Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

So far Russia keeps drawing red lines in this conflict, that will escalate the conflict with NATO. NATO keeps backing off, backing off and Putin is emboldened to redraw the red line further and further.
NATO needs somebody, who is not afraid to be proactive, and draw their own lines, make their rules that Russia should fear overstepping. Western Ukraine (maybe Lviv region) should be no fly zone to allow civilians a safe passage. Idk what they can impose, but any tampering with nuclear power plants should be met with a strong response instead of expressions of concern.
We don't have to. The longer this goes on, the more Russia is likely to lose. There is no need to get into escalation games with Putin. The aim should be to deny him tactical options, and contain him, not engage and open space up for him.
 
United with a dire loss and now Russia is seemingly starting amphibious assualts in the vicinity of Odesa. What a fecking night.
 
We don't have to. The longer this goes on, the more Russia is likely to lose. There is no need to get into escalation games with Putin. The aim should be to deny him tactical options, and contain him, not engage and open space up for him.

Yeap. Bleed him out and bleed him dry resources wise. Then let nature takes its course within the walls of the Kremlin.
 
We don't have to. The longer this goes on, the more Russia is likely to lose. There is no need to get into escalation games with Putin. The aim should be to deny him tactical options, and contain him, not engage and open space up for him.

Yep.
 
We don't have to. The longer this goes on, the more Russia is likely to lose. There is no need to get into escalation games with Putin. The aim should be to deny him tactical options, and contain him, not engage and open space up for him.
It will be messy, but a prolonged conflict will potentially ensure a loss for Russia. Keep targeting their softer targets like fuel & supply trucks & the war will be won through attrition.
 
Interesting given it's only about €260.
Any chance that the judiciary will refuse to support Putin?

A couple of russian twitter accounts I follow think that the fine is for the video message. She will be looking at 5-10 years for storming the news broadcast afaik.

And if you think the judiciary will refuse to support Putin, check out Navalny's court hearing from today. The judge took 3-4 breaks to call the president administration during the process.
 
A couple of russian twitter accounts I follow think that the fine is for the video message. She will be looking at 5-10 years for storming the news broadcast afaik.

And if you think the judiciary will refuse to support Putin, check out Navalny's court hearing from today. The judge took 3-4 breaks to call the president administration during the process.
Is that officially what happened or just a suspicion?

Although I'm sure the judge presiding over a high profile case like Navalny answers directly to Putin, I could still imagine that in less important cases involving protestors there might be more room to judge leniently.. even if it's unlikely.
 
Is that officially what happened or just a suspicion?

Although I'm sure the judge presiding over a high profile case like Navalny answers directly to Putin, I could still imagine that in less important cases involving protestors there might be more room to judge leniently.. even if it's unlikely.



 
:lol: Did you know Alexander Wendt is super into aliens?



Yes, he went a bit off the rails with his Quantum book and subsequent talk of Aliens. Why a world state is inevitable is imo the most important piece in IR since Waltz's dissertation in the late 50s. It will be remembered 100 years from now as the political theory piece that predicted the future of the world all the way back in 2002.
 
Depends. My parent's house was semi-destroyed during the Lebanese Civil War (75-90), no one helped rebuild shit.

That was more because no mass consensus was made as to who would take care of the rebuild and how, especially when Lebanon's neighbors hate each other's guts. In the case of Ukraine, I think the US and the EU will have some kind of Marshall Plan ready.
 


These images show they have access to the type of drone that landed in Croatia and would suggest that Russia is responsible for that.

If there were Patriot, THAAD, or US Iron Dome batteries along the border with Ukraine in NATO countries, perhaps we could shoot down anything that threatens to cross into NATO territory. Given the number of projectiles so far that have entered NATO airspace, they should threaten to shoot down any missiles or drones that threaten NATO. Russia isn't flying bombing runs over Western Ukraine and are using air-launched ballistic missiles from standoff range to attack Lviv and other areas. Who can really tell where a missile aimed for Lviv or 15 km from the border are going to land so it's best to shoot them down just to be safe. Missile defense for Western Ukraine. :angel:

I'm sure this isn't practical though given the risks involved.
 


These are like the loitering munitions Russia has been using. Basically small drones with warheads attached. At present, I don't think they can be exported except to the UK.
 


These are like the loitering munitions Russia has been using. Basically small drones with warheads attached. At present, I don't think they can be exported except to the UK.


I think Putin realizes that he's in a race against time to demolish the country before any of these weapons have enough time to see the light of day in Ukraine. If he can put a wrecking ball to most Ukrainian cities, he will be able to pull back and claim some sort of fake victory against fascists for domestic consumption.
 
BBC reports:

"The US Senate has voted unanimously to condemn Vladimir Putin as a war criminal.

The rare cross-party vote called on the International Criminal Court at The Hague to probe Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.

Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer said in a speech on Tuesday ahead of the vote that Putin should be held accountable for "atrocities" in Ukraine.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a sponsor of the bill, said in a statement: "The next step for me is to work with our British allies and hopefully others to create an intel cell that will make available to the public Russian military units engaged in war crimes and start naming their commanders.

"A name-and-shame campaign is in the making."
 
Russia claimed to be in control of Kherson 2 weeks ago. I guess they might have to reconsider.

They were in loose control after the Mayor made some sort of deal with them to spare the city from getting obliterated. From what I've seen, the locals have continued to rebel and protest.
 
How fecking stupid must you be of an army to have 4 generals being KIA within a month?

Listening to Michael Kofman talk, it's apparently more in Russian military doctrine/culture for commanders to lead from the front so it's not irregular for lots of them to die. It seems pretty stupid to me.
 
I didn't say that being isolationist is in their best interest, I said that there are large sections of their society who believe it the most desirable option.

I wasn’t being sarcastic! Was genuinely musing upon what is realistically best moving forward.

Russia under Putin has become such an incredibly destabilising factor in the World - meddling in elections, Brexit, funding up the far-right, troll farms, causing Division in the West, aggressive, illegal military actions against sovereign nations…

Russia / Putin is just such a toxic element throughout Europe and the West.

It seems like isolating them as much as is possible and dealing with them less and less is the only Peaceful way to go. As it is with North Korea.

If Putin is removed / overthrown and the people choose to fight for democracy then they should be supported, but as is right now, surely you have to say enough’s enough.
 
I think Putin realizes that he's in a race against time to demolish the country before any of these weapons have enough time to see the light of day in Ukraine. If he can put a wrecking ball to most Ukrainian cities, he will be able to pull back and claim some sort of fake victory against fascists for domestic consumption.

But Ukraine still needs missile defenses or their own cruise/guided missiles to be able to shoot down incoming Russian missiles and to return fire, unless Russia is about to run out completely. The Ukrainians could use support from standoff missiles in the East where they don't have any air cover and are limited to what's on the ground. The Switchblades might help with that if they can be supplied, but I can't see any getting into Kharkiv (or Mauriopol). Lots of the Russian missiles hitting Western Ukraine are being launched either inside of Russia/Belarus or from Donbas. It could be a game changer if Ukraine had something like that.

I'm hopeful they have some anti-ship missiles for the Odessa assault. It would be great to see a bunch of Russian ships sunk.
 
Listening to Michael Kofman talk, it's apparently more in Russian military doctrine/culture for commanders to lead from the front so it's not irregular for lots of them to die. It seems pretty stupid to me.

The alternative explanation is that the Russian troops are so demoralised and disaffected, and Putin so frustrated at the lack of progress, that their commanders have gone to the front line - hence more exposed - in an attempt to gee up the troops and get them moving forward
 


I know this is something that has been happening for humanity’s entire written history and more but… I still fail to comprehend how someone can be personally killing 7-10 people a day during a war and then at the end of it simply letting it slide off him and integrating back into society. I just can’t.

I think if I killed 1 person I’d have PTSD. Killing 10 sounds crazy, it’d be life altering. I can’t even imagine killing 10 a day and then being able to sleep again.

PS. It’s easier for a leader to give a command and feel disconnected from the result if he’s not doing it himself or observing the result with his eyes. Gunning someone down yourself feels very personal.
 
These images show they have access to the type of drone that landed in Croatia and would suggest that Russia is responsible for that.

If there were Patriot, THAAD, or US Iron Dome batteries along the border with Ukraine in NATO countries, perhaps we could shoot down anything that threatens to cross into NATO territory. Given the number of projectiles so far that have entered NATO airspace, they should threaten to shoot down any missiles or drones that threaten NATO. Russia isn't flying bombing runs over Western Ukraine and are using air-launched ballistic missiles from standoff range to attack Lviv and other areas. Who can really tell where a missile aimed for Lviv or 15 km from the border are going to land so it's best to shoot them down just to be safe. Missile defense for Western Ukraine. :angel:

I'm sure this isn't practical though given the risks involved.

Poland just got 2 Patriot batteries in the last week and Romania already has Patriot, Aegis and Thaad systems.

I know this is something that has been happening for humanity’s entire written history and more but… I still fail to comprehend how someone can be personally killing 7-10 people a day during a war and then at the end of it simply letting it slide off him and integrating back into society. I just can’t.

I think if I killed 1 person I’d have PTSD. Killing 10 sounds crazy, it’d be life altering. I can’t even imagine killing 10 a day and then being able to sleep again.

PS. It’s easier for a leader to give a command and feel disconnected from the result if he’s not doing it himself or observing the result with his eyes. Gunning someone down yourself feels very personal.

It's also a bit of a questionable article. I know nothing about the guy but in the British and American Armies snipers don't go around shooting people like it's Call of Duty. 40 in a day might happen once, for 1 in 100 people, but most of the time they're watching the same person for days or weeks and doing nothing. That article is making it out like that guy chalks up 40 kills a day every day.