Nuclear bomb aside, this is actually more aligned with the analysis by Rob Lee and Michael Kofman if I recall their articles correctly.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Nuclear bomb aside, this is actually more aligned with the analysis by Rob Lee and Michael Kofman if I recall their articles correctly.
That's not necessarily so.
First, Russia wouldn't be able stay in all the places they are now - e.g. surrounding three-quarters of Kyiv because that'd be a complete non-starter for Ukraine. Second, Ukraine would remain a free and independent state, albeit somewhat reduced in size, instead of ruled by Putin. Third, they'd apply to join the EU and that application would be fast-tracked. Fourth, Russia's military would be weakened compared to pre-invasion ... and considerably weakened politically on the world stage. Fifth, defensive weapons would pour into Ukraine unhindered - and this time they'd include jets and very sophisticated anti-air defence systems.
I wonder, do the Russians love their children too?
They suggested Ukraine would invade Southern Russia? And that the Ukrainian government is "in essence" Nazis?
The Republicans can all feck off and jump into a large canyon.
It would be because most of the wealth comes from the south east and is currently occupied by Russia.
What would President Bernie Sanders do?
A+ propaganda but its fcking infuriating that it works in 2022, that people of Russia are that fcking thick that they believe it.
I seem to have missed the Nazi-remark but the overall NATO-theme and Ukrainian military strengthening (Turkish drones for example) were the main core of Russia's calculus, according to Lee/Kofman. And not some restoration of a historical "Greater Russia" which is implied in other analysis.
This is probably a terrible analogy and anecdote, but when I was younger I absolutely despised tomato, my Mum would keep giving them to me in meals. One day when I was a student I was food shopping by myself and went out and bought myself some tomatoes, after a while I realised that I'd actually ended up liking them. I suspect propaganda works in a similar way.
The was a good quote on modern Russia's ideological appeal, or rather the lack of it, by the author of Sapiens- Yuval Noah Harari- that basically said that Putin has NOTHING to offer from an ideological perspective to other nations that's attractive: it's just nationalism and oligarchy.
There are many valid criticisms you could make of the West and capitalism/liberalism, there are many you could make of Islamic governments, communist governments etc.., but they're propped up by a belief in something that appeals to people on some level. I'm not sure how Russia intends to keep hold of Ukraine by the notion of blood ties, especially when they've been blowing their supposed brothers to bits and pieces.
Love your optimism, but I fear we sleepwalk into a rump state Ukraine with greater political and defensive instability, and both EU and NATO membership still far off in the distance. Just because Ukraine didn’t fall in 72 hours, I think people are overstating their position.
Hmm, let's see how willing China is to help out...
What a show of strength from Russia
Just saw this is the front page of the FT. Definitely not something I wanted to read.
It actually seems like it on the face of it but reading the article, it's nowhere near as big. They apparently asked for their help but not that recently but more like at the start of the invasion. The article itself doesn't really make it clear.
I hope China play the fence and hopefully that means they reject the request or provide limited cooperation. Even if we don't get a military escalation as a result of this Ukraine war, the hypocrisy coming from Russia is astounding and makes you realise they still think they live in the Soviet times.
Either way though, and as I've said on plenty of other occasions, this should be an eye-opener for votes in the West refusing to live in the real world about the coming decades and the challenges democracies, however imperfect they may be, face.
It has to be utterly embarrassing from Russia's perspective, but the Chinese could well use the opportunity to send men to gain enough combat experience like when the Nazis sent the Condor Legion during the Spanish Civil War.
No attitude, just can’t follow what point you’re getting at. Doesn’t add up.
Temporarily occupied by Russia. They'd have to permanently keep very large numbers of troops there in order to keep it permanently. They don't have the military resources to do that without being severely weakened elsewhere.
It has to be utterly embarrassing from Russia's perspective, but the Chinese could well use the opportunity to send men to gain enough combat experience like when the Nazis sent the Condor Legion during the Spanish Civil War.
I find it very hard to believe China would even remotely consider sending Chinese troops to Ukraine. The Chinese powers to be would even be very cautious to send any sort of military aid and there will be a lot of division in China itself with regards to Ukraine. Russia & China is very much a marriage of convenience.
They’d need to do quite a bit of ethnic cleansing in order to realistically get those Ukraine regions under any sort of control
I can't see it either. All the more so if America whispers in the Chinese ear: "you send troops to Ukraine, we send troops to Taiwan."
No way they'll send official Chinese troops. They might want to beta test their weapons and given what happens with some construction projects in China, this might lead to a lot of 'fodder death'. Perfect for Russia and China - Putin doesn't give a flying feck about his people and China have free non-Chinese guinea pigs.It has to be utterly embarrassing from Russia's perspective, but the Chinese could well use the opportunity to send men to gain enough combat experience like when the Nazis sent the Condor Legion during the Spanish Civil War.
Depressing to even write it out like that but that's what I'd envision might happen.
Why would China even consider this? With the way the Russian economy is going China can drive as hard a bargain as they want to. There's no reason for them to get involved militarily.
I'm pretty sure China has figured out that if NATO won't send troops to Ukraine there is no way they are sending them to Taiwan
I think the arithmetic is slightly different, especially if China starts supplying weapons to an outright enemy.
This is not status quo of the pre-Beijing Olympics.
It is depressing. No matter the course of events to come, plenty of reasons to be worried with any potential Chinese involvement.
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I'm pretty sure they haven't - not if Chinese troops were to be sent to participate in an invasion of a European country.
What could China supply that the Russians don't already have? The key problem for Russia in Ukraine is that they can't take the capital, can't remove the Ukrainian government, and can't conquer and annexe the whole of Ukraine... because they don't have the troops to do this. I don't see any equipment that China could supply that would change this.
Hey if America is happy to put the we won't defend Taiwan if you don't send troops to Russia deal officially on the table I'm sure China will take it
https://www.infomigrants.net/en/pos...us-bangladeshi-migrants-stuck-in-ukraine-urge
Ukrainian authorities are keeping foreign nationals in military bases and with the soldiers. Places that the Russians would be targeting.
Ukrainian authorities are keeping foreign nationals in military bases and with the soldiers. Places that the Russians would be targeting.
The Chechens are proving to be quite the warriors
We have to be careful when trying to avoid WW2 to not stumble into WW1.
Yes, I doubt it is in their interests. But you never know with dictators.
To be honest (and strange as it sounds), I'm glad Biden is in the seat instead of Obama (feckless) or Trump (impulsive and unhinged).
Trump would have been a disaster. Putins best friend one day, launching nukes the second
Surely this must be Russia's way of testing the strength of their relationship? They can't be running out of equipment already?
Agreed. The guy literally wrote love letters to Kim. He's basically the love child of Krushchev and Harvey Weinstein in a Tarantino film.