Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Imagine if they’re caught though. At least now they could have a cover story (that the Russians would obviously know as bullshit). Also I’m not too sure we’d commit to pinging SAS into frontline roles. Maybe there to spy on the Russians and gather intel but that’s about it. We haven’t got too many of them and they’re incredibly valuable assets, so could very well be being held back. But this gives them plausible deniability.

You're right, it'll be the SRS using non-British issued kit doing recon.

There is likely an SAS/SBS squadron that has moved to Eastern Europe I would expect.
 
Clearly. He is however a lot more impulsive and prone to irrational decisions.

Putin is more wicked, calculated and cunning. But his sociopathic nature doesn't make him more prone to pushing the nuclear button 'because he's a lunatic'.
I agree but I am not saying he would fire them because of his mental status. Thing is he thought it would be relatively easy taking over Ukraine but his plan has backfired immensely. They are fighting back harder than he imagined. Russians have made big losses on the battleground and the nation has been hit with enormous economcal sanctions.

Now we have a man who have threatened to use nukes backed into a corner and my point is when such a situation arises you never know what may or may not happen.
 

Him and Lee have been class.

I thought the airforce had been involved though (post 14), the 1st attempt at Gostomel was 20+ Ka-52’s (lots of video evidence) and some plane involvement, the second attempt was reported by a number of good outlets as ~200 attack helicopters and planes. I believe Kofman even speculated what some of the second wave’s armour carrying aircraft were so believed it was good info at the time. Maybe that doesn’t constitute major involvement in the grand scale of things I guess?
 
Yeah fair enough. I’ve just never seen the government explicitly say they’re “allowing” Britons to fight. They made it very clear that no one was allowed to go to Syria and fight with the Kurds, despite the YPG not being a terrorist organisation. Not sure if Abadi went with the governments blessing either and was on an MI5 watchlist for good reason (even if it didn’t prevent the atrocity).

As far as I’m aware in the case of Libya it was more turning a blind eye. They knew fighters were going and let it happen. Maybe with Syria they were hardline on it because they didn’t want more Brits getting beheaded in ISIS propaganda, as a guess.

Has the government said they can go here? It says in the article that Ben Wallace is saying not to go.
 
You're right, it'll be the SRS using non-British issued kit doing recon.

There is likely an SAS/SBS squadron that has moved to Eastern Europe I would expect.
What has been known to happen before is a number of active troopers “take leave” together…what they do on their holidays is nothing to do with the government…
 
I agree but I am not saying he would fire them because of his mental status. Thing is he thought it would be relatively easy taking over Ukraine but his plan has backfired immensely. They are fighting back harder than he imagined. Russians have made big losses on the battleground and the nation has been hit with enormous economcal sanctions.

Now we have a man who have threatened to use nukes backed into a corner and my point is when such a situation arises you never know what may or may not happen.

I think that we can say of Putin that he wouldn't push the button without some gain calculated.

If his temper were more like trumps I'd consider him more likely to push the button for little reason other than he wanted to in the moment.

Of course you never know what may happen. But I think he'd consider the likelihood of simply being assassinated by his own if he tried a sufficient deterrent.
 
Putin's fear of death actually explains most of his actions. He desires immortality through deeds. Land grabbed will endure a lot longer than any upsurge in economy etc. He wants to leave a mark for the ages.

I hope you're right.

Not just the rhetoric from Putin, but serious analysts on the news being unsure of how far this could escalate has had me quite anxious lately.

Just a few days ago I was on here going on about how nuclear war won't happen, Putin can't win, he isn't stupid, etc etc. But now I'm just not sure, and I hate that.
 
From the BBC…
International Criminal Court to investigate invasion
The International Criminal Court will open an investigation into alleged war crime conducted by Russia in Ukraine.
"There is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine," Karim AA Khan, the ICC prosecutor has said.
"It is my intention that this investigation will also encompass any new alleged crimes falling within the jurisdiction of my Office that are committed by any party to the conflict on any part of the territory of Ukraine".
 
As far as I’m aware in the case of Libya it was more a case of turning a blind eye. They knew fighters were going and let it happen. Maybe with Syria they were hardline on it because they didn’t want more Brits getting beheaded in ISIS propaganda, as a guess.

Has the government said they can go here? It says in the article that Ben Wallace is saying not to go.

Our top diplomat Liz Truss said she’d allow Britons to go and fight because, you know, “ooo great optics Liz, that’s slashed your odds to be next leader”. Wallace just saying the obvious thing. It’s unbelievably moronic to go there.


