I’m guessing some people will know who Bald and Bankrupt is on YouTube. He was in Ukraine in the days leading up to the invasion. His latest blog shows his experience getting out of the country.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
A part of me thinks that Russia has yet to send out their elite forces which is the element that is one step ahead of everyone Bar US and maybe China. How much of their entire military force constitute though we don't know. Could just be only 10% of what they have and the rest of it has just been poorly maintained and outdated. Would make sense they don't want to show their hand yet because Putin greatly underestimated Ukraine's resistance. We'll see as this war drags on.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083...talled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says
It's not a random twitter message. Quite a few reputable sources have said US Intelligence has said the convoy has stalled. It hasn't moved in a day or two, I doubt thats on purpose
Another possibility is that it's a strategic threatening pause. There's an awful lot of death on the way in that convoy. It's not just the Putin playbook but a pressure tactic of yore to ramp up threat to the max to bend the enemy's will before they enter the negotiating room.
Vlad the Incompetent.
Very likely. However, I do not see where the negotiations could lead. It is a deadlock.
My tired eyes read that as Vlad the incontinent
I think the hope from the russian side is something along the lines of:
It's clear NATO won't commit troops
It's clear there won't be a no fly zone
We have the artilliaty in place to destroy Kyiv and kill a lot of people
So give us east of the river and the coastline or we destroy Kyiv and kill zelenskiy before we come back next week with the artilliaty around dinpro and ask the same.
I'm not sure I see many leaders facing what's coming not agreeing to whatever just to stop the impending massacre
I wouldn't hold your breath that it will be completed anytime soon, Russia (Gazprom) have been getting involved (on both sides) to try and cancel the project.
Hard to know how true this is, if this happens it would only be due to the effect of the Indian diaspora and not due to any goodwill towards the Indian government or policy-makers. Think the Indian government should provide some humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, even if it was token, as the world's largest democracy.
With that said, no one in the West cares about Pakistan anymore after Bin Laden, apart from the fact they have nukes. Any intervention from the West in an India-Pakistan conflict would likely be along the lines of trying to stop any nuclear conflict from occurring.
I believe this is true. Which basically means we are not any closer to resolution.
BTW NYT’s The Daily podcast had one yesterday where they interviewed three Ukrainian men who had to stay in the country as they were in the 18-60. The conversation with the first two are particularly harrowing, just regular folk who never intended to participate in any war, had regular everyday jobs in marketing/art. The second one wanted to flee but got to the border too late, I can’t imagine what these people must be going through.
Also the image of a woman having to part with her husband because they wouldn’t let him out anymore is something I cannot erase from my mind either.
Yeah, I agree it sounds like nonsense. Russia could sweep across the Ukraine and destroy all resistance in a matter of days if that was their plan, but they obviously don't want to just kill everyone and destroy everything if they don't need to.
It's more likely a threat, surely.
No chance
The nazifier was thinking that he could just roll over. He underestimated Ukraine's resources and determination. He was also probably hoping to see more welcome from general population. Heavy bombardment to destroy everyone has never been the plan. Now he is in a deadlock. If he goes ahead all guns blazing, there will be many thousands dead and probably even tougher sanctions. Stepping back is not an option either as sanctions are just kicking in, Russia is turning into a pariah state while it's economy is bleeding heavily already.
They took Kherson (a large city in the South) and they completed the siege of Mariupol (by meeting the forces of the DPR in the East and completing the land-bridge to Crimea). No substantial gains in the north apart from bombing Kiev and Kharkiv and some minor advnaces around Kharkiv.
Yet it took a massive sway of public opinion against him and his party's shocking immigration stance with regard to refugees before he eventually gave in?
That column is as much an occupation force as an invasion force. It's full of non motorised supply packages and logistics trucks, it's an MSR. Russia had expected their first wave to meet with little resistance, complete the invasion and then move all the equipment down to start the occupation.
That hasn't happened so that column has had to pause there whilst the main invasion force changes approach to one of artillery and aerial bombardment. Once they feel the Ukrainian forces are sufficiently depleted they will have a second try at moving into Kyiv, and only once that's complete will that column start to move.
There are obviously problems with Russian logistics but I'm not convinced that's why the column has stalled.
I think there is a probability of the West thinking the opposition to Putin is much stronger than it actually is. The media loves the stories about demonstrations and Russians wanting the leave the country, but in reality I expect the general population still very much believes what the media and Putin tells them.
I mean, the man turns 70 this year...
Depends on Putin end game. If this war continues for a year or two he can take it all. This of course is economical suicide and I don't believe he'll commit to that.
Most likely his game is to overthrow the government and take the East.
don't think they can even continue for a few months honestly
Cities with tanks in their streets are also very vulnerable.
Hassling the Russians with urban guerrilla involves a freaking harsh civilian sacrifice.
not playing devil’s advocate but how many more days do russia need to survive whilst still invading before the majority of westerners shift their focus elsewhere and largely forget about it? the bbc website is still very dominated by the war, as are the new channels, except when the sky presenter smiles and says “now for a quick look at the weather.”
but how long before other stories start to filter to the top of the page?
but how long before other stories start to filter to the top of the page?
Just wondering whether China sees this as an opportunity from a commercial/economical perspective to gain a foothold in Russia. With the Oil companies pulling out, talks of apple pullng out and countless others commercial companies, it's probably more ideal than ever for China to push its products, currency, economic tools etc in Russia with the Western companies suspending their activities.
I think as long as this remains a large-scale conventional kind of war and Kyiv holds (largest foreign press presence), it'll remain big news. The moment it turns into an insurgency we'll see this fizzle out.
Yep, it’s already happening, where we are slipping from 100% news coverage. War fatigue is real, which is a point I made a few days ago.
Putin doesn’t have to make huge gains or even take Kyiv to achieve a paralysing grip on Ukraine. Get the land corridor between Crimea and Donbas, then bed in. Just annexing Crimea, and having Donetsk and Luhansk disputed with the key cities and road controlled, while the rest of the country is drained by war is enough. It might have come at a huge cost to Russia, but Ukraine in that condition has lost much of its power and function.
As soon as it gets to a stalemate, the news coverage will gradually erode.
This is a very likely scenario. There are two questions though. How will Russia pay? Their economy is plummeting. Will it mean that Chinese companies will be sanctioned in Western markets due to their support to Russia?
They'll announce the queen's death and everyone will forget Ukraine even exists
It won't anytime soon, unless something else major happens. If Kharkiv falls, that's gonna gain some traction, eyes will be on siege of Kyiv and news developing there.
Feels pretty hot to me.
they move on every few months. Last time out it was Afghanistan and the return of Taliban. Israel and Palestine a few months back. They were focusing on Yemen before. Then it was Syria before that.
It should be noted that Russian oil companies are shite at the whole exploration/extraction part of the industry, they rely on the likes of Exxon.
They will sign a strategic partnership with CNPC. Both sides will be very happy. Again the question is how will Russia pay?
There are now people from all over Europe joining the fight voluntarily. Over 100 from the UK alone after what I read. Read about many joining from Finland, Sweden and Norway too. This is going to be covered hard as long as there is a fight I think.
that’s my feeling too. once the likes of murdoch have worked out how to maximise their profits from the war and the sanctions they’ll be happy for something else major to happen to take the front page and then replace it with something else that fits their narrative better than the war afterwards.
Cry more.