Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Simbo said:
I can sort of forgive people for thinking this, with the state of our news and media, but what you just wrote is the opposite of reality.

Yes Ukraine doesn’t have ‘enough’ troops because what is enough? 2mil? 5mil would be better.

Ukraines is still a majorly volunteer army without having to offer people a lifetime wage as sign-on bonus and conscription age cap remains at 25, only having adjusted it once since the start of this war, down from 27.

We’ll know when they get desperate for manpower… there are several stages they can go through yet if it ever comes to that.

What does desperate look like? Well just look at Russia, basically every single thing they do. Removed all conscription restrictions, emptied the prisons, mercs from Africa, brought N. Korea into the war ffs… They are now rounding up the injured and sending them back out to the front…. Either to save money, absorb a drone or stop them spreading the truth of this war at home? I dunno. They have severe workforce shortages among many other problems that Ukraine doesn’t have to their extent. Their assaults have already begun ti slow this last month or so, they are exhausting themselves.

The ‘deal’ is a giant distraction, Ukraine just needs to carry on.

If the total fecking idiots of this world want to believe Russia gaining Another 0.01% of Ukrainian land for the cost of 10k troops and whatever gear they road in on means they are winning this war and Ukraine is on the back foot then…. :lol: They can carry on too I guess.
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It really isn't.

Hell, my own cousin got shot trying to flee recruiters.
 
Guys stop with the hysteria about Trump and Hegseth suddenly changing everything. They're just saying the quiet part out loud.

Bidens' government for the past year has basically been on the same footing, with Jake Sullivan alluding multiple times that negotiations will need to happen sooner rather than later. The same shitty things Trump's admin is doing was basically where the Biden administration was heading towards anyway, just decorated with some insignificant aid packages here and there and dressed up nicely by not actually saying the quiet part out loud.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Half of my family are Ukrainian, my wife's entire family are Ukrainian. A lot of my friend circles are Ukrainian but a lot of them have left.

Regarding the latter:

This kind of stuff is callous as hell mate. Almost everyone is affected by conscription - everyone's got a family member or close friend serving in AFU right now. Everyone has suffered, everyone has a direct blood relation been severely wounded, paralyzed, lost a limb or died.

Everyone lives in fear every day of their lives because they're double compounded by the fact that a missile could drop on their heads at any given time or they'll receive a call or an officer at their door telling them that their husband/son/uncle/father is dead.

Most people at this point just want it to end, no matter for how long, despite sovereignty.
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An end which will end up more like the Korean DMZ than a peaceful border between two countries, probably? I would be interested in your thoughts. Presumably it would need long term funding from European countries to maintain security there. And how does Europe help minimise Russia's interference/irregular warfare?
 
africanspur said:
I don’t see how people could consider it anything other than a loss by Finland to be honest. Note that I specifically didn’t say this is a victory for Russia either, especially when compared to the initial maximalist aims or the massive geopolitical impact it’s had.

For me, were this to end tomorrow along current lines, it would be a loss for both. Ukraine would have lost territory, men, an armistice with an unreliable neighbour and likely no guarantee of moving into NATO to protect themselves in future. Russia would have lost men, money, weaponry, international reputation , its Middle Eastern bases and surrounded itself with more NATO neighbours.

Nobody would be a winner there.
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The aftermath of the Winter War would eventually push Finland in the arms of the IIIrd Reich, but it also was a loss for the Soviet Union with dramatic consequences in the future. Finland dragged the Russians in the mud, inflicting massive casualties, and completely exposed the Red Army's weaknesses, something that wouldn't get lost on Nazi Germany.

Russia can not expect anything else than a pyrrhic victory in Ukraine, Assad's regime probably wouldn't have fallen if Russia wasn't embroiled in Ukraine (it's currently redeploying in Lybia though). Then again a defeat is for Putin's regime absolutely unacceptable given how much was put in this war. That's why Russia's all in and will never relent, even for the semblance of a victory.

