Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Dante]

I have no deeper understanding of the current state of the energy market and I assume that the EU don't intend to cut off Russian gas entirely, even after this. But I find it hard to imagine that the West will have to capitulate to Russian gas.

It would be pragmatism rather than capitulation.

Europe might be able to tolerate a summer of record high energy prices. But would they able to do the same over a freezing winter where families and pensioners can no longer afford to heat their homes?

The current public outrage is being fuelled by seeing bombs exploding on TV. Assuming that Ukraine can eventually be quelled and civilians are no longer being killed in their dozens, I think we'll see eventually see a lot of western governments backing down from sanctions. If they don't, they'd be at serious risk of losing their next elections.

It's a distasteful thought, but that's the way the world works. It's also why Germany waited so long to make the decision on NS2. If they could have avoided it they would have, since it was never in their own best interest. The same principle applies to everyone else's sanctions (including the UK).

For precedent, just look at all the oil the world gets from Saudi Arabia. What they're doing in Yemen is arguably worse than Russia in Ukraine. And yet the world tolerates it.

 

[alexthelion]

You keep on trying to defend what is clearly a racist policy of only allowing white / Ukrainians through. The non-white people are probably there on student or work visas. Why shouldn’t they be let through?

Isn't it generally a policy to look after your own people before those of another nation?

Also, what have/are the countries of the others doing to help?

 

[Smores]

Good thread of fakes. Somehow avoided seeing and believing most of these:

People using this to get views and in turn money are sick in the head.

 

[MUFC OK]

He's not going to attack the UK and invade us. We aren't of interest to him.

He's also not going to nuke us or he'd get the same back ten fold.

So no he's not much of a threat to us specifically. He's more of a threat to Europe as a whole than just us.

Faced with his own mortality I don’t think we can say for definite how far he would go. Doesn’t seem to care about anyone but himself.

 

[sport2793]

Looks like Kherson may have fallen

 

[Ramshock]

Is there?

I just thought Russia has no issue in leaving a huge target out in the open now. It suggests they control the air and don’t fear any missile attacks

Most likely true, however they havent exactly been running a smooth operation so far.

 

[alexthelion]

Some people spit their dummy because some of us were using names of Putin combined with his German counterpart from WW2.

So much for freedom of speech when others on here love going on about how both sides are at fault and that's fine

Not everyone is equal, apparently.

 

[Raoul]

Looks like Kherson may have fallen

The Russians have control of it (or at a minimum a vast majority of it). That's not to say they can hold it once an insurgency begin to take shape.

 

[::sonny::]

 

[TheReligion]

I simply don't agree with that.

The only threat directly to the UK is the one that looms over the world. The nuclear option. Absolutely zero chance to any invasion or bombing from the air.

 

[TheReligion]

A lot of talk today about war crimes from within the Ukraine.

I think the repeat pleas for a no fly zone highlights they have lost the air to Russia too (along with the huge unchallenged Russia force)

I think we are in the final days before seeing the capital in Russia hands and mass destruction.

 

[11101]

That large backlog of Russian hardware is still getting coverage.

It would suggest that they have superiority in the air and are very confident in their current position.

Id say it’s pretty telling it hasn’t been attacked sadly

If the BBC report is correct that it's mostly just logistics packages then it wouldn't make sense to target it with their limited firepower. None of that stuff can shoot at you. Focus on destroying the things that can.

 

[Carolina Red]

If the BBC report is correct that it's mostly just logistics packages then it wouldn't make sense to target it with their limited firepower. None of that stuff can shoot at you. Focus on destroying the things that can.

At the same time… things that shoot at you can’t without logistics

 

[TheReligion]

If the BBC report is correct that it's mostly just logistics packages then it wouldn't make sense to target it with their limited firepower. None of that stuff can shoot at you. Focus on destroying the things that can.

You’d cut off the supply line for sure
I think the combination of what we are seeing and hearing from Ukraine today is ominous

 

[rpitchfo]

Do we really think China are going to sit by and watch putin press the nuclear button and send the world back to the Stone Age? They got a big stake in this getting sorted.

 

[Stanley Road]

Sadly I feel Ukraine will get fecked in the coming days / weeks. Russia have too much in house

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Do we really think China are going to sit by and watch putin press the nuclear button and send the world back to the Stone Age? They got a big stake in this getting sorted.

Hard to say, but one thing for certain is that Xi Xinping thinks himself as the next incarnation of Mao and is exerting a level of power unseen since Mao. That is dangerous.

 

[ChaddyP]

How can the average Russian go about their daily business at this point.

Spoiler

At least buying gas from them now will be super cheap

 

[11101]

You’d cut off the supply line for sure
I think the combination of what we are seeing and hearing from Ukraine today is ominous

In every past war supply lines come later on, when the enemy is deeper into your territory and running out if supplies. 5 days in and a few km from the border doesn't yet meet that. Better for them to go for the forces who are actually in the fight right now.

But you are right, Ukraine won't hold out forever and it looks like Russia has changed tactics.

 

[Wibble]

I'd like to know as well, some mod must have changed something because all I can see are posts that say you can't call him Putin and must instead call him Putin..

