Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

TMDaines said:
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She's got some guts, that lady. Seems like Man Utd has found his outfit for tomorrow.

Edit: FFS, the Caf autocorrect doesn't let me mock Macron, so clarifying it's him I meant to reference...
 
For everyone under the impression that Russia has secret reserves of troops and equipment they can keep pumping into Ukraine.



 
China would be stupid to be involved considering EU and US make up around 33 percent of their exports according to Wikipedia
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
He won't even want or be able to occupy Ukraine long-term. Guess is his objective is to secure recognition for the separatist republics and Crimea while exacting a formal no NATO agreement. Don't see him moving anywhere else.
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Surely the goal is to put a puppet in control of the country.
 
hellhunter said:
China has everyone by the balls economically
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They do? Isolating them is impossible but they don't have enough food nor energy to be self-sufficient.

Frankly, the only country in the world that can claim to be able to shrug off complete world isolation after an adjustment period is the US.
 
Rightnr said:
They do? Isolating them is impossible but they don't have enough food nor energy to be self-sufficient.


Frankly, the only country in the world that can claim to be able to shrug off complete world isolation after an adjustment period is the US.
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I'm really not an expert, but without China, there are no semiconductors. Without chips, there are no cars, computers, phones, you name it

Just one example of course
 
Despite the small victories Ukraine are having, foot soldiers mean nothing when fighting missiles, the question is, how many do Russia have and when do they run out...
 
Gringo said:
Despite the small victories Ukraine are having, foot soldiers mean nothing when fighting missiles, the question is, how many do Russia have and when do they run out...
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If history is anything to go by they don't have as many as we would be lead to believe. So let's hope that's the case.
 
nimic said:
Isn't their economy the most globalized of them all?
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The economy is global, we all need each other. So we need to figure out how to all get along even if we fecking hate each other behind the mask of faux diplomacy
 
hellhunter said:
I'm really not an expert, but without China, there are no semiconductors. Without chips, there are no cars, computers, phones, you name it

Just one example of course
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Until China invades Taiwan, they don’t have chips either.
 
nimic said:
Isn't their economy the most globalized of them all?
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My point is about the survival basics - food and energy. Everything else is a matter of cost, really.

Yes, China make a lot of trinkets but I would bet on the US in a complete isolation scenario.
 
Rightnr said:
My point is about the survival basics - food and energy. Everything else is a matter of cost, really.

Yes, China make a lot of trinkets but I would bet on the US in a complete isolation scenario.
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It's a grim thought experiment but I'd bet on authoritarian China to be able to move quicker to fill any gaps. They could repurpose factories at a whim.

Also they could absorb any fatalities in the transition.
 
hellhunter said:
I'm really not an expert, but without China, there are no semiconductors. Without chips, there are no cars, computers, phones, you name it

Just one example of course
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There are other places around the world where rare earths come from and Taiwan is not part of China and actually produces most of the chips. Problem is many of the rare earths are a) dominated by Chinese production and b) dirty and horrible to produce. Likely would mean scraps over resources outside China and increased pollution and ecocide that is often currently largely limited to China. Technological advances could help this though of course. The Americans and EU should be starting to think about these things now and investing appropriately.
 
Just remember that in the past countries have declared war on their largest trading partners. One example is Germany declaring war on Russia in 1914 and also risking war with Britain by invading Belgium, which were their largest trading partners before hostilities. I bring it up just to point out the fact that when countries decide that their are essential geopolitical interests at stake, they have in the past been willing to significantly harm their own economies.

I don't think the interdependence of China's economy with that of the US and Europe is enough to guarantee their won't be hostilities. What is surprising to me is that China is willing to tolerate such animosity to support Russia's ambitions in Ukraine. I would imagine that even to them it would only be a cost worth paying over their own ambitions in Taiwan.
 
moses said:
It's a grim thought experiment but I'd bet on authoritarian China to be able to move quicker to fill any gaps. They could repurpose factories at a whim.

Also they could absorb any fatalities in the transition.
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Whilst I agree, I think the quality of their products and innovation will suffer greatly without western support. For example they produce diesel engines by the million but nobody wants to put a Chinese diesel injector in them, they use Bosch, Cummins etc. The really technical products are something that the majority of their population are not set up to think laterally enough to design, build and maintain. At least in my experience. It's a weakness of a repressive education system and society in my view.
 
TwoSheds said:
There are other places around the world where rare earths come from and Taiwan is not part of China and actually produces most of the chips. Problem is many of the rare earths are a) dominated by Chinese production and b) dirty and horrible to produce. Likely would mean scraps over resources outside China and increased pollution and ecocide that is often currently largely limited to China. Technological advances could help this though of course. The Americans and EU should be starting to think about these things now and investing appropriately.
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Pretty sure the US has companies looking to address that imbalance already. But we digress.
 
Rightnr said:
My point is about the survival basics - food and energy. Everything else is a matter of cost, really.

Yes, China make a lot of trinkets but I would bet on the US in a complete isolation scenario.
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In that case Russia are actually in an excellent position. Food and energy are the two things they have in massive abundance.
 
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