Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Yep, Russia invaded contrary to my expectations. I didn't think they'd invade, I was wrong. It was a stupid decision, there you go. As to lack of provocation, that will be debated for decades. As per geopolitics and arguments best avoided here?


It has been NATO versus Russia verus Russia versus Ukraine (control over it with respect to NATO) versus US policy with respect to Russia and China and larger geopolitical issues. You cannot explain the war, in any respect, except "mad-man invades to conquer and become Alexander the Great", without considering these things, as now, even the NYT begins to consider. Doesn't mean you have to agree that NATO shouldn't arm Ukraine, or that Russia was anything other than wrong to invade, but the facts are the facts. Interpret them as you like. It didn't occur in a vacuum. Syria, etc., now in the Arab league, which you probably consider irreleveant to the entire discussion, and so on. It's not an isolated war-zone in itself, unless that is your sole focus (if Ukrainian, or Russian, citizen/soldier, I understand that).

Re Provocation, a long-winded topic best avoided because it's been done to death here (NATO provocation, Russian provocation of NATO, too, btw, thus Syria, not Ukrainian as such). But it will be a matter of historiography and geopolitical debate for decades to come. To pretend otherwise is to be ideological yourself whatever "side" one sees themselves on.
This is from the last time you did the same thing. Tiring, indeed.
 
It's pointless. "You said [and admitted openly, subsequently, that I was wrong, but we'll leave this out bc it doesn't suit scapegoating] that Russia wouldn't invade". Rabble, rabble.

If all you can do is got-cha (which is "here's that thing you said you were wrong about, many times") then what do you want to change? Because admitting you were wrong many times is actually called "change".
 


While the world dances to the tunes of Trump & Putin, Zelenskyy getting on with negotiations of his own...

 
It was called a proxy war by Hillary Clinton from the get-go and for a liar she was remarkably accurate. Many intelligent posters I never agree with on these issues knew this was a proxy war, too, because they said, in the realpolitik world, that the US would be foolish not to try and make this as costly for Russia as possible. I don't think most (we'd need a poll of people without bias, and not online) would consider this anything but a proxy war for the US, UK, some EU nations and then something else for Ukraine (obviously) and also certain other EU nations which are in that region. Even then, if we stay in that region, or along/near the Russian border(s), it would be viewed as a proxy war. That is, the "Ukraine is fighting them there so we don't have to fight them here" (completely orthodox opinion from Washington, Brussels, London, and Kyiv) = proxy war.

It's no slight to Ukraine to call it what it is, imo, and so I never understood why people were irritated with that one. The NATO thing is understandable and we required a whole new thread for it. It's a far more complex claim whether you think it complete nonsense or not.
Proxy war is a term from political sciences, not some axiomatically derived law of the universe. It changes the meaning with time and has multiple, slightly different definitions depending on who and where you ask. Citing Hillary Clinton as some sort of universal authority on this is just silly and obviously in any other context you would immidiately ridicule that. If you want to believe or argue that it has some things common with proxy wars as commonly understood then argue that, instead of being incredibly weirdly married to a term in a way that doesn't even adhere to how people use language. By the broadest definition literally every armed conflict today fits the definition, it doesn't mean that everything is Korean or Vietnam War (or whatever example you have in mind that you desperately want to make equivalent to invasion of Ukraine).
 
Ukrainian drones reportedly knock out 10 percent of Russian refining capacity
Ukraine’s recent campaign of drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure has succeeded in knocking out around one-tenth of Russia’s refining capacity, according to analysis by news agency Reuters.

Ukraine’s bombing offensive is proving effective. Calculations by Reuters analysts based on oil industry trading figures covering the period from January to early February 2025 indicate that Ukrainian drone attacks have disabled approximately 10 percent of Russia’s refining capacity. Coupled with the impact of recently imposed United States sanctions against the Kremlin’s shadow fleet of oil tankers, this is expected to leave Moscow with no choice but to slow oil production in the coming months.
Ukrainian officials have stated that they intend to manufacture 30,000 long-range drones and 3000 missiles during the current year. Some of Kyiv’s Western partners also appear to recognize the strategic importance of Ukraine’s growing long-range arsenal, and are providing financing for production along with technical support. However, it will still be some time before Ukraine has sufficient long-range firepower to seriously threaten Russia’s ability to wage war.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...-out-10-percent-of-russian-refining-capacity/
 
I didn't go from any sources really I just didn't think he'd invade. Got it wrong. Happy to admit it.