I worry if these guys really know what combat looks like. I know they're saying things like "I know I can die" but saying those things is easy when you're emotional and care about what's going on in Ukraine. They might find themselves in some Kyiv or Kharkov alley at night, surrounded by Russians waiting to blow 'em up. It's hell.

I agree, it’s a crazy call to make. One thing being passionate, another defending your home town from foreign invasion. The latter gives you the courage and confidence to do a good job (you also speak the language and know your way around). These guys just have passion, but lack the language and local knowledge to be effective. It’s reckless and stupid.
 
As far as I’m aware in the case of Libya it was more turning a blind eye. They knew fighters were going and let it happen. Maybe with Syria they were hardline on it because they didn’t want more Brits getting beheaded in ISIS propaganda, as a guess.

Has the government said they can go here? It says in the article that Ben Wallace is saying not to go.
Yes, actually you're right. Even during Syria, the government had allowed it by turning a blind eye. This was during the initial stages of the uprising. When ISIS became a huge problem and threat globally then this is when the government put a stop to it.
 
I hope Putin doesn't decided to nuke the international criminal court. That's like 2 miles from my house :nervous:
 
What europe should do as well is turn off the oil and gas taps from Russia and get them elsewhere. I imagine it would be difficult. But that would really cripple the russian economy given 30 to 40 percent of their GDP is from selling oil and gas to europe and elsewhere.
 
You're right, it'll be the SRS using non-British issued kit doing recon.

There is likely an SAS/SBS squadron that has moved to Eastern Europe I would expect.

fecking hate that my first thought reading this was “woah cool”.
 
What europe should do as well is turn off the oil and gas taps from Russia and get them elsewhere. I imagine it would be difficult. But that would really cripple the russian economy given 30 to 40 percent of their GDP is from selling oil and gas to europe and elsewhere.
I just can't imagine that's even remotely possible, despite all the bluster. If someone can provide that evidence then I'll gladly accept I'm wrong. I think despite all the big talk we still need Russia and vice versa. Very difficult situation.
 
I worry if these guys really know what combat looks like. I know they're saying things like "I know I can die" but saying those things is easy when you're emotional and care about what's going on in Ukraine. They might find themselves in some Kyiv or Kharkov alley at night, surrounded by Russians waiting to blow 'em up. It's hell.

It is utterly stupid. I did 1 tour in the ME, someone from that tour has since killed himself. That is someone who passed medical tests and went through the training which is designed to train you to operate under stress.

I saw men who gave it the big stuff beforehand freeze in place when we started taking fire for the 1st time, who needed the senior guys who had been there before kick into gear and start barking orders. Even I thought it was all surreal. Wait? They're shooting at me? How the feck some civvies not knowing the language are going to cope is beyond me.

She would be ashamed of herself and offer to pay the medical bills for the inevitable PTSD some of these will come back with out of her own pocket.
 
They belong to the US though. Germany aren’t considered a nuclear power and would only be used with the US.

Yes I am well aware of that. As I said, US B61 bombs. Anyway, they have a nuclear capability in that the German Air Force can deliver nuclear weapons from jets they helped to develop and produce.
But agree, US weapons that are provided by them to Germany through NATO.
 
So what's the way out then?

If you really believe Putin will never back down with any variation of a face-saving option (even a minor one that he just spins internally), how does this end? I know it's the desire of everyone for Putin to just get overthrown internally and then the new leaders of Russia would work out a deal but from everything @harms and others have posted that seems like a bit of overly-optimistic wishful thinking.

I think one way to diffuse this may be through back channel negotiations between NATO and Putin, using someone like Macron as an intermediary, where they negotiate some sort of inducement for Putin to pull back in exchange for certain sanctions being lifted. In order for that to work, Putin would have to already be feeling incredible pain back home to where he feels not doing something may jeopardize his grip on power. Only then, would he be incentivized to pull back a bit. But it would only work if the pain and instability in Moscow scare him enough to act.

This of course presupposes that Putin is mentally stable and a rational actor. If he isn't, then I think he doubles down on violence and the chances of NATO/EU military involvement inside Ukraine go up significantly.
 
Yes I am well aware of that. As I said, US B61 bombs. Anyway, they have a nuclear capability in that the German Air Force can deliver nuclear weapons from jets they helped to develop and produce.
But agree, US weapons that are provided by them to Germany through NATO.

It’s essentially so the US can have a strategic position in Europe. Anyway it matters not. The point I was making is the EU alone (as mentioned) doesn’t present much of a threat militarily to Russia. You need to bring the UK and US to the table.