Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[RoadTrip]

The NATO reason is not as important as some of you make out to try and justify Russia’s actions.

this is all on Putin. His statements about removing nazis, removing weapons and not recognizing ukraine as a sovereign country say more about his prejudices, his insanity than it does any worries about NATO. He’s literally making up reasons to go to war. His reasons aren’t consistent. So let’s stop pretending it’s about NATO when clearly it’s not. This is about a madman in power, who’s trying to bully others into living in the past like him.

At serious risk of hating myself, I am going to disagree slightly with this. Not that Putin isn’t a mad man who has many other reasons than just NATO to invade Ukraine. But the macro view here really is about Ukraine and it’s allegiances. For whatever reason, Ukraine as a nation has become a battleground for expansion by the EU or expansion by Russia. The core point is that Putin wants as many countries around him aligned to his outlook and ethos. As does the EU - a few posts above talk about Ursula wanting Ukraine in the EU. So this is very much about “winning” Ukraine as an ally. And it’s precisely that which is what is driving the firmness of the response to Russia around the world.

 

[Smores]

The problem is that a lot of the “everything else” is ridiculous posts like “where was the condemnation of Iraq?”

There is a very interesting nuanced debate to be had about actions of the west in the past and what Russia is doing now, but for it to be interesting it needs to be more intellectual than it has been in this thread which ends up coming across as people trying to score points.

And as a separate point that debate should obviously not be in this thread.

Well yeah there's obviously a mixed bag of posts, some are idiotic but they shouldn't really be used as a measure to limit all similar discussion because some of it provides a lens which to view this through.

I agree one of the posts pages back, bad actors and bad behaviour is easily masked by a righteous cause. This is a very distressing time and the mods should consider it's impact on people as should posters.

Personally i think idiotic posts accusing people of justifying Russia's invasion are just as bad as accusations of racism for the different perspectives. It's awful behaviour.

 

[Deery]

The NATO reason is not as important as some of you make out to try and justify Russia’s actions.

this is all on Putin. His statements about removing nazis, removing weapons and not recognizing ukraine as a sovereign country say more about his prejudices, his insanity than it does any worries about NATO. He’s literally making up reasons to go to war. His reasons aren’t consistent. So let’s stop pretending it’s about NATO when clearly it’s not. This is about a madman in power, who’s trying to bully others into living in the past like him.

Yep, I find it strange people jumping to the defence of Putin when he has as much as threatened nuclear war only several hours ago.

 

[RoadTrip]

I know, I think I phrased my question incorrectly, my bad.

Russia have over the last 10 years reduced considerably their reliance on the USD. Russia have diversified it's holdings and only holds 16% of it's reserves in the USD with 22% in gold. In fact in their trade with China they stopped using the dollar and have been trading in yuan and Ruble for over a year.

My question should have been what would the freezing of Russia's USD do to hyperinflation in the West ? Are those dollars just removed completely from the financial system ? or are they re printed in the US effectively coming home to roost ? It's easy to do such a thing to Russia, however China with 3.2 trillion would effectively cause the Economy to be completely shutdown.

I'm just curious in terms of the effects on the global economy, a lot of people seem extremely confident that this won't effect us in terms of economy, I'm a bit sceptical in that regard.

I think it’s just completely impractical. So many contracts (in particular global interbank contracts, funding and liquidity arrangements, etc.) all are generally USD denominated. In theory a country like China could untangle itself from that, but it would take a very long time but also would equally damage their economy significantly that it doesn’t make any sense at all.

 

[Rightnr]

I think another issue for Putin is if even if security-wise he didn't care, if Ukraine keeps lurching to the west, develops economically to a much higher standard than Russia, how does it look to the ordinary Russian if they visit there, see people very much like them, speaking the same language but with a system that allows them to lead much better lives.

It's kind of stuff they leads to regime and as much modern tech has made this information accessible to normal people in non-Western aligned countries, it's a different beast living it. I know it changed a lot for me when I moved abroad.

 

[Smithy89]

Yep, I find it strange people jumping to the defence of Putin when he has as much as threatened nuclear war only several hours ago.

NATO are bad, west is evil etc etc. We’ve heard it all in here the last few days, gets laughable.

 

[choccy77]

Re people bringing up past wars and yet questioning why the west isn't getting involved to help, you've got your answer.

It's not about the past mistakes, it's about learning from them and the consequences attached.

