Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Knocked out by MK Dons in the 2nd round.
So, no games to even play those kids in. What was your point again?
To try and get this back on topic: a post like @DT12's does actually make me wonder what the sanctions will accomplish for Ukraine right now. Long-term, they may well be crippling. But if Russia is managing to get its products in without too much extra cost and trouble, and they can continue to export and get their main sources of foreign income as well - then what's being achieved here in the short term?There are sanctions?!
So, no games to even play those kids in. What was your point again?
To try and get this back on topic: a post like @DT12's does actually make me wonder what the sanctions will accomplish for Ukraine right now. Long-term, they may well be crippling. But if Russia is managing to get its products in without too much extra cost and trouble, and they can continue to export and get their main sources of foreign income as well - then what's being achieved here in the short term?
I expected the sanctions would take a while to 'bite', especially as Russia have a lot of surplus cash and can (as the poster said) do all sorts of short-term currency manipulation to shore up the economy. We really need to put more pressure on India and China (I only expect India to be persuaded at best).
So, no games to even play those kids in. What was your point again?
To try and get this back on topic: a post like @DT12's does actually make me wonder what the sanctions will accomplish for Ukraine right now. Long-term, they may well be crippling. But if Russia is managing to get its products in without too much extra cost and trouble, and they can continue to export and get their main sources of foreign income as well - then what's being achieved here in the short term?
Mid to long term consequences can create short pressure, too. And if for example the end game of the west is a palace coup, then the narrative "Putin has wrecked our ecnomy for years to come and for what?" will be a powerful one.
Just ridiculous. I prefer it to be a G19 (or even a G18) than seeing little bald feck at the meeting. And doesn't Xi have to deal with the failure of his zero-COVID policy at home rather than influencing the G20 to let Putin in?
For the record, the next country rich enough to be integrated in the G20 and that is not represented by the European Union if Russia has to be replaced is... Taiwan (21st ranked in the world for nominal GDP).
I blame the forum for never voting me most helpful mod/admin.
Only if Russians start feeling it though. Abstract talk in the west about Russia's economy being wrecked in the longer term won't impress Russians that don't see those discussions, are getting paid, and see full shelves in the shops. But...
...maybe that's the better next step. Rather than trying to close loopholes, get at Russia's enablers. But while India might turn around with the right promises and support, I am not sure what the EU and US can do to pressure China. If anything, China might dig in as soon as there is any more public pressure.
That might be getting in the domain of the geopolitics thread, but I think it's an interesting point directly for the war itself. So much was made of those sanctions, and people on here were all expecting a full implosion of the Russian economy. Yet what's it actually doing to affect the war itself and improve Ukraine's short-term outlook? The sanctions might be a bit of a dud in that sense?
I certainly never voted for you. Yes, because I wasn't a member yet.
precisely.A perfect example of why sanctions take a long time to have an effect.
You're only looking at the common people though. But that's just one pressure point. If we assume that the consequences will eventually come, then that puts the Russian army on a bit of a clock to make gains before that happens and that could maybe explain why they didn't take more time to reorganize after their initial setback.
That same logic could also bolster the morale of Ukrainian defenders, give them hope that Russia will have to scale back of they hold out long enough.
But also an example of why sanctions work.
Yeah, I suppose in the upper echelons, people would see what's happening and where that's heading - and might be more interested in trying to get Putin out of power. Still, those people are overall very selfish I would think. If they don't suffer themselves and the people aren't complaining, it would be uncommonly altruistic of them to start risking their own neck to avoid long-term consequences.
"In fact, it has donated at least 25% of its 808-strong total tank arsenal."
This is great, thank you Poland!
I think they should give their 100% of their tank arsenal to Ukraine, and the rest of the West should go to Poland and get ready to protect them. The US has already sent parts of the 82 Airborne Division. There is also an Aegis ashore installation in Poland (and another one in Romania). And obviously Poland is protected by the US Air Force.
In an ideal world I would like the US to deploy even more Army and Air Force units to Poland and the Baltics. But I understand that in the current configuration it is a bit of a strain on the troops that are nominally based in the continental US, as they are away from their homes and families for the periods of deployment.
I wouldn't lay too much store in what the poster said about the effect of sanctions. Some of it was based on what he said about just one company (his wife's), which prints cigarette packets. Many companies will rely on much more sophisticated components that were previously imported from the West, and no amount of smuggling is going to replace all the missing stuff.
Also, many of the companies that have pulled out of Russia are temporarily continuing to pay their Russian staff, but this won't continue for much longer. For this and other reasons, unemployment in Russia is going to rise steeply. And the Russian stock market is down by around one-third since Feb. 16th - and is still only open on a highly restricted, artificial basis.
But more importantly, it's a long-term game, so whilst Russia is benefitting now from higher gas/oil/coal prices, this won't continue forever because the EU is now slowly moving away from the purchase of these commodities from Russia, so eventually reduced demand will feed through into lower prices.
Seems a long time ago that we were watching Russian helicopters flying towards Kyiv on the 24th of February. It even felt like Ukraine was going to collapse right then right away.
I have a relative that was part of that Division; he only just retired. Let’s hope they don’t have to get too involved.
Some of this is because they are getting more sophisticated Challenger II tanks from the UK as replacements.
Perfect opportunity to put a bullet in the back of his head.
Just wait a month. It's already very visible. The main issue is that Putin's biggest electorate are people who are already on the verge of poverty so the difference for them won't be as drastic, they've already in a completely disastrous state.
But yeah, mid-term, not short-term.
Interview in The Guardian with Malcolm Nance about his volunteering to fight for Ukraine:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-msnbc-pundit-ukraine-soldier-michael-harriot
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-msnbc-pundit-ukraine-soldier-michael-harriot
I hope you are staying safe and well.
Ouch.
Maybe not be on your smartphone in a war zone, lest you trigger an antipersonnel mine.
The Ghost of Kyiv was real! Unfortunately he died
What a final two months he had. Bravo, brother. RIP.
The Ghost of Kyiv was real! Unfortunately he died
Yeah, I thought as much given how the news about him just vanished.
There's no way he shot down 40 Russian aircraft, that's just propaganda.
There is a lot of that on both sides, just a part of war.
Thanks harms. Yeah, it's just one perspective, from a metropole; I suppose the effects vary not only based on your needs and means, but also where you live. It sounds positive what you're saying - well, and sad of course...
Hope you're alright and you & yours are staying safe!
Thatsashame.gif
I would have to change my undies if we did this