Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[berbatrick]

He wants to recreate the Soviet Union and take back everything he feels belongs to him. That's it. He's a tyrant who wants more power. Thinking he won't do this or that or it won't be that bad is just being naive. Start looking at him like how people think about Hitler. It is the same.

He wants to recreate it, but without the union bit (or the soviet part of course). the "union" specifically seemed to be his problem with it - that it was, at least on paper, a union of republics rather than just "russia."

 

[Sarni]

Explains why they have moved 100 000 troops on the Polish border then with Intel suggesting Poland is next. Stop burying your head in the sands

I don’t think there’s 100k troops on our border.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

Nah he's a nutter now. He's using reasoning even die hard Russian patriots are finding hard to defend. He's demoralising his country with this, and making sure the countries around him who have the option will invest in military and never believe him again. He might gain momentarily but there is no way he gains from this long term.

by no means he is a nutter. It is not his character. He is a calculating and cold blooded psychopath, though.

 

[sport2793]

Nah he's a nutter now. He's using reasoning even die hard Russian patriots are finding hard to defend. He's demoralising his country with this, and making sure the countries around him who have the option will invest in military and never believe him again. He might gain momentarily but there is no way he gains from this long term.

First, see my updated post, I included timestamps of when people thought Putin would actually invade. Months before the actual invasion so one can't say it was unreasonable to expect Putin to invade, you just chose not to listen. Second, it's actually not clear that you understand what Putin's reasons are as the reasons he has cited certainly could be defended by die-hard Russian patriots. These people genuinely feel shame at the way the Soviet Union fell apart and how the world doesn't seem them as a great power anymore. Just because you think they are insane doesn't mean that these people dreaming back to an earlier time do not truly believe in their views. When looking at an adversary, one should never impose their own worldview on the other party, it just leads to miscalculation like we saw from certain EU leaders in the leadup to this conflict (and currently with the SWIFT controversy). There was plenty of evidence to back up that Putin could act in a psychopathic way (even going back to Chechnya), leaders have to be willing to educate themselves and use this knowledge in any interactions with the opposition figure.

This points to a larger issue: folks think that all countries are required to follow the rules-based international order and think that military power is irrelevant in this day and age. They unilaterally decide to live by this utopian view and expect others to go along with it just because. The reality is that this freedom to express such naivety is only guaranteed by US military might. Yet as someone pointed out earlier in the thread, one cannot always rely on the US to come to the aid of others. Hence, we should not be seeing the type of statements like those coming from the head of the German army, after 2014 Germany should have done much more to prepare itself for a European conflict but did not. This is why I ultimately hope that the current war finally will grant impetus to the much-needed improvements in European security.

 

[Abizzz]

Even an old crow like Biden knew that Putin could not be convinced. For the last few months, Biden was fairly confident even when the press was crying that diplomacy was the only solution that he believed that Putin would invade Ukraine: Biden predicts Russia will invade Ukraine, warns Putin | AP News. He said that on January 19th, more than a full month before the start of the invasion. Macron was trying to negotiate until what, three days ago? This in and of itself proves your bolded statement incorrect also, people really did think Putin would invade long before this. Analysts were saying it even before Biden: .

Perhaps no one is overstated. The problem with these warnings about this is that they are constantly warning against something, quite often about the countries they then expect to heed it when it's against the next country. There's a lack of trust that has gotten worse and worse over the past 20 years (and there was literally 0 trust as little as 2 years ago) towards US admins too.

by no means he is a nutter. It is not his character. He is a calculating and cold blooded psychopath, though.

People can become nutters with age. Especially if they are isolated and pampered.

First, see my updated post, I included timestamps of when people thought Putin would actually invade. Months before the actual invasion so one can't say it was unreasonable to expect Putin to invade, you just chose not to listen. Second, It's actually not clear that you understand what Putin's reasons are as the reasons he has cited certainly could be defended by die-hard Russian patriots. These people genuinely feel shame at the way the Soviet Union fell apart and how the world doesn't seem them as a great power anymore. Just because you think they are insane doesn't mean that these people dreaming back to an earlier time do not truly believe in their views. When looking at an adversary, one should never impose their own worldview on the other party, it just leads to miscalculation like we saw from certain EU leaders in the leadup to this conflict (and currently with the SWIFT controversy). There was plenty of evidence to back up that Putin could act in a psychopathic way (even going back to Chechnya), leaders have to be willing to educate themselves and use this knowledge in any interactions with the opposition figure.

