Yep, Russia invaded contrary to my expectations. I didn't think they'd invade, I was wrong. It was a stupid decision, there you go. As to lack of provocation, that will be debated for decades. As per geopolitics and arguments best avoided here?
It has been NATO versus Russia verus Russia versus Ukraine (control over it with respect to NATO) versus US policy with respect to Russia and China and larger geopolitical issues. You cannot explain the war, in any respect, except "mad-man invades to conquer and become Alexander the Great", without considering these things, as now, even the NYT begins to consider. Doesn't mean you have to agree that NATO shouldn't arm Ukraine, or that Russia was anything other than wrong to invade, but the facts are the facts. Interpret them as you like. It didn't occur in a vacuum. Syria, etc., now in the Arab league, which you probably consider irreleveant to the entire discussion, and so on. It's not an isolated war-zone in itself, unless that is your sole focus (if Ukrainian, or Russian, citizen/soldier, I understand that).
Re Provocation, a long-winded topic best avoided because it's been done to death here (NATO provocation, Russian provocation of NATO, too, btw, thus Syria, not Ukrainian as such). But it will be a matter of historiography and geopolitical debate for decades to come. To pretend otherwise is to be ideological yourself whatever "side" one sees themselves on.