Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Where is he getting his numbers from about the size of the 35th CAA?
Fires pretty deep in Russia at several fuel depots. 
Fires pretty deep in Russia at several fuel depots.
Must be the work of those special special forces SAS folk - supposedly disguised as medics according to the Russians and teaching the Ukrainians the dark arts of sabotage.
This is probably just the last of demonstration runs, to show the Ukrainians what's possible, before their proteges are unleashed far and wide, fanning out across Russia across the steppes and beyond. When we see fires in Vladivostok, then we'll know.
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From 5 days ago:
I do wonder if Russia is setting off a few things to try to make the case for a declared war more palatable.
Not saying that can’t be the case, but why would you do a false flag operation on war-critical infrastructure/industry? You’d think they would rather blow up some civilians and blame it on a misguided Ukrainian missile.
The chemical plant fire east of Moscow also would not fit in that context, though who knows which if any are just coincidences. Normally once you get to 3 incidents it’s no longer a coincidence.
edit: relevant…
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Putin has done these before (the apartment bombings spring to mind), so there is the precedent. He could easily use something like this as a pretext to justify use of a WMD, if he gets desperate enough.
Which were civilian targets. He’s already run out of fuel once on the way to Kyiv.
Wonder what would happen if the russians are pushed out of ukrainian territory but continue to use long range missiles on civilian targets.
Ukraine are getting their comms spot on if everyone still thinks it is plausible that these are Russian false flag operations.
They’ve been doing it for eight years already. The only difference now is that they are using their longer range missiles and the world has started watching.
But does Germany support Ukraine now?
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61185469
We should have supported Ukraine sooner - Germany
The German vice-chancellor says it was a mistake that his country didn't support Ukraine militarily much earlier.
In an interview with German public service broadcaster Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen, Robert Habeck says the support should have started years ago.
“We certainly should have supported Ukraine militarily much earlier, and I'm not just talking about days or weeks, but years," he says.
The previous administration of Angela Merkel was criticised for its ties with Russia, in particular its dependence on Russian energy.
Habeck says Germany is now helping to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons, after the government pledged to boost defence spending to meet Nato's target of 2% of GDP. It has also suspended the Nord Stream Two gas pipeline from Russia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61185469
We should have supported Ukraine sooner - Germany
The German vice-chancellor says it was a mistake that his country didn't support Ukraine militarily much earlier.
In an interview with German public service broadcaster Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen, Robert Habeck says the support should have started years ago.
“We certainly should have supported Ukraine militarily much earlier, and I'm not just talking about days or weeks, but years," he says.
The previous administration of Angela Merkel was criticised for its ties with Russia, in particular its dependence on Russian energy.
Habeck says Germany is now helping to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons, after the government pledged to boost defence spending to meet Nato's target of 2% of GDP. It has also suspended the Nord Stream Two gas pipeline from Russia.
Literally no country spent more on aid to Ukraine in the past 8 years.
(OECD Workbook for 2018-2019. Can't remember where I read the complete tally for the 8 years but it's not even close when one considers how much of the EU contributions additionally originated there)
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Hard to imagine Ukraine kicking Russia out of the entire country but allowing them to assault Ukraine from Russian territory, instead of going into Russia and disabling the launchers.
Of course that seems like a frightening escalating, and you have to wonder what Russia would feel the need to do in response. They would be under immense internal pressure in this situation, even if they were quite sure the Ukraine armed forces had no intention of holding Russian territory. But at the same time, it would really just be more of the same.
We're all concerned about Russia using nuclear weapons, considering their rhetoric I'm a little surprised they're not using them already. Or do they still believe in MAD and it's just a bluff? You have to wonder what kind of condition those weapons are in a well.
Ukraine actually attacking Russia would be exactly the scenario were Russian doctrine suggests using nuclear weapons for self defense of their homeland.
Some small attacks likely wouldn’t be enough as we have already seen, but assured destruction of anyone launching a large scale attack on Russia is key to their defense strategy. It only becomes MAD when the attacker also has large scale nuclear capabilities.
