Similar to what that M0123 chap was saying but phase shifted by pi.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Guy I'm talking to currently [likely from a different demographic] thinks its just another hoax and wont happen. Doesn't believe it any more
That's either very naïve or incredibly charitable.
What do you mean?
It's kinda hard to explain if you don't get it from the start. You can quickly glance through this thread if you have the time.
To be brutally honest, you have been wrong the entire time saying this invasion wasn't going to happen. You can't be off by so much and now claim it's because the US have been warning about an invasion for the past month. No, Putin was always going to invade and the buildup of forces over multiple months demonstrates this. Like I said in an earlier post, Putin would have convinced enough of the Russian people that an invasion was necessary regardless of anything the West said. The US played no role in this apart from alerting everyone to the worrying developments.
No doubt that US administrations won't let a good crisis go to waste. This one reflects pretty well on the Biden administration, all things considered. They're getting plaudits for their intel release strategy. But I disagree with your notion that the US fuelled this. At the end of the day, it's the Russians who gradually escalated their military movements.
I have been following this thread and the events very closely but I’m still struggling with your notion. How’s is US putting Ukraine at risk here? This is a really fecked up view given the evidence at hand, no offence.
To be fair to him, I don't believe he's said that.
Anyway to your main point, I believe that Putin wanted something, but not specifically to invade. He is risk averse and would have preferred to get his way through bullying.
Intel release strategy? The russians have telegraphed every movement very publicly and intentionally. It's all been open source. There's been as much intel on TikTok as from Langley.
I disagree here. Russia wanted something, preferably by bully tactics. Simply not agreeing to be bullied doesn't denote fuelling conflict.
I doubt the US wanted to showcase anything; they have bigger issues to deal with currently, and Putin forced them into this.
So I'll ask you: Where was the risk in anything the US did? (other than not concede to Putin?) He's either going to invade or not. I don't think the US made that more or less likely.
The TikTok videos showing military equipment and troops only make sense because the US intelligence (and UK intelligence too, they had some good reveals early on) provided the necessary context to put it all together. Commercial satellite companies like Maxar also did a good job of publishing high resolution images to show the increasing buildup. But yes, multiple groups played a role in illustrating the degree to which Russia prepared for this invasion.
I don’t think that I’ve ever said that, certainly not as a fact — while as an opinion, from the very beginning I’ve established that I’m rooting (consciously and subconsciously) for the peaceful outcome. It was always a 50/50 situation and I knew that it was a very real possibility even though I had hoped for a different outcome — and said so as much.
I do think that the invasion wasn’t always the first option although it was always a real possibility as a back up plan if things don’t go as Putin had planned… they didn’t.
I’ve explained my line of thinking in previous posts, I don’t think that I can explain it better. I’m more than okay with you disagreeing upon it, but I’m not really sure what’s fecked up about it and what evidence contradicts what I’m saying. U.S. did what U.S. always does — played the situation to suit their needs best. And it’s more than fair, I just don’t like that they also claim the position of moral authority while their negotiation tactics weren’t focused as much on deescalating the conflict (and contradicted Ukraine’s own wishes) and more on gaining as much as they can from the crisis. It’s very interesting because it was a new approach from the States and it’s worth analyzing it.
And I’m not trying to shift the blame from Russia by the way, it is the 100% aggressor in this situation that had led this situation to the brink of an actual war that will most likely cost thousands if not tens (if not even more) of thousands lives.
Still no invasion?
Can't believe the CIA would be bullshitting us, my world is shattered.
Can't believe the CIA would be bullshitting us, my world is shattered.
Oh, don’t agreeing with him on the terms is absolutely fine. I’m talking about the constant streams of sensationalist “classified Intel” that was “leaked” to the press that acted as the equivalent of pouring a can of gasoline on a bonfire. In my opinion it was a calculated risk — not because it had leaked Putin’s actual plans as many had suggested but because it forced him to act, one way or another. U.S. bet on him choosing the rational option… he didn’t.
We don’t know what Putin thinks about the matter but a lot of his high-end people voiced, publicly and in private, a notable frustration with U.S. approach. You either get publicly smeared day by day in front of the whole world or you back off, having to move your own army from somewhere inside your borders because a foreign power said so. I don’t want to continue to verbalize their perspective as it paint them as victims — while they are an aggressor that initiated that whole thing. But I do thing that U.S. had gambled with Ukraine’s future without the latter’s consent.
Of course the big question that can negate everything that I’ve said beforehand is does Putin has a realistic compromise in mind that NATO & Ukraine can agree with or was he always going to force his initial terms as non-negotiable with a military invasion as an alternative? Because if he wasn’t willing to compromise at all, it doesn’t really matter how U.S. acted in the public sphere.
If the leaks delay the war and make extra time for diplomacy (or better yet, even change Putin's plans) then they are nothing but a good thing imo.
Before Putin invaded Crimea and Donbas, support for joining NATO was at 15-20% in Ukraine. Ukrainian support for joining the EU, another of the things Putin seeks to prevent, is also up 20-30% since the original invasion.
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The list of the sides of the conflict in order of their responsibility for this mess:
1. Russia
2. Russia
…
47. Russia
48. U.S.
49. Ukraine
etc.
