Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
Obviously, because the Russians have more air power and SAMs than they do and are using it to indiscriminately bomb civilians.
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Well I'm not arguing how they achieve it or the morals but the fact that there are some fairy tale stories of Ukraine resistance that I don't think is too true.
 
shamans said:
Well I'm not arguing how they achieve it or the morals but the fact that there are some fairy tale stories of Ukraine resistance that I don't think is too true.
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You keep moving the goal post. You’re right, there are fairy tale stories which are most like exaggeration or plain false. But your original notion that this is a cake walk is thankfully factually refuted. And whilst Russia has air superiority, to me “complete” air superiority suggests the Russian Air Force can do whatever they want, move where they want, can transport things airially unharmed. I don’t think it’s quite at that stage yet.

I think Russia eventually “winning” against the Ukrainian military is a very likely outcome. But I do dispute your notion that it’s going plain sailing. Whether it makes much of a difference I don’t know.
 
shamans said:
In terms of war, yes a cake walk. Russia currently has total air superiority. They are not facing more resistance than expected -- Ukraine is a country with a military and they knew well there would be the odd loss of tanks and helicopters.

The military strength of the two is not comparable at all.
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The military strength of the two doesn't need to be comparable because against a determined defence the attackers will lose personnel at a much higher rate than the defenders, and this imbalance of losses will be hugely magnified when it comes to actually trying to take a well-defended city ... as the Germans discovered at Stalingrad. And all the while, more anti-Russian fighters return/pour into Ukraine, along with more anti-armour missiles, drones and anti-aircraft missiles.

Moreover, it's pretty clear that Russian losses far exceed just "the odd loss of tanks and helicopters". And the longer it continues, the more Russian re-supply issues - food, fuel, ammunition, medical supplies - will mount.

They are also in a country where they are surrounded by a large and deeply hostile civilian population.

My prediction is that the Russians will fail to take Kiev and fail to occupy more than one-third of Ukraine.
 
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RedDevilQuebecois said:
He was in China before that. Go figure why he didn't stay there.
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China is far worse. The people there have no liberties whatsoever. If Obama/Trump wanted him they would have sold him quite happily. Putin only protected Snowden to use him in his anti-West propaganda.

Before obtaining asylum he could only go to a country that lacks an extradition treaty with the US. And most of the democracies actually have treaties with the US. I think he really expected France or Germany to step up and welcome him, many politicians have said he should be granted asylum but his application was rejected by France (when he was still in Hongkong) and that meant he couldn't apply for it in Schengen countries after that.
 
rpitroda said:
So, you’re against sanctions? What should we be doing then? I’m choosing to ignore your ridiculous assertion that western media is equivalent in terms of impartiality as Russian state TV.
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Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
 
Roger said:
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
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Someone's been drinking from the Russian propaganda fountain.
 
Roger said:
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
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Do you support the invasion of Ukraine?
 
Roger said:
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
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Sanctions will ultimately topple Putin because he doesn't have the means to survive the suffocating sanctions the EU and NATO have imposed on him. The line that Putin will simply pivot to China line will not work since a vast majority of financial messaging takes place over SWIFT. The Russian economy is about to face a deep depression and Putin is powerless to stop it.
 
Roger said:
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
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You are absolutely right, of course.

Just yesterday I was on the metro and this crazy dumbass was shouting on loudspeaker (no mask on, of course), that she'd read a bit of Russian literature, the Ukrainians were fascists and racists because they weren't letting foreign students out of the country and that it was all conspiracy.

And completely on point with your assertions, she was arrested by police as soon as she exited the train, just like Russia. This last bit of course is not true because I don't live in Putin's despotic Russia.

As for your other points, the Russian public has been happy to live under Putin for years. He's done plenty of vile things but they just got on with it (not all but most, implicitly or explicitly). Now it's hitting them directly and we're supposed to feel sorry for them? At what point does a nation have to stand up and take accountability?
 
rpitroda said:
You keep moving the goal post. You’re right, there are fairy tale stories which are most like exaggeration or plain false. But your original notion that this is a cake walk is thankfully factually refuted. And whilst Russia has air superiority, to me “complete” air superiority suggests the Russian Air Force can do whatever they want, move where they want, can transport things airially unharmed. I don’t think it’s quite at that stage yet.