On the other hand, there's absolutely no doubt that NATO and the US reputation is going to take a hit and the liberal democracies will come out of it quite fragilized, having half-heartedly supported Ukraine to bleed out an arch-enemy and then hanging it out to dry.
 
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AfonsoAlves said:
Half of my family are Ukrainian, my wife's entire family are Ukrainian. A lot of my friend circles are Ukrainian but a lot of them have left.

Regarding the latter:

This kind of stuff is callous as hell mate. Almost everyone is affected by conscription - everyone's got a family member or close friend serving in AFU right now. Everyone has suffered, everyone has a direct blood relation been severely wounded, paralyzed, lost a limb or died.

Everyone lives in fear every day of their lives because they're double compounded by the fact that a missile could drop on their heads at any given time or they'll receive a call or an officer at their door telling them that their husband/son/uncle/father is dead.

Most people at this point just want it to end, no matter for how long, despite sovereignty.
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Which should be very obvious to everyone here but there's still those who forget there's real people impacted by all these decisions. Too many arm chair generals absorbed into the narrative.

I'm surprised there's not a lot more hate directed at EU politicians to be honest. They're full of hot air, press conference after press conference trying to appear tough for their local voters but none of them will do what's actually needed. Zelensky is basically playing off that trying to shame them into action and putting a cost on their PR. I think those same EU politicians are just desperate for it to end the same as everyone else however they're going to use every opportunity left to score political points.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Guys stop with the hysteria about Trump and Hegseth suddenly changing everything. They're just saying the quiet part out loud.

Bidens' government for the past year has basically been on the same footing, with Jake Sullivan alluding multiple times that negotiations will need to happen sooner rather than later. The same shitty things Trump's admin is doing was basically where the Biden administration was heading towards anyway, just decorated with some insignificant aid packages here and there and dressed up nicely by not actually saying the quiet part out loud.
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The Biden administration stalled as much as it could to let Trump deal with the aftermath, so the Dems wouldn't be seen as the ones who sold out Ukraine.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Half of my family are Ukrainian, my wife's entire family are Ukrainian. A lot of my friend circles are Ukrainian but a lot of them have left.

Regarding the latter:

This kind of stuff is callous as hell mate. Almost everyone is affected by conscription - everyone's got a family member or close friend serving in AFU right now. Everyone has suffered, everyone has a direct blood relation been severely wounded, paralyzed, lost a limb or died.

Everyone lives in fear every day of their lives because they're double compounded by the fact that a missile could drop on their heads at any given time or they'll receive a call or an officer at their door telling them that their husband/son/uncle/father is dead.

Most people at this point just want it to end, no matter for how long, despite sovereignty.
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Really appreciate this. If it does bring an end to this unjust war, then good. But I honestly don't believe that Putin and Russia would stop there. Appeasement has never worked anywhere.
Thank you and my very best wishes to your Ukrainian family and friends. They all deserve a brighter future.
 
Smores said:
I'm surprised there's not a lot more hate directed at EU politicians to be honest. They're full of hot air, press conference after press conference trying to appear tough for their local voters but none of them will do what's actually needed. Zelensky is basically playing off that trying to shame them into action and putting a cost on their PR. I think those same EU politicians are just desperate for it to end the same as everyone else however they're going to use every opportunity left to score political points.
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The inconvenient truth. I was hearing Von Der Leyen speech today and your paragraph perfectly sums it. It has been three years of this and the Americans will call their bluff this time. Meaningless words from an ineffective, bureaucratic organization. The sign of times in an European Union led by the likes of Macron, Scholz, Von Der Leyen. Uncharismatic, out of touch, indecisive leaders.
 
Sly said:
The inconvenient truth. I was hearing Von Der Leyen speech today and your paragraph perfectly sums it. It has been three years of this and the Americans will call their bluff this time. Meaningless words from an ineffective, bureaucratic organization. The sign of times in an European Union led by the likes of Macron, Scholz, Von Der Leyen. Uncharismatic, out of touch, indecisive leaders.
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Also, she is inarguably the worst German defence minister since Fritz Todt, which takes some doing, quite frankly.
 
