Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It's difficult not to laugh at the concept of Trump being unhappy with Ukraine's disappointment about how the peace treaty talks are being conducted and how they've been blocked from them.
 


Trump genuinely doesn't care about any of this, let alone Ukraine. He's set up these "talks" to get all of Russia's demands, probably thrown out like 1 or 2 suggestions, and will now present the rest as American ideas. That's why no one else is there, they get to completely control the narrative. Trump thinks this will get him a shiny gold medal and that's the most he's thought about Ukraine since the war began.
 
geo-politics 2025

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China is loving life right now. There's a fun theory that they've spent the last decade putting extra effort into convincing the world they are hellbent on Taiwan and politely helping Russia to destroy themselves, so that Outer Manchuria and whatever the hell they want in Siberia is theirs for the taking.

“All warfare is based on deception. When we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.” - Some Chinese guy.
 
That casualty rate is basically slightly better than the battle of Verdun and slightly worse than the 1943 Eastern Front, including Kursk and Kharkiv Manstein counteroffensive, disregarding Stalingrad surrender in January.

All in all, there is no way the operational tempo of this war and from what we've seen justifies this level of casualties.
 
China is loving life right now. There's a fun theory that they've spent the last decade putting extra effort into convincing the world they are hellbent on Taiwan and politely helping Russia to destroy themselves, so that Outer Manchuria and whatever the hell they want in Siberia is theirs for the taking.

“All warfare is based on deception. When we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.” - Some Chinese guy.

Aaaahhhhh Sun Tzu has been incited.

burn it...burn it with fire!!!
 
President Donald Trump suggested Tuesday that Ukraine was responsible for Russia's invasion of the country three years ago, arguing Kyiv could have made a deal to avoid the conflict.

"I think I have the power to end this war, and I think it's going very well. But today I heard, 'Oh, well, we weren't invited.' Well, you've been there for three years," Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort. "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/do...have-started-it-remarks-war-russia-rcna192710

Well.......shit.
 
he's said it for years now. He genuinely believes bigger states can use war for territorial gain and if you fight back that you are the problem.

He's an imperialist in geo-politics
He's a mercantilist in economics.

All the problems we thought were suppressed now sit in the white house.
Also worth pointing out that the BBC article about his has completely removed the bit about Trump saying that Ukraine started it. Our own independent broadcaster is manipulating the news. Even to the point of editing the fecking video footage with a cheap wipe transition.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd0n5e1pdz9o

I just hope that this is the wake up call for Europe to strengthen ties further and say feck you to Trump and Putin.

It's a bizarre world when China are telling the US that Ukraine and Europe need to be part of the negotiations with a Russia that unlawfully invaded a sovereign nation.
 
he's said it for years now. He genuinely believes bigger states can use war for territorial gain and if you fight back that you are the problem.

He's an imperialist in geo-politics
He's a mercantilist in economics.

All the problems we thought were suppressed now sit in the white house.

1830's British Foreign and Economic policy wants its things back.
 
'Shouldn't have worn those short skirts' kind of logic
Sad part is, many people have the exact thoughts as that. It's Ukraine who is the problem and Russians couldnt have done anything other than invade cause they were provoked, the poor souls.
 
Seems like Trump is promoting his book.

Throw Ukraine under a bus and rue the lack of a deal.

Read my book to understand where you went wrong.


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The US wants the precious Ukraine resources, especially the rare earths and other metals, which they desperately need for their chip industries.

Probably, Trump now realized most of the exploration sites these are located in the Donbass under Russian control.

I'm worried he will now just make a deal with Putin. Putin gets his oblasts and territories and Trump gets hands on the resources in the territories.

Scholz. Pathetic loser.
He will be gone in a week.
Unfortunately, Trump and the bunch of idiots are doing everything to ensure Merz doesn't have the majority to revert Scholz's politics.
The US wants a weak Europe, under Trump they are as much our enemies as China.