I think Russia eventually “winning” against the Ukrainian military is a very likely outcome. But I do dispute your notion that it’s going plain sailing. Whether it makes much of a difference I don’t know.
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I don't know what your definition is of a cake walk. It's a war against an established country so no one expected Russia to just walk in there without any resistance. In the grand scheme of things the thing that is hurting Russia is economic sanctions and being cutoff from the globe. Ukraine's military or defenses will not bother them in the least.
 
shamans said:
I don't know what your definition is of a cake walk. It's a war against an established country so no one expected Russia to just walk in there without any resistance. In the grand scheme of things the thing that is hurting Russia is economic sanctions and being cutoff from the globe. Ukraine's military or defenses will not bother them in the least.
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The last bit clearly isn't true. If anything, the Russian military has proven itself to be incompetent in terms of logistics and its ability to follow a coherent strategy, at a time when it has a clear advantage in terms of weaponry. It has now switched tactics to indiscriminately attacking civilians, which is a sign of weakness that will lead to its demise (as well as that of Putin's within Russia).
 
Roger said:
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
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Where do you think the money comes from to finance the Russian war machine? Where do you think the money will come from for Russia to replace lost/destroyed military equipment, replenish supplies of missile, bombs, shells etc.

The answer is that comes from taxes on the Russian economy and profits from state-owned enterprises. That economy is tanking - in 6 months from now, if not sooner, it will be on the verge of collapse. Unemployment will sky-rocket, inflation will be rampant, GDP will shrink massively. Closer economic ties will China will not prevent this - indeed, it's doubtful that China will want to get more involved with an economic basket-case.

This sanctions now being applied - completely unprecedented in scale and scope - will hurt Russian military power badly.

As for the laughable notion that "western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media": in the West there are multiple sources of news and information, thousands of different radio and TV stations, hundreds of different newspapers and news-magazines, and generally uncensored access to the internet.

In Russia, there is now just one, monolithic source of news - the gangster-regime of Putin. No independent TV, radio or newspapers. And no free access to the internet except for those clever enough to find work-arounds via VPN.

It's bad that ordinary Russians will suffer. But there is just one man to blame for this - the dictator Putin.
 
GlastonSpur said:
The military strength of the two doesn't need to be comparable because against a determined defence the attackers will lose personnel at a much higher rate than the defenders, and this imbalance of losses will be hugely magnified when it comes to actually trying to take a well-defended city ... as the Germans discovered at Stalingrad. And all the while, more anti-Russian fighters return/pour into Ukraine, along with more anti-armour missiles, drones and anti-aircraft missiles.

Moreover, it's pretty clear that Russian losses far exceed just "the odd loss of tanks and helicopters". And the longer it continues, the more Russian re-supply issues - food, fuel, ammunition, medical supplies - will mount.

They are also in a country where they are surrounded by a large and deeply hostile civilian population.

My prediction is that the Russians will fail to take Kiev and fail to occupy more than one-third of Ukraine.
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While it is true that the attacking military force will suffer more losses I don't think you can compare the siege of Stalingrad by a starving disease ridden German army dressed in summer clothing, with what's happening in Ukraine. We are only speculating on Russian losses but we can be sure they are being under reported by the state run and controller Russian. media.

I am very sceptical at claims from either side. I don't think the Russian military have the resources to occupy a huge country like Ukraine and as you say they face a country surrounded by a hostile civilian population. I don't see that as part of the Russian plan. My guess, and it's only a guess is for the Russians to create a new neutral area, effectively a buffer zone to protect the Russian border against the further eastern expansion of NATO that would include hostile troops and nukes sitting on the Russian border.
 
Raoul said:
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The ukraine map looks pretty accurate, at least looking at the reports. Kharkov doesn't seem as stressed as it did days ago but Melitopol seems without any options.
There is a piece of land occupied by Ukraine but surrounded. I wonder if any offensive to occupy that bank of the Dnieper would be possible, from Nikopol to Energodar, or from Zaporizhia, if they have taken the power station and are in a position to advance
 
shamans said:
I don't know what your definition is of a cake walk. It's a war against an established country so no one expected Russia to just walk in there without any resistance. In the grand scheme of things the thing that is hurting Russia is economic sanctions and being cutoff from the globe. Ukraine's military or defenses will not bother them in the least.
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If only half of Ukraine's claims are true, the Russian military has taken a big hit whilst invading Ukraine.
 
