Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Maybe, this was always the plan? Attack like hell from everywhere in the hope that Ukraine disperse their forces, but the real target could be Kiev?

Did they really think they can capture Kiev?
 
Maybe, but with google earth, we already have what we need. Anything else is overkill

I could practically see your house from here, good luck concealing 100.000 soldiers.

It’s one thing to see the troop buildup, another to pre-empt Putin’s actions exactly to such extend that Putin has had to improvise.
 
Maybe, this was always the plan? Attack like hell from everywhere in the hope that Ukraine disperse their forces, but the real target could be Kiev?
Could be, and that's probably why Putin called it a 'special operation'. Because occupying a big country like Ukraine won't be easy, so makes sense to just go for the head and the rest would largely collapse. Russia did test the waters though on the first day and tried to invade with half-hearted efforts from the south and the north, but it only seem to have had good success in the South, as they met some resistance in Kharkiv.
 
Agree, there is a very lazy but popular opinion out there that they will use this time to attack Taiwan, which I find ridiculous.

China is very much China first, protect itself from every being raped and pillaged ever again, as it has been throughout its history. Siding with Russia in a potential world war does not do anything for its security and it would not want a leader such as Putin to succeed and expand. It does no harm to use and abuse him for now however as Putin needs China far far more than the other way around, they can name their price. If things escalate too much I think things would change though.

I have to say there are flaws in this rather optimistic point of view. Here are the reasons why many don't see any optimism for Taiwan unless Russia gets a very bad bloody nose in this conflict.

  1. Taiwan is the home of the remnants of the CCP's mortal enemies from before and after WW2. It's natural that the CPP would love to finish the job, especially when they have developed military capabilities to do so. And besides, Formosa (Taiwan's former name) was never in control of the CCP because of its Japanese colonial past prior to the Chinese Nationalists moving their government there.
  2. The prospect of controlling the entire semiconductor market by getting rid of Taiwanese control is very appealing as the world remains overdependent on TSMC.
  3. The only country that seems interested to send troops in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is Japan, but they are also stuck like Germany is towards Russia with the economy. Unless Japan decouples itself from China further, we have to consider that any military help would be extremely limited because of that mess called Article 9.
  4. China has a massive military industrial complex that begs for their products to be used on the battlefield and thus more money to come in for them in return. If Taiwan is not a perfect potential live testing ground for that weaponry while so close to home, why would anyone think they would first use that hrdware further away first?
  5. The exact words that Putin has used to describe Ukraine are perfectly in line with the CCP's stance on Taiwan. You would think that someone has been sharing forms of speech for both sides here.
  6. Last but not least, the rather weak reaction from the West so far will embolden the CCP down the road unless Ukraine itself resists the invasion to great effect.
The only difference between Ukraine and Taiwan is that there is an entire American fleet in the latter region still able to act as a deterrent for now, but that is only about it.

Brilliant move by the Russians, now having to occupy and defend that radioactive area.

Attaboy Russia, you fecking morons. I don't I've seen anything in history that was as dumb as this for a so-called strategic move. Furthermore, have those idiots not seen or read about how much had to be done to even contain the contamination in the first place?
 
Maybe, but with google earth, we already have what we need. Anything else is overkill

I could practically see your house from here, good luck concealing 100.000 soldiers.
Google Earth isnt real time.
 
This must be very familiar for Kostov. All the bombs raining down and anti aircraft and people getting killed.
 
This whole thing is unreal. Not only is there war in Europe in 2022, but we're watching live 24 hour coverage on social media. Seeing a conflict play out in ways that we've never had such access to before.

It's horrifying, like a bad dream. Most people are sheltered from war in the decadent west, we hear reports about it in far away lands and brush the awful reality under the carpet. Seeing developed, modern countries involved in a direct conflict, seeing western cities on fire, planes being shot down in the sky, it's absolutely unreal. I can't imagine what it must be like for those directly affected.
 
It’s one thing to see the troop buildup, another to pre-empt Putin’s actions exactly to such extend that Putin has had to improvise.

They have the analyst on CIA and pentagon. A full scale invasion like this would surely be analized to the nth degree, most of the scenarios and options are mapped. But I suspect some of the high profile "bugs" are in place somewhere within putin's circle.

Google Earth isnt real time.

Maybe, but the capabilities to see is there. Real time satellite images aren't exactly state of the art.
 
I don’t know enough so forgive me if this is a stupid question, but looking longer term, if Putin is overthrown and Russia gets a chance to reinvent itself, would that be a financial positive for the rest of the world as it pertains to access to Russia natural resources?
Money talks in this world; if Putin is ousted, I believe oligarchs will exert control over things again. The world will carry on trading and money will still accumulate with only a few.
 
Money talks in this world; if Putin is ousted, I believe oligarchs will exert control over things again. The world will carry on trading and money will still accumulate with only a few.

If Putin falls, so will his stooge oligarchs and Russia will go democratic.
 
Is there a chance that someone within the (wider) inner circle just offs Putin, like Brutus did with Cesar?
(Unfortunately there seems to be no historical tendency for tyrants to be removed by someone from within their own power sphere.)
Would be good and poetic if it were a gay couple like the Greek tyrant killers Harmodius and Aristogeiton that did the deed :lol: Not likely though
 
I am surprised that the Russians have not gone in with Shock and Awe. They seem fairly restricted. They could have flattened a lot like the Americans did in Iraq. But so far they haven't done so.
I wonder if they will increase the intensity if the Ukrainians fight back?

