And the NYT reported weeks ago that the US even went to China and asked them for help to convince Russia to cancel the invasion plans.
(Or something to that extent)
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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(Or something to that extent)
May I present some news from Germany?
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutsch...elembargo-gegen-Russland-fuer-handhabbar.html
Short summary: Germany imported 35% of its oil from Russia when the war started, we are now down to 12%. These 12% are caused by the refinery in Schwedt (close to the Polish border), that is connected to the Druzhba-pipeline and owned by Russian company Rosneft (so it doesn't really have interest in getting rid of Russian oil as such). There are discussions ongoing how to deal with this situations, but the key takeway in the title is: Habeck (who is our economy minister) believes an embargo for Russian oil is possible now.
Those shenanigans in Transnistria could be an attempt to draw Ukrainian forces out of Odessa?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/26/moldova-transnistria-explosions-russia/
May I present some news from Germany?
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutsch...elembargo-gegen-Russland-fuer-handhabbar.html
Short summary: Germany imported 35% of its oil from Russia when the war started, we are now down to 12%. These 12% are caused by the refinery in Schwedt (close to the Polish border), that is connected to the Druzhba-pipeline and owned by Russian company Rosneft (so it doesn't really have interest in getting rid of Russian oil as such). There are discussions ongoing how to deal with this situations, but the key takeway in the title is: Habeck (who is our economy minister) believes an embargo for Russian oil is possible now.
Looking good, I take it you saw this?:
It's the same news, both refer to Habeck's press conference today.
But your post clarifies nicely how the Druzhba pipeline could be filled with oil once Russian oil isn't pumped through it anymore.
Right, i see which refinary he is talking about. I take it that Rosneft has no say on what flows through the pipeline in Polish territory from Gdansk.
Does this mean Russia have made a deal with someone else? Or are they just gonna hoard gas/temporarily stop production?
Probably just getting ahead of things so they can pretend its their decision.
I decided to waste some time by looking into the supposed funding of the Russian war machine. I did it by looking at imports of "Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products" according to the United Nations COMTRADE database, adjusted for population sourced from a simple Google search, meaning it's per capita. The results are normalised, with the Big Bad Germany as 1. Countries included are EU members, EFTA members (excluding Lichtenstein because of lack of data), and a few other countries that are relevant either because of proximity or as world players. (Edit: I did not include countries friendly to Russia, like Belarus, Serbia, China or India. Turkey is borderline, I guess.)
What about gas? Or is that included in distillation products?
Mineral fuels.
The main point that we are discussing is not the apathy (secondary point). The main point is that he claimed zelensky insulted germans(among them him) when he didnt invite Steinmeier. And i am of tge opinion that this claim is more insulting for ukrainians as Germany had been dragging its feet to protect "just" the economy when ukraine is fighting fotlr suvival.
Then it branched out
What a waste of time. Guterres is just a deluded idiot if he even thought he'd get something from Putin now, and that's not saying what kind of message that is sent from the UN.
All of them who visit him only legitimize him and wind up getting lied to. Completely pointless imo.
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I don't know. When this eventually does end it will start by someone meeting with him. (And I'll be the first to admit that that's difficult to accept).
The tweet above is unavailable for me.
The tweet above is unavailable for me.
I think it will only end when Putin is either dead or forced to step down by his fellow gangsters.
Either of those would probably be preferable at this point (especially the former) but I have no clue how likely either really are. But yes, those are reasonable alternatives.
What I mean is that I'm now convinced that Putin is not remotely interested in peace or a deal, but will simply continue on and on, escalating and escalating until he literally runs out of military personnel that are either willing to fight or can be forced to fight.
To put it another way, I now think he's a man who is totally lost in delusions of grandeur and sees himself in historic terms as the new Tsar who will restore "Greater Russia".
Regarding that there is a great twitter thread here explaining the role of Belarus in this "Greater Russia" and how much power Lukashenko actually has over Putin:
Could Putin be so mad that his mobilization orders can extend to women, teenagers and the disabled as well? I hope we will never go into such insanity.
The last time a Russian Tsar attempted at showing strength in a war, it ended very badly twice for him and 12 years apart. While Putin has not met his own Tsushima (or his Waterloo if that's on land) yet, I say that is likely to happen in the next major battle if Ukraine plays their own chess pieces well and then pick the next main Russian force apart.
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More evidence of something wrong with Putin's health: watch his legs in this video and how they keep twitching.
