I'd like to see Ukraine armed to the teeth, nothing would concentrate Russian minds more on a negotiated settlement than a Ukraine with the ability to fire 500 cruise missiles at Moscow. If there are to be "security guarantees" that are sort of like Article 5, then they have to have a lot more teeth than the last lot of Western security guarantees. Ukraine doesn't need to host Western troops or be a member of NATO to benefit from Western military know how. It seems to me that anything that prevents Ukraine from being able to evolve into the kind of European facing state it clearly wants to be, isn't sustainable.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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The moment there's a pause in fighting the Ukrainians will be quickly armed to the gills with sophisticated NATO weapons. Putin has ruined his pre-war posture where he could saber rattle and NATO appeased him by not arming the Ukrainians in any meaningful way. Now that he has blown his credibility by invading, NATO will provide the Ukrainians with the most sophisticated weapons imaginable to where the only way Putin could mess with them again would be through WMDs.
The BB reports:
"The US military's top commander in Europe ... Gen Tod Wolters, who leads the military's European Command, ... said that the US has established two centres - each with about 100 personnel - that are working to funnel military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian liaison officers are present at these centres."
"The US military's top commander in Europe ... Gen Tod Wolters, who leads the military's European Command, ... said that the US has established two centres - each with about 100 personnel - that are working to funnel military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian liaison officers are present at these centres."
I don't think he is right on the "no one" part but it is interesting to see how united the Ukrainians are. I myself was quite surprised too. For example, in 2014 a Ukrainian navy chief defected.
The Ukrainians seem to capture so many intact vehicles. I wonder how many of these - tanks, trucks, APCs etc - are just deliberately abandoned by the occupants when not under attack ... so they they can escape the possibility of being attacked and then just either (a) walk back to the Russian lines to claim that they were attacked; or (b) head westward to surrender or desert?
yes its crazy , UA has more tanks then when the war started.
https://www.rferl.org/a/nuland-ukraine-incredible-losses/31777845.html
"Russia has been sustaining "incredible" losses since the start of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a senior U.S. State Department official says, putting the figure at more than 10,000 killed since the attack was launched just over a month ago.
"I think that, unfortunately, the Russians have not yet fully learned how tough the Ukrainian military is," U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said in an interview with Current Time on March 29.
"They are taking incredible losses on the Russian side -- you know, by our estimates, more than 10,000 Russian dead," Nuland said."
Meanwhile ... https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russian-losses-cause-result-impact-1.6400495
"Sean Maloney is a professor of military history at the Royal Military College who served as the Canadian army's historian for the conflict in Afghanistan. He told CBC that, based on his knowledge of Russia's military and sources inside of Belarus and Russia, the high-end NATO estimate [mid March] of Russian casualties is likely accurate.
"I am confident, with the sources that I have, that the number of Russians killed in action is above 15,000," Maloney said."
If Maloney is right, that would imply around 60,000 Russian troops now out of action one way or another!
"Russia has been sustaining "incredible" losses since the start of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a senior U.S. State Department official says, putting the figure at more than 10,000 killed since the attack was launched just over a month ago.
"I think that, unfortunately, the Russians have not yet fully learned how tough the Ukrainian military is," U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said in an interview with Current Time on March 29.
"They are taking incredible losses on the Russian side -- you know, by our estimates, more than 10,000 Russian dead," Nuland said."
Meanwhile ... https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russian-losses-cause-result-impact-1.6400495
"Sean Maloney is a professor of military history at the Royal Military College who served as the Canadian army's historian for the conflict in Afghanistan. He told CBC that, based on his knowledge of Russia's military and sources inside of Belarus and Russia, the high-end NATO estimate [mid March] of Russian casualties is likely accurate.
"I am confident, with the sources that I have, that the number of Russians killed in action is above 15,000," Maloney said."
If Maloney is right, that would imply around 60,000 Russian troops now out of action one way or another!
I can’t tell if this is some sort of fecked up joke.
I saw the beginning of the video and thought “what a madman”. Then I saw the trailer behind him. Absolute lunatic.