Some people spit their dummy because some of us were using names of Putin combined with his German counterpart from WW2.

So much for freedom of speech when others on here love going on about how both sides are at fault and that's fine

Move on. Childish name calling doesn't advance the discussion and are just a distraction. If anything we are saving you from failing at the first hurdle due to Godwin's Law.

 

[tomaldinho1]

Sadly I feel Ukraine will get fecked in the coming days / weeks. Russia have too much in house

It’s inevitable Kharkiv and Mariupol fall soon - they’ve already held out way longer than expected and you’d expect Kyiv will follow. I think the hope is it’s clear Ukraine hasn’t really committed the bulk of its army anywhere yet either and they could be in the West preparing a more defensible front line which will have access to NATO supplies and be much harder to break through given a Russia can’t come in behind them this time.

 

[::sonny::]

 

[mariachi-19]

I feel attacked

 

[maximus419]

At least buying gas from them now will be super cheap

I think the days of any country trading with Russia, particularly for gas and oil are over. Unless they agree to a complete regime change and a more pro European stance, I see most of the world turning it's back on Russia for at least 20 years.

 

[calodo2003]

Wow

 

[VorZakone]

It’s inevitable Kharkiv and Mariupol fall soon - they’ve already held out way longer than expected and you’d expect Kyiv will follow. I think the hope is it’s clear Ukraine hasn’t really committed the bulk of its army anywhere yet either and they could be in the West preparing a more defensible front line which will have access to NATO supplies and be much harder to break through given a Russia can’t come in behind them this time.

Which would make a West-East split of Ukraine more likely.

 

[The Firestarter]

Sakes....

 

[Stanley Road]

It’s inevitable Kharkiv and Mariupol fall soon - they’ve already held out way longer than expected and you’d expect Kyiv will follow. I think the hope is it’s clear Ukraine hasn’t really committed the bulk of its army anywhere yet either and they could be in the West preparing a more defensible front line which will have access to NATO supplies and be much harder to break through given a Russia can’t come in behind them this time.

Someone has to bomb that convoy

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

 

[the_cliff]

I think the days of any country trading with Russia, particularly for gas and oil are over. Unless they agree to a complete regime change and a more pro European stance, I see most of the world turning it's back on Russia for at least 20 years.

I disagree. I mean the EU is still buying Russian gas right now and the US is still buying Russian Oil.

If the EU doesn't buy gas from Russia where do they get it from ? Just curious. It's not like it's available at every street corner.

 

[tomaldinho1]

Someone has to bomb that convoy

I guess the US could just leave a B52 at the border with the engine on.

 

[MUFC OK]

The only threat directly to the UK is the one that looms over the world. The nuclear option. Absolutely zero chance to any invasion or bombing from the air.

That’s exactly what I was referring to.

 

[sullydnl]

 

[Infra-red]

... and therefore, we have no choice but to flatten the capital city."

 

[Jericholyte2]

I imagine that ‘balanced’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting there!

 

[Enigma_87]

I disagree. I mean the EU is still buying Russian gas right now and the US is still buying Russian Oil.

If the EU doesn't buy gas from Russia where do they get it from ? Just curious. It's not like it's available at every street corner.

Alternative sources and fuel. It will create price spikes, but that's due to EU itself for making themselves dependent on Russia so much.

 

[The Firestarter]

... and therefore, we have no choice but to flatten the capital city."

War criminals the whole lot. They need a Nuremberg.

 

[Ananke]

There's only one way this is all going...

 

[Raoul]

Christ

 

[Sky1981]

There are questions over the legalities of wars in Syria and Iraq, but those regions were exceptionally volatile and conflict-ridden anyway. Just as a footnote, there are 250 mass graves in Iraq that are dating from 1979-2003, the time of Saddam's rule. I don't know how that can be blamed upon the West. Anyone who is of the Shiite faith or who is Kurdish will be glad that the world was rid of Saddam. As a hardline Sunni, Saddam did not view them as being Iraqi, so he felt that he could do with them what he wished.

Regardless of how you feel about Ukraine under its current rule, Iraq was a country where in a single year literally tens of thousands of kurds were killed using chemicals, and that is verified by independent human rights groups. I don't know how this can be compared to the situation in the Ukraine, which despite having problems with separatists, has nothing approaching that level of outright genocide of people on ethnic grounds.

Assad was arguably far worse than even Saddam. It was the world's responsibility to get rid of them and had the west done nothing, people still would have died unjustly. Again, this is not comparable to the situation in the Ukraine. Atrocities were happening in the region and would have gone on happening without intervention.

The Ukrainian conflict is an entirely different proposition and is about a hostile invading force taking over a peaceful country that has long been concerned for its safety since Soviet rule broke down.

I really don't think we do ourselves any favours by comparing like-for-like with ME wars. It merely fudges a very complex issue. In saying that, I do believe that opposition towards Western intervention often manifests as unwitting tacit support for blood-lust dictators, and their right to hold entire ethnic groups under their anvil.

Who created these problems in the first place?