This points to a larger issue: folks think that all countries are required to follow the rules-based international order and think that military power is irrelevant in this day and age. They unilaterally decide to live by this utopian view and expect others to go along with it just because. The reality is that this freedom to express such naivety is only guaranteed by US military might. We should not be seeing the type of statements like those coming from the head of the German army, after 2014 Germany should have done much more to prepare itself for a European conflict but did not.

Do you honestly want Germany to have intercontinental nuclear missiles? Because that's what it takes to go head to head with Putin. Everything else is a waste of energy when fighting someone who has them. Put your hand on your heart and tell me you're comfortable with it, or that either dems or republicans would accept it?

Edit: Also I'm having trouble keeping track of all the posts and edits, I've been awake far too long because of this, sorry if parts appear incoherent because of that.

 

[Varun]

Article on how Putin and Co look at sanctions

 

[sport2793]

Do you honestly want Germany to have intercontinental nuclear missiles? Because that's what it takes to go head to head with Putin. Everything else is a waste of energy when fighting someone who has them. Put your hand on your heart and tell me you're comfortable with it, or that either dems or republicans would accept it?

Edit: Also I'm having trouble keeping track of all the posts and edits, I've been awake far too long because of this, sorry if parts appear incoherent because of that.

No worries with regards to the edits, I should be better about including all my points initially. I personally would not mind Germany having ICBMs. After all, the French have them and even the Pakistanis of all people have at least medium-range nuclear tipped missiles. I really believe Germany went from one extreme (megalomaniac) before World War 2 to the other extreme (unrelenting pacifist) after World War 2 and missed the real lesson: military power in and of itself is not good or bad, it's how you use it that makes it one or the other. Plenty of people in the US have been begging for EU countries to pay more for their own defense, I think many here would at least welcome a fully functioning German and French military that at its best should be able to go toe to toe with Russia.

 

[the_cliff]

Embarrassing that Germany and Italy are so weak willled when it comes to removing Russia from SWIFT. Can't say the UK were much better with their relatively weak sanctions either.

They're the 2 countries in Europe that rely on Russia the most for gas imports. I think Netherlands is up there as well, not sure what's their view on the situation.

 

[led_scholes]

That's because the Soviet Union was a lost cause at that point. They had after all just come out of 70 years of hardcore communism that was undergirded by a highly corrupt KGB apparatus. There's a reason eastern European states had a much easier time transitioning into democracy after the cold war - they only had to deal with communism for 40 years. Post Soviet Russia was therefore doomed to take much longer, which was only exacerbated by the arrival of the rat who has managed to crown himself dictator for life.

What? Which country transioned better? Albania or Romania? The only reason some did better, is because West provided them with money. Russia lost territory and was treated like Germany after WWI.

 

[sport2793]

Looks like the Russians are closing in on Kyiv, CNN saying as close as 20 km from the city, I wonder what the UKR government will do:

 

[africanspur]

Macron should have just called out Putin for what he's doing and not engage in a sham negotiation.

He let Putin play him for a fool as the talks made Putin look like a legitimate party when Putin had no intention of holding his troops back, regardless of what anyone in the West said. Literally hours before the launch of the invasion Macron was celebrating that he had negotiated a summit with Biden and Putin that will now not happen. He's hopelessly out of his depth.

I'm sorry but I really fundamentally disagree with this. Diplomacy has to be tried at all costs to avoid war. If it doesn't work, then OK you need to act accordingly. You cannot act on an international stage though by just refusing to speak to Putin and brazenly calling him a liar.

Some people also seem to think that its somehow a privilege to speak to Western leaders, one reserved only for our friends. That again makes little sense to me and diplomacy is not there to have a chat with your friends and allies only.

