Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

RedDevilQuebecois said:
It has to be utterly embarrassing from Russia's perspective, but the Chinese could well use the opportunity to send men to gain enough combat experience like when the Nazis sent the Condor Legion during the Spanish Civil War.:nervous::mad:
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No way. They might sell them weapons, but the first sign of Chinese soldiers in Ukraine and NATO would jump in with two feet. There's nothing in it for them, and it risks war and at the very least sanctions. China is a lot harder to sanction than Russia, and it would hurt a lot for everyone involved, but they can't risk it.
 
VorZakone said:
I seem to have missed the Nazi-remark but the overall NATO-theme and Ukrainian military strengthening (Turkish drones for example) were the main core of Russia's calculus, according to Lee/Kofman. And not some restoration of a historical "Greater Russia" which is implied in other analysis.
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Despite what Pootin himself said?
 
GlastonSpur said:
What could China supply that the Russians don't already have? The key problem for Russia in Ukraine is that they can't take the capital, can't remove the Ukrainian government, and can't conquer and annexe the whole of Ukraine... because they don't have the troops to do this. I don't see any equipment that China could supply that would change this.
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I was thinking the same thing. Modern Chinese military equipment (like tanks, APCs, helicopters, etc.) has never been used in combat nor saw extensive NATO-caliber military exercises, and there are not many countries buying that military hardware. It would make little sense for Russia to cash in by using battle-wise untested equipment now when most of the calls to arms from Moscow have been about reaching foreign contingents so far.
 
alexthelion said:
Despite what Pootin himself said?
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Well, I'm just mentioning what Lee/Kofman argued pre-invasion. But with Putin's words it's hard to say whether he truly means it or whether he uses the rhetoric for domestic consumption. Plenty of people will say he does mean it though.
 
China will only help Russia if NATO go into Ukraine first. If China can prolong any campaign in Europe, it'll serve to distract the US away from Taiwan.

But I can't see them entering the fray unless there's a very clear benefit to them, At the moment, there isn't one. And if anything, there's a massive economic disincentive to siding with Russia given all the sanctions flying around.
 
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Raoul said:
Agreed. The guy literally wrote love letters to Kim. He's basically the love child of Krushchev and Harvey Weinstein in a Tarantino film.
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I think the Trump-Kim letter series will go down as one of the strangest things that will have happened in our lifetimes. I hope they are published eventually in full, the few parts made public are, well, quite something.
 
sun_tzu said:
Hey if America is happy to put the we won't defend Taiwan if you don't send troops to Russia deal officially on the table I'm sure China will take it
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That's not what I suggested. Instead I suggested that, if China were to send troops to Ukraine, they should be discreetly informed that doing so would turn any current uncertainty about American defence of Taiwan into a cast-iron certainty of American defence of Taiwan - viz American troops being immediately sent to Taiwan.
 
Quite amazing that Glenn Greenwald is pushing the chemical weapons propaganda narrative to justify an invasion for the second time. Not enough people know that he was a supporter of the Iraq War.
 
Boycott said:
Quite amazing that Glenn Greenwald is pushing the chemical weapons propaganda narrative to justify an invasion for the second time. Not enough people know that he was a supporter of the Iraq War.
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It’s been obvious for a while now that Greenwald is on the Russian gravytrain.
 
Boycott said:
Quite amazing that Glenn Greenwald is pushing the chemical weapons propaganda narrative to justify an invasion for the second time. Not enough people know that he was a supporter of the Iraq War.
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He's the Dave Rubin of Tucker Carlsons. A perfect charlatan for age of internet disinformation.
 
McGrathsipan said:
So Russian Gas is still being piped into the EU?
And we are paying?

Is that right
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And through the Ukraine ironically enough. Actually, the supply chain of gas & oil is extremely complicated. It’s not black & white and without sufficient supply & reserves many countries & industries would not be able to fully operate leading to all kinds of expected & unexpected consequences.
My employer closed its Russian offices last week and put the employees on paid leave. What can you do.
 
I've been looking at some YouTube alt-right channels. They're full of excuses for Putin's invasion. It goes to show that these American "patriots" (as they loudly like to proclaim themselves) support tyranny and dictatorship over genuine freedom and democracy.

But I guess we already knew that, their being part of the Trump-cult.
 
Came across this Twitter thread as China is now in the thick of things for discussion's sake.



The 7th tweet is the most interesting. The original Chinese scholar who did the analysis says that China has about 1-2 weeks to make a decision between either aligning for real with Putin or choosing their economic ties with the West and Asian democracies.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What could China supply that the Russians don't already have? The key problem for Russia in Ukraine is that they can't take the capital, can't remove the Ukrainian government, and can't conquer and annexe the whole of Ukraine... because they don't have the troops to do this. I don't see any equipment that China could supply that would change this.
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Weaponry that’s not twenty years old? Particularly vehicles. Maybe MREs that aren’t nearly 10 years out of date?
 
calodo2003 said:
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Essentially, he says that the Russian army in Northern Ukraine around Kyiv is totally fecked - scavenging for food and fuel, cut off from effective re-supply - and the Ukrainians can take their time hitting their tanks one by one.

