Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[T00lsh3d]

In principle they deserve protection. In reality, they are not standing for justice but simply using the justice system to enrich themselves and have the system favour the wealthy and corrupt. So I deplore it in principle and in reality they can go feck themselves.

It’s tough being a man of principles

That pipeline is a drop in the ocean now. Every day we move closer to a worldwide embago of everything to do with Russa.

Is there a definitive list of things now, it’s so hard to keep up with?
-petrochemicals companies (BP, Shell)
-Google, apple
-airlines
-freight companies
-banking
-media
Fully expect the weather to announce it’s no longer going to rain over Russia next

 

[Frosty]

 

[Sarni]

Are they actually counting on those soldiers never coming back and telling the truth?

 

[harms]

So there is a ban on calling Putin “Putin”? He’s obviously not on the same scale but I don’t get the reason for the automatic name change.

Name-calling doesn't usually lead to constructive discussion which is the point of this thread.

 

[berbatrick]

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-90-heavy-fires

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

He should challenge them to a game of hockey to settle matters. He's really good:

Can we Canadians send this guy to face him? The Kitchener-born boy is 57 years old right now and was known to always go after the other team's best players.

 

[do.ob]

If anything, it'll strengthen Russia's resolve to control the land based pipeline going through Ukraine.

Cutting off NS2 has made the invasion even more crucial to Putin, especially given the state of the economy.

At this point, it's annex or bust.

That pipeline you're talking about is the original Nord stream though?! With Germany at the end of it, who just killed NS2 and are building up their infrastructure to buy from other countries via the sea, as well as exploring options to move away from gas in general.

 

[MoskvaRed]

Name-calling doesn't usually lead to constructive discussion which is the point of this thread.

OK, I hadn’t used the phrase myself untiI I saw the ban and just used cyrillic text to be a dick. Anyway, he’s more Nikolai I than you know who: ageing autocrat, diplomatically isolated, army humiliated and (hopefully) heading for a fall.

 

[Frosty]

 

[stefan92]

There will always be a customer for oil and gas.

Sure, but the thing with a pipeline is, you can't just deliver to everyone, you can only deliver to those who are sitting at the end of it. If they don't want to use it anymore, the pipeline is worthless.

 

[harms]

So the Russians aren't opening their stock markets?
I'm assuming that's because they know it'll just tank and lower morale/confidence amongst the population?

Moscow Stock Market

Spoiler

 

[tomaldinho1]

Modern day open source intel is amazing, guy flying a drone over a battle and recording the whole thing. Non graphic.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Russia have just stopped the broadcast of our only relatively opposition-leaning radio station (Echo Moscow) & also restricted access to its website.
Dozhd', the only independent news TV channel that hadn't been allowed to broadcast TV for years now, & switched to their website and YouTube also had their website blocked.

Roskomnadzor had issued a warning to Wikipedia, threatening to block it, because of the article about this war.

It's disgusting. Really sad for the people at home seeking for answers.

 

[Raoul]

Modern day open source intel is amazing, guy flying a drone over a battle and recording the whole thing. Non graphic.

Amazing footage.

 

[do.ob]

It’s tough being a man of principles

Is there a definitive list of things now, it’s so hard to keep up with?
-petrochemicals companies (BP, Shell)
-Google, apple
-airlines
-freight companies
-banking
-media
Fully expect the weather to announce it’s no longer going to rain over Russia next

BMW announced they would halt production and exports for Russia, too. Though I'm not sure how much of a dent luxury cars will make.

 

[calodo2003]

Where the hell is the kid?!?

 

[Raoul]

How can the average Russian go about their daily business at this point.

Spoiler

 

[Dante]

That pipeline you're talking about is the original Nord stream though?! With Germany at the end of it, who just killed NS2 and are building up their infrastructure to buy from other countries via the sea, as well as exploring options to move away from gas in general.

I'm talking about Soyuz and Brotherhood.

At the moment, you're right that there won't be any European buyers because of sanctions. But come winter time (assuming major military operations in Ukraine are over) I think we'll see the EU backing down eventually.

Spare US and Qatari LNG capacity is very limited. They'd have to break existing contracts in order to supply Europe with all its energy needs. That'll be when that famous 'Western hypocrisy' could come back into play. Aiming for this is now Russia's last remaining gambit.

 

[sglowrider]

No. A pipeline is worthless when there is no customer at the end of it. And that's what's happening, he isn't losing control over the pipeline, he is losing Germany as a customer.

Exactly. Even if he annexed the gas fields of Ukraine, it's not like diamonds where he can smuggle out of the conflict areas easily. Transporting gas is very complex via pipes or liquidified. And who to?

 

[Walrus]

If for whatever reason Putin gets outed, there needs to be a massive effort by the West to build Russia back up - so long as they are prepared to abandon authoritarianism and censorship.

In such an eventuality, I (as the EU, let’s say) would be saying that we would be prepared to lift all sanctions, but that Russia would need to cease media censorship and agree to independently ratified and observed elections (as well as withdrawing from Ukraine obviously, if they we’re still there)

 

[Rightnr]

If for whatever reason Putin gets outed, there needs to be a massive effort by the West to build Russia back up - so long as they are prepared to abandon authoritarianism and censorship.

In such an eventuality, I (as the EU, let’s say) would be saying that we would be prepared to lift all sanctions, but that Russia would need to cease media censorship and agree to independently ratified and observed elections (as well as withdrawing from Ukraine obviously, if they we’re still there)

Honestly, this sounds like a pipe dream.

