Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It is Biden's job to make Germany do what they have to do. It is the Ukrainians' job to show that Germans are still helping Putin.

Too many Germans were making money with Putin, you don't expect them to give it up without applying force on them. I think the best would be to get some lists with who was getting how much money from Putin, I am sure there will be some surprises in there.

On which note, Gerhard Schroeder can feck right off. Not that he’s the only one, no doubt.
 
On which note, Gerhard Schroeder can feck right off. Not that he’s the only one, no doubt.

Is it ever possible that the single German who made money from Russia was a former Prime Minister? No, it is impossible. First you corrupt lower level politicians. And most of those corrupt politicians that are being paid from Russia are still active today.

That's the reason that today, Germany is giving more money to Russia than to Ukraine, two months after the start of the war.
 
I find this particular element of the war fascinating. It feels very very high risk for Ukraine to be taking the fight inside Russia. Which makes me think that those strikes have been at such key targets that the potential blowback was considered worth the risk. I’d assume any strike inside Russia would need Zelensky’s express authorisation, but I don’t know that obviously.
Its been suggested those attacks needed US approval, which has only recently been forthcoming.
 
I can’t post this but I wish someone could. There’s a guy called Francis Scarr on twitter who has posted a release from the Russians with what is purportedly a Ukrainian neo-nazi “starter pack”, replete with swastika. The reason it’s so ridiculous is that within the starter pack there are 3 copies of the computer game Sims 3. So it seems as though there’s been a breakdown in communication within the FSB where they’ve been asked to include in their photo 3 Sims (as in SIM cards) and have ended up with Sims 3! It beggars belief.

It so much beggars belief that I'm inclined to believe there is active sabotage taking place within the FSB from those who realise that Putin's invasion is a total disaster.
 
Not officially confirmed but apparently the sources are credible. Not like Russia was really going to do something anyway.

 
It so much beggars belief that I'm inclined to believe there is active sabotage taking place within the FSB from those who realise that Putin's invasion is a total disaster.

I don’t disagree that there will be people in all echelons of the Russian state who are well aware of that. I’m more dubious that they’d act on it. Going against Putin must be as close as you can get to Stalinist purges right now.
 
I don’t disagree that there will be people in all echelons of the Russian state who are well aware of that. I’m more dubious that they’d act on it. Going against Putin must be as close as you can get to Stalinist purges right now.

Yeah, but acting stupid - as in deliberately misreading instructions in a way that's believable if you were actually stupid - is a form of passive-aggressive sabotage that might just be a fine-line that's deemed safe enough to tread. Who knows.
 
How does Grozev define "collapse"?

I'd be wary of NEXTA by the way, they've been unreliable. I've avoided them lately and try to get as many official/authoritative sources as possible.

I've deleted the post, as I've just seen the March 4th date on the tweet referenced. My mistake.
 
Are we maybe getting a bit too obsessed about fires in Russia? Not talking about those at oil depots close to the border, or ones at weapons design bureaus. But at a mall? Fires happen all the time.

Well, there was a story about a litter bin that caught fire in Yakutsk ... but I decided to ignore that one.
 
The SAS-trained saboteurs at work again, no doubt.

 
This is a very disturbing video, from someone who seems to be very knowledgeable.

It essentially says that Putin has no real plan but is simply acting in escalation mode (in gambling fashion, believing that things to his advantage will somehow simply fall into his lap from the chaos), that Putin sees this as primarily a war with the West (and only secondarily with Ukraine), that he is ready to use nuclear weapons, starting with a tactical nuke, and that the target will not be Ukraine but somewhere in a NATO country - probably a non-civilian, military target.

 
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The risk of MAD has been hanging over the US/NATO and Russia for more than half a century. New ICBMs don't change that.

Russia sent another diplomatic note to the US demanding an end to weapons shipments, and Lavrov is talking more about WWIII. I interpret this as more signs that things aren't going well in Donbas and that the risk of things falling apart for Russia is going up.
 


The risk of MAD has been hanging over the US/NATO and Russia for more than half a century. New ICBMs don't change that.

Russia sent another diplomatic note to the US demanding an end to weapons shipments, and Lavrov is talking more about WWIII. I interpret this as more signs that things aren't going well in Donbas and that the risk of things falling apart for Russia is going up.

