Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Enigma_87 said:
Alternative sources and fuel. It will create price spikes, but that's due to EU itself for making themselves dependent on Russia so much.
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Unfortunately alternative solutions are not something that can be done in a couple of weeks. There's going to be at least 5 cold winters before any decent infrastructure is built to supply the amount of energy needed.

Or the EU could buy US gas for 30% more. Which will probably happen. EU will be much worse off for it though.
 
Waiting to see signs of panic buying and huge queues at Supermarkets in Russia to see if sanctions are making any difference. Not holding my breath
 
Wibble said:
Move on. Childish name calling doesn't advance the discussion and are just a distraction. If anything we are saving you from failing at the first hurdle due to Godwin's Law.
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You've seriously put an auto-correct on the forum to spell Putin's name correctly? :lol:
 
do.ob said:
In Germany our minister for economic affairs and climate action climate action has announced that his office will be exploring whether or not it makes sense to delay the scheduled withdrawal from coal and nuclear power. Which is quite the statement, considering he's from the green party.
Last time they were part of the government they got dragged into the Afghanistan war and this time around they already had to show willingness to compromise three of their core topics (arms, nuclear energy and coal).

On the other hand I've read that the country's gas reserves are sufficient to last until next winter and they are going to build new terminals to be able to accept deliveries from other countries via ship. So maybe German dependence on Russian gas is less of an issue than first feared.


In general I saw a map that tries to quantify Europe's dependance on Russian gas:



Maybe that could in part explain why Hungary refused to facilitate military shipments into Ukraine.
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It's very complex situation because for Germany it's not only to supply themselves. NS2 was generally key for them to be the main distributor and hub of gas for all Europe, which gives them a lot of benefits in both pricing and supply.

With Germany's green politics gas means (at least planned before) to move on from other energy sources so the consumption would likely be more in the next year or so. In terms of forecasts it really depends on many factors - climate and all that but it's ok to assume what you mentioned above. There are countries like Italy and Hungary however that are dependent a lot more so they will cry first and it's unlikely to receive gas from neighbors like Spain and France(or other type of energy), because those countries themselves might want to keep reserves in case of shortage in the current market.

As for the withdrawal of coal and nuclear power - this probably has to be done as an alternative (I think I read somewhere that in the last months coal consumption raised to about 37% in terms of use in Germany), which is probably 15% more than last year.

It's not only gas though. Both Ukraine and Russia are coal and crude oil suppliers to whole Europe and with significant percentage at that. On top of that you have fertilizers shortages which will cause spiral effect on many industries and agriculture.

All in all EU has to act fast and find alternative markets, even at higher prices at the moment with the idea of coming with more stable and long term solution to import energy from elsewhere.
 
Dante said:
It would be pragmatism rather than capitulation.

Europe might be able to tolerate a summer of record high energy prices. But would they able to do the same over a freezing winter where families and pensioners can no longer afford to heat their homes?

The current public outrage is being fuelled by seeing bombs exploding on TV. Assuming that Ukraine can eventually be quelled and civilians are no longer being killed in their dozens, I think we'll see eventually see a lot of western governments backing down from sanctions. If they don't, they'd be at serious risk of losing their next elections.

It's a distasteful thought, but that's the way the world works. It's also why Germany waited so long to make the decision on NS2. If they could have avoided it they would have, since it was never in their own best interest. The same principle applies to everyone else's sanctions (including the UK).

For precedent, just look at all the oil the world gets from Saudi Arabia. What they're doing in Yemen is arguably worse than Russia in Ukraine. And yet the world tolerates it.
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But what exactly is your scenario here? As far as I'm aware the import of "energy" from Russia has not been throttled yet, Germany just killed a project that could have increased it. So are you suggesting Putin will cut off the EU's supply? I found a statista article that suggests stopping the flow of gas would shave off nearly three percent of the Russian GDP. It's more of a double edged blade than a vise for Putin.

During incidents of the past the West seemed to have the attitude you described, but I think the attack Ukraine marks a stark change in how the West perceives and deals with Putin: when was the last time big country got sanctioned on this scale? A center left government deciding to (re-)arm Germany is also not a fleeting moment, it will probably be their legacy, it speaks to a certain lasting intent behind what's currently being done.

It's of course hypocritical, but Saudi Arabia and Yemen don't really matter to the West, because it's happening to non-white, non-christian people at the other end of the world. But Ukraine is happening at the doorstep of the EU and the perpetrator is now perceived as an actual threat to their countries. They can't got back to business as usual with Putin, because they have to assume that they'd just prop him up to start another war later.
 
the_cliff said:
Unfortunately alternative solutions are not something that can be done in a couple of weeks. There's going to be at least 5 cold winters before any decent infrastructure is built to supply the amount of energy needed.

