That's fair. Although I have trouble imagining what it could a bit more specifically mean.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Yes of course he will try again and has almost been encouraged to do that by the US stance.
Wars are what they are. Nasty brutal things. And they are not straight line gains.
But he has gained significant territory and weakened both Ukraine and NATO.
The consensus amongst military and political experts is that, this has worked out spectacularly well for Putin compared to what was expected a few months ago.
I am aware. However, if there would be any truth about it, I'm sure NSA, CIA and other agencies would be all over it.
Actually, if he isn't an asset, his speeches, policies and behavior are even worse. .
That would prevent them from delivering tomorrow, not from making deals. And such deals would be crucial to prevent a massive economical issue once the war is over. Because a lot of export deals would be the only sensible way to keep the war economy going and having to only slightly scale it back.
Slapping the label "battle proven" on their stuff should have made making deals easier, but they got none. Because most of it is battle proven shit, and that what isn't isn't made in Russia.
Those "consensus compared to what was expected" change constantly and there is no reason to believe that that will stop.
It doesn't matter. These agencies do not have legislative power. So let's say they find airtight evidence, and let's assume this was during the last years of the Obama administration. What could realistically happen? They can't legally forbid him from running. They can't arrest him when no crime has been committed yet. Even if they had arrested him, he could still run - it's not prohibited. In fact I think he wins against Hillary in a massive landslide in such a case because everyone screams witch hunt just like this time. Trump is the symptom of an already broken society.
Interesting post.
For me it depends on how Trump sees the future US/Europe relationship.
I struggle to see how the businessman Trump thinks it is beneficial to kick Europe and Ukraine in the teeth and destroy the longstanding relationship with them in favour of short term financial gains by stopping funding for Ukraine.
He is already talking about wanting Ukraine to pay back the '350 bn' dollars of aid allocated to US support for Ukraine by this supposed Rare Earth minerals.
If it is really about wanting a financial payback, I would have thought he would keep Ukraine onside in order to get access to any mineral resources.
US intelligence shared with Russia, selling weapons at discount prices to Russia, sanctions and other means of economic pressure on EU countries.
I guess this guy is out of a job soon then?
Exactly what I'm thinking
I'd say he is doing his job fine, his role is to be a more friendly pro-Ukraine representative, reassuring Zelensky that their interests are being considered in the negotiations, that the US won't withdraw troops from Europe, etc. He is the only one who I have seen being supportive of attacks with US weapons into Russia. And his presence seems to be doing some good:
feck this - We didn't sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives to escape from Russian grip on our economic future just to be behest to an American imperial function.
I would agree that he's doing a decent job, but I'm not convinced anymore his superiors feel the same way
What I was trying to say is, this is (in my opinion) exactly his job in this negotiation. If he were to call Zelensky a dictator, claim that Russia is no threat to Europe and is not the aggressor here, and whatever else Vance and Trump are saying, he'd likely be kicked out of Ukraine. So he 's there to smooth things over and keep Ukraine/Europe somewhat happy, being the good cop basically, and advance the mineral deal (which looks horrible for Ukraine based on some initial leaks). How much say he has in the actual negotiations with Russia is very little I imagine, but he'll relay Ukraines point of view but that isn't likely to be a high priority.
Didn't Donald say "some big companies are coming back" just the other day? Did he mean back to Russia?
Damn. Didn't expect Rubio to be so harsh (and untruthful) as well. Maybe they should just kick Kellogg out and ditch the US at this point.
I never got people being impressed with Rubio or someone thinking he may actually be one of the few saving graces of this administration. It's like people forgot how he completely caved like a little bitch when Trump started jokes about him. Trump does seem to recognize spineless people well - I'll give him that.
He sounds sick or old or both
Zelensky looks to me like the classical fall guy. He'll be deposed (most likely) and then the minerals will be split between private equity firms with a nationalist bent. That's the peace that's being made. Is what it is. I don't see any scenario where Ukraine can persist without US aid because they'd have crumbled at least two years ago if they never received it. Moreover, they don't even have US political support at the moment (Zelensky doesn't).