Red in STL said:
Sending EU forces in to Ukraine would likely be seen as NATO intervention by Russia
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It's a calculated risk. Russia right now doesn't have the machinery and man power to take on of all Europe. If they did, it would be a quick loss. Sure Putin would bluster and threatens Nuke but I don't think he would directly attack a NATO country while being bogged down in Ukraine. He needs to settle Ukraine first before attempting NATO.
But every action and non action has a risk.
If EU sends forces to Russia to relieve Ukraine they sent initiative and put Ukraine in a strong position to move. If they don't and this becomes a war of attrition, Russia wins eventually. There are risks either way. I propose being bold unlike what allies did in WWII. They were too slow and waited for Germany to grow in strength. But I might be wrong and Putin could nuke Estonia in retaliation. Risks abound
 
harms said:
Laporta = Putin confirmed.
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He is conscripting the young from la masia because the old ones couldn't keep up and were to expensive, the economy in shambles, circumvents sanctions to get Olmo to play, the stadium is a mess and he is playing in to another's stadium, and he only cares of eating canapes.

Checks out
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Guys stop with the hysteria about Trump and Hegseth suddenly changing everything. They're just saying the quiet part out loud.

Bidens' government for the past year has basically been on the same footing, with Jake Sullivan alluding multiple times that negotiations will need to happen sooner rather than later. The same shitty things Trump's admin is doing was basically where the Biden administration was heading towards anyway, just decorated with some insignificant aid packages here and there and dressed up nicely by not actually saying the quiet part out loud.
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Nah, Sullivan was always the low-IQ idiot pushing that boneheaded strategy of attrition, which ended up causing over a million casualties. I mean, obviously.

Any halfway smart person could’ve told these neocon knuckleheads that whatever tiny gains they thought they’d get from “attriting Russia” would be completely wiped out by pushing Russia and China closer together. And look where we are now—China, our actual competition, gets all the resources it needs (minerals, energy) plus a buddy with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Way to go, Sullivan, you absolute moron.

Now, Trump’s trying to pull off a new Sino-Soviet split. But let’s be real: the more Russian soldiers die in this proxy war, the harder it’s going to be for us to ever win them over. It’s a total mess, and it didn’t have to be this way.

PS—Glad you finally saw the light. Took you a few years and a few meltdowns, but hey, better late than never, right?


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AfonsoAlves said:
It really isn't.

Hell, my own cousin got shot trying to flee recruiters.
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Yeah my bad. Heard that from an AFU guy who hosts talks on twitter, probably missed the context and he was talking about his own company or something.

Speaking of context, how/why did your cousin get shot?
 
Suedesi said:
Nah, Sullivan was always the low-IQ idiot pushing that boneheaded strategy of attrition, which ended up causing over a million casualties. I mean, obviously.

Any halfway smart person could’ve told these neocon knuckleheads that whatever tiny gains they thought they’d get from “attriting Russia” would be completely wiped out by pushing Russia and China closer together. And look where we are now—China, our actual competition, gets all the resources it needs (minerals, energy) plus a buddy with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Way to go, Sullivan, you absolute moron.

Now, Trump’s trying to pull off a new Sino-Soviet split. But let’s be real: the more Russian soldiers die in this proxy war, the harder it’s going to be for us to ever win them over. It’s a total mess, and it didn’t have to be this way.

PS—Glad you finally saw the light. Took you a few years and a few meltdowns, but hey, better late than never, right?


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This has been my position since about early 2023.

Which is, "I would rather have US aid than not have US aid, but US aren't in it for altruism here. But the whole blame of the war is on Putin/Russia's shoulders."

It is completely far cry from your position of, "Feck the USA and NATO, it's all their fault."

So do me a favour and pipe the feck down.
 
Suedesi said:
Nah, Sullivan was always the low-IQ idiot pushing that boneheaded strategy of attrition, which ended up causing over a million casualties. I mean, obviously.

