Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

11101 said:
This is my fear. When an agreement is eventually reached and he gets his token bit of victory land and withdraws his troops, the world will quickly forget and loosen it's grip on Russia's neck. These sanctions and controls need to remain in place as long as the current regime is there. It will be costly to everybody though and I'm not sure the political appetite will remain for long after the war is over.
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I personally don't think the sanctions will go away as fast as they would be needed to save the Russian economy in time. Western leaders probably see the sanctions as a way to finally get rid of him and will want to leave them in place to further weaken him domestically.

Either way, the dye has been cast.

 
Zlatattack said:
I know very little about the region, but I was watching a youtuber called Bald and Bankrupt, who often visits Eastern Europe and the former USSR. He talks to people and a lot of people, especially older people talk about how life was better under the USSR. This is usually in places that used to be subsidised by the USSR and since it's collapse have fallen into decay and poor governance.
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Wasn't that Bald and Bankrupt guy the one who somebody on Reddit or somewhere came up with a theory he was some sort of murderer/rapist/trafficker or something? Not that that's particularly relevant to whether your point is true or not, just saying I seem to remember there may have been reason to believe he's not a goodie?
 
TwoSheds said:
Wasn't that Bald and Bankrupt guy the one who somebody on Reddit or somewhere came up with a theory he was some sort of murderer/rapist/trafficker or something? Not that that's particularly relevant to whether your point is true or not, just saying I seem to remember there may have been reason to believe he's not a goodie?
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Yeah. Idk about the details. I think it's speculation?
 
TwoSheds said:
Wasn't that Bald and Bankrupt guy the one who somebody on Reddit or somewhere came up with a theory he was some sort of murderer/rapist/trafficker or something? Not that that's particularly relevant to whether your point is true or not, just saying I seem to remember there may have been reason to believe he's not a goodie?
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He's a dickhead, he was in Ukraine when the fighting broke out and no doubt put himself there on purpose for views and not for any noble cause.

I don't know whether the allegations about him are true but I saw that he was on a refugee train in one of his videos, probably taking up space that another person could have used.
 
11101 said:
This is my fear. When an agreement is eventually reached and he gets his token bit of victory land and withdraws his troops, the world will quickly forget and loosen it's grip on Russia's neck. These sanctions and controls need to remain in place as long as the current regime is there. It will be costly to everybody though and I'm not sure the political appetite will remain for long after the war is over.
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I think we are beyond the point where there will be any normalisation of relations with Putin. At some point, of course, Europe and, in particular, Russia have to move back to a more constructive relationship (you can’t change your geographical location) but that won’t happen until there’s a new face in the Kremlin.
 
fergieisold said:
bloody hell that’s brave. Presumably Russia won’t dare touch them.
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I believe they re still shelling Kyiv so unless they are going to stop completely or unless they are sure where they are and are confident in their accuracy then anything is possible (especially with a bunch of conscripts and the "fog of war")

I suspect they didn't intentionally down MH17... but things happen quickly and things go wrong
 
sebsheep said:
I don't think he wants to escalate. Most of his threats regarding other nations just appear as attempts to get them to stay away, don't think anyone will test him on them though.
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His historical pattern of behaviour suggests that he opts for escalation over defeat - and he's facing defeat. That doesn't mean he'll necessarily choose to escalate by militarily attacking these travelling EU politicians, but it's not impossible.
 
sun_tzu said:
I believe they re still shelling Kyiv so unless they are going to stop completely or unless they are sure where they are and are confident in their accuracy then anything is possible (especially with a bunch of conscripts and the "fog of war")

I suspect they didn't intentionally down MH17... but things happen quickly and things go wrong
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This might be wrong, but from the news and videos that go out it always seems to me like the main shelling takes place in the early morning hours? Obviously fighting also occurs during the day, but I get the impression from those videos showing artillery after artillery bombing the cities seem to happen at night. Is that true, and if yes is that "normal" for invasions?

Besides has the centre of Kyiv been targeted yet?