What I did find strange were the French and Germans briefing persistently against the 'Anglo-Saxon' panic and not seeing where this perceived escalation came from, even as they themselves ramped up their own diplomatic efforts.

 

[Terminator]

It feels surreal seeing Russian tanks heading to Kyiv giving way to civilian cars.

 

[sport2793]

I'm sorry but I really fundamentally disagree with this. Diplomacy has to be tried at all costs to avoid war. If it doesn't work, then OK you need to act accordingly. You cannot act on an international stage though by just refusing to speak to Putin and brazenly calling him a liar.

Some people also seem to think that its somehow a privilege to speak to Western leaders, one reserved only for our friends. That again makes little sense to me and diplomacy is not there to have a chat with your friends and allies only.

What I did find strange were the French and Germans briefing persistently against the 'Anglo-Saxon' panic and not seeing where this perceived escalation came from, even as they themselves ramped up their own diplomatic efforts.

Diplomacy was not what Macron was doing, he was begging. One could say, "we are always willing to negotiate and talk as long as needed to stop a war, but we can only engage in good faith negotiations if the other party agrees to pull its troops back". Macron was lying to everyone about saying, for example, that a peace plan was in reach when he and others knew it was total nonsense: Ukraine crisis: Macron says a deal to avoid war is within reach - BBC News.

 

[africanspur]

What? Which country transioned better? Albania or Romania? The only reason some did better, is because West provided them with money. Russia lost territory and was treated like Germany after WWI.

In what ways was Russia treated like Germany post WW1?

 

[africanspur]

Diplomacy was not what Macron was doing, he was begging. One could say, "we are always willing to negotiate and talk as long as needed to stop a war, but we can only engage in good faith negotiations if the other party agrees to pull its troops back". Macron was lying to everyone about saying, for example, that a peace plan was in reach when he and others knew it was total nonsense: Ukraine crisis: Macron says a deal to avoid war is within reach - BBC News.

He wasn't begging, he was trying to avoid war on his own doorstep. The problem with your statement is that negotiations are not going to happen then. You can't only negotiate if the other side agrees to do what you want them to do, especially if you can't bully the other side like you can ala Iraq etc.

I don't know if the BBC have just made up the 'within reach' part for the headline but it doesn't appear anywhere else in the article. His direct quote is that he thinks a deal to avoid a full war in Ukraine is possible. Obviously all the states believed so, including Ukraine, otherwise there would have been literally no point in any negotiations at all.

 

[Beans]

One could actually say he hasn't gone insane and is acting in a very calculated way. He knew that no one would intervene militarily on Ukraine's behalf and knew that his military was strong enough to attempt to install a puppet regime. The West would never have agreed to his core demands, we knew it and he knew it. He coldly did the one thing he felt would be the most efficient solution to his problems w/r/t Ukraine.

Even an old crow like Biden knew that Putin could not be convinced. For the last few months, Biden was fairly confident even when the press was crying that diplomacy was the only solution that he believed that Putin would invade Ukraine: Biden predicts Russia will invade Ukraine, warns Putin | AP News. He said that on January 19th, more than a full month before the start of the invasion. Macron was trying to negotiate until what, three days ago? This in and of itself proves your bolded statement incorrect also, people really did think Putin would invade long before this. Analysts were saying it even before Biden: .

This is really excellent, I want to summarize his reasons Putin prefers a military solution to a diplomatic one:

-All talk of anyone on the border of Russia joining NATO will stop, along with any possible NATO troops or weapons deployments.

-Reinstates Russia's sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.

-Sanctions not an effective deterrent, economy more resilient now thanks to having to deal with previous sanctions as well as assistance from China, and overuse of sanctions has meant they expect them no matter what they do.

-Timing with high energy prices is ideal as it means little chance of energy sanctions.

-Karabakh War showed effectiveness of NATO weapons like TB2 drones, feared he would lose Donbas seperatist region, and Zekensky wasn't willing to budge diplomatically. Saakashvilli's push to take over Georgian seperatist areas, changing status quo, similarly lead to invasion.