Any halfway smart person could’ve told these neocon knuckleheads that whatever tiny gains they thought they’d get from “attriting Russia” would be completely wiped out by pushing Russia and China closer together. And look where we are now—China, our actual competition, gets all the resources it needs (minerals, energy) plus a buddy with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Way to go, Sullivan, you absolute moron.

Now, Trump’s trying to pull off a new Sino-Soviet split. But let’s be real: the more Russian soldiers die in this proxy war, the harder it’s going to be for us to ever win them over. It’s a total mess, and it didn’t have to be this way.

PS—Glad you finally saw the light. Took you a few years and a few meltdowns, but hey, better late than never, right?


c580SOL.jpeg
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What has Trump done so far to try to pull off a Sino-Soviet split?
 
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Simbo said:
Yeah my bad. Heard that from an AFU guy who hosts talks on twitter, probably missed the context and he was talking about his own company or something.

Speaking of context, how/why did your cousin get shot?
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So my cousin is someone who shouldn't be in the armed forces. Hot-headed, rash, tunnel vision, unable to actually follow instructions or adhere to leadership/command. Anyway, he knew this, we knew this, his entire family knew this, but there was no "personality test" to test for suitability. It was pretty much grabbing eligible men off the streets.

Anyway, his family concoct a plan to get him into Poland and then from there seek refugee status and come live with me, in London, which wasn't the most thought out plan to be honest. Once he was in Poland it was pretty straight forward but this wasn't early 2022 anymore, by this point things had gotten a lot harder for men of military age to get to Poland.

So he drives along to the Polish border, gets caught about 5km from the Polish border and physically roughed up by some Ukrainian MP types, who obviously knew the mainstream routes of people trying to avoid the draft and enter Poland. Rather than just accept his fate, he resisted and from what I understand (at least from what some of his friends tell me), he ended up shoving away one of the MP's, tried to run and got shot in the back for his troubles.

The next part is the real fecked up part. We were told he was dead. For months our entire family was under the impression he was dead. The Ukrainian VSP literally gave us a death certificate and a full account of what happened.

Fast forward 10 months time, guy who was back in Kyiv who went school with him told us that my cousin was seen serving in a territorial defence brigade near Belarus. A lot of digging at this point, a lot of coping, some of us believed, some of us didn't, but ultimately a summary:

He was shot, survived, sent to a military hospital where he wasn't allowed to communicate with anyone, blackmailed when he recovered into joining the military or face prison time all the while not being allowed to tell us anything. Meanwhile the VSP just fabricated a fecking death certificate so we wouldn't try get him back.

Yeah, absolute yikes. This kind of corruption is incredibly common in Ukraine. I wasn't too close to him but last year I had a bit of a meltdown on this thread here against the Ukrainian government because of this :o
 
AfonsoAlves said:
So my cousin is someone who shouldn't be in the armed forces. Hot-headed, rash, tunnel vision, unable to actually follow instructions or adhere to leadership/command. Anyway, he knew this, we knew this, his entire family knew this, but there was no "personality test" to test for suitability. It was pretty much grabbing eligible men off the streets.

Anyway, his family concoct a plan to get him into Poland and then from there seek refugee status and come live with me, in London, which wasn't the most thought out plan to be honest. Once he was in Poland it was pretty straight forward but this wasn't early 2022 anymore, by this point things had gotten a lot harder for men of military age to get to Poland.

So he drives along to the Polish border, gets caught about 5km from the Polish border and physically roughed up by some Ukrainian MP types, who obviously knew the mainstream routes of people trying to avoid the draft and enter Poland. Rather than just accept his fate, he resisted and from what I understand (at least from what some of his friends tell me), he ended up shoving away one of the MP's, tried to run and got shot in the back for his troubles.

The next part is the real fecked up part. We were told he was dead. For months our entire family was under the impression he was dead. The Ukrainian VSP literally gave us a death certificate and a full account of what happened.