Rightnr said:
You are absolutely right, of course.

Just yesterday I was on the metro and this crazy dumbass was shouting on loudspeaker (no mask on, of course), that she'd read a bit of Russian literature, the Ukrainians were fascists and racists because they weren't letting foreign students out of the country and that it was all conspiracy.

And completely on point with your assertions, she was arrested by police as soon as she exited the train, just like Russia. This last bit of course is not true because I don't live in Putin's despotic Russia.

As for your other points, the Russian public has been happy to live under Putin for years. He's done plenty of vile things but they just got on with it (not all but most, implicitly or explicitly). Now it's hitting them directly and we're supposed to feel sorry for them? At what point does a nation have to stand up and take accountability?
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Most haven't been happy. They don't have a choice. I personally agree with sanctions, the alternatives are worse. It is either sitting on the side while ukrainians get slaughtered or go into a far more destructive war. But I can't help feeling for the population in Russia that will suffer from these necessary sanctions.

When the democraticly elected western government commits war crimes after war crimes around the word, it is not the fault of those who elected them. People who voted for Tony Blair certainly didn't do that because they wanted him to send his army and bomb the hell out of the iraqi people. And most aren't even aware of the UK's role in the ongoing Yemeni war... Blaming the populations for what their leaders do is disgusting and very dangerous.
 
carvajal said:
The ukraine map looks pretty accurate, at least looking at the reports. Kharkov doesn't seem as stressed as it did days ago but Melitopol seems without any options.
There is a piece of land occupied by Ukraine but surrounded. I wonder if any offensive to occupy that bank of the Dnieper would be possible, from Nikopol to Energodar, or from Zaporizhia, if they have taken the power station and are in a position to advance
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The map on the bottom tweet is probably more accurate imo, since the Russians don't have the manpower to hold territory because their forces have to move on to the next location to continue going deeper into Ukraine. Most people have been led to believe that the map on the top tweet is the accurate one, which is misleading imo.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Where do you think the money comes from to finance the Russian war machine? Where do you think the money will come from for Russia to replace lost/destroyed military equipment, replenish supplies of missile, bombs, shells etc.

The answer is that comes from taxes on the Russian economy and profits from state-owned enterprises. That economy is tanking - in 6 months from now, if not sooner, it will be on the verge of collapse. Unemployment will sky-rocket, inflation will be rampant, GDP will shrink massively. Closer economic ties will China will not prevent this - indeed, it's doubtful that China will want to get more involved with an economic basket-case.

This sanctions now being applied - completely unprecedented in scale and scope - will hurt Russian military power badly.

As for the laughable notion that "western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media": in the West there are multiple sources of news and information, thousands of different radio and TV stations, hundreds of different newspapers and news-magazines, and generally uncensored access to the internet.

In Russia, there is now just one, monolithic source of news - the gangster-regime of Putin. No independent TV, radio or newspapers. And no free access to the internet except for those clever enough to find work-arounds via VPN.

It's bad that ordinary Russians will suffer. But there is just one man to blame for this - the dictator Putin.
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shamans said:
I don't know what your definition is of a cake walk. It's a war against an established country so no one expected Russia to just walk in there without any resistance. In the grand scheme of things the thing that is hurting Russia is economic sanctions and being cutoff from the globe. Ukraine's military or defenses will not bother them in the least.
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Then why have the Russians been so hesitant to commit more of their air force to the war? Because they keep getting shot down (apparently 44 planes, 44 helicopters). If they are so unbothered, why are they resorting to indiscriminate bombardment of civilians from afar? Why can't they get a single column from the border to Kyiv?

Russia wouldn't be leveling cities and murdering civilians if things were going well.
 
Pintu said:
Most haven't been happy. They don't have a choice. I personally agree with sanctions, the alternatives are worse. It is either sitting on the side while ukrainians get slaughtered or go into a far more destructive war. But I can't help feeling for the population in Russia that will suffer from these necessary sanctions.

