cnut being a cnut again. Rogo-ruscist-zin.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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cnut being a cnut again. Rogo-ruscist-zin.
And this is exactly why a general mobilization is unlikely, and if it happens would be extremely stupid. What you describe is almost like 1917, when general mobilisation made it possible to overthrow the Tsar.
The big problem in Russia is that the people have no prior experience of democracy whatsoever. Throughout its history Russia has always been ruled by an autocratic dictator of one kind or another, sustained by the myth that only a strong leader can hold the country together and fend off invaders. And many Russians today have been led to equate democracy with chaos.
It would take decades to change this mentality ,even if a liberal, pro-Western government took power, which is not likely. The best we can probably hope for right now is that Putin is replaced by someone who is a bit less autocratic, a bit less paranoid, and a bit more inclined to let Ukraine go its own way.
Yes, what you are saying is true. However, people in Ukraine did not have any experience in democracy, either. And many protesters died during the Euromaidan. I was expecting to see something similar in Moscow, a Russian Euromaidan. But nothing like that ever happened. Not even close. (Moscow is a European city in many aspects, and their citizens are educated and have contact with the West. )
Yawn. We get it, you have nukes, same applies the other way round.
Yes and they would get it back in a similar amount of time…MAD.
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Yes, but Ukraine is much further geographically west than Russia (closer to the rest of Europe, and so more part of western culture) and doesn't span 11 different time zones. This is also why even Byelorussia is far more likely to see another uprising than Russia.
I disagree. The best possible scenario would be a collapse of the Russian Federation and a breakup into smaller states that aren't a threat on their own and where some at least might have a chance to become democracies. A bit like what happened when the SU collapsed and the Baltic States oriented themselves towards the West.
I didn't say "the best possible scenario", I said the best we can probably hope for (i.e. being more realistic).Of course you're scenario would be better.
Then we have to agree to disagree, as I think my scenario is more realistic. I just don't see a better (from our point of view) potential successor to Putin on the horizon.
I'm not saying that I do either, because I've no idea who would likely take over if Putin took a bullet to the back of his head. But I do think that someone taking over is more likely - more realistic - than is the notion of a breakup of Russia into separate nations, although I'd like to see that happen.
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I understand what you are saying but I wasn't talking about the whole of Russia. I was talking about Moscow only. It has a population of over 12 million people and used to have more Western stores than Kiev. A revolt in Moscow does not depend on what people in Vladivostok think.
Not good enough of a message to send considering that Pooh (Xi) already made his bed with Putin. For Biden to stand next to Zelensky would be a perfect response to all anti-democratic forces out there. And besides, how many times did we have POTUS making an unannounced trip to Iraq or Afghanistan during an ongoing war before?
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Even if someone replaces Putin, Ukraine is an existential threat for Russia and they will still engage in this kind of conflict over it
Rogozin the drunken cuntster
Maybe a successor would still see it that way, but maybe not, and that's the hope.
Or even if they do still see it that way, they might still recognise a more immediate need to halt the ongoing destruction of Russia's ground forces by withdrawing them back to the pre-February 24th borders, a withdrawal they can blame on Putin's gross blunders. Then we might at least have an end to most of the fighting, barring sporadic shelling in both directions. After which, who knows what might develop from there.
I just can't see any Russian leadership accepting Ukraine leaving their sphere of influence for the EU/Nato
Putin may have made huge blunders during the war but the reasons for doing so still make geopolitical strategic sense
More cracks showing on Russian TV:
They don't, for the simple reason that there is no existential threat to Russia from NATO and the West and never has been. The only existential threat that exists is to the survival of Putin. Moreover, it's hardly geopolitically sensible to see your economy wrecked by sanctions, your international reputation dragged through the mud, your brightest and best fleeing the country, and your conventional forces suffering huge losses that will take many years to replace, if indeed they ever can be.
Amazed somebody spoke the obvious.
Where do you base this? Ukraine is no threat to Russia, existential or not. As far as I know, most ordinary Russians do not have any problem with Ukraine as a member of EU and NATO.
it may be semantics, but I think of it more as an extension then an expansion.
Let’s assume it is. Then what? In what world do you see the NATO alliance attacking Russia in an offensive war?
I'm not sure. I guess not as otherwise you wouldn't have destroyed the country like you did
Plus the principle of unanimity in decision-making often gets ignored.
I can sort of understand that but I guess it highlights how ideologically bankrupt Russia is since the collapse of Soviet communism, that they have nothing that they can offer that can appeal against a more Western facing Ukraine making their own independent choice.
Also… irony is dead here regarding regime change. Russia literally sent in units to kill Zalensky in the opening stage of the war.
Russia like everyone else know NATO isn't going to invade if for no other reason than to avoid nuclear war. Russia don't want NATO expansion because they dream of recreating the USSR and not because they think NATO will invade.
Why would Ukraine want to invade Russia? What possible motivation is there?
It is laughable. Nobody apart from Putin wants war.
Bingo
I haven't listened bit she looks like a sweetie tbf, I think you all get a pass it's fine
But you also just said yourself that you don’t think NATO would invade Russia. You’re playing both sides of the argument here.
Their massive nuclear arsenal will ensure that won’t happen again.
No, because as I've already said, no one thinks that NATO would even remotely consider invading a nuclear-armed Russia.
If Russia has the right, in your eyes, to invade Ukraine because it's on the Russian border and Russia doesn't like Ukraine's west-ward leanings, then presumably you also think that Finland has the right to invade Russia ... because it too has a border with Russia and doesn't like Russia..
feck the Monroe doctrine - I'm not here to defend some 19th century BS. There are zero excuses for Russia's actions in Ukraine.
Just as they will never accept any former Eastern Bloc countries leaving their sphere of influence?
Yes I don't think Nato countries would invade Russia because its insane. But I understand the Russian leadership taking actions against that prospect.
Nato can't say they are just a defensive alliance when they have waged offensive wars before
stop playing the got ya card