Let's hope so. The US/UK/French approach of not mentioning nukes and ignoring Russian posturing must be winding the Kremlin up something fierce.
 
Let's hope so. The US/UK/French approach of not mentioning nukes and ignoring Russian posturing must be winding the Kremlin up something fierce.

If anything, Russian performance in the war thus far would suggest most of their missiles would fail if they ever launched them. Maybe not all of us would die then.
 


The risk of MAD has been hanging over the US/NATO and Russia for more than half a century. New ICBMs don't change that.

Russia sent another diplomatic note to the US demanding an end to weapons shipments, and Lavrov is talking more about WWIII. I interpret this as more signs that things aren't going well in Donbas and that the risk of things falling apart for Russia is going up.


At best a new missile means that NATO isn't going to attack Russia. Something which they weren't going to do anyway. It doesn't provide any leverage or power.
 
I get it sounds contradictory, I apologize for it. The Steinmeier incident for me was just the tip of the iceberg of Ukrainian diplomatic failure in Germany, but 90% of that is Melnyk's fault. I didn't realize there wasn't a translation for the article that only talked about Melnyk, maybe that would have made things clear.

The point broken down is: Melnyk behaves like a fascist

He is representing Ukraine, so if you want to understand the situation like that you can claim this to be a war between two fascist states, we would have to fight both or neither based on that sentiment.

Zelensky made a dumb move by not wanting Steinmeier to visit, but I don't think he is anyway near as toxic as Melnyk to the Ukrainian cause, on the contrary. Without the scorched earth Melnyk created it could maybe even have been a powerful statement. The way it was, it just became part of Ukrainian diplomatic failure - which isn't Zelensky's fault, it was ill-advised but understandable I guess.

I guess we will agree to disagree. For me it was a diplomatic success putting germany in the crosshairs to pressure them to do tge right thing

And definitely an insult to germans as you said
 
I guess we will agree to disagree. For me it was a diplomatic success putting germany in the crosshairs to pressure them to do tge right thing

And definitely an insult to germans as you said

Scholz is/was already facing pressure from within his own government coalition even. Melnyk didn't create that, he's actually alleviating it, by steering things off-topic.
 
I guess we will agree to disagree. For me it was a diplomatic success putting germany in the crosshairs to pressure them to do tge right thing

And definitely an insult to germans as you said
It was a diplomatic failure as it actually fuels existing skepticism against Ukraine.

Nonetheless it looks like things are (still very slowly) moving in the right direction: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...iefern-a-c53fa755-c0d1-4b59-b8a6-7d2dbaaebd74

Germany seems to prepare a delivery of Gepard air defence tanks (armament is a radar controlled twin 35mm autocannon). It should be quite effective against low flying targets, and it is an interesting choice as this is really one of the more complicated systems - so even if it should be delivered quite fast, it won't appear on the battlefield immediately.
 
This is a very disturbing video, from someone who seems to be very knowledgeable.

It essentially says that Putin has no real plan but is simply acting in escalation mode (in gambling fashion, believing that things to his advantage will somehow simply fall into his lap from the chaos), that Putin sees this as primarily a war with the West (and only secondarily with Ukraine), that he is ready to use nuclear weapons, starting with a tactical nuke, and that the target will not be Ukraine but somewhere in a NATO country - probably a non-civilian, military target.



I don't think he does because I don't think there's a tangible benefit. If he drops a Nuke, what does he gain? Does he even stop the flow of weapons into Ukraine? Probably not, maybe only a Nuke on the border to stop supply lines would make any sense in terms of tangible benefit. But even then it seems like mass overkill.

Most of his moves gives him or Russia tangible benefits. Taking Crimea gives him access to the massive amount of gas and oil reserves in the black sea. Taking a land bridge and more costal sites makes it much easier for Russia to run Crimea while giving even greater access to the oil and gas reserves.

The same content maker claims Putin is obsessed with how quickly NATO could send a Nuke to Moscow. If he is that obssessed with it, it means he won't want to risk it. His attitude to covid shows he is paranoid about risks that could damage his health. Putin tends to calculate what he can get away with to a large extent.

Thank You for the shedloads of content you post on here btw. Do you have a background or career that helps you come across all this content or is it just an interest?