Thing like "this is a proxy war" or anything related to NATO (without ever, once, trying to use NATO as a justification for the invasion which I have never once justified).

In hindsight, I think it's obvious enough. Highly emotive topic and no one really wanted a geopolitical debate (call it what you want, perhaps too geopolitical and speculative) at that time.
Understood, I don't remember that to be honest. I remember people being put down for saying Russia/Putin had to invade etc. which seems completely ridiculous, even more so now. I thought it was the popular viewpoint that the US would relish one of its main rivals getting bogged down in long drawn out war.
 
I thought it was the popular viewpoint that the US would relish one of its main rivals getting bogged down in long drawn out war.
Maybe it was conflated with the NATO stuff. It was mental at that time so it's hard to say without re-reading the entire thread but there were definitely people who wouldn't accept it as a proxy war. I don't know but that is slightly out-there to me because the US made no secret of it. Not important now anyway.

So, they're meeting in Saudi Arabia today/tonight and this seems a prelude for Trump/Putin meeting at some later date. Zelensky and some EU nations are holding what almost seems like "counter-meetings" to keep their message alive (or maybe to just say that they cannot be left absent from the table). I do know that Putin has always said that he'd only discuss this when the US was ready (basically bypassing the entire EU/NATO) because, in reality I suppose, the US is the shot-caller.

EU has to be present somehow seeing as the rebuild will involve the EU directly and also because of the sheer volume of capital expenditure apropos military aid. Tensions either way between NATO. Trump eager to be seen as the one who did it single-handedly imo.
 
Maybe it was conflated with the NATO stuff. It was mental at that time so it's hard to say without re-reading the entire thread but there were definitely people who wouldn't accept it as a proxy war. I don't know but that is slightly out-there to me because the US made no secret of it. Not important now anyway.

So, they're meeting in Saudi Arabia today/tonight and this seems a prelude for Trump/Putin meeting at some later date. Zelensky and some EU nations are holding what almost seems like "counter-meetings" to keep their message alive (or maybe to just say that they cannot be left absent from the table). I do know that Putin has always said that he'd only discuss this when the US was ready (basically bypassing the entire EU/NATO) because, in reality I suppose, the US is the shot-caller.

EU has to be present somehow seeing as the rebuild will involve the EU directly and also because of the sheer volume of capital expenditure apropos military aid. Tensions either way between NATO. Trump eager to be seen as the one who did it single-handedly imo.

Zelenskyy is getting on with business as usual. Today in the UAE, putting pen to paper on a new trade agreement. He's not showing a lot of interest in what Trump is up to, he and Putin can agree whatever they want, he can pull US aid, remove sanctions, turn all their media control on Zelenskyy, etc, but they cannot force Ukraine into any kind of 'deal' they don't want.

Meanwhile in Russia, they are considering setting up a 'Bartering Exchange' :rolleyes:

 
I'm tired of having to reply to the same lies about NATO.

I was there during some parts of Euromaidan. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy. The pro-EU protestors started off being mainly really young people and students. The average joe were pissed off but didn't care. Then Yanukovych decided to beat the shit out of these students and protestors which in turn led to mass country wide protests and the downfall of his government.

Nobody on the ground gave a feck about NATO. How the feck can this be construed as a coup beggars belief.

The leadership of Euromaidan ended up being a mish mash of activists, lawyers, poets, journalists, student union leaders, politicians, professional sportsmen, dancers and musicians. Uh huh, all of them got recruited by Western Intelligence apparatus I guess?
 
He's not showing a lot of interest in what Trump is up to, he and Putin can agree whatever they want, he can pull US aid, remove sanctions, turn all their media control on Zelenskyy, etc, but they cannot force Ukraine into any kind of 'deal' they don't want.
It will be very interesting if they negotiate a peace-deal and Ukraine tells the US to go feck itself. I hate war but I'd nearly (not quite) want to see that happen.
 
Can recommend people to read a bit about the Tuzla incident from 2003. Trouble was already brewing back then.