No one wanted a war, Russia have literally forced this position on the west and they could not justifiably stand idol, even though that was their initial response.

Sometimes, you have to do what is right, there will always be those who see different.

Only the winner, ultimately gets to tell the truth, even if it's a fabrication.

 

[rotherham_red]

The Asov battalion is a very nasty bunch for sure. It's also overused by russian propaganda to justify their invasion. Each and every time they have to fight dirty, it's because they're facing the Azov battalion. They're real, they have neo-nazi tendancies but their influence is vastly inflated by Russia.

Nothing I said disproves your assertion tbf mate. I agree with you, it certainly isn't indicative of the whole country being rabidly fascist, but the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian military actively tweeting something which refers to Muslims in the pejorative (let alone what their actions were in the video itself) is pretty noteworthy, no?

 

[golden_blunder]

At serious risk of hating myself, I am going to disagree slightly with this. Not that Putin isn’t a mad man who has many other reasons than just NATO to invade Ukraine. But the macro view here really is about Ukraine and it’s allegiances. For whatever reason, Ukraine as a nation has become a battleground for expansion by the EU or expansion by Russia. The core point is that Putin wants as many countries around him aligned to his outlook and ethos. As does the EU - a few posts above talk about Ursula wanting Ukraine in the EU. So this is very much about “winning” Ukraine as an ally. And it’s precisely that which is what is driving the firmness of the response to Russia around the world.

That may have been part of his thinking in the lead up, but now it’s any excuse he can think off. Rationale has long gone. He just doesn’t like the democratically elected government and what they stand for.

 

[Rightnr]

I think it’s just completely impractical. So many contracts (in particular global interbank contracts, funding and liquidity arrangements, etc.) all are generally USD denominated. In theory a country like China could untangle itself from that, but it would take a very long time but also would equally damage their economy significantly that it doesn’t make any sense at all.

One reason the Chinese have not been able to push the yuan as an alternative is because they control their currency a lot more than the US which already does so much shady stuff on that front.

But the US have the first-mover advantage in an established world order and China's alternative is not that much better, if at all, to switch.

Also, their stock market is a joke for outside investors, so why would you want to hold yuan. You need dollars to buy US stonks and I think that's a major thing for the Saudis who were scooping so many deals back in 2020.

 

[rotherham_red]

Re people bringing up past wars and yet questioning why the west isn't getting involved to help, you've got your answer.

It's not about the past mistakes, it's about learning from them and the consequences attached.

No one wanted a war, Russia have literally forced this position on the west and they could not justifiably stand idol, even though that was their initial response.

Sometimes, you have to do what is right, there will always be those who see different.

Only the winner gets to tell the truth.

Great, so when can we expect a cultural, sporting and economic boycott of Israel? Seeing as how we're all learning our lessons of the past and all?

Shall I tell Gaza to expect £500m of military aid, or £1bn?

 

[the_cliff]

I think it’s just completely impractical. So many contracts (in particular global interbank contracts, funding and liquidity arrangements, etc.) all are generally USD denominated. In theory a country like China could untangle itself from that, but it would take a very long time but also would equally damage their economy significantly that it doesn’t make any sense at all.

Agreed, but I was thinking more of a China/Russia/Saudi/Brazil/India type coalition. The fact that those countries are probably the only countries that haven't condemned Russia yet leave me a bit worried that it could all be a plan and in fact we are looking at the start of a ww.

You also have Saudi refusing to pump more oil and stick by the Russian backed Opec+ deal, it's a little worrying.

 

[RoadTrip]

NATO are already on his borders, i agree this is just about war and control. Decimating and controlling Ukraine under the Russian flag.

Yep, I find it strange people jumping to the defence of Putin when he has as much as threatened nuclear war only several hours ago.

I just made a post above. I’m not jumping to his defence but Putin very clearly has a general fear of the west and he clearly thinks they want to make Russia irrelevant. To be clear not saying that’s the case in reality, but it’s foolish to suggest he doesn’t believe it. So, the point I’m making is I very much understand WHY he wants Ukraine in his pocket. And why he is doing what he is doing.That’s different to saying it’s based on real facts. And in any case, as I said above, that in no way gives him any right to invade them. Fighting for their allegiance through diplomatic channels is one thing - and frankly no different to what any country does. But invading them for it? That’s obviously not acceptable and he’s rightly getting condemned for it.