-Fear of NATO expansion, justifiable or not, says any Russian leader from last 40 years would agree Belarus or Ukraine joining is a threat, as they have been the route for invasion from Europe in the past.

-Even without joining NATO the Ukraine is pro-western and could allow NATO deployment even without membership.

(Also Russia became head of the UN security council in February, I read.)

 

[Shakesy]

We'll hear more and more of this as Ukrainians get ever more desperate:

Zelensky: "This morning, we are defending our country alone. Just like yesterday, the most powerful country in the world looked on from a distance."

 

[berbatrick]

detailed look at the sanctions: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-86-about-those-sanctions?utm_source=url

So long as your energy-related transactions are channelled through non-sanctioned non-US financial institutions, for instance a European bank, you are in the clear.
...
The German government has pushed for an exemption for the energy sector if there is a move to block Russian banks from clearing U.S. dollar transactions, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. People familiar with recent discussions said other major western European nations hold similar views.
...
Nor are the carve-outs limited to energy, they apply to Russia’s agricultural commodity exports too. So long as the transactions run through non-US non-sanctioned banks, the US Treasury raises no objections.

So, if on “day one” we learned that SWIFT is a red herring, what can one say for the sanctions that the US has actually imposed?

The US has managed to sanction Cuba to the extent that they can't buy syringes for vaccines. But this...?

 

[Wibble]

Then American mindset has to change.

That isn't an American mindset. It is a Putin is a dangerous lunatic mindset. The sooner he is gone the better for all barring him and his cronies.

 

[sport2793]

We'll hear more and more of this as Ukrainians get ever more desperate:

Zelensky: "This morning, we are defending our country alone. Just like yesterday, the most powerful country in the world looked on from a distance."

It's hard not to be cynical, this guy was blaming the US for stoking tensions just a week ago and now he wants a military intervention: Ukrainian official tells CNN Biden's call with Ukrainian President 'did not go well' but White House disputes account - CNNPolitics; Ukraine leader says warnings of imminent Russian invasion are stoking 'panic' | The Times of Israel. But it is a hard situation that none of us would do better in to be fair.

 

[Wibble]

No the idea is to have UKR as a buffer client state, not to add more territory.

I'm calling bullshit. He could have negotiated Ukraine not being allowed to join NATO but chose not to.

 

[led_scholes]

In what ways was Russia treated like Germany post WW1?

A softer version of the Versailles Treaty was imposed on the them. Letting their economy to die, while moving fast to take away any potential ally for them; US wanted EU and Nato expansion on countries like Poland, while they supported Turkeys effort in the CARs. Russia was treated like a defeated power and the West was happy that a drunk, yes man was in charge.

 

[africanspur]

Still a lot of people who don't recognise Western atrocities.

Yes there are, which is incredibly regrettable and I will happily challenge anyone who lives in this fantasy world where the Western powers are squeaky clean and anyone else is automatically evil.

There are also Russians who don't recognise Russian atrocities, Turks who don't recognise Turkish atrocities, Chinese who won't recognise Chinese atrocities, Japanese who have no idea what they did in WW2, Saudis who won't recognise current Saudi atrocities etc etc etc. People are twats, not exactly ground breaking news.

No point in pretending that those conflicts happened without incredible pushback from the local populations though. The London protest was estimated to number at least 1 million people, 2% of England's entire population. Far far bigger than any protests happening now against the Russian war in London.

 

[sport2793]

I'm calling bullshit. He could have negotiated Ukraine not being allowed to join NATO but chose not to.

As has been stated a million times in this thread, the whole NATO Ukraine thing was not the primary reason he wanted to invade Ukraine. He wants to have a sphere of influence like Russia used to have and more importantly was intimidated by the prospect of a prosperous democracy on his doorstep providing a counterpoint to his own autocratic regime. He knew that Ukraine joining NATO was not going to realistically happen in the medium term.

 

[General_Elegancia]

For all Russian users, everyone always in your side. Stay safe and best wishes. You can contact me in pm, if you want some help especially in term of mental ( I will read and answer everyone for sure).