On 29 September 2003, without any notification or negotiations, Russian workers started building a dam to connect the Russian shore near Taman to the Ukrainian island. Each day they added 150 meters. Any requests for an explanation from Russia were met with prevarication and the claim that it was the responsibility of local officials.

President Vladimir Putin ignored calls from his Ukrainian counterpart President Leonid Kuchma on the subject. But as soon as Kuchma left the country for a visit to Latin America, the construction intensified.
The Kremlin questioned whether the island belonged to Ukraine, despite the mutual recognition of borders in 1991 and 1997, while TV stations stoked anti-Ukrainian hysteria. The madness reached its peak when a TV poll found 82% of Russians said Tuzla was more important than good neighborly relations.

Russian militant groups from Krasnodar had previously traveled to the island to persuade the tiny local population to “return to the bosom of Mother Russia”.
https://cepa.org/article/lessons-from-russias-first-assault-on-ukraine-20-years-since-tuzla/

Russian and Ukrainian prime ministers met today in Moscow in an attempt to defuse the situation surrounding Russia's construction of a dam in the Kerch Strait along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The strait connects the Azov Sea to the Black Sea and serves as a passageway to the Mediterranean for both Russia and Ukraine. The dispute over the dam -- which Kyiv views as an attempt to annex its land -- is quickly becoming the worst bilateral crisis between the two capitals since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
https://www.rferl.org/a/1104782.html
 
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CIA written propaganda, Maria Matios was obviously a Western spy.

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Can't trust the Russian equivalent of Financial Times either! one of its chief reporters ended up being a key proponent of Euromaidan!

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Can't trust these cook-books either! This Ukrainian cooking book was actually an undercover spy-op by the CIA! Its author was an influential figure in Euromaidan!
 
Which is a massive change, but it would be possible if the politicial will is there. Which it isn't, because still nobody feels the urgency to move in that direction.
It's gonna be a tough sell to a generation struggling to have a place to live that more money should be invested in the military.

Either this investment comes with social policies or they might as well give the keys to the far right.
 
Sorry I'm being a bit facetious, because some are genuinely convinced that the grassroots level of Euromaidan contributors and protestors were CIA spies and agitators.
I do appreciate your input and knowledge, as do many others. Just remember that the loudest voices here do not represent the majority of the readers.
 
It will be very interesting if they negotiate a peace-deal and Ukraine tells the US to go feck itself. I hate war but I'd nearly (not quite) want to see that happen.
I think we can all agree on the hating war part. I don't know whether I come across as 'callous' sometimes on here, but I firmly believe capitulating to any kind of deal on Putin's terms will only cause more innocent suffering in the long term. The opportunity exists right now to end the threat of Putin's Russia, we have to take it.

Europe will step up, there is no choice now, the security situation has fundamentally changed these last few weeks.
 
Sorry I'm being a bit facetious, because some are genuinely convinced that the grassroots level of Euromaidan contributors and protestors were CIA spies and agitators.
Yes, that is quite obvious. When recruiting for foreign agents, cooks, writers and financial journalists are top targets. Nothing else would make sense.
 
I think we can all agree on the hating war part. I don't know whether I come across as 'callous' sometimes on here, but I firmly believe capitulating to any kind of deal on Putin's terms will only cause more innocent suffering in the long term. The opportunity exists right now to end the threat of Putin's Russia, we have to take it.

Europe will step up, there is no choice now, the security situation has fundamentally changed these last few weeks.
I don't think anyone here seems to like war. At worst we just have different interpretations regarding how it happened but I don't see anyone disagreeing that we all want it to end. We might disagree as to how that happens, too, but the key point, imo, is that we all agree it should happen. Everyone entitled to their opinion and so on plus some on here are Ukrainian/Russian and different nationalities. It hasn't hit everyone the same .

I just want it done with but with a clear way to rebuilding the ruins.
 
I think we can all agree on the hating war part. I don't know whether I come across as 'callous' sometimes on here, but I firmly believe capitulating to any kind of deal on Putin's terms will only cause more innocent suffering in the long term. The opportunity exists right now to end the threat of Putin's Russia, we have to take it.