 

[choccy77]

Great, so when can we expect a cultural, sporting and economic boycott of Israel? Seeing as how we're all learning our lessons of the past and all?

That's s great question for a different thread topic.

 

[RoadTrip]

That may have been part of his thinking in the lead up, but now it’s any excuse he can think off. Rationale has long gone. He just doesn’t like the democratically elected government and what they stand for.

Agreed. But that’s because they want to align with the West. If the exact same people wanted to align with Russia he would have no issue with them whatsoever.

 

[Redlyn]

NATO are already on his borders, i agree this is just about war and control. Decimating and controlling Ukraine under the Russian flag.

I do wonder if this invasion happens if NATO does not exist.

 

[Bepi]

At serious risk of hating myself, I am going to disagree slightly with this. Not that Putin isn’t a mad man who has many other reasons than just NATO to invade Ukraine. But the macro view here really is about Ukraine and it’s allegiances. For whatever reason, Ukraine as a nation has become a battleground for expansion by the EU or expansion by Russia. The core point is that Putin wants as many countries around him aligned to his outlook and ethos. As does the EU - a few posts above talk about Ursula wanting Ukraine in the EU. So this is very much about “winning” Ukraine as an ally. And it’s precisely that which is what is driving the firmness of the response to Russia around the world.

What is really at stake here? The right of people to choose how they live, both as a society and as individuals. That’s exactly what autocrats, dictators, prophets and nutters from everywhere cannot accept. The EU going all in so publicly is nuts as well, even juvenile if you like, and opening to doomsday… yet the existential threat to our way of living is there, full blown: tanks, saboteurs, missiles, nuclear thretas. Once we let Ukraine go, who is the next? Which example would we provide to them, having let one down before?

 

[Rightnr]

Well, what the guy did is technically illegal but still gave me a bit of a laugh.

 

[VanDeBank]

How so?

Wouldn't bother getting them started, seems like a thing to try and compare situations or take away what is happening. People just can't stay on subject.

It's not my opinion, but it's quite clearly the point OP was making, which is what @Stanley Road seemed to be asking about.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

The NATO reason is not as important as some of you make out to try and justify Russia’s actions.

this is all on Putin. His statements about removing nazis, removing weapons and not recognizing ukraine as a sovereign country say more about his prejudices, his insanity than it does any worries about NATO. He’s literally making up reasons to go to war. His reasons aren’t consistent. So let’s stop pretending it’s about NATO when clearly it’s not. This is about a madman in power, who’s trying to bully others into living in the past like him.

Its not just about him being a mad man in power. I think there are two reasons. One, if Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, Moscow will be very close and very vulnerable to any future attack from the West, with plain land and no mountains for protection etc in between, with Ukraine under his control Moscow is well protected by Ukraine from the West and the Black sea from the South. And two, he gets Ukraine's Oil Depots, stops paying rent for pipelines and also reopens the water supply to Crimea.

 

[Frosty]

I do wonder if this invasion happens if NATO does not exist.

Maybe. Or maybe the Baltic States are also targeted.

 

[VorZakone]

Nothing I said disproves your assertion tbf mate. I agree with you, it certainly indicative of the whole country being rabidly fascist, but the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian military actively tweeting something which refers to Muslims in the pejorative (let alone what their actions were in the video itself) is pretty noteworthy, no?

Forgive me for saying it but dude, their country is at fecking war. They didn't go to the Chechens, the Chechens came to them.

Yes, there are extreme far right types in Ukraine and the country is gonna fecking need them. It is what it is.

No country is 100% perfect. And nobody will praise it either. This is war and such rhetoric will happen whether we like it or not. Do we have to dwell on it?

 

[Smithy89]

I do wonder if this invasion happens if NATO does not exist.

More I’d say, only reason he hasn’t touched the likes of Estonia is because of NATO and the US.

 

[TMDaines]

I have to say, I am slightly uneasy about the very public support for Ukraine by the EU and the UK with regard to sending weapons and effectively waging a proxy war. I agree with the actions but I wonder about the wisdom of advertising it so openly.

It just gives the madman an excuse to curse at the clouds and the perceived slights against him and Russia in the past. Again, I don't think less public expression of support would do much to change his mind but it somewhat seems to me that politicians in the EU and the UK are using this as a bit of a PR opportunity based on the wide-ranging public support.