Redcafe community always besides you.

Best wishes and stay safe
❤❤

 

[Wibble]

Russia was treated like a defeated power and the West was happy that a drunk, yes man was in charge.

They were a defeated power. The problem is the West missed the opportunity to properly transition Russia away from authoritarian dictatorship.

 

[Beans]

It seems like appeasement to me, to not assist Ukraine fighting off Putin. Surely if it's "fair game" for Russia to go into Ukraine without the US or others launching nukes, then it's "fair game" for others to enter to defend the Ukraine, without Russia dropping nukes.

Borders don't matter much with nukes, they can launch from anywhere, so it won't really matter that the Ukraine is next to Russia, like it does for most weapons logistics (unless you want a nuclear first strike of course then you need to be close).

It must be that Europe doesn't believe Putin will go beyond Ukraine, or they would be rushing military spending bills through government.

I read about a political theory saying a leader of a country, for the purposes of international politics, should appear unhinged, so that others will not be able to predict what they will do, or expect a rational response. I often wondered if that was the reason for G.W. Bush's style, especially since he was dumb enough to convince you he's not acting rationality.

I think leaders are afraid to assist Ukraine with troops in part because Putin is seen as being "crazy", and they fear he'll attack them in return, when in reality this is probably very, very unlikely.

 

[Shakesy]

It's hard not to be cynical, this guy was blaming the US for stoking tensions just a week ago and now he wants a military intervention: Ukrainian official tells CNN Biden's call with Ukrainian President 'did not go well' but White House disputes account - CNNPolitics, Ukraine leader says warnings of imminent Russian invasion are stoking 'panic' | The Times of Israel. But it is a hard situation that none of us would do better in to be fair.

Yeah, it is hard...

I know that in the weeks leading up to the invasion Ukrainian media and Zelensky played down the possibility, because the public was starting to freak out. Some believed that was all Putin wanted to do - wage a war of fear.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

People can become nutters with age. Especially if they are isolated and pampered.

Do you honestly want Germany to have intercontinental nuclear missiles?

Yes, they can become that, but considering Putin's character, history and how everything unfolded to this point (starting with crimea, already pushing past what was seen as possible before, setting precedent), I don't think he's gone mental. One might deem his longterm strategy crazy, because of its immoral nature. But he himself is not crazy. The only - maybe even slightly pathological aspect - is his lust for hunger. He's so powerdriven and it seems like he can't stop. But his way of satisfying his hunger doesn't strike me as someone who's crazy, at least not in a pathological sense. I say that without having met him, obviously, and judging only by what I knew and have seen about him. From my personal experience as a lawyer, I can tell you, I've witnessed all kinds of craziness. Not on a world leader scale (would love to!), but on quite a huge range of human profiles. Just yesterday I had a meeting with a psychopathic client, as in, pathological psychopathic. You felt he's crazy after 1 sentence. Putin would certainly have a high score on a psychopathic test scale, but that's pretty normal for people in power positions. He's not gone mental, he's just fulfilling his longterm goals and dreams right now and since the west was weakened enough and the rather strong leaders (the likes of Bush, Obama or Merkel) are gone, China keeps on rising and mostly clowns are now governing the west, this was the time to strike. This isn't a spontaneous outbreak of a crazy dictator. It's a brutal autocrat following his interests.

Regarding intercontinental nuclear missiles in the hands of Germany: Since it's legally impossible to hold them, any discussion about it is as theoretical as getting help from Mars to solve the ukraine-russia conflict. But if we're talking in fantasy categories now, I would be heavily in favor of Germany as a nuclear power.

 

[sport2793]

Yeah, it is hard...

I know that in the weeks leading up to the invasion, Ukrainian media and Zelensky played down the possibility, because the public was starting to freak out. Some believed that was all Putin wanted to do - wage a war of fear.

There also is an argument to be made that Zelensky accepting the real possibility of a Russian invasion would have led to a panic in the streets and an even greater flight of economic capital, very tricky situation.

 

[Wibble]

As has been stated a million times in this thread, the whole NATO Ukraine thing was not the primary reason he wanted to invade Ukraine.

