Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Abramovich over the past 2 or 3 days has flown from Moscow to Tel Aviv and now headed to Illinois, USA

It would be interesting to see if any news agencies could figure out if he's running around bribing politicians in Israel and the US


IL is the two letter code for Israel, isn't it?
 
A sad story from Italy today - a coach has overturned, it was full of refugees who'd come overland into Italy. They were very close to their destination here, Pescara on the Adriatric coast. A young mum has died, her two little kids are now alone in a strange country.

They were safe, and then everything goes very wrong in an instant.
That’s awful :(
 
A sad story from Italy today - a coach has overturned, it was full of refugees who'd come overland into Italy. They were very close to their destination here, Pescara on the Adriatric coast. A young mum has died, her two little kids are now alone in a strange country.

They were safe, and then everything goes very wrong in an instant.


A happier story out of Italy:


 
Sorry if been posted but don't worry everyone Elon's got Ukraine's back. He's challenging Putin to single combat with the prize being Ukraine.
 
Sorry if been posted but don't worry everyone Elon's got Ukraine's back. He's challenging Putin to single combat with the prize being Ukraine.

Musk is full of surprises.... I for one didn't think anybody could get me rooting for putin
If Musk wins I think he implants nuralink in his new subjects and sends them off to mars to dig tunnels
 
Sorry if been posted but don't worry everyone Elon's got Ukraine's back. He's challenging Putin to single combat with the prize being Ukraine.


Is there any way they can both lose and the prize is we don't ever have to hear from either again?
 
Can’t help but think that the US and allies view Ukraine as already lost now from a military and humanitarian perspective and this is more of a warning to the Ukrainians than anyone else.

The warnings to Russia from NATO are basically don’t dare touch NATO territory and understand that as long as you hold your position in Ukraine, you will be under crippling sanctions.
From a NATO perspective it’s a dream scenario really as long as Putin doesn’t escalate to attack a member state. They are crippling Russia beyond anything they probably thought possible to do without causing WW3 and Putin himself has enabled them to do it. Whilst the Ukraine war is horrible for those connected and for us ‘normal’ people looking on, I’m certain it’s been seen as an opportune window to essentially give NATO carte blanche re sanctions and Ukraine is a necessary sacrifice for that by the higher ups.
 
From a NATO perspective it’s a dream scenario really as long as Putin doesn’t escalate to attack a member state. They are crippling Russia beyond anything they probably thought possible to do without causing WW3 and Putin himself has enabled them to do it. Whilst the Ukraine war is horrible for those connected and for us ‘normal’ people looking on, I’m certain it’s been seen as an opportune window to essentially give NATO carte blanche re sanctions and Ukraine is a necessary sacrifice for that by the higher ups.
Yeah that’s the between the lines of my post succinctly put.
 
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?
 
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I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision into someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

If not stopped in Ukraine he will take Moldova next. He won't directly attack any NATO members but will use other methods to foment unrest in the former Soviet republics on the Baltic, similar to what he's done in Donbas, etc. Former Warsaw PAct countries may be next.
 
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision into someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

This looks like Putin growing stronger to you?
 
Clear sign that China doesn't intend to join the majority of the world as their UN Security Council OSCE rep characterizes the Ukraine and Russia negotiations as enthusiastic and important dialogue

China expresses no urgency for the people suffering in Ukraine.
 
Clear sign that China doesn't intend to join the majority of the world as their UN Security Council OSCE rep characterizes the Ukraine and Russia negotiations as enthusiastic and important dialogue

China expresses no urgency for the people suffering in Ukraine.

They can try to slip around as much as they can, but you can't put a lipstick on a pig. China has already made its bed with Russia and is likely to die on that hill.
 
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision into someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.
I don't believe he's actually thinking that far ahead so specifically. I think he'll go as far as he perceives the sum of his military + influence can take him, along all parts of Russia's border. But I'd be much more worried if he wasn't getting so bogged down in Ukraine. It is changing the calculus for all the countries around him and must be changing the calculus even for Putin himself.

That's why I said I don't think he's thinking of next big moves anymore, as the present situation doesn't allow him to. The reason why the tone and actions are becoming more aggressive isn't because he has more aggressive designs on the rest of Eastern Europe since this started, but rather because his own situation has gotten more precarious and he is more aggressively trying to eke out either a costly victory or a more favorable resolution.

Morally I feel terrible though, that more can't be done to help Ukraine achieve a military victory (pushing back to pre-invasion de facto borders) that would be well within reach of NATO air, ground and naval forces, because of the threat of nuclear war.
 
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?
He won't even want or be able to occupy Ukraine long-term. Guess is his objective is to secure recognition for the separatist republics and Crimea while exacting a formal no NATO agreement. Don't see him moving anywhere else.
 