Fast forward 10 months time, guy who was back in Kyiv who went school with him told us that my cousin was seen serving in a territorial defence brigade near Belarus. A lot of digging at this point, a lot of coping, some of us believed, some of us didn't, but ultimately a summary:

He was shot, survived, sent to a military hospital where he wasn't allowed to communicate with anyone, blackmailed when he recovered into joining the military or face prison time all the while not being allowed to tell us anything. Meanwhile the VSP just fabricated a fecking death certificate so we wouldn't try get him back.

Yeah, absolute yikes. This kind of corruption is incredibly common in Ukraine. I wasn't too close to him but last year I had a bit of a meltdown on this thread here against the Ukrainian government because of this :o
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Jesus fecking Christ.

Are you at least allowed to communicate with him now?
 
AfonsoAlves said:
So my cousin is someone who shouldn't be in the armed forces. Hot-headed, rash, tunnel vision, unable to actually follow instructions or adhere to leadership/command. Anyway, he knew this, we knew this, his entire family knew this, but there was no "personality test" to test for suitability. It was pretty much grabbing eligible men off the streets.

Anyway, his family concoct a plan to get him into Poland and then from there seek refugee status and come live with me, in London, which wasn't the most thought out plan to be honest. Once he was in Poland it was pretty straight forward but this wasn't early 2022 anymore, by this point things had gotten a lot harder for men of military age to get to Poland.

So he drives along to the Polish border, gets caught about 5km from the Polish border and physically roughed up by some Ukrainian MP types, who obviously knew the mainstream routes of people trying to avoid the draft and enter Poland. Rather than just accept his fate, he resisted and from what I understand (at least from what some of his friends tell me), he ended up shoving away one of the MP's, tried to run and got shot in the back for his troubles.

The next part is the real fecked up part. We were told he was dead. For months our entire family was under the impression he was dead. The Ukrainian VSP literally gave us a death certificate and a full account of what happened.

Fast forward 10 months time, guy who was back in Kyiv who went school with him told us that my cousin was seen serving in a territorial defence brigade near Belarus. A lot of digging at this point, a lot of coping, some of us believed, some of us didn't, but ultimately a summary:

He was shot, survived, sent to a military hospital where he wasn't allowed to communicate with anyone, blackmailed when he recovered into joining the military or face prison time all the while not being allowed to tell us anything. Meanwhile the VSP just fabricated a fecking death certificate so we wouldn't try get him back.

Yeah, absolute yikes. This kind of corruption is incredibly common in Ukraine. I wasn't too close to him but last year I had a bit of a meltdown on this thread here against the Ukrainian government because of this :o
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Damn. I suppose nothing happened to the MP either. Its not dealing with stuff like this properly that actually has turned people away from Zelenskyy.

Have things improved on that front do you know?
 
Really does feel like Russia blowing a hole in the Chernobyl Sarcophagus should be bigger news...

 
Simbo said:
Damn. I suppose nothing happened to the MP either. Its not dealing with stuff like this properly that actually has turned people away from Zelenskyy.

Have things improved on that front do you know?
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What, the corruption?

It's better in that the most obvious previous form of corruption is gone - but its been replaced by Zelensky's own form of corruption, which probably whilst being a bit more palatable is still very obvious corruption.
 
harms said:
Jesus fecking Christ.

Are you at least allowed to communicate with him now?
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Yeah, after we confirmed he was alive my uncle raised a storm.

VSF are doing an investigation and, well...nobody has heard anything. This is the problem when you start giving MP's quota's and shit and they start trying to do anything to meet one more number on the enlistment table.
 
ExoduS said:
We at 90th minute of this war? What did the 4th ref say? Another month or two?
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The speculation that I’ve heard (that makes sense, Putin loves his symbolic holidays) said that Putin/Russia would like to announce it either on the Orthodox Easter (20th of April) or on the Victory Day (9th of May), further highlighting the non-existent links between this war and the WWII (or, more accurately, The Great Patriotic War).

Obviously we don’t know anything, not that it will even happen at this point.
 
I’d imagine that quite a few people close to Trump would love the deals that would present themselves with a peace agreement that favours Putin.
 