When the democraticly elected western government commits war crimes after war crimes around the word, it is not the fault of those who elected them. People who voted for Tony Blair certainly didn't do that because they wanted him to send his army and bomb the hell out of the iraqi people. And most aren't even aware of the UK's role in the ongoing Yemeni war... Blaming the populations for what their leaders do is disgusting and very dangerous.
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No one knows what people would do when they get into office but they sure as hell know what they've done when they vote for them again. So, from that point of view, people in democracies certainly have responsibility. If they decide to close their eyes to it, that's still on them and no amount of adjectives like 'disgusting' changes that truth.

As for Russia, the truth of the matter is that there are no ways for people to express their opinion except for widespread discontent on a scale that it simply cannot be ignored. To get to that point, you need the everyday person to feel the heat. Again, you go on about preaching but this the reality of it, just like the reality that women and children, on top of their fathers, sons and brothers are getting killed in Ukraine because he wanted his empire back.

I just need to state this clearly, I don't want people in Russia to be punished but short of all-out war, the West is out of options.
 
Roger said:
While it is true that the attacking military force will suffer more losses I don't think you can compare the siege of Stalingrad by a starving disease ridden German army dressed in summer clothing, with what's happening in Ukraine. We are only speculating on Russian losses but we can be sure they are being under reported by the state run and controller Russian. media.

I am very sceptical at claims from either side. I don't think the Russian military have the resources to occupy a huge country like Ukraine and as you say they face a country surrounded by a hostile civilian population. I don't see that as part of the Russian plan. My guess, and it's only a guess is for the Russians to create a new neutral area, effectively a buffer zone to protect the Russian border against the further eastern expansion of NATO that would include hostile troops and nukes sitting on the Russian border.
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This has never been about creating a military buffer zone. It is only about trying to crush the notion of freedom, democracy, and sovereign statehood independent of Russia - because this is what Putin fears will otherwise infect - via Ukraine - the Russian people. It's about power and control vs freedom and democracy - nothing else.

Nor is it about NATO "expansion", as if NATO was marching eastward and conquering nations as it goes. Instead it's about sovereign nations voluntarily applying to join NATO in order to better protect themselves from Putin's tyranny.

The irony is, of course, that what will emerge from this is a Ukraine that is more pro-West than ever, even if it has less territory. Eventually, however long it takes, this Ukraine will join the EU and NATO. It's an historical inevitability.
 
Rightnr said:
No one knows what people would do when they get into office but they sure as hell know what they've done when they vote for them again. So, from that point of view, people in democracies certainly have responsibility. If they decide to close their eyes to it, that's still on them and no amount of adjectives like 'disgusting' changes that truth.

As for Russia, the truth of the matter is that there are no ways for people to express their opinion except for widespread discontent on a scale that it simply cannot be ignored. To get to that point, you need the everyday person to feel the heat. Again, you go on about preaching but this the reality of it, just like the reality that women and children, on top of their fathers, sons and brothers are getting killed in Ukraine because he wanted his empire back.

I just need to state this clearly, I don't want people in Russia to be punished but short of all-out war, the West is out of options.
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I agree that people have some responsibilty, but equating it with that of an executive leader is what I find shocking. It is border on appology for violence against civilians.

People in office sit on confidential information that we simply do not have access to. All we can do is to trust their judgment and trust the system to keep them from abusing power. There is no candidate who's going to tick all your boxes. We can only compare the offers that parties are putting in front of us and prioritise some issues over other issues. Unfortunately Foreign policy is seldom relevant when the typical taxpayer in a Western country votes on election day. I think it is the justice system that should punish leaders when they abuse power.

As long as you agree that random civilian people in Russia don't deserve to be punished for Putin's actions we are not totally at odds.
 
Rightnr said:
You are absolutely right, of course.

Just yesterday I was on the metro and this crazy dumbass was shouting on loudspeaker (no mask on, of course), that she'd read a bit of Russian literature, the Ukrainians were fascists and racists because they weren't letting foreign students out of the country and that it was all conspiracy.

And completely on point with your assertions, she was arrested by police as soon as she exited the train, just like Russia. This last bit of course is not true because I don't live in Putin's despotic Russia.