I've no idea if this video is genuine (it looks like it is), but:
"'We've been thrown into the s**t! Our rifles don't f***ing fire!' Young Russian conscripts complain they have been given 1940s guns and are suffering heavy losses against Ukraine"
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/vide...150934243/640x360_MP4_3374642500150934243.mp4
"'We've been thrown into the s**t! Our rifles don't f***ing fire!' Young Russian conscripts complain they have been given 1940s guns and are suffering heavy losses against Ukraine"
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/vide...150934243/640x360_MP4_3374642500150934243.mp4
So the Ruble is back to pre invasion levels, what's up with the sanctions ?
Eight years of seeing just how shit life could be, life under a Russia that can’t be fecked with any real investment in Crimea, or worse still in a militia fiefdom of the LNR or DNR, will help galvanise that.
I had seen somewhere of reports that Russian conscripts were given Mosin-Nagant rifles. Designed in 1891.
I presume that the Kremlin is using all the money they had stored up to shore up the Ruble. Which means it cannot last forever. And they are spending their money on currency manipulation and not on guns or tanks.
In fairness, driving over that is far easier than 99% of the pot-holled Ukrainian roads!
Makes sense if they're using guns made in the 40s.
Reports are, as the video shows, that the Russians left the dead everywhere.
Bloomberg have a good summary here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...strongest-in-a-month-paring-big-post-war-loss
TL;DR The recovery of the ruble is because of preventative measures taken by the Kremlin. It could keep working for a while. It cannot last in the long term.
Germany and Austria look at rationing gas.
Germany and Austria take step towards gas rationing - BBC News
Germany and Austria take step towards gas rationing - BBC News
Weapons manufacturers must be loving this
My guess would be they are propping it up by dumping all their foreign fx reserves and forcing his oligarchs and other worldwide assets to buy rubles, while blocking sales. Currencies can be manipulated, for example the Swiss only stopped capping theirs in 2015.
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It may be overly optimistic, but I'm getting the sense that the Russian troops in Ukraine may not be far - maybe another 10 days or so - from a total collapse.
with 20% interest rate and the sell button disabled its no wonder
They're not even in a straight line!!
If there are really 15,000+ dead Russian soldiers then that represents more than 0.01% of their entire population - men, women and children. Staggering number really in just over a month. I'd be defecting and running over any officers that came near me if I were them.
I have no idea what it takes to convert a home or machine from natural gas to electric, but a massive program to divest of the need for natural gas, which Europe relies on Russia for more than oil, could be important.
Surely it's time to open fields that were closed in an effort to convert to green energy, at least in the short term.
And where do Saudi Arabia get off being anything but the US's b*tch? They need to get their priorities in order. US puppets that go off script do not have a high success rate.
Military Superpower, tHeY are sAvInG tHe gOoD stuff!It has now beaten the Brown Bess for longevity of service.I had seen somewhere of reports that Russian conscripts were given Mosin-Nagant rifles. Designed in 1891.
I had seen somewhere of reports that Russian conscripts were given Mosin-Nagant rifles. Designed in 1891.
So strange to see those antiques in the hands of a soldier in full combat uniform in 2022. As much as the design is still great for what it can do, that is not what you would want against a properly armed Ukrainian, be it a marksman or a regular grunt. Even if a few US soldiers own Garands and Thompsons at home, I don't think they'd want to carry those in a conflict zone.
I also saw photos of Russians using PM M1910 machine guns, which are directly drived from the 1884 Maxim machine gun. Whaaaaaaat?
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Does the vast majority of Russians support Putin today? The answer seems to be yes. For me, that's probably the biggest surprise in this war. I expected that the average Russian will abandon Putin, it hasn't happened.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...084cf1022fe172#block-6244826c8f084cf1022fe172
Russian president Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings surged in March to levels not seen in five years as the war in Ukraine enters its second month, according to an independent survey published Wednesday.
According to the Levada Center, which is Russia’s main independent pollster, Putin’s job approval grew to 83% in March from 71% in February. The last time Putin reached similar approval ratings was in 2017, prior to the introduction of an unpopular pension reform that raised the country’s retirement age.