The UN Security Council's focus is on the OSCE ( Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe)

The UN Security Council Russian Federation representative justifying the killing of the American in Ukraine a couple days ago by saying, "He was not only a journalist, but he was also a film maker"

In addition, the representative from the UAE concluded with his statement by offering the Russian Federation rep Vasily Nebenzya a rim-job for doing such a great job as the UNSC chair.

The Ukrainian UN rep Sergiy Kyslytsya granted permission to address the UNSC. He asks for Russia to release the two abducted mayors. Asking for the OSCE to thoroughly document the war crimes by Russia in Ukraine.
More from Rep Kyslytsya: "let's put swords to the plow", "good-wins-evil": another Soviet gift. All this "dancing with a tambourine" of Tuvan shoigus around idols while nebenzami are allowed to sit in a chair of the USSR in the Security Council and as zombies to ring Putin's mantras
 
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I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?

World War 3 is curtains for all of us. That is whats at stake. cnuty Putin knows this .

You say democracy is at stake - its much more than that.
 
This looks like Putin growing stronger to you?
Absolutely. He’s consolidating his power and achieving his objectives. If China assists Russia in getting around sanctions, he will have forged an alliance that gives him everything. The west/NATO is (rightly) afraid of nuclear war, and so Putin is taking all he can now before returning to the “negotiating “ table.
 
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?

Putin's objective is to destroy the existence of Ukraine as a free, independent and democratic nation - because he's fears the example it will otherwise set for the people of Russia.

He won't be able to achieve that objective, far less trying to conquer a Baltic state (or any other NATO-member country). If he did try to conquer a Baltic state, and the fight remained non-nuclear, his invading/attacking forces would be completely wiped out within a few hours ... and Putin knows that.

In his frustration he might try annexing Moldova, but that's the limit of what he might try.
 
Absolutely. He’s consolidating his power and achieving his objectives. If China assists Russia in getting around sanctions, he will have forged an alliance that gives him everything. The west/NATO is (rightly) afraid of nuclear war, and so Putin is taking all he can now before returning to the “negotiating “ table.

At the very least this invasion has shown the Russian military not to be the massive threat it was before. That is not a win for somebody as obsessed with their image as Putin is.

That’s aside from the fact that they’ll never be able to hold Ukraine long term, it’s a metric shit tonne of egg on his face. He may ‘win’ short term just by virtue of how many people they have but that’s far from what he expected/wanted
 
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?

Fully expect that after the outcome of this is decided everyone around Russia that isn't in Russia will be seeking to join a western alliance, be it EU or NATO.

I can say with full (maybe misplaced) confidence that he wouldn't dream of going after a NATO state, former Soviet or not. It's WW3 and he's not gone full tear the world down, he doesn't want to die nor does he want to lose his grip on power (although I suspect the latter might be challenged when this is over with).

He's not gonna get the chance to go after anyone else I don't think, they'll have already started the processes to protect themselves and his military are fecked either way, laid out in front of the world too for full humiliation.

Anyone who thinks the categorical revulsion and unified response of both corporate and governmental sides to Russia right now as appeasement clearly just wants to get their rocks off on seeing war imagery. We've given the strongest response as a collective in history short of engaging directly. It staggers me when people think we've done nothing in response.
 
He won't even want or be able to occupy Ukraine long-term. Guess is his objective is to secure recognition for the separatist republics and Crimea while exacting a formal no NATO agreement. Don't see him moving anywhere else.

I think one of the guests on HBO's Bill Maher mentioned Putin's ask was:
1) Ukraine to pledge not to join NATO
2) Crimea recognized as part of Russia
3) Recognition of the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donbas (not sure if this meant separation from Ukraine or being republics within Federation of Ukraine)

Obv a negotiated solution >>> protracted war
 
Absolutely. He’s consolidating his power and achieving his objectives. If China assists Russia in getting around sanctions, he will have forged an alliance that gives him everything. The west/NATO is (rightly) afraid of nuclear war, and so Putin is taking all he can now before returning to the “negotiating “ table.

Consolidating his power? No, he's turned Russia into a pariah state, with greatly reduced military and economic power, and virtually zero diplomatic influence because nothing that Russian diplomats say from here on will be believed as long as Putin's regime remains in power. And that's to say nothing of rising unrest within Russia.

He's weakening his military on a daily basis - another month of this and large sections of his invading troops may well crumble, then cut and run. Moreover, the Russian economy is in freefall and nothing the Chinese can do will be more than slight mitigation around the edges.
 
I think one of the guests on HBO's Bill Maher mentioned Putin's ask was:
1) Ukraine to pledge not to join NATO
2) Crimea recognized as part of Russia
3) Recognition of the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donbas (not sure if this meant separation from Ukraine or being republics within Federation of Ukraine)

Obv a negotiated solution >>> protracted war

Putin doesn't have the resources for a protracted war. He's already lobbying China for help only 3 weeks in.