Or the EU could buy US gas for 30% more. Which will probably happen. EU will be much worse off for it though.
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I don’t think we have the infrastructure for American gas. We need LNG terminals and Germany, Austria, Hungary do not have any terminals. It would take 2 to 3 years to get enough terminals ready and running. This supposing the US produces enough of it to compensate for the import form Russia.
 
the_cliff said:
Unfortunately alternative solutions are not something that can be done in a couple of weeks. There's going to be at least 5 cold winters before any decent infrastructure is built to supply the amount of energy needed.

Or the EU could buy US gas for 30% more. Which will probably happen. EU will be much worse off for it though.
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It will be tough no doubt. Prices will go up too, that is clear.

There is one wildcard - it will require a lot of diplomatic talks and infrastructure, but it's the only viable replacement of Russia. Some sanctions to be lifted, probably to increase tension between Europe and the States, alas it's the only, lets say major supplier that can completely displace Russia - Iran.
 
Pintu said:
I don’t think we have the infrastructure for American gas. We need LNG terminals and Germany, Austria, Hungary do not have any terminals. It would take 2 to 3 years to get enough terminals ready and running. This supposing the US produces enough of it to compensate for the import form Russia.
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Yeah that's what I thought. The ugly truth of the matter is Russia has a monopoly of gas especially for the current infrastructure of the EU.

Enigma_87 said:
It will be tough no doubt. Prices will go up too, that is clear.

There is one wildcard - it will require a lot of diplomatic talks and infrastructure, but it's the only viable replacement of Russia. Some sanctions to be lifted, probably to increase tension between Europe and the States, alas it's the only, lets say major supplier that can completely displace Russia - Iran.
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Infrastructure is still the problem. I do think this conflict will benefit Iran and sanctions will definitely be lifted, however, It still wouldn't be enough to meet Europe's needs (without the infrastructure).
 
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Raoul said:
Strange that the article itself doesn't seem to explain what's in the tweet title.
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Indeed, could be a Twitter meta title thing? Here's the paragraph on CBS website:

Given the durability of the Ukrainian resistance and its long history of pushing Russia back, the U.S. and Western powers do not believe that this will be a short war. The U.K. foreign secretary estimated it would be a 10-year war.

Lawmakers at the Capitol were told Monday it is likely to last 10, 15 or 20 years — and that ultimately, Russia will lose.
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Wibble said:
Move on. Childish name calling doesn't advance the discussion and are just a distraction. If anything we are saving you from failing at the first hurdle due to Godwin's Law.
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He asked I answered, so move on.
 
VorZakone said:
Indeed, could be a Twitter meta title thing? Here's the paragraph on CBS website:
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Interesting. Not sure if anyone can predict a precise length given the amount of moving variables that are changing on a daily basis. If for instance, there's an escalation involving NATO, the entire thing could be over within days.
 
Tragic



A captured Russian soldier tells about atrocities in his army - officers kill wounded soldiers, leave the dead on the battlefield, do not notify their relatives.
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the_cliff said:
Infrastructure is still the problem. I do think this conflict will benefit Iran and sanctions will definitely be lifted, however, It still wouldn't be enough to meet Europe's needs (without the infrastructure).
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It is, but it's the fastest solution in terms of infrastructure. There is already a connection between Azerbaijan and Italy which can be stretched to Chalous Basin. Generally the numbers behind the investment to connect Iran to Europe were quoted in the realms of NS2 (around 19 billion), which wouldn't be an issue for European investors to step in. It will take 2-3 years to complete, but it's the fastest more stable solution.

LNG won't help much as even if you arrange the supply you won't have the logistics and vessels to carry it out until good 5-10 years at the very least.
 
Raoul said:
Tragic





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This kind of video makes me pretty uncomfortable. We'd be outraged if it was coming from the other side because it's a PAW. It's also irresponsible from the person who took it/post it online. If I understand properly he seems to be calling a relative. If so, you can be sure the russian police will knock on their door in 20mn to make sure they don't tell anyone.