Russia once again saying they have no problem with EU membership. So their stance against nato is basically against the US since EU membership is a de facto security guarantee, nato or not.
The EU security guaranties are even stronger than article 5.
If Russia attacked a member state, the other states would join to fight of Russia. And if one of them is a NATO state (which most of the EU counties are) the NATO will be involved. No idea what's the logic behind Putin's thoughts here.
 
Seems like Trump is promoting his book.

Throw Ukraine under a bus and rue the lack of a deal.

Read my book to understand where you went wrong.


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So it is all Ukraine fault that Russia attacked them.
So now we know.
Thank you DT for explaining that to us all.
 
Europe must figure out how to deal with this and frankly they've been in a shock cause they've been totally unprepared for Trump, like nobody knew what's he about and how he will deal with things.. Now they're trying to do something quickly, dont know what was the purpose of that emergency summit on which only few countries were present. Not only that, a second summit is in plan, on which again not all EU countries will be invited.
So they're angry about not being at the negotiation table, but on the other only chosen few are meeting. How is that different from not being invited to Saudi Arabia?
 
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Europe must figure out how to deal with this and frankly they've been in a shock cause they've been totally unprepared for Trump, like nobody knew what's he about and how he will deal with things.. Now they're trying to do something quickly, dont know what was the purpose of that emergency summit on which only few countries were present. Not only that, a second summit is in plan, on which again not all EU countries will be invited.
They are perpetually in shocked deer in headlights mode.
 
They are perpetually in shocked deer in headlights mode.

How could you have been expected to prepare for what he has done in the last few days. Remember that Europe is a continent of dozens of different countries, same for the EU.
His behaviour has completely blindsided them all.
 
You can't actually prepare for Trump. Yes in hindsight his behaviour is always explainable, but he is fundamentally unpredictable. This could have gone a dozen different ways.

Pretty sure no one had "Russia and US to negotiate terms of trade peace in Saudia Arabia without Ukraine or Europe" on their bingo card. All the same, as surprising as it is, it's not actually surprising when you think about it,. Doesn't mean it's something readily anticipated.
 
They had about a ton of red flags, it's not that Trump fell of the sky. And now they're full of big words, but I dont see anything meaningful happening other than just talking.

Plenty of red flags, but i don't think many thought it was realistic that Trump and the US would rally behind Russia, publicly claim that Ukraine started the war and attempt to force Ukraine into accepting a peace deal that will see the United Stats and Russia share profits while at the same time actively trying to alienate long term allies.

I think plenty expected him to be hard in terms of getting allies to increase their military budgets, but this is fairly bonkers.
 
Also worth pointing out that the BBC article about his has completely removed the bit about Trump saying that Ukraine started it. Our own independent broadcaster is manipulating the news. Even to the point of editing the fecking video footage with a cheap wipe transition.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd0n5e1pdz9o

I just hope that this is the wake up call for Europe to strengthen ties further and say feck you to Trump and Putin.

It's a bizarre world when China are telling the US that Ukraine and Europe need to be part of the negotiations with a Russia that unlawfully invaded a sovereign nation.

Good post.
 
How could you have been expected to prepare for what he has done in the last few days. Remember that Europe is a continent of dozens of different countries, same for the EU.
His behaviour has completely blindsided them all.
By listening to what he said for the past year.
 
Plenty of red flags, but i don't think many thought it was realistic that Trump and the US would rally behind Russia, publicly claim that Ukraine started the war and attempt to force Ukraine into accepting a peace deal that will see the United Stats and Russia share profits while at the same time actively trying to alienate long term allies.

I think plenty expected him to be hard in terms of getting allies to increase their military budgets, but this is fairly bonkers.
That's all true, but my point is that now it has happen EU has to decide on these things as a whole and not have summits for some countries and not the others, cause doing that sends a completely wrong message.
 
That's all true, but my point is that now it has happen EU has to decide on these things as a whole and not have summits for some countries and not the others, cause doing that sends a completely wrong message.
Yeah, so that Orban and the like can obstruct everything.
 
Plenty of red flags, but i don't think many thought it was realistic that Trump and the US would rally behind Russia, publicly claim that Ukraine started the war and attempt to force Ukraine into accepting a peace deal that will see the United Stats and Russia share profits while at the same time actively trying to alienate long term allies.