Again, do they delay the war? They do if you assume that they’re actual leaks that made Putin rethink his plans. They don’t if you don’t believe in their credibility and believe they only irritate Putin and force him to commit to his criminal scheme even more.
At the end of the day it’s unlikely that you or I will get an actual proof that would support or disprove our theories. You trust U.S. government by definition and act/think accordingly. I don’t trust U.S. government (the only government that I trust even less is Russia’s) at all and act/think accordingly.
If all works the way you envision it does then it’s of course the right strategy by the way.
Read somewhere that 2% of the human population are psychopaths. Many of those are in power on some level. The rest of humanity try fix and undo all the shit those people do. Maybe if people could be tested for being psychopaths, those people could be denied leading positions in society. But in stead they are running the show. feckin world going off its hinges.
If you believe there is no alternative other than war, then of course not. But if you believe Putin is using all of this as a negotiating tool to gain concessions in Donbas and other areas, then extra time for diplomacy is nothing but a good thing. Even if war is inevitable, it helps to degrade Putin's perceived intent in invading and accurately frames his invasion as naked aggression.
I don’t believe that those “leaks” gain any time, that’s the thing. If anything, it would work the other way. But it’s just my gut feeling based on my arbitrary knowledge of Putin & how he operates so I may very well be in the wrong here. And we’ll probably never get the answer as it can only come from Putin himself.
They make sense because Russia did it so publicly that any amateur enthusiast could collate the information. Everything has been done for pantomime and maximum exposure from a Russian perspective That's not how you prepare for war if it's your top choice. This is partly why I disagree with the read that 'war was inevitable.'
The idea that these military leaks made Putin rethink his plans etc are so farcical they are on the level of covid19 vaccines with microchips. People need to give their head a wobble.
Do people genuinely believe that Russia are trying to hide this and that US intelligence agencies have spooked them? I think it must have been the work of Trump if so, foiling the deep state with his extreme genius.
Give an example of one classified leak that may have made Putin rethink anything please.
There are tests for sociopaths but it’s a slippery slope, isn’t? Especially since, if I understand it correctly, it’s more of a spectrum rather than a binary yes-or-no kind of thing.
They are obviously disrupting his ability to attack since they are influencing the media space and in the process depriving him of using his hybrid ops approach to invade - specifically stoking propaganda as a pretext for a false flag operation and subsequent invasion.
Large explosion in Luhansk, seems to be a gas pipeline that has gone up.
Friday night in the US and EU would be an ideal time to kick it off since the media cycle goes into hybernation for the weekend.
I don't believe there's any evidence to suggest that this would slow him down. The false flag is to create jus ad belli internally, where he is in control of the narrative.
His external narrative has been for months: "Let me bully you or bad things might happen to Ukraine." - That is still his external narrative.
Whereas within Russia it has been "Not much chance of war, but NATO are bullying us." This is what the false flag is for.
Seems to be exactly what the Ukrainian defense ministry warned about a few hours ago.
You don't need evidence, you just need some basic background on how hybrid ops work to know that they have been effective. That's not to say they will prevent an invasion, since it appears Putin appears hellbent on reclaiming Ukraine for his warped post-Soviet view of a Russian sphere of influence.
Queue "It was Ukranian saboteurs" in 3..2..1..
If the 'leaked intelligence' (sorry for quotations but its in the loosest possible terms) isn't making him rethink anything or slowing him down, then it's not effective. And the hybrid ops are proceeding as planned.
There's nothing to suggest he gives a feck about the audience outside russia wrt that node.
@harms Could you please keep an eye on any possible intention to:
1. call up reserves
2. Mandate health emergency staff to military positions
3. require extra border controls for Israeli citizens
And let us know here if any happen. Thanks!
1. call up reserves
2. Mandate health emergency staff to military positions
3. require extra border controls for Israeli citizens
And let us know here if any happen. Thanks!
The point is they were disruptive to his plans which has bought additional time for negotiations. And he does care about global opinion (especially in Europe) because he knows its not in his best interests to be framed as a pariah because it would prevent him from doing future business in Europe since its a major market for Russian exports
He did — not for service but for military exercises. He does it every year apparently (not sure about the numbers), but Putin did sign the notion just a few hours ago. Probably just a coincidence...
There are 5 points in that notion, 2 of them are classified.
Hopefully they’ll send some more helmets.
I've asked you how they disrupted his plans though. Specifically the assertion that "uncovering the possibility that Russia may use a false flag for justifying war and leaking that intelligece."
I've seen no evidence to suggest
a) it's in any way altered timetables, and haven't seen any serious reads to that effect either.
b) It was ever intented for the consumption of 'Westerners' or to fool them, given how openly he's placed troops there and how well reported its been.
As for the bold, he knew from day one that invading Ukraine would cause some serious side effects.
We may just disagree on this point!
He did — not for service but for military exercises. He does it every year apparently (not sure about the numbers), but Putin did sign the notion just a few hours ago. Probably just a coincidence...
There are 5 points in that notion, 2 of them are classified.
That's not good. Because my Russian is trash translate please:
#1 calls them up for training exercises?
2/3 are classified
#4 puts them under the authority of the executive whilst in those training sessions?
edit: Do you have last years letter, or the ones historically? Do they read the same?
Biden is speaking:
Eh...not really though, are they?