A New Spy Unit Is Leading Russia’s Shadow War Against the West
Russia’s spy services have a shadowy new unit taking aim at the West with covert attacks across Europe and elsewhere, Western intelligence officials say.

Known as the Department of Special Tasks, it is based in the Russian military-intelligence headquarters, a sprawling glass-and-steel complex on the outskirts of Moscow known as the aquarium. Its operations, which haven’t been previously reported, have included attempted killings, sabotage and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes.
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The SSD has at least three broad tasks, according to Western intelligence officials: carrying out killings and sabotage overseas, infiltrating Western companies and universities, and recruiting and training foreign agents. The department has been seeking to recruit agents from Ukraine, developing nations and countries seen as friendly to Russia, such as Serbia. The department also runs an elite special operations center, known as Senezh, where Russia trains some of its special forces.
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https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russia-spy-covert-attacks-8199e376?mod=hp_lead_pos2
 
The Firestarter said:
I dont think there would be Ukrainians there either .
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This is just unbelievable, if confirmed.

I’m sorry to bring my political views here, but no way that this would be happening under Biden, Harris or another republican president before Trump.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
This is just unbelievable, if confirmed.

I’m sorry to bring my political views here, but no way that this would be happening under Biden, Harris or another republican president before Trump.
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It's not confirmed. Russia and US said Ukraine would be there.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Good to hear.

Then, the question becomes what role they will play, if any.
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Ukraine not attending US-Russia talks in Saudi​

More now on those planned talks between Russia and the US, which are expected to take place in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.
A senior government source has told BBC News that Ukraine has not been invited and is not sending a team to those talks.
It follows a claim by US special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, that Kyiv would indeed be involved in negotiations.
It seems not at this early stage.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/crr0gngkjrvt?post=asset:ec7b1cd7-2c18-40ca-9696-0ff8f7c09d52#post

The BBC this PM.
 
Its like some wanabe 'strongman' type tactic where they are pretending Tump holds all the power and all the say in the future of this war. Others can only take part if they are invited...

The treasonous cnut can pretend to 'negotiate' with Russia all he wants. Fact of the matter is if Europe or Ukraine is not there, then they are not negotiating on peace in Ukraine.

Too much attention is given to Trump, not enough attention is given to Zelenskyy. He opens up a bit about the current situation in the below vid (with interviewer trying hard to get him to say something controversial), but his stance has never changed. NATO is and will always be a goal, but it is not feasible right now, so the only possible "security guarantee" is Ukraine's own military power/deterrence and the reduction of Russia's.

 
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Simbo said:
The treasonous cnut can pretend to 'negotiate' with Russia all he wants. Fact of the matter is if Europe or Ukraine is not there, then they are not negotiating on peace in Ukraine.
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I mean, I agree, but we have been here before. We surrendered the future of Eastern Europe for half a century in exchange for Stalin's USSR joining the UN. It is all very well countries like the UK talking the good fight, but I am very pessimistic.
 
Frosty said:
I mean, I agree, but we have been here before. We surrendered the future of Eastern Europe for half a century in exchange for Stalin's USSR joining the UN. It is all very well countries like the UK talking the good fight, but I am very pessimistic.
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It certainly does have a vibe of Molotov-Ribbentrop about it...
 
You do have to wonder if US are fed up with Europe not increasing their GDP on defence as they have been asked to do since before the war in ukraine began. The only countries to go above the 2-2.5% of GDP are those who share borders with Russia.

Shock tactics might be the only way to wake up European leaders and EU to get their fingers out and stop relying so heavily on US military to save them.
 
dinostar77 said:
You do have to wonder if US are fed up with Europe not increasing their GDP on defence as they have been asked to do since before the war in ukraine began. The only countries to go above the 2-2.5% of GDP are those who share borders with Russia.

Shock tactics might be the only way to wake up European leaders and EU to get their fingers out and stop relying so heavily on US military to save them.
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If that were all it was, I would be much less worried.
 
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