Primary is debatable. With someone who now seems so unstable that is hard to tell. The world needs him gone ASAP. Sadly I think that means limiting further Russian expansion until he is overthrow, assassinated or loses power due to old age. I suspect the later is most likely which will be painful for the world.

 

[africanspur]

A softer version of the Versailles Treaty was imposed on the them. Letting their economy to die, while moving fast to take away any potential ally for them; US wanted EU and Nato expansion on countries like Poland, while they supported Turkeys effort in the CARs. Russia was treated like a defeated power and the West was happy that a drunk, yes man was in charge.

I'm asking for specifics though. Very willing to be educated on this.

The aggressive NATO expansion eastwards I can get on board with, fine.

Otherwise the treaty of Versailles mandated that Germany take full responsibility for WW1, took away territory from it, forced them to disarm and enacted crippling reparations. What was equivalent to that in the collapse of the USSR?

 

[TMDaines]

Last night seemed to go as well as one could reasonably hope. One strike in Kyiv, and the damage may be due to defensive measures. Another long way day ahead and things can change quickly.

These counterattacks seem to have been spontaneous (not an organized plan for the whole country) but was still effective because of the surprise factor.

Yeah, Ukrainians are a bit too thick to have any military strategy…

The idea that they haven’t been preparing for this for years is just insulting. They will have sites they want to hold, ground they are willing to cede to take up superior defensive positions, and key pieces of infrastructure they will have counteroffensive plans to seize back, if they fall.

Edit: typo

 

[Shakesy]

There also is an argument to be made that Zelensky accepting the real possibility of a Russian invasion would have led to a panic in the streets and an even greater flight of economic capital, very tricky situation.

Yup... Now, as Ukraine falls under the might of Russia, the West will look on in shock and dismay as a country they support get obliterated. Images and videos of crying/dying people will make the global voyeurs feel guilty and utterly pointless.

 

[sport2793]

Primary is debatable. With someone who now seems so unstable that is hard to tell. The world needs him gone ASAP. Sadly I think that means limiting further Russian expansion until he is overthrow, assassinated or loses power due to old age. I suspect the later is most likely which will be painful for the world.

I would argue it really isn't that complicated. When one is talking about an autocrat, it always comes down to maintenance of power + money. Much of these current events arguably was precipitated by the real support Navalny had inside of Russia to oppose Putin's regime, to the point where Putin tried to poison him in a foreign country and then now has put him in prison on sham accusations. @Raoul has done a really good job of explaining these pro-democracy elements building in Russia. Now Putin sees a Ukraine that has had a couple of free elections and is working its way into the European community where many Russians would like to be, of course he sees that as a threat to his legitimacy. He now has the opportunity to "decommunise" and "denazify" this neighbor to restore his own legitimacy in his head.

 

[LARulz]

So what is the next step after sanctions? I know they kept some sanctions behind because they need at least 1 more step (plus selfish reasons I am sure)

But let's say they pull more sanctions out and nothing changes. Then what? Do they just let Ukraine vanish from the map? Hope he doesn't go to another non NATO/EU state? Military action is just something I cannot see unless he hits a NATO or EU nation

 

[Walrus]

As I said yesterday, Putin is the poker player who goes All-In every round, and the stakes are too high for anyone to call him, so he gets away with it.

If NATO sent troops to Ukraine, and publicly confirmed that they would be contained to defending Ukraine and not pushing into Russia, there would be no cause for escalation or nuclear war. I do not believe Putin is mad enough to do so unless there are foreign troops marching on Moscow and he has no other choice.

We cannot all just live in fear of Russian nukes should we lift a finger to anything he does. That is simply the scenario Putin wants and the one he has created. At some point or other, he is going to need to be tested, and I do not think he has such overwhelming home support that he could actually go through with it.

 

[padzilla]

It's funny how the US turns a blind eye when there is no money to be made from oil isn't it?

 

[TMDaines]

 

[TheLiverBird]

Ukrainian forces and people showing backbone and immense pride and bravery

Russias nose is bleeding