 

[Walrus]

Honestly, this sounds like a pipe dream.

True, very much a best case scenario, based on the assumption that the international economic response is utterly crippling Russia to the point where they can’t just carry on as is.

 

[do.ob]

I'm talking about Soyuz and Brotherhood.

At the moment, you're right that there won't be any European buyers because of sanctions. But come winter time (assuming major military operations in Ukraine are over) I think we'll see the EU backing down eventually.

Spare US and Qatari LNG capacity is very limited. They'd have to break existing contracts in order to supply Europe with all its energy needs. That'll be when that famous 'Western hypocrisy' could come back into play. Aiming for this is now Russia's last remaining gambit.

I have no deeper understanding of the current state of the energy market and I assume that the EU don't intend to cut off Russian gas entirely, even after this. But I find it hard to imagine that the West will have to capitulate to Russian gas.

 

[The Corinthian]

How do you suppose Ukraine just gets everyone out? The whole country is at war and the infrastructure is on its knees.

It’s up to the individual embassies of citizens to make arrangements with the EU and Moldova to to take their citizens and assist their exit from Ukraine. It’s no good Ukraine allowing people to leave its border, unless people will subsequently be able to leave no man’s land and enter the EU or Moldova.

How can embassies make arrangements if Ukraine isn’t letting people leave the country?

Edit: just to add the Nigerian embassy has made arrangements with Warsaw to charter flights for their students who managed to get into Poland.

 

[hasanejaz88]

If for whatever reason Putin gets outed, there needs to be a massive effort by the West to build Russia back up - so long as they are prepared to abandon authoritarianism and censorship.

In such an eventuality, I (as the EU, let’s say) would be saying that we would be prepared to lift all sanctions, but that Russia would need to cease media censorship and agree to independently ratified and observed elections (as well as withdrawing from Ukraine obviously, if they we’re still there)

I fear Putin will destroy Ukraine, and attack another country, before any possibility of him being outsed happens.

 

[Paxi]

 

[TMDaines]

Good thread of fakes. Somehow avoided seeing and believing most of these:

 

[dinostar77]

How can the average Russian go about their daily business at this point.

Spoiler

They will be fine. When they get to the point of selling thier kidneys and children to feed their families, then its bad (i.e. Afghanistan at the moment).

 

[Ramshock]

The few Russian stocks left in London (Polymeral, Evraz) are down about 75%. At some point they have to open the Russian exchange again.

Stupid question but is there any point in buying roubles for future gain?

 

[Hernandez - BFA]

The eerie noise of the missile in the air before it hits sounds frightening in itself.

 

[Mickeza]

 

[TheReligion]

That large backlog of Russian hardware is still getting coverage.

It would suggest that they have superiority in the air and are very confident in their current position.

Id say it’s pretty telling it hasn’t been attacked sadly

 

[Ramshock]

That large backlog of Russian hardware is still getting coverage.

It would suggest that they have superiority in the air and are very confident in their current position.

Id say it’s pretty telling it hasn’t been attacked sadly

isnt there issues with the Ukrainian forces getting ammunition and supplies through?

 

[Rightnr]

True, very much a best case scenario, based on the assumption that the international economic response is utterly crippling Russia to the point where they can’t just carry on as is.

I watched a feature on BBC today from their BBC Russia office in Moscow (I think). Interviewed one deranged lunatic meant to be an MP and another babushka who just watches TV and believes that there's no way they're bombing Kharkiv. Asked for evidence, she just said there's no way and that was that. A true Trump supporter level of reasoning (for lack of a better description).

Now, you may think this is exaggerating things for sensationalism from the BBC but I can really believe it. And if this is in Moscow where they have internet, etc., what do people in the villages think?

I have always thought that Putin stands a good chance at getting elected in a normal democratic process (obviously not now). The thinking in those parts of the world is just so focussed on a victim complex and constantly blaming others for your failures.

This may not be so with young people but in that sense, I think Russia's similar to the US. Millennials and younger just don't yield the power.

 

[sullydnl]

 

[Simbo]

Russia have just stopped the broadcast of our only relatively opposition-leaning radio station (Echo Moscow) & also restricted access to its website.
Dozhd', the only independent news TV channel that hadn't been allowed to broadcast TV for years now, & switched to their website and YouTube also had their website blocked.

Roskomnadzor had issued a warning to Wikipedia, threatening to block it, because of the article about this war.

With everything being shutdown and blocked, isn't it just going to encourage people to make extra efforts to find out why?

 

[TheReligion]

isnt there issues with the Ukrainian forces getting ammunition and supplies through?

Is there?

I just thought Russia has no issue in leaving a huge target out in the open now. It suggests they control the air and don’t fear any missile attacks

 

[TMDaines]

How can embassies make arrangements if Ukraine isn’t letting people leave the country?

Via telephones and the Internet generally. I’m not being facetious.

If you don’t have visa-free access to a country, citizens will or should be engaging their embassy to ensure they can enter a neighbouring one. Most embassies will do this automatically in such a situation, so Nigeria would agree with Hungary/EU to give their citizens visa-free access. I imagine in such cases that such citizens would still have a fair bit of paperwork that needs to be done.

 

[Frosty]

 

[harms]

With everything being shutdown and blocked, isn't it just going to encourage people to make extra efforts to find out why?

Those who have watched/listened to those already know why. But it's going to be harder for them to gather necessary information.

And the Streisand effect actually struggles in authoritarian police states from time to time.