Do the Russians even have resources to apply the shock & awe strategy a country the size Ukraine? It would probably bankrupt Russia, those weapons cost an absolute mind boggling fortune, how would you even finance their replacements?

I think it’s ridiculous to compare Iraq to the Ukraine. I’m not condoning the Iraq invasion for one second, that’s left a nasty stain on the US and UK. Iraq or even Bin Laden are completely different realities to the Ukraine. Ukraine is a first world democratic sovereign country that’s been under attack for 8 years simply because the Ukraine wants to be able to choose their own future.
 
Did they really think they can capture Kiev?
Look, I know nothing about tactis and such.
I was only wondering about them attacking from everywhere, in the beginning. (Does not make too much sense for me because you will get held up at various places ... like the Americans in Falludscha.)
Now, we see bombings in Kiev - and I was just wondering. They might just try to get to Zelenski`?
 
What else would it do ? Putin would be gone and the masses, most of which are interested in greater freedoms would eventually form a new government and hold democratic elections.
Come on Raoul, how many have times have we seen this already? Iraq? Libya? Afghanistan? Egypt? Not all people in the world think the same way you think. And it seems to me that you seriously underestimate the support for Putin inside Russia.
 
What else would it do ? Putin would be gone and the masses, most of which are interested in greater freedoms would eventually form a new government and hold democratic elections.

I hope you're right but I don't know if it's really that simple. Various Russian governments have ruled autocratically for decades, centuries even. Or at at the very least since Stalin and arguably since Lenin. Before that, Tsar Nicholas II was absolutely an autocrat as were his forebears. There have been many changes of the guard, even two complete changes of doctrine twice in the last 105 years (imperialism to communism to capitalism) - but the police state has always survived, political dissent has never been allowed and fear and mistrust of the west appears to be the norm in ruling circles.

There remains the possibility that younger generations, connected to the west with social media, more liberal and less nationalistic, will spark a change when Putin has gone. It really depends on how much of a grip the establishment still has by that time.
 
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Come on Raoul, how many have times have we seen this already? Iraq? Libya? Afghanistan? Not all people in the world think the same way you think. And it seems to me that you seriously underestimate the support for Putin inside Russia.

That's not a valid argument I'm afraid. You have to look at conditions in each country on an individual basis. Russia has a pretty solid pro-democracy, anti-corruption movement as promulgated by the likes of Navalny. Most Russians are below the age of 40 and don't remember the swingin' Soviet days. They want freedom and democracy so they can build better lives for themselves and their families, just like a vast majority of humans around the planet.
 
Look, I know nothing about tactis and such.
I was only wondering about them attacking from everywhere, in the beginning. (Does not make too much sense for me because you will get held up at various places ... like the Americans in Falludscha.)
Now, we see bombings in Kiev - and I was just wondering. They might just try to get to Zelenski`?
They took out Ukraine’s major sea ports and began pincer moves on multiple fronts to try and isolate major Ukrainian cities.
ukraine-maps-promo-1644805701361-superJumbo-v11.png


It’s honestly reminiscent of…
WWIIEurope04.jpg
 
So let me get this straight. Russia doesn't want a large border next to NATO so they invade the country separating them to actually then bring themselves directly to the border with NATO.
 
Is there a chance that someone within the (wider) inner circle just offs Putin, like Brutus did with Cesar?
(Unfortunately there seems to be no historical tendency for tyrants to be removed by someone from within their own power sphere.)

no man, they all own Russia. Generations sorted by proxy. It’s been very well fixed. The people are genuinely the last hope for Russia (or America)
 
So let me get this straight. Russia doesn't want a large border next to NATO so they invade the country separating them to actually then bring themselves directly to the border with NATO.

No the idea is to have UKR as a buffer client state, not to add more territory.
 
So let me get this straight. Russia doesn't want a large border next to NATO so they invade the country separating them to actually then bring themselves directly to the border with NATO.

Correct.

Although Putin would like to not only take Ukraine, but also foment trouble in eastern Europe with the intention of pushing NATO back to its pre-1997 border before the former eastern block Soviet states joined NATO.
 
So let me get this straight. Russia doesn't want a large border next to NATO so they invade the country separating them to actually then bring themselves directly to the border with NATO.
Putin has said in interviews before that he believes the greatest tragedy to befall Russia was the fall of the soviet union. Not because hes a communist, but due to Russia losing superpower status and control over Europe. Russia can bully each small state individually and threaten invasion to control governments. But what happens when a small state joins regional powers and a superpower in mutual defence? How well do threats work? Not well.
 
That's not a valid argument I'm afraid. You have to look at conditions in each country on an individual basis. Russia has a pretty solid pro-democracy, anti-corruption movement as promulgated by the likes of Navalny. Most Russians are below the age of 40 and don't remember the swingin' Soviet days. They want freedom and democracy so they can build better lives for themselves and their families, just like a vast majority of humans around the planet.
The exact same thing was said about the other countries though.

So let me get this straight. Russia doesn't want a large border next to NATO so they invade the country separating them to actually then bring themselves directly to the border with NATO.
They won't annex Ukraine, well at least not all of it.