I am not as good at pretending to be a body language expert online as I am at acting like a military historian, but his hand movements still look weird here and maybe even in the vid above of him walking up to the titanic table. Always clutching at the notebook or the table.
The BBC reports:
"UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will announce on Wednesday that Britain and other Western powers should give warplanes to Ukraine as part of their long-term military support.
In a speech in London, she’ll say the West should be ready to give the country its backing “for the long haul”.
Ukraine has repeatedly asked for combat aircraft, particularly Soviet-era fighters with which their pilots are familiar. Western allies have been reluctant to go that far for fear of provoking Russia.
But as Nato members step up their support for Ukraine with longer range weapons, Truss will say they should go even further.
The fate of Ukraine, she’ll say, “remains in the balance”. Western powers should be ready to support Ukraine “for the long haul”, digging deep in their inventories to give the country heavy weapons, tanks and, yes, airplanes ..."
"UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will announce on Wednesday that Britain and other Western powers should give warplanes to Ukraine as part of their long-term military support.
In a speech in London, she’ll say the West should be ready to give the country its backing “for the long haul”.
Ukraine has repeatedly asked for combat aircraft, particularly Soviet-era fighters with which their pilots are familiar. Western allies have been reluctant to go that far for fear of provoking Russia.
But as Nato members step up their support for Ukraine with longer range weapons, Truss will say they should go even further.
The fate of Ukraine, she’ll say, “remains in the balance”. Western powers should be ready to support Ukraine “for the long haul”, digging deep in their inventories to give the country heavy weapons, tanks and, yes, airplanes ..."
I reckon the Moldovans should drive up to the border with Romania and unload a few magazines into the ground on the Romanian side (after telling Romania of their cunning plan) and declare war on Romania. Obviously this would necessitate activation of Article V, and NATO could respond by "invading" Moldova and occupying it.
Sounds like another successful drone attack behind enemy lines.
These are the EU’s biggest importers of Russian gas in 2021, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA).
Germany: 1.70 trillion cubic feet
Italy: 0.92 trillion cubic feet
France: 0.62 trillion cubic feet
Poland: 0.37 trillion cubic feet
These are the EU’s biggest importers of Russian gas in 2020, measured by overall percentage of Russian gas exports, the EIA reported.
Germany: 16 percent
Italy: 12 percent
France: 8 percent
Netherlands: 5 percent
Austria: 5 percent
Poland: 4 percent
Hungary: 3 percent
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibr...ntries-are-the-most-dependent-on-russian-gas/
If Germany, Italy, France, NL, Austria, Poland stop importing gas from Russia, then Russia loses 50% of their gas exports!!!
That's an economic catastrophe for Russia.
Increased nuclear power production can provide energy to help reduce gas demands.
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Might be, but the last attack on Belgorod was executed by attack helicopters
I’m getting pretty fed up of this now. I am fully cognisant of the risks and potential global impact of escalating this, but to my mind the time has come to enforce our way of life. Every minute this goes on, the more we embolden Russia and the more we give away and erode that ethos. Ukraine might not be in NATO but this is now beyond that fact. History has told us that people like Putin don’t settle for a bit. The more we don’t do enough, the more he feels he can do. It’s time to take another step in support in my view, and that’s at least more significant equipment provision and a no fly zone. As I said I’m fully aware of what that means, but it’s time.
A humiliated Putin lashing out is also a danger though. I don’t envy the decision makers in the West right now. The other thing is, it’s quite possible that the damage being done to the Russian army and economy is exactly what is stopping Putin going further. They don’t have the manpower or weapons to fight elsewhere. I do think that on the face of it Nato could be doing more but we have to be really careful not to make a misjudgement about how Russia might respond if we did.
Is it just me, or is the concept of a no fly zone just weird? You have to fight the enemy air force and the air defence of their army and potentially navy (effectively destroying it) to ensure that your fighter aircrafts can operate to enforce the no fly zone.
I just don't get it, doesn't it effectively mean "we fully participate in the war, but we just send our air force"?
Gazprom apparently stopped the supply of gas to Poland yesterday because of the refusal to pay in rubles.
The difference probably is that the dismantling of the SAM sites / ships would happen only after the first firing from such a site, not preemtively.
This post makes a lot more sense a week after the invasion. I wouldn't really describe the current course of the war as "emboldening Russia". Kyiv is not going to fall, and Ukraine is not going to be conquered. Geopolitically, Russia is a massive loser of this war. Obviously Ukraine is too (and most of all Ukrainain civilians).