I really don’t think the EU and UK are supporting Ukraine to the extent they are because of a PR opportunity. A PR opportunity is Boris Johnson turning up at a Ukrainian Greek Orthodox church to do a speech, or Liz Truss looking like a dickhead in front of a Ukrainian flag. The West is doing this because we are seeing the true emergence of Putin as a level of threat to global peace as Hitler was. Putin’s Russia will be entirely ostracised whilst he remains in charge or Russian troops remain on internationally recognised Ukrainian soil.

If you want to get a good understanding of just what a significant moment this is in European and global history, you need to watch the German Chancellor’s speech today. Germany within a week have basically ripped up their entire post-1945 foreign and defence policy, with near unanimous support from the government and opposition, because of the potential severity of this.

2022 has already said “hold my beer” to the events of 2020 and 2021. These are truly the most historic days of many of our lives.

 

[berbatrick]

I'm a bit confused about who made it originally, I thought the Russians did for their space program.

It was indeed built for the Soviet space program, to transport shuttles. It was completed at around the same time as the USSR collapsed, I don't know if it ever did anything more than test flights in Soviet colours.
The bureau that designed it, Antonov, was based in Ukraine (unlike Mig, Sukhoi and Tupolev, which were also Soviet aviation design bureaus, but based in Russia).

 

[RoadTrip]

Agreed, but I was thinking more of a China/Russia/Saudi/Brazil/India type coalition. The fact that those countries are probably the only countries that haven't condemned Russia yet leave me a bit worried that it could all be a plan and in fact we are looking at the start of a ww.

You also have Saudi refusing to pump more oil and stick by the Russian backed Opec+ deal, it's a little worrying.

Still not possible. Financial markets are a hugely complex ecosystem. You can’t just stop using a currency. To finance, to invest, you do all of this through financial centres and to access those centres you need dollars. For countries to stop using dollars they’d not only need to establish an alternative currency to take its place, they’d need to effectively create a new financial hub and not only that, convince global investors to use that financial hub and their alternative currency.

 

[Sarni]

We can't nullify it, that's a simple fact.

However we might be sure that the troops wouldn't fulfill the order to actually use nuclear weapons. It is likely that western intelligence knows quite well how the Russian army leaders think. We might be trying to force their hand to get rid of Putin and end this madness.

This is the only thing that eases my anxiety a little here. US intelligence has been bang on about virtually everything so far, they must be aware of how real the nuclear threat is.

 

[carvajal]

Other reasons that I recently read about Putin's interest in Ukraine, in addition to those most commonly mentioned, are its mineral reserves (Manganese, mercury, gas, iron, titanium) and its agricultural power.
I knew that they produced a lot of cereal but was not aware of how much. In any case, I don't think it´s his main motivation.

 

[Skåre Willoch]

 

[RoadTrip]

What is really at stake here? The right of people to choose how they live, both as a society and as individuals. That’s exactly what autocrats, dictators, prophets and nutters from everywhere cannot accept. The EU going all in so publicly is nuts as well, even juvenile if you like, and opening to doomsday… yet the existential threat to our way of living is there, full blown: tanks, saboteurs, missiles, nuclear thretas. Once we let Ukraine go, who is the next? Which example would we provide to them, having let one down before?

Which is basically what I’m saying, isn’t it? Ukraine is the poor country in the middle. But really this is, as you say, about the core principal of Russia vs the EU and expanding / protecting their way of life. Ukraine is the unfortunate battleground this is being played out in. Thanks to a madman on Moscow.

 

[Rightnr]

I really don’t think the EU and UK are supporting Ukraine to the extent they are because of a PR opportunity. A PR opportunity is Boris Johnson turning up at a Ukrainian Greek Orthodox church to do a speech, or Liz Truss looking like a dickhead in front of a Ukrainian flag. The West is doing this because we are seeing the true emergence of Putin as a level of threat to global peace as Hitler was. Putin’s Russia will be entirely ostracised whilst he remains in charge or Russian troops remain on internationally recognised Ukrainian soil.

If you want to get a good understanding of just what a significant moment this is in European and global history, you need to watch the German Chancellor’s speech today. Germany within a week have basically ripped up their entire post-1945 foreign and defence policy, with near unanimous support from the government and opposition, because of the potential severity of this.

2022 has already said “hold my beer” to the events of 2020 and 2021. These are truly the most historic days of many of our lives.

