Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Yep it's a military doctrine called deep battle. Unlike traditional blitzkrieg, where you have one major attack to pierce the opponent's defenses, in deep battle you start by making a lot of small attacks along the entire front, you then find the weak point and then devote a ton of fresh reserves to exploit that weakness.

Interesting, didn’t know the name but knew they are unconventional. Why do they go this route?
 
Are the Germans and Italians going to agree to the SWIFT sanctions or not?

This is going to impact everyone but they need to get with the program and stay consistent with the rest of Europe and the US.

The US didn't want to use SWIFT as a sanction last I read. It'll mainly impact them rather than Germany and Italy.

Russia will just process through proxies and their own settlement system.
 
Interesting, didn’t know the name but knew they are unconventional. Why do they go this route?

Because it's what the Russians have done since the early Soviet Union. It allows them to use their massive advantage in men and materiel that they usually have in most conflicts.
 
Some here trying to sound smart attempting to find grey areas, not knowing shit about Eastern Europe. Absolute clowns the lot of you.

Most of the east was occupied by Russia for half a decade, these were free countries. Through violence and lies they took over the Baltics, shipped us to Siberia for hard labor, forced us to serve in their military, sent us to their wars and to clean up their mistake in Chernobyl. Tried to replace locals with russians, forcing us to speak their langague. Then it began to fall apart and everyone knew it was going to. Yet, Russia sent their tanks in the reverse the process.

Now they've been accusing us of whatever and threating us with whatever, while Russia itself has turned into some extreme nationalist oligarchy. Attacked Georgia, took over Crimea. Is it really a surprise that we wanted to join the EU and NATO? Or that Ukraine does? And then some great western thinkers on RedCafe, in their comfy armchairs, are saying "iTs CoMpLiCaTeD iTs GeOpOLiTiCs".

Do feck off.

What logic is there to say "USA did this, warmongering cnuts, time to support Putin now, because USA and NATO".

You don't sound edgy or smart, you sound stupid.
 
Many of those states have joined, some have stayed in the orbit of Russia, not exactly sure what you're on about?
I responded to your question.

Ukraine has been wanting to join NATO for years. It became more realistic last year, I think. Why didn't NATO immediately accept or reject the proposal? Now Ukraine is left to defend for itself. This just seem a little off to me. And I'm very emotional because my buddies are being killed in Ukraine.
 

That show is an abomination. Anyone that pays attention to that show in Russia is a lost cause in terms of propaganda anyway — they’ve been indoctrinated a long, long time ago.
 
Some here trying to sound smart attempting to find grey areas, not knowing shit about Eastern Europe. Absolute clowns the lot of you.

Most of the east was occupied by Russia for half a decade, these were free countries. Through violence and lies they took over the Baltics, shipped us to Siberia for hard labor, forced us to serve in their military, sent us to their wars and to clean up their mistake in Chernobyl. Tried to replace locals with russians, forcing us to speak their langague. Then it began to fall apart and everyone knew it was going to. Yet, Russia sent their tanks in the reverse the process.

Now they've been accusing us of whatever and threating us with whatever, while Russia itself has turned into some extreme nationalist oligarchy. Attacked Georgia, took over Crimea. Is it really a surprise that we wanted to join the EU and NATO? Or that Ukraine does? And then some great western thinkers on RedCafe, in their comfy armchairs, are saying "iTs CoMpLiCaTeD iTs GeOpOLiTiCs".

Do feck off.

What logic is there to say "USA did this, warmongering cnuts, time to support Putin now, because USA and NATO".

You don't sound edgy or smart, you sound stupid.
Respect. i am with you. Well said and couldnt agree more
 
Which is a bad joke on two fronts. We spent between 30 and 40 billion every year on our military, that's not nothing. We probably have to increase that spending, but there is really no excuse to be in this state with a budget like that, absolute none, I have no idea where the money goes but apparently not into the equipment of the soldiers, so questions have to be asked what our military spends their money on, absolute travesty.

The financial structure and the budget are a joke! Modern military in a highly developed country costs a lot more than we were willing to spend. Abolishing mandatory military service, creating a culture of anti patriotism and a society that is so spoiled by peace and economical power that it looks down on anything military related creates exactly this situation. Our military is in absolute shambles and it's hardly a surprise, it's systematic failure over literally decades. Our left leaning course over the last 20 years adds to that as well - we were naive, as we thought the US would always guarantee european security. But now that the day has come, some really are surprised that we lack military power. It's unbelievable, really. I am quite furious, honestly. We did everything to dismantle our military and now we see the results: being toothless. And make no mistake, even if we triple our budget, we won't become a military power over night. These things take many years to actually work. In the highly unlikely event that society AND the government actually realises this crisis and we start spending much, much, much more, we will still need around 3-5 years to have a considerable force.
Anecdotal example: around 30-40% of our military helicopters are actually ready to use. It's just one number but it represents the problem as a whole. Our military is absolute shit and will always be. We lack qualified personnel (no one who's highly qualified wants to join the german military bar very few example in the highest command!), functioning equipment, modern equipment, social recognition and - don't get me wrong on this part - military pride and identity. The historical break after world war 2 and our very important and absolutely necessary Erinnerungskultur has made it so we think more about after whom our military bases are named after but how they are run. Our military has no real identity, as any identification with our former military will only result in public outrage.
 
