of Izyum:
Quality pics. Whatever happens to this guy, I'm sure they will be shared widely.
Ukrainian flag flying at the Kherson railway station
It is not just a matter of bodies, the main thing is equipment. If the war keeps going for a year or two, and if the Ukrainian army keeps modernizing, and if they still have the desire to keep fighting, and if they get F-16 or MQ-9 drones (yes, that's a lot of ifs!), then I think they can retake Crimea, or make it so expensive for Russia that they give it up. The difference with modern NATO equipment is that it's very precise, they will be able to eliminate Russian tanks and artillery without having to resort to extensive bombing like the Soviets.And it will get harder and harder for Russia to replace that equipment.
OK, but my understanding is that no Russian leader can (or could) hope to survive if they lose Crimea. It's an absolute red-line. This makes it incredibly hard for Ukraine to take to back.
I think people underestimate the importance of geography. How is Ukraine supposed to retake Crimea without aviation & fleet when its only connected to the continent by a narrow strip of land.
Not to mention that Crimea was never really Ukrainian from a cultural and historical perspective — unlike Donbas regions that were close to Russia culturally & linguistically but were still Ukrainian by any relevant metric.
I’m not a supporter of the annexation by the way & I would’ve preferred for Crimea to remain a Ukrainian territory even without knowing the consequences of the whole 2014 conflict.
Not to mention that Crimea was never really Ukrainian from a cultural and historical perspective — unlike Donbas regions that were close to Russia culturally & linguistically but were still Ukrainian by any relevant metric.
I’m not a supporter of the annexation by the way & I would’ve preferred for Crimea to remain a Ukrainian territory even without knowing the consequences of the whole 2014 conflict.
I have little doubt that Crimea will be part of Ukraine again within next 3 years maximum. Once EU stop import of Russian gas, economy of the agressor will collapse. Chief rushist made a huge mistake and he will pay a colossal price to pay.
Where has that come from?
Unless the Crimean population actively desires to return under Ukrainian control, the region is gone for Ukraine. They'd lose international goodwill and spur new local resistance movements in Crimea that will drain on Ukraine's military, if Ukraine occupies Crimea.
If he’s talking about political survival and not the literal one it’s hard to argue with this. The only way Russians would gave up Crimea would be if the entire population will somehow adapt the decolonization narrative and it’s, well, impossible if we’re talking about short-term future and highly unlikely if we’re talking about mid-term.
Khrushchev is still remembered, first and foremost, not as a guy who had oversaw the process of destalinisation but as a guy who gave Crimea away.
If we’re talking about, say, 10-15 years when Russia collapses under the weight of sanctions & internal problems, while Ukraine thrives as an EU state whose economy is supported my the Marshall’s plan 2.0, the Crimean population may change their stance. But it won’t happen in a few years.
An absolute majority of tatars in Crimea are absolutely pissed off with Putin's regime and feel much worse after becoming a part of Russia. Taking into account the way the war is going, I fully expect Crimea to become part of Ukraine again.
Ya but Crimea is connected by even less to Russian land. It would be hard for Russia to keep Crimea supplied if 1) the "land bridge" to Crimea is cutoff, which is a possibility over the next several months and 2) UKR receives the numerous anti-ship and long-range fire weapons systems from the West that they likely are to get. Russia got Crimea in the first place because UKR was under-prepared but it will be harder to hold on to the longer the war drags on.
Vlad Vexler, who was born in Russia, is very well-connected there and knows a lot about it. I find him to be the most convincing commentator I've heard of when it comes to Russia, its people, history and political structure.