This northern army is also short of ammunition, especially artillery ammunition ... which explains why Kyiv has only so far been hit mainly with longer range missiles etc.
 
golden_blunder said:
Weaponry that’s not twenty years old? Particularly vehicles. Maybe MREs that aren’t nearly 10 years out of date?
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That wouldn't change the outcome. The basic equation is that Russia does not have enough troops to take Kyiv, nor remove the Ukrainian government, nor conquer and occupy Ukraine.

If Russia is seeking Chinese military aid, that would be a big indication that they they are losing this war,
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Came across this Twitter thread as China is now in the thick of things for discussion's sake.



The 7th tweet is the most interesting. The original Chinese scholar who did the analysis says that China has about 1-2 weeks to make a decision between either aligning for real with Putin or choosing their economic ties with the West and Asian democracies.
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I think the US will make this choice clear when they meet the Chinese in Rome this week (I think). Supplying weapons and supporting Putin's war will force a cleavage between the authoritarian world and the democratic world. The West, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand (among others) should make clear that they will work towards eliminating reliance on China for essentially anything if China decides to abet Putin's war. China likes to play both sides (warned the US about Russia's desire to exacerbate the Great Recession in 2008, told Russia that we knew they were invading and had asked China to help dissuade Putin), but they have to understand that continued growth/influence isn't guaranteed without the West. The West should also work to persuade TSMC and other chip manufacturers to duplicate their production facilities in Taiwan in the West because a war in Taiwan would cripple global microchip production and potentially lead to dependence on China.

My main worry is that Xi is very much like Putin in his revanchist aims and authoritarian domestic policies. He seems to want China to be the sole superpower rather than a potential competitor to the US. He also very much wants Taiwan under his thumb.
 
GlastonSpur said:
I've been looking at some YouTube alt-right channels. They're full of excuses for Putin's invasion. It goes to show that these American "patriots" (as they loudly like to proclaim themselves) support tyranny and dictatorship over genuine freedom and democracy.

But I guess we already knew that, their being part of the Trump-cult.
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There's a video doing the rounds that says something along the lines of 'We went from strength and power to this'

Iit shows Trump (ironically at the NATO summit) where he pushes his way to the front of the leaders and flexes his suit and stands there in the most arrogant manner possible. It then shows Biden wearing a mask, I presume in hospital, helping a blind man (I think) walk somewhere, he then stops guiding him and looks confused, all this is aided by the three question marks photoshopped above his head.

Now I get Biden does make blunders and I think he is suffering from old age. But he is 80 years old. I also get people will pick at anything he does and jump on any mistake, real or percieved. What pisses me off the most is the Trump clip.

It's not strength he is showing, it's arrogance and disrespect. It's a lack of grace and class. It epitomises how most of the rest of the world sees the USA and it also displays all the traits most hate about the country. It's like a visual metaphor for how the USA treats the rest of the world at times.

Those that are posting this are confused as they seem to be Pro Russia and Pro Putin but are suggesting they want the USA to exert it's power, strength and dominance by intervening through it's mighty military power.

The mental gymnastics going through these people's heads must be exhausting.
 
The BBC reports:

"Russia appears to have banned Instagram from operating in the country. In a tweet, NetBlocks confirmed that real-time data shows that Instagram is now restricted in Russia across multiple providers."

This will only lead to more Russians thinking: "If this 'special military operation' is going so well, how come our means of communication are being shut down?"
 
If the below is true, it might somewhat explain Russia starting to look for ways to exit the war. Their economy has been crippled but more importantly, so has their ability to do anything about it.

The Russian stock market and Ruble will be interesting tomorrow.

 
Sir Matt said:
I think the US will make this choice clear when they meet the Chinese in Rome this week (I think). Supplying weapons and supporting Putin's war will force a cleavage between the authoritarian world and the democratic world. The West, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand (among others) should make clear that they will work towards eliminating reliance on China for essentially anything if China decides to abet Putin's war. China likes to play both sides (warned the US about Russia's desire to exacerbate the Great Recession in 2008, told Russia that we knew they were invading and had asked China to help dissuade Putin), but they have to understand that continued growth/influence isn't guaranteed without the West. The West should also work to persuade TSMC and other chip manufacturers to duplicate their production facilities in Taiwan in the West because a war in Taiwan would cripple global microchip production and potentially lead to dependence on China.

My main worry is that Xi is very much like Putin in his revanchist aims and authoritarian domestic policies. He seems to want China to be the sole superpower rather than a potential competitor to the US. He also very much wants Taiwan under his thumb.
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The problem China has is that the country itself is made up of many different regions & cultures, Xi the communist party are scared of losing power and seeing the country break up. This is far more of a concern than being the World’s sole superpower. Their interest is far more in being the World’s economic superpower. The oppression is to keep the communist party in power and stop the breakup of China. A completely different perspective from Pootin. At least that’s how I see it.
 
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