I think plenty expected him to be hard in terms of getting allies to increase their military budgets, but this is fairly bonkers.

I think this is exactly the scenario that many people were predicting in this thread. It is not really surprising it all, although still shocking to see it happen.

I suppose there was never a chance for the European countries to properly unite though until the reality hit them in the face, even now they struggle to comprehend the situation.
 
Europe must figure out how to deal with this and frankly they've been in a shock cause they've been totally unprepared for Trump, like nobody knew what's he about and how he will deal with things.. Now they're trying to do something quickly, dont know what was the purpose of that emergency summit on which only few countries were present. Not only that, a second summit is in plan, on which again not all EU countries will be invited.

They got to have some nice photos acting like serious heads of states, that's all it was optics.

I don't buy that Trump has really changed the game all that much. He's publicly stabbing Ukraine in the back whilst they wanted to do it slowly and quietly. They had no plans that wouldn't have seen Ukraine lose territory.

The only difference might be in the security guarantee but were the US ever going to put boots on the ground? Doubt it

Trump's not wrong that the EU needs to stop hiding behind the US.
 
They got to have some nice photos acting like serious heads of states, that's all it was optics.

I don't buy that Trump has really changed the game all that much. He's publicly stabbing Ukraine in the back whilst they wanted to do it slowly and quietly. They had no plans that wouldn't have seen Ukraine lose territory.

The only difference might be in the security guarantee but were the US ever going to put boots on the ground? Doubt it

Trump's not wrong that the EU needs to stop hiding behind the US.
True, problem is US is now cosing up with Russia and is acting like Europe is the enemy.
 
They got to have some nice photos acting like serious heads of states, that's all it was optics.

I don't buy that Trump has really changed the game all that much. He's publicly stabbing Ukraine in the back whilst they wanted to do it slowly and quietly. They had no plans that wouldn't have seen Ukraine lose territory.

The only difference might be in the security guarantee but were the US ever going to put boots on the ground? Doubt it

Trump's not wrong that the EU needs to stop hiding behind the US.

Ukraine losing territory has probably been on the table for quite some time, but actively working against Ukraines and Europes interests and blaming Ukraine for the war is a new one.
 
So all in all Russia will keep the occupied territory and there wont be any peacekeeping troops in the rest of Ukraine.
 
Ukraine losing territory has probably been on the table for quite some time, but actively working against Ukraines and Europes interests and blaming Ukraine for the war is a new one.

It's difficult but it's best to ignore half of what Trump says as it's just noise, a muffled interpretation of decisions/advice made by others. The EU leaders will use comments like that for their own optics but again they should be judged by actions not cheap political statements.

I'm feeling particularly cynical this week unless the EU come forth with real support rather than summits then it's all for show. Half of them are probably glad they're not at the negotiation table as they get to 'stand up' to Trump and wipe their hands of any bad deal.

The subplot I find interesting (if a bit distasteful) is if there's an EU/US battle for the resources. Both have previously signed frameworks/memorandums for access but now a significant chunk of it is owned by Russia and it'll be up in the air.
 
How could you have been expected to prepare for what he has done in the last few days. Remember that Europe is a continent of dozens of different countries, same for the EU.
His behaviour has completely blindsided them all.
I understand that things move slowly in the EU and why that is. However nobody should have been blindsided by all this. This was to be expected. Maybe not in detail. But that shit was about to hit the fan was clear to everyone with open eyes. Europe should have acted sooner, instead of reacting slowly.
 
The US wants the precious Ukraine resources, especially the rare earths and other metals, which they desperately need for their chip industries.

Probably, Trump now realized most of the exploration sites these are located in the Donbass under Russian control.

I'm worried he will now just make a deal with Putin. Putin gets his oblasts and territories and Trump gets hands on the resources in the territories.
The trouble is Ukraine's 'rare earth' deposits are complete bullshit.

Great article by Bloomberg's Javier Blas: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ence-ukraine-has-rare-earth-elements-is-wrong

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