As for your other points, the Russian public has been happy to live under Putin for years. He's done plenty of vile things but they just got on with it (not all but most, implicitly or explicitly). Now it's hitting them directly and we're supposed to feel sorry for them? At what point does a nation have to stand up and take accountability?
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Reminds me of a quote from the BBC series "The World at War", where one German said the country had made a deal with Hitler like you would with a gangster, so long as they benefited they would support him. IIRC the person seemed to have a sense the German population bore responsibility, like the Russians do here.
 
Sir Matt said:
Then why have the Russians been so hesitant to commit more of their air force to the war? Because they keep getting shot down (apparently 44 planes, 44 helicopters). If they are so unbothered, why are they resorting to indiscriminate bombardment of civilians from afar? Why can't they get a single column from the border to Kyiv?

Russia wouldn't be leveling cities and murdering civilians if things were going well.
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Logically, it doesn't add up to me.

Wikipedia aggregates death tolls from news sources. It currently shows 498 Russian soldiers killed and 110 Ukrainian Soldiers. US estimates have 5.8k Russians killed to 1.2k Ukrainians. Look at equipment losses etc and Russia seems to be losing more than double the amount of Ukraine.

... yet, they're occupying more and more land? It doesn't add up to me. Russia is just too big to be compared to Ukraine. Without any foreign help, it just isn't a competition. I think the reporting of Russians "resorting" to civilian bombardment is a bit misleading because they'd probably do that anyway.

Again, I think the real issue for Russia are these sanctions and crippling of economy. Militarily, I don't think they will worry (as long as it's just Ukraine)
 
shamans said:
Logically, it doesn't add up to me.

Wikipedia aggregates death tolls from news sources. It currently shows 498 Russian soldiers killed and 110 Ukrainian Soldiers. US estimates have 5.8k Russians killed to 1.2k Ukrainians. Look at equipment losses etc and Russia seems to be losing more than double the amount of Ukraine.

... yet, they're occupying more and more land? It doesn't add up to me. Russia is just too big to be compared to Ukraine. Without any foreign help, it just isn't a competition. I think the reporting of Russians "resorting" to civilian bombardment is a bit misleading because they'd probably do that anyway.

Again, I think the real issue for Russia are these sanctions and crippling of economy. Militarily, I don't think they will worry (as long as it's just Ukraine)
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Except that Putin's military campaign is dependent by the amount of pressure he feels to stablize his regime domestically. The two are interdependent on one another.
 
shamans said:
Logically, it doesn't add up to me.

Wikipedia aggregates death tolls from news sources. It currently shows 498 Russian soldiers killed and 110 Ukrainian Soldiers. US estimates have 5.8k Russians killed to 1.2k Ukrainians. Look at equipment losses etc and Russia seems to be losing more than double the amount of Ukraine.

... yet, they're occupying more and more land? It doesn't add up to me. Russia is just too big to be compared to Ukraine. Without any foreign help, it just isn't a competition. I think the reporting of Russians "resorting" to civilian bombardment is a bit misleading because they'd probably do that anyway.

Again, I think the real issue for Russia are these sanctions and crippling of economy. Militarily, I don't think they will worry (as long as it's just Ukraine)
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Even if there are no nato troops on the ground, the weapons, training and especially the intel is invaluable. Knowing exactly where, when and how many Russians are coming helps the Ukrainians that much more. Plus there are way too many examples of mistakes being made by the Russians leadership
 
shamans said:
Logically, it doesn't add up to me.

Wikipedia aggregates death tolls from news sources. It currently shows 498 Russian soldiers killed and 110 Ukrainian Soldiers. US estimates have 5.8k Russians killed to 1.2k Ukrainians. Look at equipment losses etc and Russia seems to be losing more than double the amount of Ukraine.

... yet, they're occupying more and more land? It doesn't add up to me. Russia is just too big to be compared to Ukraine. Without any foreign help, it just isn't a competition. I think the reporting of Russians "resorting" to civilian bombardment is a bit misleading because they'd probably do that anyway.