Russian doctrine also considers the use of tactical nuclear attacks to "deescalate" a conflict, so this keeps to be worrying. Maybe they really believe that they are actually fighting a war against NATO so that MAD already applies here, but who knows?
I was wrong about a lot of things I thought the Russians wouldn't do, so I just share my thoughts about their published theories, I won't do any real predictions for this.
Wow. With friends like these, who needs enemies? Former mayor of Düsseldorf and SPD party member posted this and then had to retract it. The whole gamut of downplaying and doubting Russia's atrocities and finger pointing at Ukraine. Can't find the text of the original to provide a translation.
Now we see exactly that happen what I discussed here (and was heavily criticised for) around the Steinmeier visit that was cancelled by Zelensky, which I called a stupid move.
Ukrainian diplomats use a much more aggressive language towards Germany than the Russians do and therefore those who are close to Russia have a field day finger pointing at Ukraine.
It's not what the majority of Germans thinks, but Melnyk and Zelensky just make it so simple for Russian apologists in Germany.
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Russia attacked at least five smaller regional train stations in the west of Ukraine today:
Sure, I just take it as a given that any incursion would have to be stealthy and you couldn’t stay. Ideally it would be done with artillery fired from Ukraine or from the air.
But my scenario isn’t a self-defense scenario, Ukraine would be taking out weapons attacking Ukraine only, not actually attacking Russia with some goal of taking territory or concessions.
Russia may decide not to notice the difference, but surely no one can seriously think the Ukrainian army could occupy Russia.
From the bit I’ve read, Russia and the US are both concerned that the limited use of “tactical” nukes could result in escalation leading to Armageddon, saying they would treat it just like a big nuke.
A solid start, but the last two things just ruin it. Forged Russian passports would make much more sense, and who would be so stupid to bring Ukrainian nationalist literature to Russia in these times?
why did i have one the 1st day of xmas in my head when reading that list
The problem with your scenario is that you would have to take targets like the Air Force Base Engels where the Tu-160 strategic bombers are at home (which can be used to carry Kalibr cruise missiles close to the Ukrainian border and fire them safely from Russian airspace. That is so deep in Russia that I doubt such chirurgical but massive attacks are possible for Ukraine.
Fortress Zaporizhzhia prepares to fight as war closes in:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...porizhzhia-prepares-to-fight-as-war-closes-in
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...porizhzhia-prepares-to-fight-as-war-closes-in
As a Pole... Dear parents, dear grandparents, thank you for always being right about both RU and DE. And sorry for being a naive puppy who thought DE had changed.
I can only say to you that the majority of us doesn't agree with anything he said. Most Germans stand fully behind Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, there were demonstrations with up to 250.000 people and Ukraine flags everywhere you could see.
We just happen to have a bunch of questionable politicians who are revealing their true colors more and more. And it's just the latest chapter in a long line of corruption stories surrounding especially the two historically biggest parties CDU/CSU and SPD.
But people are beginning to realize it, even before the war. The two biggest parties are in a downwards trajectory while the Greens and the Liberals are gaining support. And while they aren't saints either, they left a much better impression in this whole mess if you ask me.
Can I just say thanks to everyone who contributes to this thread with updates and tweets etc. I go to this thread before I read anything else on the matter.
(Sound on)
Top Gun version coming soon...
Same. I always check this thread first. Again, thanks to those who keep it updated.
Yeh no way they'd blow up their own oil depots, and if they are evacuating military families from bordering areas, it is to panic the Russian people into thinking they are at risk of invasion.
In my opinion.
I watched Top Gun Saturday night and wondered how probably a flat spin is in a fighter jet. I guess now I have my answer.
Putin is now getting cucked before the world inside his own country, by another country that he doesn't think legitimately exists.
How would a deranged dictator with nukes, who has built his entire mythology around faux shirtless masculinity react to this level of humiliation ?
Anti-System Fighter definitely screams Russian FSB trying to make up a violent sounding English t-shirt, but it seems it’s just a punk band shirt.
I love that the swastika shirt still has the creases in it from where it was folded into a box