I get the historic aspect of it, I am questioning the execution.

The EU loves being transparent and that's well and good if you are not dealing with a madman (or someone playing the role to that effect).

I've always been one for sticking the knife in quietly and letting my actions do the talking.

In any case, I much rather public support be communicated than it not being there at all.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Yep, I find it strange people jumping to the defence of Putin when he has as much as threatened nuclear war only several hours ago.

Putin is like that one arsehole you see in a pub every weekend, messing with folk just so he's got an excuse to fight them. He's walking around spilling people's pints over, pinching women's arses, laughing obnoxiously, routinely encroaching on their airspace in the North Sea, and when it doesn't work he eventually resorts to pushing around who he thinks is the smallest guy in the room.

And it turns out that this small guy is actually a ninjutsu grandmaster or, in this case, a country inhabited by 44 million Terminators.

 

[Smores]

Just posturing I'd assume. Is their really much need for nukes in Belarus?

 

[RoadTrip]

Escalating quickly.

 

[Frosty]

Question - I know Zelensky is in Kiev along with the Government, but are there any figures outside the city who could continue the fight if Kiev was fully taken by Russian forces?

 

[sullydnl]

I just made a post above. I’m not jumping to his defence but Putin very clearly has a general fear of the west and he clearly thinks they want to make Russia irrelevant. To be clear not saying that’s the case in reality, but it’s foolish to suggest he doesn’t believe it. So, the point I’m making is I very much understand WHY he wants Ukraine in his pocket. And why he is doing what he is doing.That’s different to saying it’s based on real facts. And in any case, as I said above, that in no way gives him any right to invade them. Fighting for their allegiance through diplomatic channels is one thing - and frankly no different to what any country does. But invading them for it? That’s obviously not acceptable and he’s rightly getting condemned for it.

The adjunctive point I would make is that aside from any power-balance fears that may drive his attitude towards Ukranian allegiance on a tactical basis, there also seems doctrine of Russian superiority at play that has little to do with fear of the west. As indicated by portions of his recent speeches, Putin fundamentally doesn't regard Ukraine as a real state. Even if there wasn't geopolitical considerations at play in regards to the west, one suspects that a large degree of contempt for the country and desire to re-establish Russian control over it would still exist and drive Russian policy towards Ukraine.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

It was indeed built for the Soviet space program, to transport shuttles. It was completed at around the same time as the USSR collapsed, I don't know if it ever did anything more than test flights in Soviet colours.
The bureau that designed it, Antonov, was based in Ukraine (unlike Mig, Sukhoi and Tupolev, which were also Soviet aviation design bureaus, but based in Russia).

I see, I just thought that Moscow/Russia were the ones planning and financing the program, so they would keep it after the dissolution.

 

[RoadTrip]

Question - I know Zelensky is in Kiev along with the Government, but are there any figures outside the city who could continue the fight if Kiev was fully taken by Russian forces?

It’s a big country with a huge population. Kiev falling would not be the end. But it’d be a significant blow to morale across Ukraine. It’s entirely unreasonable though to think that this ends with Russian occupation with a compliant populace. It’s just too big for that. There will always be resistance, I think. The question over time would be to what extent.

 

[rotherham_red]

Forgive me for saying it but dude, their country is at fecking war. They didn't go to the Chechens, the Chechens came to them. And there's Chechens themselves fighting against the Russians, not for the Russians.

Yes, there are extreme far right types in Ukraine and the country is gonna fecking need them. No country is 100% perfect. Christ.

Ok, so let me get this straight, and just so we're all on the same page, what you're saying is, in war people do terrible things like say, hijack airlines and bomb themselves to kingdom come, but that's all ok as it's during war time?

If the, in your view, legitimate excuse is that "their country is at fecking war" why did the Palestinians ALWAYS get vilified in the second intifada for acts and sentiments that were of a similar pale?

I genuinely can't believe I'm seeing someone in 20 fecking 22 come to the defence of literal Nazis cos "they're on our side". It's galaxy brained thinking like that in the Afghan War in the 80s which caused the likes of Al Qaida and ISIS to rise, you do know that, don't you?

 

[Skåre Willoch]

Just posturing I'd assume. Is their really much need for nukes in Belarus?

No idea, they probably have nukes in Kaliningrad anyway. But it’s a big move nonetheless, maybe more so by Belarus than Russia.