Anyway I find the image of a train with European prime ministers just casually passing through a war zone uncontested somewhat comical for lack of a better word. I'm sure Russian soldiers won't touch it, but it must be a surreal experience being on that train and seeing the (presumably) largely peaceful countryside pass by until reaching the less peaceful areas closer to Kyiv.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What are the arguments against joining NATO presented by the left of centre?
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The illusion of having a somewhat independent foreign policy. Member states seen as problematic including Turkey, Hungary and most notably the US. Purely idealistic reasons I would say. Also an unwarranted sense of moral superiority. Obviously doesn't mean people support Putin.
 
Needham said:
And still, the US basically fled from both. Russia sees this stuff and acknowledges to itself the human sacrifices it's willing to make while seeing the US/West unwilling to make those same sacrifices. It is part of the calculus that led Putin to think the rationale for war during this American administration was a sound one.
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Yeah, no.

The Soviets lost 15,000 troops in Afghanistan over 10 years, and that took down the Soviet Union. These casualties are on that order after only a few weeks. Putin won't be dismissive about these numbers, if he's got any sense.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I think we are beyond the point where there will be any normalisation of relations with Putin. At some point, of course, Europe and, in particular, Russia have to move back to a more constructive relationship (you can’t change your geographical location) but that won’t happen until there’s a new face in the Kremlin.
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There's a limit to how long they can go on without having the opposite impact and i think that's measured in months not years.

If Putin isn't toppled in the next few months i can't imagine the sanctions will have any beneficial impact beyond creating a hostile Russia that will outlast him.
 
Smores said:
There's a limit to how long they can go on without having the opposite impact and i think that's measured in months not years.

If Putin isn't toppled in the next few months i can't imagine the sanctions will have any beneficial impact beyond creating a hostile Russia that will outlast him.
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I cant see him stopping shelling civilians till there is an agreement to roll back a chunk of the sanctions (freeing up foreign currency reserves for a start)
 
sun_tzu said:
I cant see him stopping shelling civilians till there is an agreement to roll back a chunk of the sanctions (freeing up foreign currency reserves for a start)
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That seems to be the tactic, wage terror on Ukraine, and hope they will accept a somewhat face-saving peace treaty to stop it.
 
sun_tzu said:
I cant see him stopping shelling civilians till there is an agreement to roll back a chunk of the sanctions (freeing up foreign currency reserves for a start)
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Yeah you'd imagine that would be pushed in any peace deal with Ukraine.

Ukraine will need to be seen as accepting sanction removal/reduction as otherwise the Dems won't have political cover to do so.
 
Smores said:
Yeah you'd imagine that would be pushed in any peace deal with Ukraine.

Ukraine will need to be seen as accepting sanction removal/reduction as otherwise the Dems won't have political cover to do so.
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yes though even if Ukrine ok's it there probbly is no limit to how many Ukranians some of the republican hawks would gladly see murdered if it means they can have high gas prices for the mid terms so Dems will perhaps get some cover but lot of incoming flack as well
 
Smores said:
There's a limit to how long they can go on without having the opposite impact and i think that's measured in months not years.

If Putin isn't toppled in the next few months i can't imagine the sanctions will have any beneficial impact beyond creating a hostile Russia that will outlast him.
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We’ve had an ostensibly hostile Russia since at least 2007 (Putin’s speech in Munich), it’s just we pretended that we could still do business. If Russia remains hostile, then so be it - this is ultimately about restoring balance in Europe around a revanchist state with destructive nationalistic tendencies and an over-inflated sense of its current economic and military power.
 
Red Dreams said:
You are glossing over the fact Graham and McCain were there in 2014 promising help and the US helped install an anti Russian government that ended up with 14,000 getting killed.
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Where have you come from and what shit do you keep peddling in the last 24 hours?
 
Dr. Dwayne said:
I'll send her $20 CAD, should just about cover it.
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$350 according to Google.

She was smart making a video, it gave her a profile and that’s what’s protecting her. They can’t make her a martyr and have too many people start asking questions.
 
golden_blunder said:
So with the ships off the coast homing in on Odessa it looks like the Russians are preparing to ramp up, not down
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Difficult to say knowing Ukrainian lives will be lost, but I kinda hope Russia does attempt to land there. I expect nothing but a humiliating defeat for them.
 
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