I don't see this situation changing much except in the eyes of the US they'll get bargain minerals (worth many billions, probably more than the cost of the aid) and Russia will get the same. EU entry is about the only thing Ukraine can achieve as of now and that's not a speedy process (ask the Turks: a larger economy and arguably even more valuable in strategic terms moving into the rising south and multipolar ordering of the world [once the Russian security agreement is done]).
The decision has clearly been made. There is no scope for deviation because this level of messaging (concerto) does not happen without very committed policy planning (economic). All that remains to be seen is what the EU nations do when this peace deal is done (I'm certain the US and Russia will sign one). I don't see the EU putting troops in Ukraine (ever) unless it is post-peace-deal and security agreements.
I don't see this situation changing much except in the eyes of the US they'll get bargain minerals (worth many billions, probably more than the cost of the aid) and Russia will get the same. EU entry is about the only thing Ukraine can achieve as of now and that's not a speedy process (ask the Turks: a larger economy and arguably even more valuable in strategic terms moving into the rising south and multipolar ordering of the world [once the Russian security agreement is done]).
The decision has clearly been made. There is no scope for deviation because this level of messaging (concerto) does not happen without very committed policy planning (economic). All that remains to be seen is what the EU nations do when this peace deal is done (I'm certain the US and Russia will sign one). I don't see the EU putting troops in Ukraine (ever) unless it is post-peace-deal and security agreements.
Nonsense, they didn't crumble when they were outgunned 10 to 1 and they won't if again goes back there, which it won't. If it did, Ukraine still isn't accepting their silly 'peace' deal.
I honestly disagree. I don't think they have a choice unless Europe is to front the entire endeavor and go against the US by doing so.
That's how policy, since the Suez escapade, has been. The UK/France/Israel tried to invade Egypt and then the US told the British that they could have either an empire or a currency and they all withdrew. Nothing fundamental has happened since then in term of realpolitik. The US is an empire and the EU is as a financial empire. You cannot win a war with investment banking and the kind of money required to out-match Russian spending (every year or at least come close to it comparatively) as well the necessary political supports -- these are all evaporating if not entirely evaporated. Same with the Israelis. Without US cover they'd have been fecked too many times to remember (old wars) and now they only use it to cleanse people when their state is not at risk/threat at all.
They had NATO support when they were outgunned 10 to 1. The US was salivating the prospect that they could bleed the Russians dry in a new Afghanistan but that isn't what happened (this is not hearsay, it was think-tank orthodoxy at the time and many EU nations went the same route). With that gone, and it is gone, if you're being brutally realistic, what is left?
I'm curious to get @AfonsoAlves opinion. He allegedly knows Rubio (if indirectly) through work matters. Seems to me like the die is cast.
The US is a relatively declining empire. This is absolutely certain. That's why it cannot handle regional situations and also compete with China. This isn't just spur of the moment, mental Donald Trump stuff.
The Germans and French will do what they always do. NOTHING.
UK will probably be used by the US as peacekeepers while holding out a begging bowl and poor Ukrainians will have billions syphoned out.
Europe is not siding with Trump over Ukraine, not a chance. Trump has made it abundantly clear that he is an adversary of Europe and ally of Russia. There is no negotiating with that and this cannot be compared to anything in history. Trump is not "The US", not quite yet at least. If he wants to use force against ally, he'll have to deal with his civil war first. Economically and everything else, the US has a much to lose as Europe does, we'll all suffer together.
Ukraine went 6-9 months before with no US supplies and lost like another 0.2% of their territory. Something like 40% of their arms is from domestic supply nowadays and that's continuously increasing, they are in a much better position now than in any point of this war prior. Russia are in a much, much worse position. If you want to consider scenario's, look at the other side for a minute. Russia is f*cked, lifting sanctions wont' help them, that'll take too long to take effect. Same with rocks in the ground, they've got enough in their own country. Everything is falling apart because all spending has been diverted to the military. Keep an eye out for Trump somehow getting immediate financial aid to them, that's what all this is about.
Their economy has grown over the past three years despite the toll of war and sanctions. I've listened to many economists at this stage clearly demonstrating this fact and have also seen GDP and PPP graphs.