The past month also saw increases in Russians’ trust for the country’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and the country’s ruling party United Russia, the pollster said.
The share of those who said Russia is moving in the right direction has also grown to 69%, a jump of 17% from the month before.
Independent sociologists have questioned the logic of polling public opinion in a country where information about the war is carefully curated by state television which has portrayed the country’s invasion of Ukraine as a defensive “special military operation” aimed at “de-nazifying” Kyiv. Sociologists have also said respondents in the country could be afraid to tell pollsters they are opposed to the war. Russia’s parliament earlier this month passed a far-reaching law imposing a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading intentionally “fake” news about the military.
Still, the latest Levada polling appears to indicate that the Kremlin has so far managed to galvanize support for its invasion of the country.
The Levada Centre has not released a poll of public opinion specifically on the war since the conflict began. Plans to publish results of an earlier poll were scrapped by the centre’s employees because of concerns that their results would promote the intensification of the conflict. State-run opinion polls have indicated that around 70% support the country’s actions in Ukraine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...084cf1022fe172#block-6244826c8f084cf1022fe172
Russian president Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings surged in March to levels not seen in five years as the war in Ukraine enters its second month, according to an independent survey published Wednesday.
According to the Levada Center, which is Russia’s main independent pollster, Putin’s job approval grew to 83% in March from 71% in February. The last time Putin reached similar approval ratings was in 2017, prior to the introduction of an unpopular pension reform that raised the country’s retirement age.
The past month also saw increases in Russians’ trust for the country’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and the country’s ruling party United Russia, the pollster said.
The share of those who said Russia is moving in the right direction has also grown to 69%, a jump of 17% from the month before.
Independent sociologists have questioned the logic of polling public opinion in a country where information about the war is carefully curated by state television which has portrayed the country’s invasion of Ukraine as a defensive “special military operation” aimed at “de-nazifying” Kyiv. Sociologists have also said respondents in the country could be afraid to tell pollsters they are opposed to the war. Russia’s parliament earlier this month passed a far-reaching law imposing a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading intentionally “fake” news about the military.
Still, the latest Levada polling appears to indicate that the Kremlin has so far managed to galvanize support for its invasion of the country.
The Levada Centre has not released a poll of public opinion specifically on the war since the conflict began. Plans to publish results of an earlier poll were scrapped by the centre’s employees because of concerns that their results would promote the intensification of the conflict. State-run opinion polls have indicated that around 70% support the country’s actions in Ukraine.
He does, probably more than Putin before the war, at least in my part of the world.
Yep
I reckon it's too early to draw firm conclusions about this. First, most Russians are not aware of the huge military losses their troops are suffering, but these can't be hidden forever. If, for example, they have 50,000 troops out of action already (dead, wounded, captured, surrendered or deserted ), and if each one of those has, say, 10 close friends and/or family members, that's already half a million Russians who will eventually find out what happened, and each of these will in turn talk to other Russians in a snowball effect.
Second, it will take time for the real effects of the economic sanctions to work their way into the system, not least because there's a limit as to how long the government can artificially shield away these effects. But when GDP eventually shrinks by a third (let's say), when inflation hits 30%, when unemployment triples, when shortages in the shops accelerates, when spare parts for repairing all sort of things become unavailable etc etc etc ... then we shall see.
Third, most Russians are unware of the devastation being wrought in their name inside Ukraine. OK, many may well never know, assuming that Russia's internet shut-off remains permanent ... but that's a big assumption.
I wouldn’t be so sure their families and friends will find out what happened. They are pretty good at controlling spread of information, under threat.
Well when their husbands and sons don’t come back or come back missing things, it’ll be tough to hide
How can they not find out eventually? I don't imagine that all those Russian families and friends affected are simply going to accept the permanent and sudden disappearance, without explanation, of the many thousands who have died (and the more who will die), or just accept that the thousands of troops returning with missing limbs (etc) all got them in a car accidents. And eventually the returning soldiers themselves will tell their friends and families what really happened. Even Putin can't keep a lid on such things forever.