I responded to your question.

Ukraine has been wanting to join NATO for years. It became more realistic last year, I think. Why didn't NATO immediately accept them then? Now Ukraine is left to defend itself. This just seem a little off to me. And I'm very emotional because my buddies are being killed in Ukraine.

You can't join NATO if you have a border dispute and the simple fact is that Putin/Russia's aggression on the matter meant that it was too dangerous.
 
So will Russia actually claim any new territory after this? (Like everything east the Dnieper River? Or will they not stop there?) Or are they just going to instill a puppet regime in Ukraine?

Thing is I always look at Russia on a map and think to myself, "that country just isn't big enough..."
Unknown at this point. Soldiers have raised Russian flags above buildings yesterday so partial annexation of Ukraine is not out of the question in my opinion. They’ll not go for Western Ukraine though — I’m sure of that.

Most likely scenario is Western/Eastern Ukraine with Kiev being controlled by the Russians imo.
 
Shoutout to the Ukrainian firefighters still being heroes and the civilians taking up arms to defend their country, respect.
 
Yeah but you’ll want to go Asia through Russian airspace.

It's not a huge deal to take the Polar route and go over the Arctic Circle instead. Some aircraft already do it in winter.
 
Yeah that's the fecking problem, the money goes straight into the pockets of Frau von der Leyen's adviser buddies. This shite needs to be cleaned up asap.
No, thats not where the money goes (at least not enough of it to be the real problem).
The main problem is, that to much money is used for bad contracts with suppliers to support companies (Airbus, Heckler&Koch etc.), do structural support in weak regions in Germany and support an enormous administrational overhead of the Bundeswehr to pander to them as a voter base. And both main partys (SPD and CDU/CSU) have done that over decades and instead of keeping the Bundeswehr ready to fulfill its main function.
 
Unknown at this point. Soldiers have raised Russian flags above buildings yesterday so partial annexation of Ukraine is not out of the question in my opinion. They’ll not go for Western Ukraine though — I’m sure of that.

Most likely scenario is Western/Eastern Ukraine with Kiev being controlled by the Russians imo.

Think this map does a good job of outlining what the likely goals are, in line with what you said (you may have even posted this earlier since it's from Kofman):
 
Am I right in saying that Ukrainian forces are picking up wins on a level that mightn't have been expected?

Russia have only used a small proportion of their forces thus far, is it possible that they've sent in their less esteemed soldiers nearly as guinea pigs before a larger, more effective attack?

Or could this be just what happens when soldiers don't have a cause they believe in?

Many questions. Still can't believe this is even happening.
 
It's not a huge deal to take the Polar route and go over the Arctic Circle instead. Some aircraft already do it in winter.
I was making a point that it wasn’t about going to Russia that was the problem and it is a problem.
 
How did Russians breach Kyiv already?

Because they are only 50 mile from the Russian border to start with I guess.

They are not in yet though and when they are will be the most dangerous time for them, unfortunately it may result in a humanitarian nightmare too.
 
No worries. If you have a twitter I can give you the name of a few good journalists/reports on the ground. You can keep up with it much better
Sure go on ahead. Post for everyone here so they can get the love too.
 
I was making a point that it wasn’t about going to Russia that was the problem and it is a problem.

Of course. For the flights alone it's further and will cost more in fuel, but Russia closing it's airspace doesn't cut the West off from Asia entirely.
 
It's a shame war has to involve weaponry, should just be thousands having a good old fashioned straightener.
 
Am I right in saying that Ukrainian forces are picking up wins on a level that mightn't have been expected?

Russia have only used a small proportion of their forces thus far, is it possible that they've sent in their less esteemed soldiers nearly as guinea pigs before a larger, more effective attack?

Or could this be just what happens when soldiers don't have a cause they believe in?

Many questions. Still can't believe this is even happening.

Overconfidence and poor tactics is giving Ukrainians a small set of victories but should he decide to ramp up, sheer numbers will take the country.
 


What I don't get about this is the total lack of leverage right now. Russia clearly thinks it can successfully establish a puppet regime and then leave the country. Why would they feel the need to stop and negotiate now? Feels like desperation unfortunately
 
Of course. For the flights alone it's further and will cost more in fuel, but Russia closing it's airspace doesn't cut the West off from Asia entirely.
Yeah absolutely. I mean Russians also said British airlines which means a lot of airlines can still go to London and back to Asia as usual.
 
I have no idea what audience they are playing to. If you're pro-putin, you don't care about the slaughter of innocents. If your anti-putin Russian, your using a VPN and twitter.
There's loads of people that fall in the middle with disinformation. Trump, Brexit and much more in the last 10 years taught us that.