I don't think they're fecked. Most of the area they occupy is densely Russian speaking (if you look at the linguistic map). It resembles a partition, akin to that the British used to do as a matter of religion, whereby Crimea is one of the most densely pro-Russian or pro-Russian speaking areas and then the areas they now hold are in the 70s or so on (haven't seen that map in a while). But with that kind of distribution you may have terrorist attacks but they'd be much more limited than if they were tying to hold Kyiv.
It's mostly this red area, and divided by the river (not to the West of the Crimean corridor and not yet Odessa), which Russia is holding (we all know the land they hold and it overlaps with this Red area for the most part. Given the mass deportations, and so on, I don't see how that red will have come down. Surely it has grown in the occupied areas as a matter of necessity given the tactics they employed.
This one is better. They've basically held the blue areas and a little but more than that apropos the corridor to Crimea.
Last edited:
Ukrainian soldiers dismiss Trump-Russia peace push
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-soldiers-dismiss-trump-russia-peace-push-2025-02-21/
Ukraine's bond investors left reeling as ceasefire hopes sour
https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...sefire-rise-sending-debt-tumbling-2025-02-20/
Russia Talks Peace While Troops Threaten New Region in Ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/21/world/europe/russia-ukraine-peace-talks.html
EU leaders plan €20B Ukraine aid package as Trump rails against Zelenskyy
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-...aid-package-donald-trump-volodymyr-zelenskyy/
Starmer is going to Trump on Tuesday and do exactly that.
Russian language? Really? 2022 called and wants its propaganda back.Their economy has grown over the past three years despite the toll of war and sanctions. I've listened to many economists at this stage clearly demonstrating this fact and have also seen GDP and PPP graphs.
I don't think they're fecked. Most of the area they occupy is densely Russian speaking (if you look at the linguistic map). It resembles a partition, akin to that the British used to do as a matter of religion, whereby Crimea is one of the most densely pro-Russian or pro-Russian speaking areas and then the areas they now hold are in the 70s or so on (haven't seen that map in a while). But with that kind of distribution you may have terrorist attacks but they'd be much more limited than if they were tying to hold Kyiv.
It's mostly this red area, and divided by the river (not to the West of the Crimean corridor and not yet Odessa), which Russia is holding (we all know the land they hold and it overlaps with this Red area for the most part. Given the mass deportations, and so on, I don't see how that red will have come down. Surely it has grown in the occupied areas as a matter of necessity given the tactics they employed.
This one is better. They've basically held the blue areas and a little but more than that apropos the corridor to Crimea.
Seriously though, look up how GDP is calculated. Their expenditure causing the “growth” has only been put into things that have exploded or died, nothing productive.
Their problem is cash, they don’t have any. You can be the most profitable company in the world, but if you can’t get funding because you’re a massive cnut, you’re going out of business.
The war chest is now effectively empty or will be in the next few months. They cannot sell bonds on the international market, because they turned themselves pariah state. They cannot sell nearly enough domestic bonds and a re forcing corporations into massive amounts of debt to try and keep inflation down. Because they crippled spending on everything else they are now limiting rail travel, their planes are falling apart with an emergency landing in the news almost everyday now. Medicine shortages, 160 hospitals have closed in the last year. Today there’s reports union of flour and cereals has warned of mass bankruptcies, food inflation is 100% on some items.
F*cked I tells ya. Ukraine aren’t the ones pushing for a peace deal, Putin is absolutely desperate and begging for it through his proxy. This is proving costly to Trump at home also.
Ha, we’ll see.
I wish i had your optimism, the way i look at it, US will force some kind of settlement, Europe have money, but they don't have the weapons to properly supply Ukraine on their own, so what can they really do about it?
Russia may be screwed in the long run, but so is Ukraine.
How can Putin have any talks with Trump when he claims he hates Nazis yet Trump has surrounded himself with Cosplay Nazis and sympathetic followers
I'm not THAT optimistic, its going to hurt like sh*t. I'm just pushing back on the idea that Ukraine will not survive and will have to capitulate to Putin's demands without US aid.... which is wildly exaggerated. People have to remember the massive disinformation war being waged on us as well.
The domestic fallout for Starmer if he did that would be huge. His respect and any capital he has in Europe would disappear.
Hopefully instead he s going to bring back his Nazi scalp