But yeah if true, it's absolutely tragic. We've seen so many soldiers that looked like kids, it makes me sick.
 
maximus419 said:
I think the days of any country trading with Russia, particularly for gas and oil are over. Unless they agree to a complete regime change and a more pro European stance, I see most of the world turning it's back on Russia for at least 20 years.
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Maybe in the long term but right now the gas will still flow as they need the money and the other side currently needs the gas
 
Pintu said:
I don’t think we have the infrastructure for American gas. We need LNG terminals and Germany, Austria, Hungary do not have any terminals. It would take 2 to 3 years to get enough terminals ready and running. This supposing the US produces enough of it to compensate for the import form Russia.
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Sines in Portugal has a LNG terminal with enough storage to feed whole europe, it could be doing that now if the french didnt boycotted a pipeline through Pyrenees
 
So what's the latest? Last I saw a day or so ago was that Berdiansk fell but the remaining cities were on the seesaw/fine.

Only peeped that a load more sanctions have come in/banning from organizations.
 
roseguy64 said:
So what's the latest? Last I saw a day or so ago was that Berdiansk fell but the remaining cities were on the seesaw/fine.

Only peeped that a load more sanctions have come in/banning from organizations.
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The only significant difference between yesterday and today is the Russians are starting to use airpower to drop more destructive ordinance on buildings in civilian neighborhoods.
 
Helder-Carvalho said:
Sines in Portugal has a LNG terminal with enough storage to feed whole europe, it could be doing that now if the french didnt boycotted a pipeline through Pyrenees
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Ok. Always some weird stuff going on in the south and ruining life for everyone else. :wenger:

But to be honest I don't think it would be enough, as Enigma said there aren't enough vessels to route gas with continuity from the US to Europe... It would probably take a few years and of course for a much-increased price.

Enigma_87 said:
LNG won't help much as even if you arrange the supply you won't have the logistics and vessels to carry it out until good 5-10 years at the very least.
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Helder-Carvalho said:
Sines in Portugal has a LNG terminal with enough storage to feed whole europe, it could be doing that now if the french didnt boycotted a pipeline through Pyrenees
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The Iberian peninsula is probably the safest in terms of supply of Gas due to the pipelines in North Africa.

The step pipeline would've been a blessing right now.
 
Stookie said:
If Ukraine falls what does the west do? Just leave it? Declare war? Help them? What a mess. Caused by one person.
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Nothing. There are sanctions that are designed to subvert Putin domestically, but beyond that nothing.

The time to take action would be before Ukraine falls, not after, but there is little appetite for escalating because of Putin's instability.
 
Pintu said:
I don’t think we have the infrastructure for American gas. We need LNG terminals and Germany, Austria, Hungary do not have any terminals. It would take 2 to 3 years to get enough terminals ready and running. This supposing the US produces enough of it to compensate for the import form Russia.
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Italy is planning to buy from Algeria, to restart some of the shutted fossil plants, and to ration energy for non-domestic players aka Draghi willing to be prepared before next Winter. I’m reading a lot of bs about these matters, without any source or legit info, just adding noise. It’s extremely difficult to have this sorted in 24-48-72 hours, yet it is being done much more at EU level than in the last 20 years… which is good… if we all survive vlad’s outburst.
 
Raoul said:
Nothing. There are sanctions that are designed to subvert Putin domestically, but beyond that nothing.

The time to take action would be before Ukraine falls, not after, but there is little appetite for escalating because of Putin's instability.
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Keep the sanctions up yes, but also Nato and the EU will increase their defence spending to a level that Putin could not possibly compete with. Any further military adventures would face being stopped at source. And economically he will be squeezed from both ends. It wouldn't help Ukraine of course, sadly that would have to wait.
 
Bepi said:
Italy is planning to buy from Algeria, to restart some of the shutted fossil plants, and to ration energy for non-domestic players aka Draghi willing to be prepared before next Winter. I’m reading a lot of bs about these matters, without any source or legit info, just adding noise. It’s extremely difficult to have this sorted in 24-48-72 hours, yet it is being done much more at EU level than in the last 20 years… which is good… if we all survive vlad’s outburst.
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Algeria will not be able to even replace 1/50 of the gas that Russia supplies. It could be possible when the pipeline between Nigeria and Algeria is complete but in the near future no way. 95% of Algeria's capability goes to Portugal and Spain and only fills 2/3 of their energy needs. It's a much wider problem than that and like @Enigma_87 mentioned, only Iran could probably feasibly fill such a void in the near future (by near future I mean within 3 years).
 
Ramshock said:
Most likely true, however they havent exactly been running a smooth operation so far.
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The Ukrainian president confirmed this morning that they had drones from Turkey but none of them are weapons, just intelligence only.
 
Stookie said:
If Ukraine falls what does the west do? Just leave it? Declare war? Help them? What a mess. Caused by one person.
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Nothing, Ukraine is our Jesus dying for the sins of the rest... They will suffer but they will exhaust Putin and possibly end up costing his regime its grip on power over there.
 
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