Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

As for the Anonymous/hackng comments. It wouldn't surprise me at all if more serious and effective efforts were Western government organisations and passed off as Anonymous.

And even DDOS attacked and other kiddy hacker activities can have a serious effect if there are enough of them.
 
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Paxi said:
They have greatly underestimated Ukrainian people. I mean this shit have been happening for time immemorial. How people become generals I have no fecking idea.
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In this case I don't think it's that. All signs point to Putin pushing this.

Western defence attaches have claimed that Valery Gerasimov, Putin’s most senior commander and the chief of the general staff of Russia’s armed forces, had warned the president that invading Ukraine might not be straightforward. And so it has proved. For now, though, Russia’s military and political leadership are firmly behind the operation.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/how-ukrainian-defiance-has-derailed-putins-plans
 
North Korea and Kim are just unhappy they are not getting enough attention.

 
nimic said:
The Norwegian PM is now considering sending weapons to Ukraine, which he as late as yesterday said he wouldn't do. It's been Norwegian policy for over half a century not to sell arms to countries who are involved in war. As far as I know this is also the reason for Germany's tardiness. No matter how this war turns out, it will definitely have changed Europe in both small and big ways.
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It will not be weapons. Weapons is not allowed to export to active conflict areas by Norwegian law. It is not just policy. They are now looking over a wish list from Ukraine to see what they can send. Otherwise, the law has to be changed to allow weapons to be sent. I am not certain what we could send if we changed the law either. Nasams is not feasible but would really make an impact. Javelins, M72's maybe. But it is going to be non lethal equipment unless the law is changed. There must be need for protection gear, medical equipment, electronic equipment etc. too. We sell a lot of ammunition and missiles but now when we really SHOULD give away to a friend in need, then it is not allowed. I guess the lawmakers never thought about a scenario like this.
 
Revan said:
I think this was the doctrine in the sixties and seventies.
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Agreed, and I'm no expert by any means, but from what I've read, the strategy was still relevant and similar today regarding a Balkan invasion. Happy to hear alternate takes though, and appreciate it!
 
Wibble said:
As for the Anonymous/hacking comments. It wouldn't surprise me at all if more serious and effective efforts were Western government organisations and passed off as Anonymous.
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Agreed
 
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0161_UNITED said:
True, and also false. It's very possible the Russians underestimated the solidarity of the West, and essentially banked on it. None of us know.
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It's not. You'd plan for/assume the possibility of worst case scenario. It would be factored in to any strategy where it was even a remote possibility. They might have hoped to avoid it but there's no way in hell they wouldn't be prepared for it
 
Cardboard elk said:
It will not be weapons. Weapons is not allowed to export to active conflict areas by Norwegian law. It is not just policy. They are now looking over a wish list from Ukraine to see what they can send. Otherwise, the law has to be changed to allow weapons to be sent. I am not certain what we could send if we changed the law either. Nasams is not feasible but would really make an impact. Javelins, M72's maybe. But it is going to be non lethal equipment unless the law is changed. There must be need for protection gear, medical equipment, electronic equipment etc. too. We sell a lot of ammunition and missiles but now when we really SHOULD give away to a friend in need, then it is not allowed. I guess the lawmakers never thought about a scenario like this.
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I doubt our laws will be changed quickly enough to allow us to ship weapon systems in time, sadly.
 
Cardboard elk said:
It will not be weapons. Weapons is not allowed to export to active conflict areas by Norwegian law. It is not just policy. They are now looking over a wish list from Ukraine to see what they can send. Otherwise, the law has to be changed to allow weapons to be sent. I am not certain what we could send if we changed the law either. Nasams is not feasible but would really make an impact. Javelins, M72's maybe. But it is going to be non lethal equipment unless the law is changed. There must be need for protection gear, medical equipment, electronic equipment etc. too. We sell a lot of ammunition and missiles but now when we really SHOULD give away to a friend in need, then it is not allowed. I guess the lawmakers never thought about a scenario like this.
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Laws can be changed, and I don't see why this one wouldn't be.
 
No announcements from Putin yet? For someone who is fighting neo nazis he's awfully quiet.
 
FriedClams said:
I think if you are going to say something like that in this thread, which has a new page every ten minutes or so, then the onus should be on you to share a link alongside the statement.
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Fair, although I’d encourage you to back channel every link on here rather than think ‘link = fact’. It was widely reported as well so assumed easy to quickly cross reference.
 
VorZakone said:
In this case I don't think it's that. All signs point to Putin pushing this.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/how-ukrainian-defiance-has-derailed-putins-plans
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Right but Putin isn’t a military strategist. He should have absolutely no say in the “how and when”. Guys under him need to be coordinated. I’m assuming that’s Shoygu whom is above them all. Interesting choice considering he has never served a day in his life.

Of course Putin will push this. He has been briefed relentlessly I bet that Ukraine will just roll over and show its belly. We both could be right and we both could be wrong in certain respects but Russian military is a joke.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Sorry someone else did though above - was widely reported
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just be mindful. There are a lot of people choosing to get their updates on this crisis from this forum, and such a direct statement could cause some unnecessary fear and alarm. The initial statement could be interpreted as North Korea launching a missive at someone, but in reality it’s a non story.
 
UncleBob said:
I doubt our laws will be changed quickly enough to allow us to ship weapon systems in time, sadly.
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Ny thought too.. Our state affairs are far too beuracratic. But at least we hopefully can help with other necessary military equipment.
 
While this is plainly not going as planned is there any real possibility of Putin being overthrown? Is there any real internal opposition in places of sufficient power?
 