Again, I think the real issue for Russia are these sanctions and crippling of economy. Militarily, I don't think they will worry (as long as it's just Ukraine)
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The Russians' initial intent was to orchestrate some fast coup by sending in troops to Kyiv and carrying out precision strikes to knock out Ukraine's air defenses. They failed both of those completely. Their detachments sent into Kyiv early on were destroyed. Russia may have some control of the skies, particularly in Eastern Ukraine, but they don't have complete air dominance. If they did, they'd be using it across Ukraine. Since Ukrainian air defenses remain at least partially intact, Russia is highly restricted in where they can fly.

Russia has lost more materiel because it's an invading force against Ukrainians defending their homeland, their logistics suck, and most of their equipment is very dated. Additionally, their military planning and maintenance of said equipment seems to be deficient with all of the trucks getting stuck, breaking down, running out of fuel, etc. Lots of equipment losses by Russia are because their vehicles are stuck, abandoned, or isolated. The Ukrainians only need smaller groups who can move quickly, launch some Stingers/Javelins and move.

Based on reading tweets from actual military academics, there's doubt about whether Russia even has the forces to effectively encircle Kyiv, much less control the rest of Ukraine. Russia has committed 95% of their forces to Ukraine. There aren't hundreds of thousands more troops ready to deploy or equipment to support them. Videos from inside Russia show them moving ancient equipment from the far east, which doesn't bode well for their effectiveness if they are brought into service.
 
shamans said:
Look at equipment losses etc and Russia seems to be losing more than double the amount of Ukraine.

... yet, they're occupying more and more land? It doesn't add up to me.
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That’s pretty standard in warfare. The rule of thumb for attacking a prepared position is that you will need a 3:1 numerical advantage to make up for, among other things, higher losses due to having to expose yourself to fire in order to advance.
 
Roger said:
So the Russian military is funded in exactly the same way it is in the UK and every other country, through tax payers. Unless some western countries raise the revenue by sending out vast numbers of the public, with rattling tins. I don't see the point you are attempting to make. It might have escaped your attention but the western economies ravaged by 2 years of Covid are not in a very healthy position themselves. Claiming that the Russian economy is tanking just not true. Its GDP has increased albeit by a small amount in the period 2020-2021 and is forecast to reach 1943.78 billion dollars by 2026 an increase in growth of 465 billion dollars. Pretty unremarkable. An economy in decline, perhaps, but certainly not tanking by any stretch of the imagination. In additional Russias national debt is peanuts compared to the US debt which currently stands at 23. 3 trillion dollars, that's over $90,000 for every man, women and child living in the USA.

I've never seen sanctions shoot a plane out the sky or stop a bullet or a missile. Just wait until the Russians hit Europes national gas supplies. People in the UK are already facing £3000 a year energy prices and rapidly increasing food prices. I wonder how enthusiastic their support for Ukraine will last when they cant afford to heat their homes or start going hungry. Nice to see you couldn't care less about the effect of sanctions and the suffering it might impose on the Russian people. Sanctions imposed by the West not Putin.

I challenged you to give examples of give some examples of the impartially of the western media and instead of doing that you tap dance around the issue and list the myriad of relatively insignificant western media outlets with little or no influence on mass public opinion. The overwhelming majority of the population get their information from the BBC, ITV, Sky, Fox News, CNN news and and newspapers owned by huge multinational corporations. This is what shapes public opinion. Self censorship may be much smarter than Putins state control but every bit as deceptive and it is naivety in the extreme to think otherwise.

So Putin is a gangster, no shit Sherlock! No need for the bold script. Unless it was for your benefit. Didn't stop the west doing business with him for all these years did it. Putin has so much in common with the corrupt motley crew we have here mis-managing our interests and all the while enabling Putin and his cronies, looking the other way while they launder Russian money plundered from the pockets of ordinary Russian people.

You may choose to take sides in this conflict that is your business I chose to withhold my support for the corrupt protagonists. They started this war not the Russian or Ukrainian people.
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hobbers said:
Losing 5000 soldiers out of 1m or whatever they have might not phase Putin. But losing 5 fighter jets a day might. They only have a few hundred of them.
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Its pure humiliation for Putin, which is not coincidentally why he's switching tactics and going after civilians. This entire war feels like it was done on an emotional whim with little to no planning. No wonder the Russians seem to be getting beaten back.
 
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