Europe will step up, there is no choice now, the security situation has fundamentally changed these last few weeks.
The issue is if Americans remove sanctions on their part it would give Russia an economic reprieve and would make the war longer. If the sanctions remain and EU backs Ukraine, I'm optimistic that Ukraine could end the war on their terms.
 
Maybe it was conflated with the NATO stuff. It was mental at that time so it's hard to say without re-reading the entire thread but there were definitely people who wouldn't accept it as a proxy war. I don't know but that is slightly out-there to me because the US made no secret of it. Not important now anyway.

So, they're meeting in Saudi Arabia today/tonight and this seems a prelude for Trump/Putin meeting at some later date. Zelensky and some EU nations are holding what almost seems like "counter-meetings" to keep their message alive (or maybe to just say that they cannot be left absent from the table). I do know that Putin has always said that he'd only discuss this when the US was ready (basically bypassing the entire EU/NATO) because, in reality I suppose, the US is the shot-caller.

EU has to be present somehow seeing as the rebuild will involve the EU directly and also because of the sheer volume of capital expenditure apropos military aid. Tensions either way between NATO. Trump eager to be seen as the one who did it single-handedly imo.
Despite how much I dislike him I think people underestimate Trump - I think he's very calculating (or likely people in his close network are). If I think high level about what would benefit the US most, it is the status quo but with a shift in financial aid, Europe taking up the bulk and the US chipping in. He can tell his voters he is saving billions etc. but the US keeps tabs on a military adversary, keeps them bleeding financially but allows him to turn his attention to China which is what really worries the US.
 
The issue is if Americans remove sanctions on their part it would give Russia an economic reprieve and would make the war longer. If the sanctions remain and EU backs Ukraine, I'm optimistic that Ukraine could end the war on their terms.
Yeah I suspect Putin's priority is financial aid more than anything. Feck knows what Trump is capable of on that front... I'm not optimistic.
 
Despite how much I dislike him I think people underestimate Trump - I think he's very calculating (or likely people in his close network are). If I think high level about what would benefit the US most, it is the status quo but with a shift in financial aid, Europe taking up the bulk and the US chipping in. He can tell his voters he is saving billions etc. but the US keeps tabs on a military adversary, keeps them bleeding financially but allows him to turn his attention to China which is what really worries the US.
It sort of goes with his last term: that those not paying the 2% would be (whatever) and also a very old tension (decades) between the US and the EU. Goes back to Nixon (maybe before) where the US is happy to have its troops in the EU and so on (cost of empire) but then bemoans the cost of empire through trade-differentials. It seems it has decided to remove itself, in large part, from the EU, and then task the EU with its own regional security whilst it goes after China in the competition for the next century.
 
Despite how much I dislike him I think people underestimate Trump - I think he's very calculating (or likely people in his close network are). If I think high level about what would benefit the US most, it is the status quo but with a shift in financial aid, Europe taking up the bulk and the US chipping in. He can tell his voters he is saving billions etc. but the US keeps tabs on a military adversary, keeps them bleeding financially but allows him to turn his attention to China which is what really worries the US.
Trump has historically good ties with Russia and bad with Zelensky. I'm uncomfortable about making any sort of prediction. Anything could happen.
 
I'm tired of having to reply to the same lies about NATO.

I was there during some parts of Euromaidan. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy. The pro-EU protestors started off being mainly really young people and students. The average joe were pissed off but didn't care. Then Yanukovych decided to beat the shit out of these students and protestors which in turn led to mass country wide protests and the downfall of his government.

Nobody on the ground gave a feck about NATO. How the feck can this be construed as a coup beggars belief.

The leadership of Euromaidan ended up being a mish mash of activists, lawyers, poets, journalists, student union leaders, politicians, professional sportsmen, dancers and musicians. Uh huh, all of them got recruited by Western Intelligence apparatus I guess?

I had a few friends taking part. Mostly very leftist punk rock types, students. They're still very surprised that they're actually neo-nazis controlled by the CIA.
 
Yes, that is quite obvious. When recruiting for foreign agents, cooks, writers and financial journalists are top targets. Nothing else would make sense.

In fairness, they do recruit a lot of different people and journalists with access to a lot of countries during the 80’s and 90’s were definetely on the payroll of the CIA.
 