RedTiger said:
Hard to say. Kicking a major nation like Russia out of Swift will have knock-on effects for the world economy. I bet Putin didn't think they'd do it but it seems everyone realises that this might actually be a major precipice for clipping Russia's wings.
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They've been preparing for SWIFT being used politically, everyone has since Iran and the US imposing it's will. The issue is the alternatives aren't as good but last i read SWIFT was only modelled as a few percent GDP impact.

People are overestimating it's impact compared to actual full blown banking sanctions. Those are what will really hurt Russia as they make even the alternatives suddenly very difficult to achieve.

It's difficult to believe Putin wouldn't have assumed the west would impose heavy sanctions. I just don't think he cares about hardship being imposed on his countrymen.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
They have definitely considered it in advance:
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Europe have okayed disconnecting certain banks from SWIFT, so consider it done and approved. At least half of CB reserves will be frozen. Good luck supporting ever falling ruble. They will not be able to get loans from US and EU which will be a huge mess. Looking at how irritated the Russian MFA's spokesperson has been lately, it seems that nobody was prepared for this. Or everybody knew everything, but Putin was caught in bad mood and decided to burn every bloody thing down.
 
Why are russians using dark to up the ante, when they're fighting in enemy territory, who know their terrain and surroundings?
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Fair, although I’d encourage you to back channel every link on here rather than think ‘link = fact’. It was widely reported as well so assumed easy to quickly cross reference.
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it’s not that link = fact. It’s just more context within your post I.e. a verified link, means any anxiety won’t last as long as reading that North Korea got involved and launched a missile.
 
noodlehair said:
It's not. You'd plan for/assume the possibility of worst case scenario. It would be factored in to any strategy where it was even a remote possibility. They might have hoped to avoid it but there's no way in hell they wouldn't be prepared for it
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All due respect, @noodlehair, you are right in some ways, and also wrong. They may have all the information, but it doesn't mean they'll accept it. Too many instances where the man in charge won't be considering that. History is littered with leaders who make decisions and decide to reject that intelligence and information that doesn't fit their point of view. Hitler and Napoleon invading Russia in the Winter (it doesn't require a rocket scientist to tell you that's a bad idea), GW Bush and Blair in Iraq, Trump (basically every f*cking day, it's everywhere. Nobody knows if Putin is a rational actor at this point, and quite a few people want to give him, and the Russians, more credit than the deserve, in my opinion.
 
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Wibble said:
While this is plainly not going as planned is there any real possibility of Putin being overthrown? Is there any real internal opposition in places of sufficient power?
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Navalny is imprisoned. The Oligarchs won't muster much because I suspect a lot of their assets are diversified out of the country. Yes they will be hit but not to a state where they don't have money.

Sounds crazy but I think the only way he can be overthrown is by the people? We've just come out of Covid and people are hoping to get on with life now. A collapse in Russia will be too much to just sit there and not say anything.
 
matherto said:
Putin could easily spin it as NATO aggression taken too far against training exercises, even gives him an out for all the dead bodies too.

If we try and enforce a no fly zone then out of the silos/into their positions come the nukes. It's really that simple. Unfortunately if that means he shells Kyiv to smithereens then that's his want.

The world will watch on in horror if he does because shelling civilians is barbaric and a war crime but it's better than nuclear war.

I suppose the counter argument is that you pull the nukes out and he stops because of MAD, but it takes one slip then, one misinterpretation and we're all fecked.
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Nah. Its this attitude of "cant do anything to piss off Vlad or out come the nukes" that enables his entire strategy. It only works because people believe it. If a few Russian jets get shot down over Kyiv, thats not a reason for nuclear war.

As someone else put it, how many British planes would need to get shot out of the sky before Bojo would be saying "nuke em"? Ditto USA or anyone else. If Putin launches nukes, the rest of the world collectively launches nukes back. Its called mutually assured destruction for a reason.

Putin and his inner circle are not such lunatics that they will die, and have their country destroyed, over the sake of losing air superiority above Ukraine. Putin likes people to believe that he is insane enough to do it, because thats his strategy, and so far it has worked. He isnt that stupid, the whole thing is a charade, designed to intimidate opponents into submission and non-resistance, and for every nation that buys into the pantomime, the more it is working.
 
Wibble said:
While this is plainly not going as planned is there any real possibility of Putin being overthrown? Is there any real internal opposition in places of sufficient power?
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After we witnessed him bullying his spy chief...I'm pessimistic.
 
FriedClams said:
it’s not that link = fact. It’s just more context within your post I.e. a verified link, means any anxiety won’t last as long as reading that North Korea got involved and launched a missile.
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I’d hope if North Korea were launching a missile at someone, we wouldn’t find out on redcafe! But all good, I get the point.
 
Rightnr said:
Erm, so Putin is deranged and crazy and looks to be bullying people into an invasion but apparently everything else is sorted? Allow me to put a big question mark over this.

I am sure he's had scenarios and all the associated war games but I seriously get the sense he relied on a lot more division, especially in the EU. And one major reason is that there is huge ground support for punishing Russia which enables political decisions to be much more swift.
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Is there any actual evidence that Putin has gone crazy other than some propaganda Twitter posts?

I can believe he hoped for more division in Ukraine itself but the idea the western allies wouldn't rally strongly against him is completely dumb considering its behind the reason for launching an invasion in the first place.

The idea he's just suddenly gone mad and that he'd launch a literally huge international military operation without any planning or strategising is even dumber.

Things that happen on the ground in a war are hard to predict and plan for. Things like sanctions and reactions from other states are not hard to predict or plan for. You'd assume worst case and strategise from that, the same as with any other crisis or emergency planning.
 
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