Whole Western idea of ex-Yugoslav countries to the southeast of Slovenia and Croatia has always been to appease Serbia in hopes they will eventually cut ties with Russia and opt for Western sphere of influence. Peaceful Serbia - peaceful Balkan. Doesn't work, of course.
Half of Bosnia is basically Transnitria style, or something like Donetsk and Lugansk satelite republics pre Russian invasion. US and European diplomacy is actively working to install Serbian parastate in Kosovo too, effectively making it a disfunctional state just like Bosnia is, 30 years after the war. Russia is our enemy openly, without much hiding, but others aren't helping as much as they claim either. On the contrary.
As for the rest of what you said, I don't disagree. It all makes sense. But I am not sure people will adequately react, people who should.