Despite how much I dislike him I think people underestimate Trump - I think he's very calculating (or likely people in his close network are). If I think high level about what would benefit the US most, it is the status quo but with a shift in financial aid, Europe taking up the bulk and the US chipping in. He can tell his voters he is saving billions etc. but the US keeps tabs on a military adversary, keeps them bleeding financially but allows him to turn his attention to China which is what really worries the US.
Last sentence: I'm highly sceptical that Trump gives 2 shits about China as of now. Maybe in his 1st term he did. But now I don't feel that vibe at all, I think he's doubling down on his desire to be like other authoritarian countries. Happy to be proven wrong.
 
Trump has historically good ties with Russia and bad with Zelensky. I'm uncomfortable about making any sort of prediction. Anything could happen.
Oh yeah, no one has a clue right now. Just feel like Trump actually has proven in foreign policy specifically he can engineer things others can't, likely because he is shady as feck - sending his billionaire real estate tycoon mate to meet these dudes as a warm up is always an interesting move I think, he's been sent off to Putin already.
 


Let’s take a blind stab at what this deal would look like:
- Russia keeps occupied lands
- Ukraine denuclearised (are agrees some remit to never do so)
- No reparations for Russia to assist with the rebuilding process
- All frozen assets returned
- All trading blocks rescinded

That sound about right?
 
Sorry I'm being a bit facetious, because some are genuinely convinced that the grassroots level of Euromaidan contributors and protestors were CIA spies and agitators.
Don't forget that Yanukovych, being the most reason for Maidan protests and how they exploded later, must have been a CIA plant too.
 
Despite how much I dislike him I think people underestimate Trump - I think he's very calculating (or likely people in his close network are). If I think high level about what would benefit the US most, it is the status quo but with a shift in financial aid, Europe taking up the bulk and the US chipping in. He can tell his voters he is saving billions etc. but the US keeps tabs on a military adversary, keeps them bleeding financially but allows him to turn his attention to China which is what really worries the US.

I'm fairly certain he's all about what benefits him the most. I can only imagine the sums of money that will be going in and out of Russia and Ukraine when sanctions are gradually lifted, it's going to be an absolute paradise for some.

Trump has already bemoaned the oil price, so wouldn't be much of a surprise if there's a heavy push to remove sanctions on Russian oil, they do have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve to fill.

I really don't think he's being underestimated. I think him, and quite a few others, have seen how much you can actually get away with and how little consequence it has when something is discovered and decided that they can just steamroll pretty much whatever they want. What you see is what you get. Sure, maybe it'll have some side effects like countries spending more on their military etc, Europe building up a large defense sector, but i really don't think he actually cares what the outcome is.
 


I can only imagine how pleased the leaders in Europe must be considering the absolute shitshow over the years and the consequences due to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Libya, the refugee crisis that has since followed and the "intervention" in Syria.
 


Let’s take a blind stab at what this deal would look like:
- Russia keeps occupied lands
- Ukraine denuclearised (are agrees some remit to never do so)
- No reparations for Russia to assist with the rebuilding process
- All frozen assets returned
- All trading blocks rescinded

That sound about right?

- State visit for Putin
- European leaders have to send a macaroni apology card to the Kremlin

And Ukraine gets to defend another invasion in a few years.
 
I think it’s a really interesting dynamic of freedom of speech vs combating disinformation - and this thread is a good example.

On the one hand, far too many communities on the internet are just echo chambers that perpetuate increasingly extreme opinions. On the other hand, trying to have good faith conversation with clear bad faith actors (possibly bots) who only exist to spam (in this case) Putins talking points…. By even giving them the time of day, you grant it legitimacy.

In this thread I have ignored more posters than the rest of the caf combined in my time here. On the one hand I don’t want to isolate myself from genuine dissenting views, on the other hand the best way to combat bots and shills is to ignore/ban and don’t give them the opportunity to propagate their lies
 


Let’s take a blind stab at what this deal would look like:
- Russia keeps occupied lands
- Ukraine denuclearised (are agrees some remit to never do so)
- No reparations for Russia to assist with the rebuilding process
- All frozen assets returned
- All trading blocks rescinded

That sound about right?


Who is that and what are their sources?